For this week’s European Tour preview, we’re at the Qatar Masters, which boasts a strong field following the Abu Dhabi Championship. We have some Ryder Cup players here (Martin Kaymer, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, and Andy Sullivan), along with other stars Alexander Noren, Bernd Wiesberger, and Joost Luiten.
This week’s venue is Doha Golf Club, which boasts a lot of the same characteristics (and course designer) that players saw last week in Abu Dhabi. This desert layout is a par-72 as well, which may give the bombers some opportunities to take advantage of the par-5s. There isn’t much rough to speak of, so driving accuracy takes a backseat to driving distance, and the emphasis will be placed on approach shots. Because it gets windy in Qatar, I’m going to take a long look at links players who have had success here. Branden Grace, a past winner here, has said that the grainier greens suit South African players well. That, plus the links-style correlation makes a lot of sense when you think about the firm, quick fairways players will see this week in Qatar.
Course history is important because this track has been used many times over the years, but I will also look for players who perform above average on links-style courses and in the wind. Two of my favorite resources for this data are Future of Fantasy (futureoffantasy.com) and 15th Club (15thclub.com).
To reinforce the correlation with links style courses, look at some of the Qatar Masters winners and their records at the Open Championship:
Ernie Els – 2002 and 2012 Open Champion
Paul Lawire – 1999 Open Champion
Henrik Stenson – 2016 Open Champion
Adam Scott – 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 10th at the Open Championship since 2012
Sergio Garcia – 10 career top-10s at the Open Championship, including two runner-ups
Thomas Bjorn – 2nd in 2000, 2nd in 2003, and 4th in 2011 at the Open Championship
Key Stats:
1) Driving Distance
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Tournament History
4) Links Course Specialists
Let’s look at my favorite plays this week:
The Favourites:
Bernd Wiesberger ($11,000) – I’m very bullish on Wiesberger this season, although I don’t think I’ll pay up for him much this week. But his form is good (4th last week), as is his course history (13th and 3rd the past two years) at Doha GC. I expect Wiesberger to win twice this year, contend in majors, and be a leader in the European Ryder Cup standings for the 2018 matches.
Martin Kaymer ($10,800) – The king of Abu Dhabi almost struck again, finishing 4th last week. Kaymer has won 5 events in the desert in his career, and could add to that total here in Qatar. He’s finished 9th here a couple of times, and seems to be finding his form these past few months. If Kaymer gets hot with the putter, he will dust this field.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($10,300) – A poor Sunday saw RCB ultimately finish 19th last week in Abu Dhabi, but he contended much of the week. If anyone in Europe is overdue for a win, it’s the Spaniard. He comes back to Qatar where he’s posted two 3rd place finishes and a runner-up finish last season. All in.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900) – Part of me wishes he didn’t win last week, so we could see lower ownership. But after being so close to titles last season, it was great to see Fleetwood break though. He’s fought injuries and swing issues after be touted as England’s next star a couple of years ago. After posting a 7th place finish here a year ago, I’ll strike again while the iron is hot on Fleetwood.
Jeung-Hun Wang ($9,000) – Those of you new to this column may not know him very well, but Jeung-Hun Wang is a force to be reckoned with. The China native won twice on Tour last season, and threatened a couple more times since. He’s a great ball-striker, and is cool and calm under pressure. After his 11th place finish in Abu Dhabi, he’s shown the ability to play golf well in the desert.
Pablo Larrazabal ($8,500) – Larrazabal is the European Tour version of Billy Horschel. Supremely talented, but streaky and tough to predict. I’ll piggy back on his 2nd place finish last week and hope for more of the same here in Qatar. He finished 13th here last season, and I expect him to build on that success this week.
George Coetzee ($8,200) – Coetzee burned me with a 60th place finish last week at one of his favorite events, but I’m going to be a sucker one more time. He comes to Qatar where he’s posted 7th, 12th, 5th, and 2nd the past four seasons. Coetzee has a propensity for low rounds, and I could see him firing one this week. Expect a solid top-15 from the South African this week.
Thomas Aiken ($8,100) – Aiken is a boring name, and goes overlooked most weeks – especially when we’re not in South Africa. At Doha GC, he’s made his last five cuts, with two top-6 finishes. In the past two events, he’s finished 13th and 5th and is off to a great start this season, and his consistent ball-striking should put him in contention to win this week.
Bradley Dredge ($7,400) – Dredge is one of my favorite plays of the week, at any price point. He started his season with a top-20 last week in Abu Dhabi, and now comes to a course where he finished 4th a year ago (with a handful of other top-30 finishes). My issue with Dredge is he’s not the best birdie-maker, but I think he’s a safe bet for a top-20 finish.
Gregory Bourdy ($7,400) – His results over the past six months have been very mediocre, but Bourdy’s price is still too cheap for me to ignore. Although he nearly missed the cut last week, he comes to Qatar where he’s finished 13th and 5th the past two seasons. If he can get hot with the putter, Bourdy is a threat to top-5 again this week.
Alejandro Canizares ($7,300) – The Spaniard is such a great scrambler and bunker player, that I always target him this time of year. His record here and in Abu Dhabi back up that theory. Canizares has posted 27th, 5th, and 8th here the last three seasons, and made the cut last week as well.
Benjamin Hebert ($7,100) – One of the most consistent players on Tour last season, I was always on the right side of Hebert. He posted a solid 29th place finish last week in Abu Dhabi, and comes to a course where he’s finished 20th and 10th the past two season. Safe for all formats, but has GPP upside.
Johan Carlsson ($7,000) – 13th, 13th, and 16th here the last three seasons. Clearly, there’s something about this layout in Qatar that fits Carlsson’s eye. He posted a middling finish last week in Abu Dhabi, but it was enough to get me on board this week. Carlsson is a great ball-striker and cut-maker, and seems to have top-10 upside this week.
Julien Quesne ($6,800) – Quesne made the cut last week in Abu Dhabi, although his finish was mediocre. He’s a player who typically costs around $7,500, so I love the discount we’re getting this week. He missed the cut here last season, but posted top-30s each of the previous two seasons.
Magnus Carlsson ($6,700) – The second of the Brothers Carlsson. Magnus MC here last season, but posted a 13th and 9th his previous two attempts. Carlsson had a nice showing in Abu Dhabi last weekend, where he shot 66 on Friday and 68 on Sunday.
Good luck this week!
Ryan
