Entries by Stephen Monahan

CFB – Power 5 – Week 4 (Late)

This edition of the Power 5 will focus on Saturday’s evening main slate on DraftKings.

This week’s slate of college football DFS features just 7 games, but there are some decent tournaments out there where you can get your fix and have a chance a decent wad of dough.

It’s pretty obvious on this slate what the chalk game will be. Texas and Oklahoma State, a Big 12 rivalry/showdown with a ridiculous 74 total, the highest of the slate by a mile.

Who we fit around this game will be important as these players also are the highest-priced of the slate. Texas has been destroyed through the air this season and Oklahoma State has one of the best wide receivers in the game on their side. Oklahoma State hasn’t played much of anyone and has shown weaknesses in their defense against the rush.

More on this game is to come for sure, that’s foreshadowing folks.

Good luck in Week 4!

D’Andre Swift – RB – Georgia – $8,200

Analysis: Notre Dame and Georgia looks like a great matchup on paper, but I think Georgia is going to manhandle the Irish. One way the Bulldogs can bulldoze their fellow ranked opponent is utilizing their run game with D’Andre Swift. The Irish are getting pummeled for 230.5 yards per game on the ground. Swift, despite limited action due to blowouts, is averaging a whopping 9.35 yards per carry and he can catch passes out of the backfield if necessary. The Bulldogs are two touchdown favorites at home, and once they are up comfortably, they can pad Swift’s stats and clean the clock.

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CFB – Power 5 – Week 4 (Early)

Welcome to Week 4 of the college football regular season, and we are 1/4 of the way through the year already.

This week’s early slate has lots of stud options up top at QB and WR, so my preface here is that I will be alternating these top studs in and out of my lineups for this slate.

My quarterbacks this week will be Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow and Kelly Bryant, and then whomever is starting for Louisville (Jawon Pass or Malik Cunningham).

Running backs I like are listed below.

Stud wide receivers I will have exposure to in and out of lineups will be Jerry Jeudy, Justin Jefferson and Terrance Marshall Jr.

So I say all of this because outside of the Louisville QBs, they are all the highest-priced at their positions and since there are so many of them that are in premier spots, I can’t possibly choose between them all and you don’t need my assistance to know they are stellar plays.

I want to provide you with options that you can use to build around those guys this week. And that’s where we will put our Power 5 focus. So good luck and don’t forget to check out the Power 5 for Saturday’s evening slate as well.

Quez Watkins – WR – Southern Miss – $4,800

Analysis: So I didn’t know much about Southern Miss prior to this slate because I haven’t needed a reason. But Quez Watkins is a guy I will be looking at this week. Yes, he faces Alabama, but here’s why I like him outside of his price. He just returned after missing the first two games and lit up Troy for 11 catches, 200+ yards and 2 scores. While his opposition was soft, the production is hard to ignore. And the game script here favors Watkins, even in a blowout. Not only should he see a full game action to help him continue getting in game shape, he should see the volume and targets. And at his price, even a mediocre game shouldn’t eat your lineups. It’s hard to stomach this thought, I know, but all it would take is one big play to pay off the salary at likely low ownership.

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CFB – Power 5 – Week 3 (Early)

If you have been a follower/subscriber of DailyOverlay.com for some time, and you follow my work, you know I try to dabble in a lot of different sports.

And I started splitting football duties this past week between college football and Week 1 of the NFL. But I feel like that spreads me super thin with the time I have available at home these days with one kid and another on the way shortly.

I want to make sure I am putting out quality and putting that effort into making something really good instead of making two things just OK.

So what I am trying to say is that I will be concentrating solely on college football from here on out for us, and Matt, Brad and Greg, the masters of the universe, will handle all of our NFL content.

That means an early and late slate write up for the Power Five each week but also means I have to put what little money I have, where my mouth is.

So let’s get on with today’s Power Five for the early slate, which features 12 games of college football action. Remember, the free version gets you access to one pick while subscribers or free trial members get access to the rest of the product.

Good luck!

Jerry Jeudy – WR – Alabama – $8,000

Analysis: The Judge cracks the Power 5 for the first time this season. And if I have to explain the Judge Jeudy reference, well, maybe you are a little sheltered. But Jeudy and this Alabama offense get their first taste of real action (loosely speaking) as they travel to South Carolina as 25-point favorites. The Gamecocks also have had a taste of real action, losing to Carolina rival UNC in their opener. They will be without their starting quarterback, to boot. So ‘Bama has faced Bucknell Junior College and Tribal Warrior State University (these are made up schools by the way) and in each of those games, which have been blowouts, Bama’s first-team offense has thrown 31 and 24 passes. That’s a lot for a team that plays about a half of football every time out. So I think that’s the floor here with upside for more should this game be close in the second half for any reason. What does that mean for Jeudy? Far more usage and volume for one of, if not THE, best receiver in the country. In those two blowouts, he has 18 catches for 240 yards and 4 TDs. His price has come down from $8,300 in Week 1 to $8,000. Jeudy is going to be the first person in my early slate lineups today.

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NFL – Value Index- Week 1

I know what it felt like for teenage girls attending N’Sync and Backstreet Boys concerts in the late 90s.

Because how I feel about Week 1 of the NFL season, I imagine, is about the same. Bright-eyed, bushy tailed and I want to scream and jump up and down with excitement…maybe even cry a little.

Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season is here and we all get to see how all the preseason hub plays out. Honestly, I can’t remember so much action from teams after the cut line leading up to the first week of the season.

After teams has to narrow their rosters to 53, dominoes started to fall, trades were made and plenty of players switched teams.

There’s lots of drama still to unfold as we kickoff on Sunday. How much will Zeke play? Will Melvin Gordon get traded? Is Josh Gordon going to play a full game? Will Duke Johnson get a full workload? Will LeSean McCoy get a full workload?  Will the Cardinals and the new Air Raid attack hang a 50 burger on the Lions? Will the Lions hang a 50-burger on the Cardinals because their defense is so bad? Is Jimmy G the real deal? Will Baker and Odell fly? Will Dalvin Cook be a 3-down back? Will Leonard Fournette be a 3-down back? Will Le’Veon Bell receive a full workload? Will Antonio Brown figure out Helmet Gate?

Well, you get the picture…

There’s probably 6-7 teams on this week’s main slate that I want to target, maybe even more, but we can’t play them all. There’s one game stack I really love that I am unsure how people will treat it, and there’s plenty of other spots where players are in prime positions.

It’s Week 1, folks! Let’s enjoy this ride while it lasts because we all know that it FLIES BY QUICKLY!

Before we know it, Week 8 will be here, then the fantasy playoffs, then Christmas, then the Super Bowl…ENJOY THE SEASON!

Now, let’s break down the MF’er with today’s value plays (which it’s Week 1, so pricing if way down on everyone), and try to ship some dough.

QUARTERBACKS

Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals – $5,600

Analysis: The Cardinals are either going to burn me right out of the gate, or hopefully make me some money and kick off my best balls in the best fashion. The preseason was NOTHING like what this team will roll out Sunday in their actual dress rehearsal. I imagine there will be struggles, and maybe the Lions slow the pace down, but knowing Kingsbury as a former Texas Tech quarterback, managing the Air Raid offense as a head coach at Tech, and understanding Kyler Murray’s strengths and weaknesses, I want to be ahead of this ship. Kingsbury will utilize all of his available receivers, get Murray moving out of the pocket, have 4 and 5-wide sets and create space in the middle of the field. Murray has rushing upside that elevates his floor, and has one of the best running backs in football at his disposal. I am not worried about that garbage everyone saw in the preseason. It was about as plain as a Nilla Wafer.

Jimmy Garoppolo – San Francisco 49ers – $5,800

Analysis: The only other QB I am considering this week is Jimmy G. The 49ers travel to Tampa Bay, so it is one of the West to East coast trips, but the game isn’t at noon and they haven’t played a meaningful game all year. With that, I am not worried about that travel narrative at all. The 49ers and Kyle Shanahan draw the Tampa Bay Bucs, who should have one of the worst defenses, one of the more potent offenses and provide some shootout potential every week. Jimmy G will have two solid pass catching RBs, George Kittle, and a host of receivers to find down the field from speedster Marquise Goodwin to rookie stud Deebo Samuel to Dante Pettis, who has had his coach up his ass all preseason. Everyone loved Jimmy G last year before an injury ended his season. So what’s changed for 2019?

RUNNING BACKS

Dalvin Cook – Minnesota Vikings – $6,000

Analysis: You won’t find a chalkier RB this week than Dalvin Cook. He’s been talked up by just about everyone this summer and this preseason. It’s hard to deny, but he is likely a fade for me in the Milly Maker, but a definite cash game staple. He should have a 3-down role, is up against the Atlanta Falcons, who have been a sieve to pass-catching backs for multiple years in a row, and the Vikings are a fairly large favorite. With Cook’s price and all the talk, look for him to have the most exposure by the masses.

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CFB – Power 5 – Week 2 (Early)

On your mark…

Get set…

Thwomp!

That’s the sound of your face stumbling out of the gates in Week 1 of the 2019 College Football season.

By “you,” I mean me.

I stumbled out of the gates in Week 1 of the 2019 College Football season.

So much for that cheap Alabama running back or that Ole Miss/Memphis stack.

At least I got Patrick Taylor Jr. correct, but so did a lot of people. I did say he was my favorite play overall and I was 100% in on him.

It’s just too bad the rest of my team took a dump on my chest, specifically players from Ole Miss and Memphis.

Week 2 is going to be here quickly, and with the NFL debuting this week, it’s going to be one awesomely, fun football ride!

For everyone reading, the Power 5 will focus on five of my top plays for the upcoming DFS slate. We will mostly focus on the early slates for this write up and that is the case here. So below are my top five plays, in any order and at any position. I might have 2 QBs, 2 RBs and a WR, or 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, or 3 RBs, 2 WRs or in rare events, 4 or 5 RBs or WRs.

As I write this, it looks like UCLA’s Joshua Kelley and Theo Howard practiced in full Monday. Kelley burned a lot of lineups (including mine) by dressing out and not playing. For me, there’s lots riding on Kelley playing and not playing, so I am going to avoid UCLA altogether and will be monitoring their status before kickoff. If Kelley goes, I am in. If he doesn’t then Demetric Felton (tabbed a WR on DK) will get many looks from me at a cheap price and not being in the right position. But overall, just staying away from all of them for this week’s write up. Just know, you might see a UCLA player or two in my lineups on Saturday.

Good luck in Week 2 and will see you (hopefully) near the top of the CFB DFS standings!

1. Mekhi Sargeant – RB – Iowa – $6,200

Analysis: So UMASS….put it to Rutgers a bit. Then Rutgers blew out the Minutemen. UMASS amassed 186 rushing yards against the Scarlet Knights. Now Rutgers actually gets a tough test in the Iowa Hawkeyes, a Big 10 rumbler who championed Mekhi Sargeant in its first tumble versus Miami (OH). Iowa rolled easily, so Sargeant got just 14 carries, but he turned them into 91 yards and a score. But what’s encouraging are the 4 catches for 65 yards on 5 targets. We want those dual-threat running backs in our DFS lineups, and we get one here at a reasonable price. The Hawkeyes have a knack for pulling the rug out from under us in the past with their RB rotations, but Sargeant is the guy as we know it. And yes, we can maybe expect a lighter workload in a blowout, but hopefully Sargeant is part of the reason for the blowout.

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CFB – Power Five – Week 1 (Early)

For what is a niche DFS sport, it’s surprising and disappointing DraftKings and FanDuel don’t offer bigger contests in college football.

I miss the days before CFB DFS was canned when $3 gave you a shot at $10K or sometimes more. But I guess those days are gone.

Anyway, we have to enjoy college football daily fantasy while it lasts because you just never know when it will go away again!

So in the past, the Power Five or the Value Index series has featured just bunch of picks I really like. So for this year, I am not going to change that format, but I am going to stick to my favorite five plays of the slate.

I want to do this to hold myself accountable and to better my roster selection while also providing some helpful content for you to build your lineups with. I also want to challenge for the 2019 Daily Overlay Expert Championship (unofficial title, only a made-up, personal name I coined).

Anyway, today we are focusing on the early slate for Saturday’s Week 1 action. Bama is on this slate and there are some other notable matchups that will be entertaining to watch, but not sure they will be DFS viable.

As you will see below, there’s one game I love on this slate and clearly, stacking this game will be where I go in my lineups this week.

For pricing and the slate, we use DraftKings for the Power Five. Since we kicking off the season, I will offering 80 percent of this first main slate write up for any and all. But that last selection, you will have to be a subscriber to view. If it eats you up inside to not see that last play, by all means sign up or check out our 7-day free trial which can be found on the home page.

Good luck and enjoy that football is back!

Matt Corral – QB – Ole Miss – $7,200

Analysis: You will see a theme very quickly in this week’s 5 plays. Here we have freshman QB Matt Corral who takes over for Jordan Ta’amu at the helm of the Ole Miss offense. The Rebels are coming off a two-year suspension from the postseason for recruiting violations. And this year they have one of the best offensive minds in college football, Rich Rodriguez, manning this offense. He has made QBs such as Denard Robinson Khalil Tate become dual-threat nightmares for defenses. Corral is one of those types of QBs. He has a big hill to climb from an offense that had Ta’Amu, DK Metcalf, AJ Brown and DeMarkus Lodge, so he will be throwing to a host of young receivers and relying on a couple of talented running backs to help things hum. This game has the highest O/U on the board with one of the lightest spreads, two things I like to see from Vegas. Memphis has been one of the worst defenses in college football in the past two years, and it appears this season isn’t going to be much better. Corral is young, but he’s still the 10th-most expensive quarterback on the slate, so there’s value here and you can load up on this game with him and another QB in the Super Flex.

Patrick Taylor Jr. – RB – Memphis – $8,500

Analysis: Overall, Patrick Taylor is my favorite play on the board. He was a 1,000-yard rusher last season despite fighting for playing time with Darrell Henderson and Tony Pollard, who have both graduated and are in the NFL. Now he gets this backfield to himself, in theory. And I mentioned above how bad Memphis is on defense, Ole Miss might be worse this year. They have so much youth on both sides of the ball, they might be at the top of college football for freshman starting and/or receiving playing time this season. Anyway, Taylor should be the focal point in this offense, commanding carries and hopefully a few receptions out of the backfield. He’s the most expensive RB on the slate, but I don’t care. He could be in for a monster week.

Keilan Robinson – RB – Alabama – $3,000

Analysis: I can’t tell you any time I have ever rostered an Alabama running back outside of a Showdown slate. But we are in that boat this week and I will be going down with the ship should it sink. Keilan Robinson is a true freshman that is likely to get the start and play for at least a half against Duke this week. The top-two options at RB in this offense are being disciplined and are to miss time from this game, most likely a half and could be more should the Tide be well ahead in the second half. And so here we have Robinson, at minimum salary in one of CFB’s best offenses and we get to just throw him in without much risk. I am not even concerned about the opponent. Bama is Bama and if Robinson plays significantly, he will smash this price tag.

Damonte Coxie – WR – Memphis – $7,800

Analysis: I certainly want to play value at WR this week. Ohio State and some Bama guys could go off at reasonable price tags, despite not likely playing full games. Coxie is the leading receiver from the 2018 season and has No. 1 duties to himself. While Memphis will be establishing the run at times, Coxie will out there running routes and getting open for QB Brady White. Coxie had more than 1,000 yards and 7 touchdowns receiving last season and is cheaper than the top WR price on this slate, and he will likely not play a full game.

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CFB – Power Five – Thursday, Aug. 29

Football has returned! It is glorious and for the next several months, the greatest sport in the world tugs at our heartstrings and has us checking our fantasy lineups everywhere. This week we get the return of college football, starting with a small, but great, 6-game slate. Then Week 1 gets us rocking and rolling […]

MLB – Value Index – Tuesday, Aug. 20

Welp, I hope you didn’t play Brendan McKay….

I sure as hell did, and it’s a reminder that I am so ready for football season…

Anyway, good luck on today’s large slate. It’s a full one!

Below are the tables for xFIP for today’s probable starters and wOBA tables for all qualified hitters versus the handedness of their opposing starting pitcher.

There’s a pitcher or two that hasn’t been named as of this publication.

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Joseph Palumbo – 9.81
2. Sean Reid-Foley – 7.17
3. Reynaldo Lopez – 6.21
4. Eliser Hernandez – 6.04
5. Tyler Beede – 5.67
6. Cal Quantrill – 5.48
7. Spencer Turnbull – 5.38
8. Alex Young – 5.34
9. Michael Wacha – 5.22
10. Marco Gonzales – 5.22
11. Brian Johnson – 5.13
12. Brad Keller – 5.03

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Brian Johnson – 6.50
2. Aaron Sanchez – 5.59
3. Joseph Palumbo – 5.40
4. Kyle Freeland – 5.39
5. Sean Reid-Foley – 5.36
6. Alex Young – 5.03
7. Michael Wacha – 4.92
8. Marco Gonzales – 4.83
9. Homer Bailey – 4.83

Hitter wOBA vs. LH

1. Mike Trout – Angels – .416
2. Ketel Marte – Diamondbacks – .414
3. Nolan Arenado – Rockies – .413
4. Carlos Santana – Indians – .412
5. Rhys Hoskins – Phillies – .411
6. Eduardo Escobar – Diamondbacks – .398
7. Ian Desmond – Rockies – .394
8. Tommy Pham – Rays – .394
9. Charlie Blackmon – Rockies – .390
10. Jean Segura – Phillies – .383

Hitter wOBA vs. RH

1. Cody Bellinger – Dodgers – .433
2. Rafael Devers – Red Sox – .423
3. Freddie Freeman – Braves – .419
4. Bryan Reynolds – Pirates – .414
5. Juan Soto – Nationals – .411
6. Josh Bell – Pirates – .408
7. Anthony Rendon – Nationals – .405
8. Michael Brantley – Astros – .404
9. Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox – .402
10. Anthony Rizzo – Cubs – .401

PITCHERS

Dylan Bundy – vs. Kansas City Royals – $6,800

Analysis: Soooo Dylan Bundy…he’s a cheap option to stack your lineups with big bats on FanDuel. The Royals are 21st in team wOBA and strike out 20% of the time to righties. Bundy is striking out right-handed bats at an elite rate, whiffing them at 11.00 K/9. He’s striking out lefties at a 7.70 K/9.

HITTERS

Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Philadelphia Phillies – $3,800

Analysis: There’s isn’t a better value vs. matchup on the board for me today than Rhys Hoskins. The lefty destroyer draws the worst lefty on the board in Brian Johnson. As a righty in Fenway, this is just a juicy matchup for Hoskins, who owns a .411 wOBA with a .275 ISO vs. southpaws. As for Johnson, he’s been awful against righties as usual, allowing a .474 wOBA with a 43% hard hit rate and a 2.57 HR/9.

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MLB – Value Index – Monday, Aug. 19

Happy Edwin Jackson Day everyone!

The Astros get to tee up on the worst pitcher in baseball and trying to figure out which Astros to build your team around on FanDuel will be quite the challenge. I want to play all of the big boys, but on FanDuel you can only stack four.

So that’s where I will be going today. The rest of the field will be filled up by some variation of the players listed in today’s Value Index, which by the way, will be ending after this week.

We have college football, NFL football and I have a second kiddo on the way and my wife has been having some issues in the past week or two, so my focus for a daily sport such as baseball just hasn’t been there consistently.

So I will try to get one of these out every day this week to end on a high note, and then start looking for college football content starting in a little over a week! So glad football is coming back soon.

Today we have 9 games to build our lineups around, and it’s clear who the top stacks will be today. Good luck!

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Chi Chi Gonzalez – 7.39
2. Joe Ross – 6.99
3. Zach Davies – 6.01
4. Eric Lauer – 5.78
5. Edwin Jackson – 5.77
6. Trevor Williams – 5.49
7. Dillon Peters – 5.24
8. Dakota Hudson – 5.22
9. Ivan Nova – 5.21
10. Marco Gonzales – 5.21

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Edwin Jackson – 5.89
2. John Means – 5.84
3. Zac Gallen – 5.67
4. Jorge Lopez – 4.89
5. Trevor Williams – 4.88
6. Kolby Allard – 4.85
7. Marco Gonzales – 4.83

Hitter wOBA vs. LH

1. Mike Trout – Angels – .415
2. Hunter Pence – Rangers – .406
3. Eugenio Suarez – Reds – .396
4. Tommy Pham – Rays – .392
5. Danny Santana – Rangers – .380

Hitter wOBA vs. RH

1. Christian Yelich – Brewers – .483
2. Bryan Reynolds – Pirates – .425
3. Josh Bell – Pirates – .414
4. Charlie Blackmon – Rockies – .399
5. George Springer – Astros – .395

PITCHERS

Brendan McKay – vs. Seattle Mariners – $7,500

Analysis: I am going to make this happen and work…at least that’s what I believe. McKay is the hybrid player who can pitch and hit. But they have been using him as a pitcher mostly. As a lefty, he draws one of the best matchups on the board, but we have to worry a bit if McKay can get to 5 or 6 innings without much trouble. The Mariners strike out a ton so McKay’s upside gets a bump, plus he has QS and W upside here. He strikes out righties at nearly a 12 K/9 clip and lefties nearly at an 8 K/9 clip. The Mariners are 20th in team wOBA against lefties.

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MLB – Value Index – Thursday, Aug. 15

 

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Reynaldo Lopez – 6.29
2. Drew Smyly – 6.19
3. Adam Plutko – 6.13
4. Julio Teheran – 5.89
5. Alex Young – 5.62
6. Jeff Samardzija – 5.57
7. Michael Wacha – 5.24
8. Pedro Payano – 5.20
9. Devin Smeltzer – 5.02
10. Mike Fiers – 4.85

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Pedro Payano – 6.32
2. Mike Fiers – 5.67
3. Aaron Sanchez – 5.57
4. Adam Plutko – 5.34
5. Andrew Heaney – 5.17
6. Michael Wacha – 4.85
7. Julio Teheran – 4.71

PITCHERS

Andrew Heaney – vs. Chicago White Sox – $6,400

Analysis: Heaney hasn’t pitched well since coming off the IL, nor are his season numbers consistently good. But this play is where I will go for two reasons – price and strikeouts. While Heaney has been prone to the long ball, he has elite strikeout numbers. Against LH bats, Heaney owns an 11.37 K/9 while owning a 10.22 K/9 against RH bats. The White Sox are middle of the pack in team wOBA vs. LH pitchers but strikeout 23% of the time. Heaney allows for you to load up on bats, wait until the last game, and gives you strikeout, QS and W upside on FanDuel.

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MLB – Value Index – Tuesday, Aug. 13

The postponement of the Astros and White Sox really just threw me off for Monday’s slate. I tried to get cute and guess that Zack Godley would be the long reliever for the Blue Jays, and yea, it was a damn disaster.

Hopefully weather doesn’t knock me off my rocks again, but we have so many more games and players to choose from today. There are 14 games in total, so a near-full slate of action.

Good luck today. Below are the xFIP tables and the wOBA tables for qualified hitters.

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Joe Ross – 7.42
2. Glenn Sparkman – 6.09
3. Eric Lauer – 5.51
4. Trevor Williams – 5.39
5. Thomas Pannone – 5.25
6. Jason Vargas – 5.06
7. Chase Anderson – 4.92
8. Jordan Yamamoto – 4.89
9. Griffin Canning – 4.85
10. Jack Flaherty – 4.79

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Zac Gallen – 5.86
2. John Means – 5.80
3. Thomas Pannone – 5.65
4. Jason Vargas – 5.36
5. Alex Wood – 5.35
6. Yusei Kikuchi – 5.28
7. Glenn Sparkman – 4.97
8. Chase Anderson – 4.93
9. Brett Anderson – 4.92
10. Jordan Yamamoto – 4.78

Hitter wOBA vs. LH

1. Manny Machado – .482
2. Kris Bryant – Cubs – .469
3. DJ LeMahieu – Yankees – .444
4. Rhys Hoskins – Phillies – .430
5. Javier Baez – Cubs – .423
6. Anthony Rendon – Nationals – .419
7. Peter Alonso – Mets – .406
8. Hunter Pence – Rangers – .396
9. Matt Chapman – Athletics – .394
10. Niko Goodrum – Tigers – .393

Hitter wOBA vs. RH

1. Mike Trout – Angels – .455
2. Cody Bellinger – Dodgers – .429
3. Freddie Freeman – Braves – .416
4. Rafael Devers – Red Sox – .411
5. Bryan Reynolds – Pirates – .404
6. Josh Bell – Pirates – .399
7. Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox – .395
8. Charlie Blackmon – Rockies – .394
9. Mookie Betts – Red Sox – .391
10. Ketel Marte – Diamondbacks – .388

PITCHERS

Madison Bumgarner – vs. Oakland Athletics – $8,600

Analysis: So it’s not everyday that I will recommend any LH pitcher squaring off with the Oakland Athletics, but this is one of those days. Yes, the A’s are very good against right-handed pitching, but we have a stud pitcher with a reduced price, facing the A’s at home in a ballpark that mitigates offensive damage. The A’s don’t strike out a lot and Bumgarner has struck out just 5 batters in his last two outings, but despite just 3 strikeouts in his last start, Bumgarner went 7 innings, got the QS and scored 40 fantasy points on FanDuel. That’s well worth the price for the safety you get with Bumgarner on the mound tonight.

HITTERS

Kris Bryant – 3B – Chicago Cubs – $3,800

Analysis: We have a few sluggers that seem vastly underpriced compared to their starting pitcher matchup today. Kris Bryant vs. Jason Vargas is one of them. Bryant is at the top of the wOBA table today against left-handed pitching. As you see he destroys southpaws and Vargas is the perfect southpaw to destroy as he owns a 3.95 ERA, but a 5.36 xFIP, allowing a 39% hard contact rate and a 1.32 HR/9…all with a oh so lucky .243 BABIP.

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MLB – Value Index – Monday, Aug. 12

Welcome into today’s 8-game MLB slate where the pitching is weak and Coors might hit the peak.

I am not going to rhyme anymore, but this intro is going to be short and done in six, five, four…

OK, seriously, the rhyming is over, check out the tables below and today’s value recommendations. Good luck!

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Dylan Cease – 5.56
2. Ariel Jurado – 5.53
3. Anthony deSclafani – 5.47
4. Zach Plesac – 5.12
5. Jose Suarez – 4.98

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. John Means – 5.80
2. Jose Suarez – 5.71
3. Erick Fedde – 5.69
4. Mitch Keller – 5.35
5. Zach Plesac – 5.15

Hitter wOBA vs. LH

1. DJ LeMahieu – Yankees – .444
2. Tommy Pham – Rays – .397
3. Carlos Santana – Indians – .377
4. Giovanny Urshela – Yankees – .369
5. Travis d’Arnaud – Rays – .365

Hitter wOBA vs. RH

1. Mike Trout – Angels – .455
2. Juan Soto – Nationals – .411
3. Bryan Reynolds – Pirates – .404
4. Anthony Rendon – Nationals – .404
5. Josh Bell – Pirates – .399

PITCHERS

Zack Greinke – at Chicago White Sox – $10,800

Analysis: I have been a pay down for pitchers guy all season, but with this 8-game slate, I don’t want to even have to think about who my guy is on FD tonight. Greinke is clearly the No. 1 option and it’s really not even close for me. He draws the White Sox who have one hitter with a wOBA above .325 against right-handed pitching while 10 out of their 12 active roster bats strike out at least 23% of the time against righties, or worse. Of those 12, five have ISOs below .100. They have three guys with ISOs above .152. Needless to say, with this offense at his back and his personal matchup, Greinke has all of the upside in the world tonight with his .252 wOBA vs. lefties and .271 wOBA vs. righties. Even with Coors on this slate, I am going to roster Greinke on FanDuel.

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