It’s Friday, so yo, yo, let’s make a wicked cup of cocoa!
I don’t know, I am a bit delirious I guess and wanted to channel some good vibes via Mrs. Doubtfire…
My first week of school is nearly complete and Fridays are when I start to feel the effects of a lack of sleep (thus the random opening movie line). But bare with me here, I believe I have a solid set of BvP options for you to close out on a high for one of the last few weeks of the baseball season.
Make sure you check back Saturday as we will have a special BvP for MVP for the DraftKings Baseball World Championships. Our fearless leader booked his ticket to Toronto as well, so we wish him the best and hope he kicks some ass!
Dailybaseballdata.com can be to blame for all of the awesome crowd sourced batter vs. pitcher data from around the league, so make sure you check them out!
Gregory Polanco – OF – Pirates – vs. Matt Garza – DraftKings – $5,500
| BB% vs. R | ISO vs. R | Hard% vs. R | BAA vs. R | wOBA vs. R | wRC+ vs. R | Polanco BvP |
| 10.1 % | 0.222 | 37.2 % | 0.282 | 0.357 | 125 | 4-for-7, 1 HR, 2 BB |
Analysis: I have harped all year about how much I love Polanco for all formats (and he helped our fearless leader cash in a $50K tender earlier this year!). Tonight is nothing different, especially now that he seems to have recovered from his injury well and is smashing the ball. For those living under a rock, I love Polanco in all formats most nights because he do just about anything (except pitch) to get you a high floor for your cash games while going vastly underowned in GPPs. I expect the same tonight with his elevated price tag, but he’s at Miller Park and Matt Garza is hot garbage no matter where he pitches. Lucky for us, this game is at Miller Park, too.
David Ortiz – 1B – Red Sox – vs. Ian Kennedy – DraftKings – $5,200
| BB% vs. R | ISO vs. R | Hard% vs. R | BAA vs. R | wOBA vs. R | wRC+ vs. R | Ortiz BvP |
| 14.5 % | 0.36 | 46.5 % | 0.322 | 0.445 | 180 | 3-for-6, 1 HR |
Analysis: Big Papi continues to play murderball on opposing pitchers. With his final regular season winding down, I expect bigger things from Big Papi. He doesn’t have very many home games left at Fenway, so I think he has even more motivation to play well for the fans and himself. Tonight he gets Ian Kennedy, one of the greatest fly ball pitchers in all of baseball. Big Papi has killed it at Fenway, with a .352 batting average with 16 HRs and 62 RBI. Meanwhile, Kennedy has allowed 19 of his 28 (yes, 28 freaking home runs!!!) on the road. I love the Red Sox tonight and especially Big Papi.
Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros – vs. Drew Smyly – DraftKings – $4,400
| BB% vs. L | ISO vs. L | Hard% vs. L | BAA vs. L | wOBA vs. L | wRC+ vs. L | Altuve BvP |
| 11.0 % | 0.238 | 38.7 % | 0.385 | 0.459 | 197 | 3-for-5, 1 2B, 2 SB |
Analysis: You are going to see two instances of interesting pricing by DraftKings in this next two picks. I can’t remember the last time Altuve was below $5,000 on DK. It actually wasn’t that long ago (Aug. 16 at $4,900), but apparently DK sees Drew Smyly as a potential to do some damage, so Altuve’s price dropped $1,100 from his last game on Wednesday. Altuve hasn’t been as good at home as he has on the road, but he always should be priced in the $5,000 range, ESPECIALLY against lefties!!! Smyly has the stuff, but he can’t get out of his own way and has been lit up on the road to the tune of a 5.58 ERA. He also has given up 26 HRs this season, 12 of which have come on the road. While Smyly may make a good GPP play against the strikeout prone Astro, I am going have all I can of Altuve at this reduced price against a southpaw (see how much he crushes against them?).
Nelson Cruz – OF – Mariners – vs. Chris Sale – DraftKings – $4,200
| BB% vs. L | ISO vs. L | Hard% vs. L | BAA vs. L | wOBA vs. L | wRC+ vs. L | Cruz BvP |
| 12.1 % | 0.336 | 38.2 % | 0.282 | 0.407 | 163 | 7-for-19, 2 HR, 2 BB |
Analysis: So if Altuve’s price drops because of a potential difficult matchup, then how does Nelly Cruz hover around the $4,200 to $4,700 against a pitcher who is considered elite? It’s odd to me, but I still love Nelly tonight. He’s up against a lefty who is pitching more to contact and it has hurt Sale at times, especially at home where he has a 4.01 ERA. U.S. Cellular also has been a venue where Sale has given up 13 of his 18 HRs this season. Cruz might appear like a GPP only play due to his matchup, but he’s equally as good as Altuve against lefties with more pop, so he’s actually a cash game play for his LvR matchup plus his cheaper price tag with upside.
Justin Upton – OF – Tigers – vs. Ricky Nolasco – DraftKings – $3,500
| BB% vs. R | ISO vs. R | Hard% vs. R | BAA vs. R | wOBA vs. R | wRC+ vs. R | Upton BvP |
| 6.2 % | 0.162 | 37.8 % | 0.242 | 0.299 | 84 | 9-for-22, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 SB |
Analysis: I am expecting increased ownership with Upton tonight, not just because of his matchup, but because he’s on a tear with 4 straight 2-hit games. Nolasco is a reverse-splits pitcher, and while Upton hasn’t been very good all year, he’s been able to hit RH pitchers better than lefties (yes, somehow). I guess you can say he’s a reverse-split bat up against a reverse-splits pitcher….hell, I’ll take it.
Ryan Raburn – OF – Rockies – vs. Gio Gonzalez – DraftKings – $2,700 – GPP Play of the Night
| BB% vs. L | ISO vs. L | Hard% vs. L | BAA vs. L | wOBA vs. L | wRC+ vs. L | Raburn BvP |
| 15.5 % | 0.229 | 35.1 % | 0.217 | 0.343 | 94 | 7-for-14, 1 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB |
Analysis: Honestly, I think Raburn can easily be a nice punt option for your cash games, but Polanco makes my DFS pants go crazy more, so I can’t not put him as a cash game play. So Raburn gets bumped down to the GPP play of the evening, though at $2,700, he’s not much of a risk. He has 3 HRs against Gio in his career, and yes this isn’t Coors, but Raburn has the power to take anyone deep at anytime. He just has to be able to make contact, something he’s not exactly adequate at doing.
Bartolo Colon – SP – Mets – vs. Philadelphia Phillies – DraftKings – $7,600
| K/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERA | SIERA | Colon PvB |
| 6.03 | 1.12 | 0.301 | 3.36 | 4.3 | 32-for-140, 3 XBH, 4 HR, 30 Ks |
Analysis: Tonight could be a night where Colon’s regression catches up to him. Why do I say that? Because he’s up against the Phillies and the Phillies always seem to be able to ruin a DFS player’s night by being scrappy. Yes, they are in the bottom 5 of wOBA vs. RH pitching, but they always seem to ruin great matchups when a guy’s stats suggest regression is headed his way. I will side with Colon though after having said all of that, and only because he’s at home, where he’s typically pitched better. But can his aging body keep up with the grind? He has done well against Philly this season, going 1-1 in 17 1/3 innings with just 4 ERs allowed and 15 Ks. I think he’s a great SP2 in all formats, but maybe just stack the Phillies in a lineup to hedge your bets?
