NFL – Industry Expert Consensus – Week One

NFL is back! Here we are ready to rock and roll with our NFL Industry Expert Consensus for Week One. Last night saw the Broncos knock around Cam Newton once again to pull out a victory behind their no-name quarterback. Plenty of options on the Consensus this week including several rookies that could provide some nice value plays. Also, a couple of potential fade options due to the likelihood of high ownership numbers.

As a reminder, the number in the parenthesis is the number of experts that chose that player so you have more context regarding the gaps between players and the tiers.

Quarterbacks

Highly Touted

• Dak Prescott (13x) – The beginning of the Dak Attack in Dallas starts Sunday afternoon. Should be highly owned in both formats. Possible fade.
• Matthew Stafford (9x) – Stafford has never really lived up to the hype though he’s brilliant in spurts. Should be interesting to watch how he fares without Megatron.
• Aaron Rodgers (7x) – Rodgers is a safe play every week. Facing an improved Jags defense but has Jordy Nelson back in the fold and a slimmed down Lacy at RB.

Recommended

• Derek Carr (6x) – Carr should be able to put up some big numbers against a bad Saints defense.
• Robert Griffin III (5x) – RG3 is intriguing. I took a flyer on him late in my season-long draft. I’d stay away from him until he proves himself though.
• Drew Brees (5x) – Could potentially be a shootout in New Orleans. As with Rodgers, Brees is a pretty safe bet most weeks.

Suggested

• Andrew Luck (4x) – It’s the return Andrew Luck in Indy. When healthy, he’s one of the better passers in the league.
• Jameis Winston (4x) – Winston will try to avoid the sophomore slump. He gets a juicy matchup against a sub-par Falcons defense to open the season.
• Russell Wilson (3x) – The Seahawks should light up the Dolphins on Sunday. Does that translate into less opportunities throwing the ball for Wilson?
• Brock Osweiler (3x) – Osweiler makes his debut as the Texans quarterback. He has one of the premier wideouts in the league in DeAndre Hopkins to throw to.
• Carson Wentz (3x) – Wentz will make his rookie debut against the Browns. The Browns defense is nothing to write home about but I have a hard time trusting a rookie FCS quarterback.
• Tyrod Taylor (3x) – Taylor blossomed a bit last season and the Ravens defense took a step back in 2015.

Running Backs

Highly Touted

• Spencer Ware (17x) – Ware was deemed the starter earlier in the week by Andy Reid. If he’s toting the rock 20+ times, he will put up solid numbers. Should have high ownership numbers in both formats. Possible fade.
• Lamar Miller (11x) – Miller moved to Houston in the offseason as he and Adrian Foster switched places. Has a knack for the big play and is great at catching the ball out of the backfield which could come in handy for Osweiler.
• Christine Michael (8x) – I know that Rawls is the supposed starter in Seattle but I love Michael. A bulldozer of a back that could get a lot of carries in a potential blowout game.
• Latavius Murray (7x) – The Raiders will be slinging the pigskin on Sunday but don’t rule out Murray. He topped the 1,000 yard mark last season and crossed the goalline 6 times.

Recommended

• Ezekiel Elliott (6x) – I’m surprised that Elliott wasn’t selected more times this week. He is on the high-priced range of RB targets so that could be a contributing factor. Should touch the ball a lot behind the best O-line in the NFL.
• James White (5x) – Tough to trust a New England running back. Especially one who only has 31 carries on his career.
• Ryan Mathews (5x) – Mathews played well down the stretch in 2015 after the DeMarco Murray experiment failed.

Wide Receivers

Highly Touted

• Julio Jones (11x) – Jones is a safe play every week. Not much after him on the Falcons depth chart at receiver though so expect him to be tightly covered all day.
• Marvin Jones, Jr. (11x) – Should see an increase in targets being the #2 wideout in Detroit this season.
• Amari Cooper (8x) – The Raiders will put up points in New Orleans and Cooper should be the recipient of a lot of targets.
• Tajae Sharpe (7x) – The rookie will see a big uptick in competition from Conference USA to the NFL.

Recommended

• Sammie Watkins (6x) – Watkins is electric. A big play waiting to happen.
• Donte Moncrief (5x) – No one is more happy to see Andrew Luck healthy than Moncrief.
• DeAndre Hopkins (5x) – Will be interesting to see the rapport between Hopkins and his new QB.
• Terrell Pryor (5x) – This is an interesting one. Until Josh Gordon returns from suspension, Pryor will see a lot of RG3 targets.

Suggested

• Odell Beckham, Jr. (4x) – Another surprise in how few times he was selected. Salary likely a lot to do with it. Should eat the Cowboys alive on Sunday afternoon.
• Michael Crabtree (4x) – Crabtree and Cooper should put up big numbers.
• Mike Evans (4x) – Can Evans take the next step in his development? Increased his receptions and yard totals last year but saw a significant drop in touchdown receptions with Winston at the helm.
• Willie Sneed (3x) – Sneed is a sneaky, cheap option. Cooks will be the focus of the Raiders secondary so Sneed could snag some big plays.
• TY Hilton (3x) – Hilton saw his numbers drop sans Luck in 2015.
• Allen Robinson (3x) – Robinson had a breakout year with 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. The Jaguars should continue to improve.
• Golden Tate (3x) – Tate is now the man in Detroit.
• Corey Coleman (3x) – I like Coleman. He was a beast in college and should be the go-to receiver for his fellow Baylor Bear.
• Jarvis Landry (3x) – Landry will be put on lockdown by Richard Sherman. I’d stay away from him.
• Will Fuller (3x) – Dealing with a bit of a sore hammy. Be sure to check the injury report prior to inserting the rookie into your lineup.

Tight Ends

Highly Touted

• Coby Fleener (7x) – A new team and a new playbook. I don’t expect a lot right out of the gate from Fleener.
• Dwayne Allen (7x) – Allen has been nursing an injury this preseason. Make sure he’s healthy before you start him.

Recommended

• Gary Barnidge (6x) – Barnidge was a beast at the TE position in 2015.
• Jared Cook (6x) – Cook is now with the Packers. A nice pickup by the team and the potential for big numbers from Cook.

Suggested

• Clive Walford (4x) – Walford heated up a bit as the season went along last year.
• Delanie Walker (3x) – Caught 94 passes and topped the 1,000 yard mark in 2015.
• Rob Gronkowski (3x) – Gronk is a safe play when healthy. Still some questions as to whether he will play on Sunday.
• Zach Ertz (3x) – Ertz had the season folks had been waiting on in 2015. He caught 75 balls but only found paydirt twice.
• Julius Thomas (3x) – Thomas was underutilized in his first season with the Jags. Expect them to focus on getting him the ball more in 2016.

Defense/Special Teams

Highly Touted

• Seattle Seahawks (8x) – Ryan Tannehill, the turnover machine, will get destroyed by these guys.

Recommended

• Houston Texans (5x) – Plenty of opportunities for turnovers with Jay Cutler coming to town.

Suggested

• Green Bay Packers (4x) – Packers take on an improved Jags offense. I’ll likely stay away from this one.
• Minnesota Vikings (3x) – Will Marcus Mariota suffer the sophomore slump. We’ll find out starting on Sunday as he faces one of the best defenses in the league.
• Kansas City Chiefs (3x) – The Chiefs put up the most DFS points for a defense in 2015.
• Tennessee Titans (3x) – The Titans will face the Vikings, who I don’t believe have settled on a starting QB. Of course, Adrian Peterson is who the really should worry about.

Let’s get off to a great start for 2016! Hope that you find the right combination to cash! Follow me on twitter @mbutlerok.