Entries by Stephen Monahan

MLB – Value Index – May 15 (Evening)

So the New Orleans Pelicans got the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft this year…

The Knicks lose…again.

And that’s all the basketball talk that fits here today, we have baseball DFS to consider.

Today we cover the evening slate for FanDuel, 8 games, one big stud on the mound.

Also, can we have a moment of silence for Vlad Guerrero, Jr.?

….

….

….

FINALLY! A double-dong performance from Vlad at suppressed ownership is an amazing thing!

And he won’t be featured today because he isn’t even playing on this slate.

So, about this slate, let’s get after it!

PITCHERS

Justin Verlander – at Detroit Tigers – $12,000

Analysis: He’s the best pitcher on the slate and faces one of the worst teams on the slate against RH pitching. Going up against his old stomping grounds, Verlander draws a Tigers’ offense that is 24th in the league in team wOBA and holds a 26.1% K rate. Verlander is money against both sides of the plate and strikes out lefties at a 13.08 K/9. Verlander doesn’t have the huge K rate against righties, No matter though, he’s got the biggest upside of the slate and best odds for a win and quality start for sure.

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MLB – Value Index – Tuesday, May 14

As long as new episodes of Game of Thrones exists, it’s hard for me to wrap my head around baseball for Mondays. But there’s only one more episode ever for #GOT, but it’s possible my overall sadness of its completion could spill over to many days of the week, and baseball might be put behind […]

MLB – Value Index – Wednesday, May 8 (Evening)

With my neck of the woods likely having to duck, dip and dodge severe weather all day, I am not sure how much DFS I will be partaking in Wednesday.

But it’s not Wednesday yet as I am writing this the night before, so like recommending DFS plays each slate, you can’t predict what the weather will do until it ‘s time for it to perform.

We can project outcomes and feel dead certain on a pitcher or hitter, but when you have to factor in everything that comes into play for outcomes to follow through, baseball DFS and roster construction can be difficult.

Sometimes we have to trust our instincts, play guys we hate as real-life baseball players, or fade one of the best pitcher or hitters and feel like the world is going to crumble on top of us for making that decision.

Today’s slates are split and for the Index for Wednesday, we will concentrate on the night slate. But if you are playing the early slate, just stack against Shelby Miller and be done with it. Be prepared for some weather updates in Colorado as it appears this game could be in trouble, according to the GOAT DFS weatherman Kevin Roth, who you should be following on Twitter by this point.

But the remaining 7 games look good on the surface as far as weather is concerned.

Remember, pricing below is for FanDuel. I have dropped the DraftKings pricing and salary percentages for now.

PITCHERS

Kyle Hendricks – vs. Miami Marlins – $8,200

Analysis: Maaaaaaaaaan….I hate playing Kyle Hendricks and I hate playing guys against the Marlins….but here we are. The Marlins are just awful though as they are 30th in team wOBA against RH pitching and are striking out 23.8% of the time. Not only are the Cubs one of the top offenses on the slate, they help raise Hendricks’ floor and upside with a potential win. The reason I hate Hendricks is he doesn’t pitch deep into games, so you have to worry about losing out on a QS on FanDuel. The good thing is we only have to worry about ERs taking away from Hendricks and honestly, runs are going to be hard to come by for the Marlins in this one. Hendricks doesn’t strike out RH bats very well and instead induces ground balls. Marlins have a lot of righties, but for this is a safety/cash game play here with upside for a QS and Win.

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MLB – Value Index – Tuesday, May 7

Of course, I talk up the Red Sox for Moday’s Index and they left brown stains in the bed.

That’s OK though because maybe John Means is actually a decent pitcher, but the Red Sox opponent on the hill tonight is no so much. Thus, we hop back aboard the train tonight, right?

Despite 13 games for tonight’s slate, I imagine the Red Sox, along with Coors, will see the highest ownership amongst cash games and tournament lineups.

There also are some solid pitching options, but I will be selecting a guy I like on the high end, who is an elite pitcher but is not priced at the top. More on him in just a few.

Remember, pricing is from FanDuel. And if you are interested in reading the whole clip, please feel free to subscribe to our monthly package.

PITCHERS

Noah Syndergaard – at San Diego Padres – $10,400

Analysis: The King of Asgard is priced under Stephen Strasburg and Jose Berrios today. That seems almost disrespectful. Syndergaard draws the Padres today, a team that is 25th in team wOBA and strikes out 25% of the time to RH pitching. Thor strikes out both sides of the plate at a 1 K/inning average or better, he limits hard contact, and has solid xFIPs all the way around. He also is the favorite as the Mets throw out a rookie pitcher. For Fan Duel, a 10K outing with a win and QS would smash his price tag for sure.

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MLB – Value Index – Monday, May 6

I suppose the Red Sox are going to be all right.

Boston whipped up on the White Sox over the weekend and has now won 7 of their last 10, yet are still one game under .500 and have a lot of work to do to catch the Rays in the AL East.

Maybe they will be OK, maybe this is just a small burst. But they are the defending champs and you shouldn’t count them out.

Baseball 2019 is just weird so far. Only into the second month of the season, the Twins, Rays and Cubs all lead their divisions and are tied for the best records in baseball, the Rangers are .500 (who saw that coming?) Despite all of their injuries, the Yankees are still 5 games over .500, the A’s are last in the AL West, the NL Central is stacked and the Padres are 3 games over .500.

Plenty of time for things to shake up two or three times over though, and now it’s time to talk shop.

We have 9 games on tonight’s slate and tons of stud pitchers to choose from. We have a lot of the best teams in baseball on this slate, too, so you are going to have to ride or die on some decisions. Hopefully, I can help you with some of those.

PITCHERS

Jhoulys Chacin – vs. Washington Nationals – $6,500/$6,900

Analysis: This one feels dirty. While Chacin has been a 7/11 for lefty dingers, he’s stingy against right-handed bats. Gone are Juan Soto and Matt Adams, there’s no Ryan Zimmerman, and no Trea Turner. This is a below average baseball team right now and its right-handed heavy. Washington is 26th in team wOBA vs. RH pitching, striking out 26% of the time. Chacin has struggled with lefties, but he’s eating up RH bats, allowing only a .316 wOBA and a 9.47 K/9.

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MLB – Value Index – Friday, March 3

Happy Friday all!

This intro is going to be short and sweet, saying just enough to get enough words down to transition to today’s DFS baseball options.

We have a 13-game slate with some solid pitching options to choose from. We also have a game in Coors, a game in Texas and a game in Miller Park, all stacked with fantasy goodness in their own right. But there won’t be a lot of value to choose from in those games.

Check out today’s options below, and those that get the freebies only, you have plenty of time to subscribe to our content and see the full material.

Shortest intro ever, so let’s tackle today’s slate!

PITCHERS

Chris Sale – at Chicago White Sox – $9,900/$9,900

Analysis: The White Sox can be trouble. They have some righties that can smash the baseball, but I am convinced that Sale is starting to return to form, and has received enough beatings to start this season. The White Sox are middle of the road against lefties and Sale has got his xFIP to come all the way down to 4.43 to righties this season.

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MLB – Value Index – Wednesday, May 1

And like N’Sync once said…’It’s gonna be, May.’

Yes, I literally just reference a boy band in my opening of a DFS baseball write-up.

But it’s not wrong. It’s officially May and one month of baseball is in the books.

I think April was full of surprises. No one expected Seattle to jump out to such a hot start (only to fall way back down to earth), the Rays came out of nowhere and the Yankees have a starting 9 on the injured list that could make the playoffs if they were a separate team.

We have seen lots of the top pitchers get blown up, and I am still not convinced there’s not something wrong with Chris Sale. Clayton Kershaw has come back to old form for now. Baseballs are apparently juiced, too. Christian Yelich is the new Barry Bonds, but only when playing at home in Miller Park. Pete Alonso and Austin Meadows look like they are headed for rookies of the year in both leagues.

And Bryce Harper is still the most overrated player in baseball.

Tonight we have a solid 9-game slate on tap and thank goodness we don’t have to play Pirates bats on the main slate. What a freaking disappointment they were last night.

There are a ton of stud pitchers to pay up for and there’s one stack I love today that allows you to play the big boys with some wiggle room. And that stack will be leveraged against a likely highly-owned value play at pitcher. The answers to those questions will be answered below, but only to those who are subs to our site. So, it might be worth that small investment to find out!

PITCHERS

Aaron Nola – vs. Detroit Tigers – $9,100/$9,000

Analysis: Well Mr. Velasquez did Vince Velasquez things and allowed one lefty bat to eat his lunch and ruin his day. Now we get the same scenario tonight, just with a better pitcher for the Phillies as a RH-heavy lineup faces a Aaron Nola, who eats righties for lunch, but can be exposed against lefties. The good thing is, again, the Tigers have very few lefties. One of those lefties ended Velasquez’s night, so if Nola can cruise through here, I love the upside he brings against a team that is still 25th in wOBA to righties with a .134 ISO and 25.8% K rate against right-handed pitching.

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MLB – Value Index – Tuesday, April 29

Sorry folks, Game of Thrones and Avengers: Endgame got my attention Sunday, so there’s was no hope for me to diligently put together a solid piece of content for Monday…

But there will be no spoilers here, so don’t fret.

I won’t tell you that in Game of Thrones, Season 8, Episode 3, that Dumbledore Calrissian cast the ring into the fires of Mordor…(if you get that reference, we might could be friends).

Anyway, we are nearing the end of the first month of the 2019 baseball season, so I hope we all can end it with a bang.

Because in May, things will most absolutely change. It gets warmer, roofs close, and these juiced balls will take flight even more.

We have a full 15-game slate to dive through tonight. Let’s remember that pricing is in a FanDuel/DraftKings format.

There are tons of studs and tons of duds at the pitching position, so who are we going to pick on toda

PITCHERS

Vince Velasquez – vs. Detroit Tigers – $8,200/$8,700

Analysis: There are a ton of stud pitchers to pay up for, but Velasquez is one of the better options in the mid-tier and might be the value pitcher of the day when his score is settled. He and the Phillies take on the Detroit Tigers at home. Velasquez has prominently been a guy who struggles with lefties. The good thing for him is he is historically great against RH bats. The Tigers have a lot of right-handed bats. Detroit is 25th in wOBA against righties, are 29th in ISO and strikeout 25.8% of the time. Velasquez owns a .272 wOBA against RH bats this season, along with a 9.22 K/9 rate. Velasquez has been tough on lefties this season, too, owning a 3.95 xFIP and .274 wOBA.

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MLB – Value Index – Friday, April 26

Kyler Murray is an Arizona Cardinal.

Daniel Jones is a Giant

Dwayne Haskins is a Redskin (weird sentence there…).

And the first round of the NFL Draft is complete.

It was a lackluster night, not a lot of big names to be drafted after Kyler Murray. Defense and offensive linemen were the stars of the show.

I would say today’s pitching options for the 15-game MLB slate has more firepower than the NFL Draft.

And there are a ton of pitching options to choose from.

ALSO, tonight is slated to be the long-awaited debut of Vladamir Guerrero, Jr. at home against the A’s. Think he makes tonight’s list?

You’re damn right.

So much so, that it leaves a few options to stack against. There’s one pitcher who I love stacking against and if you subscribe to our full/premium content, you will see all of the Index’s options against that pitcher!

Remember, pricing is based on FanDuel, and while today’s edition doesn’t have a lot of cheap prices, there’s one pitcher worth stacking against and it wouldn’t matter at all what bats were priced, I would be playing them.

PITCHERS

Jerad Eickoff – Philadelphia Phillies – vs. Miami Marlins – $7,800

Analysis: If I chose not to pay up for pitching, Eickhoff, on FanDuel, would be where I would stop. The Marlins are 27th in wOBA and striking out at a 27% clip. Eickhoff has struggled against lefties in his career, but has been stiff against righties. The Marlins won’t have a lot of lefties to throw at Eickhoff. He’s only pitched two games this season, but he has strike outs of 8 and 6 against the Rockies IN Coors and the New York Mets, scoring 30 FD points in each start so far. Hopefully he can increase his pitch count tonight and pitch deeper into the game.

Justus Sheffield – Seattle Mariners – vs. Texas Rangers – $4,000 – DK Only

Analysis: Unless he becomes available on FanDuel, this is a DK-only play and only because he’s $4K and the projected long reliever for the Mariners against the Texas Rangers. Sheffield is one of the better pitching prospects out there. They are using him to limit rookie Yusei Kikuchi’s workload. Kikuchi will be the opener, but Sheffield is expected to handle the bulk of the innings. As a Rangers fan, despite how good or bad a pitcher might be coming up, they perenially can’t figure guys out. They struggle with pitchers they have never seen/faced before in person. While that is negative homer logic, Sheffield does possess the strikeout potential and completed innings potential to totally blow his price tag out of the water.

HITTERS

Vladamir Guerrero, Jr. – 3B – Toronto Blue Jays – $3,200

Analysis: Vlad is the real deal and this is first game of the season and will be in front of the home crowd. His 3B eligibility certainly will make it tough to play him considering the other great options, but at least you can fit him in a utility spot if you wish. Vlad crushes the ball and gets his first crack at the majors against A’s starter Mike Fiers, a career reverse-splits pitcher. Vlad bats from the right side and Fiers, since 2018, is allowing a .340 wOBA with a 38% hard contact rate and 1.92 HR/9 rate to right-handed bats. Debut, home dome, reverse-splits pitcher, big big bat. I’ll take all of those things in tonight’s matchup.

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MLB – Value Index – Wednesday, April 24

The Value Index is back at it, folks. I missed Tuesday, so we will tackle this evening slate for DFS. We have 7 games on the main evening slate. We don’t have to worry about Coors either. You can get your fill with that setting in the early slate. Tonight we have one stud pitcher […]

MLB – Value Index – Monday, April 22

Hard to believe we are coming up on the NFL Draft and the end of the first month of the baseball season.

Which means summer is drawing closer, the school year is starting wind down and football season also is that much closer to our lives.

But I’ve said too much about football, it’s still early.

But is it too early to call Christian Yelich the best hitter in baseball or the AL MVP?

He has 13 home runs and we still have more than a week left of April.

Now, ALL of those home runs have come in Miller Park and he has just two RBIs away from Miller, so that begs the question for tonight’s 10-game slate….

Do you play Christian Yelich?

He’s also facing the Cardinals and I can’t tell you (but it’s a lot) how many home runs he has against the Cardinals already this season.

I will likely be fading him again because I just can’t chase once I am behind.

I like to be in front of things as much as possible and I am hopeful to be in front of a certain pitcher tonight, who also will be a big question on everyone’s minds.

But more on that later.

But first, remember to view today’s content in full, please check out our subscription details. You get just a taste though, and hope it’s enough for you to indulge.

Secondly, remember that pricing is FanDuel/DraftKings with salary cap percentages following for each, in that same order.

Now, let’s get down to business!

PITCHERS

Chris Sale – vs. Detroit Tigers – $8,400/$8,600 – 24%/26% – 36.8%

Analysis: Somehow we are the point with Chris Sale where he have to question whether we play him or not. He’s 0-4 with an 8.50 ERA with a 14:5 K/BB ratio. Reports indicate his velocity was reaching normal capacity in his last start, so perhaps things are finally starting to click for Chris Sale, who I am sure lots of people are selling at this point in the season already. But I’m not, even though he’s striking out RH bats at less than 7 K/9 right now and faces a RH-heavy team in the Detroit Tigers IN Fenway. I mean, if he gets lit up tonight by the team that’s 29th in wOBA against lefties, then I will find it difficult to recommend him for awhile, even if his price does get cheaper and cheaper. I figure if he does, a stint on the IL is far more likely than his price dipping to under $8K.

Chris Bassitt – vs. Texas Rangers – $6,000/$6,800 – 17.1%/23.2% – 33.2%

Analysis: The Rangers roughed up the Astros this weekend and are surging right now. But they get away from home turf and move into a big pitcher’s park. The Rangers are 4th in wOBA against RH pitching this season, but are also striking out at a 24% clip. Bassitt is making his first start of the season, but he limited a lot of damage in his appearances over the years, as lefties had a .263 wOBA and righties a .300 wOBA against him in 2018 while he struck out lefties at an 8.49 K/9 and righties at a 7.03 K/9. He’s certainly a punt play that could get you a QS and a win with 5 or 6 Ks and smash value.

HITTERS

Ryan Zimmerman – 1B – Washington Nationals – $3,400/$4,300 – 9.7%/8.6%

Analysis: Out of all the Coors bats on the slate, Zimmerman’s is the one that sticks out against lefty Tyler Anderson, who is allegedly coming off of the IL to pitch Monday’s game. Against lefties this season, Zimmerman owns a .387 wOBA in limited ABs while Anderson, in limited action himself, is allowing a .402 wOBA with a 0.00 HR/9 rate this season to righties. Having to pitch in Coors isn’t going to help those numbers I don’t believe.

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