The European Tour finally gets back on schedule after a month-long hiatus due to the World Golf Championships and The Masters. Many of Europe’s top players are still stateside, taking a vacation or playing at The Heritage, but many others are here in Morocco this week.
For this week’s European Tour preview, we’re at the Trophee Hassan II, one of Europe’s most interesting tournaments and venues. We have some a strong field that is headlined by defending champion Jeung-Hun Wang, Joost Luiten, Brandon Stone, Dean Burmester, Jordan Smith, and Victor Dubuisson. This event moved back to Royal Golf Dar Es Salam last season, but the course will play differently in 2017. It has been lengthened to over 7,600 yards, and will play as a par-73. I’m going to give a small bump to bombers just based on the scorecard, but last year’s leaderboard was littered with shorter, more accurate ball-strikers. The course is set in a forest, so accuracy off-the-tee is important this week. We don’t have much course history or statistics to draw upon at this venue, so just glance back at previous leaderboards and pick the best players in the best form heading into this week. Scores were not low at this venue last year, so finishing position points will be crucial this week on DraftKings.
Key Stats:
1) Greens in Regulation %
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Scrambling %
4) Recent Form
Let’s take a look at my favorite plays this week:
The Favourites:
Dean Burmester ($11,700) – Burmester is the hottest player in the field, winning the Tshwane Open in his last start after posting a handful of top-10 finishes. Burmester is one of the longest hitters on Tour, which should greatly help on this monster course, but he’s also been an elite putter so far this season. Hopefully he can keep his focus after getting that 1st Tour victory.
Jordan Smith ($10,400) – Smith is another Challenge Tour graduate who has flashed major game on the main tour already this season. He’s posted a 3rd, a 6th, and a handful of other top-25s while flashing an all-around consistent game. Smith seems to be lacking a second gear when it comes to closing out golf tournaments, but he continues to put himself in contention week in and week out. I predict a victory for Smith in the next month.
Romain Langasque ($9,000) – Langasque showed us that he could perform on any stage, when he made a run two seasons ago at The Masters. He graduated from the Challenge Tour last season and has already been contending for wins on the main tour. The young Frenchman hasn’t missed a cut this season, and has consistently been inside the top-20 recently. His putter has held him back in recent weeks, but hopefully the few weeks off have given him time to tidy up the flatstick.
The Value Mid-Tier:
James Morrison ($8,700) – Morrison is probably the hottest player in the field besides Dean Burmester. In his last four starts, Morrison has posted 23rd, 12th, 4th, and 6th place finishes. He’s ready to win. The Englishman had an awful end to last season, so it’s great to see him finding form again. He’s the type of player who can contend anywhere, and should win an event or two this season.
Alexander Bjork ($7,800) – Bjork is the ultimate cash game play this week, but also offers GPP upside. He’s yet to miss a cut in seven starts this season, and has flashed several high finishes: 17th at the Alfred Dunhill Championhip, 7th at the BMW SA Open, 13th in Abu Dhabi, and 5th at the Tshwane Open. His distance off-the-tee worries me a little, but he’s shown the ability to contend anywhere in the world. Bjork ranks 6th in scoring average on Tour this season. I predict a win is coming very soon for the Swede.
Thomas Detry ($7,300) – The young Belgian should be inspired by watching good friend Thomas Pieters make a run at last week’s Masters. Detry absolutely crushes the ball, and is just the type of birdie maker I’m targeting this week. He made his mark on Tour with a 3rd place finish in the Alfred Dunhill Championship, and continued that strong form in South Africa at the Tshwane Open. He’s had a month off to get his game in gear, and I think he’ll be one of the young rookies to get a win on the main tour this season.
Chris Hanson ($7,100) – As usual, Hanson will be a staple in my lineups this week. He’s always underpriced for a player who offers extreme consistency with top-10 upside. Hanson showed that upside last year, where he finished 5th at this event. In 2017, he’s made 6/7 cuts on Tour with four top-25 finishes. He’s a great ball-striker who just needs to stay out of trouble this week.
Nacho Elvira ($7,100) – Elvira finished 2nd here last season – losing in a playoff to Jeung-Hun Wang – so there should be many positive memories for him this week. He’s an absolute bomber off-the-tee, which will help on this 7,600 yard course. He played very well during the desert swing, posting two top-11 finishes in Qatar and Dubai. Since then, it’s been a struggle for the Spaniard, but he should be inspired by watching Sergio Garcia’s major triumph last week.
Low-End Plays:
Lucas Bjerregaard ($6,900) – Bjerregaard fits the mold of the player I’m targeting this week. He bombs it off the tee, is a good putter, and makes birdies. The young Dane shouldn’t be intimidated in this modest field, and I suspect he’ll be in the hunt on Sunday. He’s made five of his past six cuts, including an 11th place finish.
Lasse Jensen ($6,400) – Another young Dane is my deep sleeper of the week. Jensen flashed several high finishes last summer, but has been plagued by inconsistency. He seems to have found some form, making three of his past four cuts, including 3rd and 17th place finishes. Jensen finished 22nd here last season, so something about this tricky course fits his eye. He’s plenty long off the tee, and just has to avoid the big numbers.
Good luck this week!
Ryan
