Welcome back everyone! Tonight we have a jam-packed 14-game slate on tap in the MLB.
Not a lot of the top hitter’s parks are in play tonight either.
The Blue Jays host Dodgers’ rookie fireballer Kenta Maeda at Rogers Centre while the Yankees and Red Sox square off in their second series of the season at New YankeeS Stadium. Camden is in play also, but it’s not it’s usual self when it’s not hot and humid. Great American Ballpark could be a nice sleeper with two youthful pitchers on the mound. The White Sox also are at home at U.S. Cellular Field.
With lots of aces on the hill tonight and few hitter’s venues scheduled, tonight looks like it could be a low-scoring evening.
But as soon as I say that, the opposite will occur, right?
Anyway, there might be some weather issues in play in a couple of games, so make sure you check out the forecasts before you roster players, especially pitchers.
After a very weak week for BvP (a subsequent drop from the bronze medal atop the leader board is likely), we hope to at least play rescue to try and pull in a solid set of players for you to use.
Lastly, remember to check out dailybaseballdata.com. I get all BvP stats from them, so make sure you browse around and maybe even tell them what a great job they do (because they do!).
Jacoby Ellsbury – OF – Yankees – vs. Rick Porcello
BvP: 12-for-28, 2 2B, 4 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 2 SB
Analysis: While Porcello looks much improved this season, I am still not buying that he’s the ace of the Red Sox staff. Maybe I am letting the past affect me too much here, but if has turned a corner and keeps this up, then you might as well throw out Ellsbury’s stats against Porcello. I am not ready to do that yet and hope that Ellsbury can take aim at that short porch in right. Porcello has a .198 wOBA vs. lefties so far, but that’s highly unsustainable throughout the season. Ellsbury is heating up too with 6 hits in his last 3 games, including 3 doubles. He leads off for the flailing Yanks so also will get an extra AB or two against Porcello.
Carlos Santana – 1B – Indians – vs. Yordano Ventura
BvP: 6-for-18, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB
Analysis: While I’ve mentioned there aren’t a lot of hitter’s parks to take advantage of, there is a park or two that are favorable from certain sides of the plate. Progressive Field happens to be one of those stadiums and it favors lefties. Insert Rob Thomas’ best friend Carlos Santana against Super-Walks-A-Lot Yordano Ventura. Ventura is a classic home/road splits guy. Can light ’em up at home, then gets all wild and crazy away from Kauffman. Currently, he sports a 5.40 ERA in two road affairs and his peripherals aren’t in his favor either.
| K/9 | GB/FB | HR/9 | BABIP | ERA | xFIP | SIERA |
| 7.33 | 0.91 | 1 | 0.203 | 3.67 | 5.71 | 5.65 |
His ERA isn’t great already and he shot have an earned-run average much higher. Hopefully tonight is the night Santana and the crew can exploit Ventura’s weaknesses. Santana has 4 multi-hit games in his last 10 and has drawn 7 walks in his last four games! With power to left and patience at the plate, Santana is a SMOOTH pick.
Eric Hosmer – 1B – Royals – vs. Danny Salazar
BvP: 8-for-20, 4 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: For the same reasons I like Santana above vs. Ventura, I like Hosmer vs. Salazar. I mean, the EXACT same reasons minus all of the Santana/Rob Thomas music references. The only difference here is Salazar’s peripherals are much better than Ventura’s, but he is still pitching over his head up to this point in the season. Salazar also pitches much better at home than on the road. But if you know Salazar, like Ventura, he has the potential to implode! I don’t wish that on him tonight unless he gives it all up to the streaking Eric Hosmer (14 hits, 2 HRs in past 10 games).
Miguel Cabrera – 1B – Tigers – vs. Cole Hamels
BvP: 8-for-13, 2 2B, 1 3B, 4 RBI, 5 BB
Analysis: In DFS golf and NASCAR, a lot of people like to recommend plays because they are in good form. Well, I believe the same goes for baseball. MIggy provides solid proof that hot/cold streaks exist in baseball. Before April 24th, Miggy was mired in a hellacious slump, so he sat on the 24th. Since then, he’s got a 9-game hitting streak with 14 hits, 3 doubles and 2 HRs. Tonight he gets Cole Hamels, one of my own. Cabrera bombs lefty and righty pitching, especially at home. Hamels is not in good form at the moment with a low K/9 rate and 8 ERs in his past 3 contests. He’s walking more batters than usual and Miggy has 5 walks in 13 ABs. Cabrera is the perfect cash game/GPP play, should get you points no matter what.
Gregory Polanco – OF – Pirates – vs. Carlos Martinez
BvP: 8-for-13, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 4 BB, 1 SB
Analysis: Last time I recommended Gregory Polanco, a fellow DailyOverlay magistrate won a lot of money. That person wasn’t me, but I was glad Polanco, one of my favorite DFS baseball players, helped him score a bucket full of cash. I hope Polanco can pay dividends once again. Up against Carlos Martinez on the road, Polanco has a more difficult task than the last time I picked him (he was at Coors). Polanco has 12 hits in his last 10 and is up against Martinez who is prone to losing control and walking lots of batters, even at home where he is a much better pitcher. I love the BvP so far from Polanco. He’s 3 extra-base hits, lots of walks and a steal. He’s always a threat on the basepaths if he gets on, so that is one more facet of his game that can help you score lots of points.
Brandon Belt – 1B – Giants – vs. Chad Bettis
BvP: 7-for-12, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: Another hot corner infielder tonight, but it’s one that is always overlooked yet seems to always produce. Chad Bettis is an Average Joe. Brandon Belt is a lefty with tons of power. The only knock here is the venue, but when a Giants’ player is used to hitting in their home park, I don’t really care about whether if it leans to favor hitters more or pitchers more. Belt has the strength to send one into McCovey Cove if necessary. He will be the perfect GPP flyer. Lots of upside against a mediocre pitcher that will certainly go underowned due to the late start.
Lastly, here’s my third DraftKings lineup of the week using BvP. The first two have been awful, which is reflective of my picks of course. Lots of aces on the mound that I like and I am using both Syndergaard and Bumgarner tonight.
Narrative: I love Syndergaard tonight, but he’s in the best matchup with the top price. I expect his ownership to be very high. But to use elite pitching with most of the BvP bats, I needed to drop Syndergaard. Didn’t play Santana, Miggy or Hosmer here. I feel Belt is up against the weakest pitcher of the four and I wanted to stack him with Posey and Duffy who have had early success against Bettis as well. Since I didn’t get to play Santana, I went lefty at Progressive with Lindor and paired him with Aviles (who could be swapped should he not be in the lineup). Since I didn’t get to play Miggy, welcome Ian Kinsler at 2B against his former team. Ellsbury and Polanco make it in as well. Good luck!
