Welcome into today’s edition of the Value index! There’s one theme for me today, Code word: Diamondback.
We have a split slate of action, but for our grading purposes here at Daily Overlay I will focus on a couple of recommendations for the evening slate.
There are only four games tonight in Major League Baseball. There are a couple of easy spots to target bats for cash games and tournaments and we have Chris Sale available.
So, here are today’s recommendations.
Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Arizona Diamondbacks – $5,500
Analysis: Up first is Paul Goldschmidt. Get used to this theme, a lot of Arizona picks are coming! The Diamondbacks are taking on Jered Weaver at home tonight, and while I got a little crazy by recommending Trevor Cahill, I will not and cannot support anything remotely resembling Jered Weaver tonight. He owns a .358 wOBA, a 2.06 HR/9 rate and a 38% hard contact rate against RH bats since the start of the 2016 season. In that same span, Goldy has a .192 ISO and a 37% contact rate against RH pitchers. Don’t worry, I won’t get too redundant with the remaining D-Backs.
Jedd Gyorko – 2B – St. Louis Cardinals – $3,600
Analysis: Ok, well there is one non-D-Back on this list and it goes to the Judge Jedd, who is on fire in his last 10 games where he has posted 13 hits, 3 doubles, 1 triple and 2 home runs. He’s been destroying right-handed pitching this year and gets an inexperienced RH pitcher named Casey Lawrence. Gyorko used to be a guy we could use against lefties, but he has become much improved against RH pitching. Since 2016, Gyorko has a .366 wOBA with a ridiculous .300 ISO and a 35% hard contact rate. The Cardinals haven’t been a great offense to start the season, but Gyorko is a great value play tonight.
A.J. Pollock – OF – Arizona Diamondbacks – $4,800
Analysis: I’ve told you about Weaver versus righties, so now you need to know that Pollock has a .366 wOBA against RH bats since 2015. He’s always a threat to steal to give up a safer floor and a higher ceiling should he reach base. Deploy safely.
David Peralta – OF – Arizona Diamondbacks – $3,800
Analysis: So what about Weaver against lefties since 2016? Well, they are just as dreadful. He owns a .364 wOBA and gives up a 1.85 HR/9. This is Chase Field we are talking about here and Peralta has been super hot lately, recording 17 hits in his past 17 games, all of which have been multi-hit games. Don’t know if there is a hotter player on the planet than Peralta (maybe Thames?). Under $4K is the perfect spot to roster Mr. Peralta.
Jake Lamb – 3B – Arizona Diamondbacks – $4,000
Analysis: See Peralta, David. One thing here, Lamb is the best hitter on his team against RH pitching with a .349 wOBA against and a .209 ISO. Way too cheap here.
Taijuan Walker – SP – Arizona Diamondbacks – $8,900
Analysis: We need a pivot from Chris Sale today and Walker is the guy to have against the hapless San Diego offense. The Padres strike out 23.7% of the time against RH pitching this season and are next to last in wOBA at .284 and sport a pathetic .236 batting average against. Walker on the other hand has all the potential in the world, but gets into trouble with walks and control. He has the strikeout ability to keep a safe floor while having a high ceiling. He owns an 8 K/9 rate against lefties and his K/9 rate is nearly 8 against RH bats since 2016. I didn’t get cute with this pick. He’s not Trevor Cahill.
