Tonight we have the first series rematch since this happened….
I can’t wait to see if the fireworks carry over into this year or if bygones will be bygones. I am all for another closely contested, heated battle that leads to fisticuffs again. More on Rougned Odor later, by the way.
It’s a 14-game slate tonight with the Tigers and White Sox out of the main slate mix due to a double-header, which is fine because those two teams drive me nuts.
Overall, I like the pitching on this slate at the top, but the mid to low-tiers are brutal. It’s going to be tough to make some decisions because we do have Coors returning to the field. We might also get a clean slate for a change as it appears inclement weather doesn’t look to be an issue as of this writing.
Before we get to picks, here’s my usual disclaimer – Max Scherzer is far and away the best option tonight, so you don’t need me to tell you to play him. Also, i think I am going to start fading the follow bats as picks, unless there are some kind of odd circumstances where they will be unowned, and they are Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. They are clearly the two best hitters in baseball and don’t really need touting. I don’t know if any other bats will make that list, but Trout and Harper are getting added with Kershaw and Scherzer. Everyone else is fair game.
Now, picks!
Kendrys Morales – 1B – Toronto Blue Jays – $3,900
Analysis: There are a lot of good first base options tonight, so I am not sure how owned Kendrys Morales is, but he’s my favorite play on this entire slate. I wish DraftKings would have a utility spot so I can play Morales and Smoak together (that’s what arcade mode is for I guess), but anyway, Morales is going to see A.J. Griffin, a lefty bat’s wet dream. Griffin has been terrible against lefties in his career and it’s the same ol’ story in 2017, allowing a .368 wOBA with a 2.63 HR/9 rate and 38% hard contact. Morales has BvP to boot – 4-for-10, 1 HR, 3 walks, zero strikeouts.
Nelson Cruz – OF – Seattle Mariners – $4,200
Analysis: Hey look, it’s Nelson Cruz against a lefty, whaddya know? E-Rod has been a solid pitcher this year, but he has some regression coming (.226 BABIP against RH bats this season). If this game were in SAFECO, I might not be on Cruz as much just because E-Rod has pitched so well, but this is Fenway, where the Green Monster eats up hits. Cruz has a .445 wOBA, a .321 ISO and 34.8% hard contact against southpaws this season. Honestly, you should combine his 2016 stats against lefties, print it out and keep it by your computer to always remind you of this matchup.
Jonathan Lucroy – C – Texas Rangers – $3,800
Analysis: So we there are going to be two catchers on this list today, but they are two catchers I can’t ignore or choose between. Lucroy and the Rangers are going up against Mike Bolsinger in Rogers Centre (also another bonus for Morales by the way), and Bolsinger has been getting torched by RH bats the past two seasons, allowing a .415 wOBA with a 2.63 HR/9 rate and 37% hard contact. This ballpark also won’t be forgiving to pitching either, and neither with Lucroy, who is 3-for-7 with 1 2B, 1 HR and a walk against Bolsinger. Lucroy also comes in with 14 hits in his last 10 games
Evan Longoria – 3B – Tampa Bay Rays – $3,700
Analysis: Typically we love Evan Longoria versus a lefty, but this season he hasn’t been very good against them. He has just one home run, but I don’t think it’s anything to be concerned about and positive regression should soon follow. Longo and the Rays take on Mr. Flyball himself, Hector Santiago at Target Field, where left field favors RH bats. Since 2016, Santiago has allowed 1.42 HR/9 along with a 37% hard contact rate. I feel like Santiago is another Marco Estrada, gives up lots of hard contact but seems to keep the ball in the park. Anyway, Longo is in a good spot here, so we shouldn’t be afraid of his current track record. Oh, and he also is 4-for-9 with a double against Hector.
Buster Posey – C – San Francisco Giants – $4,000
Analysis: Posey against a lefty? No way! Yes way! Al-ways! Posey gets Jamie Garcia tonight, a walk-prone ground ball pitcher who might be a sneaky SP2 tonight actually, but he has to navigate around Posey first. Against Garcia, Posey is 8-for-16 with a double and a home run, so I’ll take a .500 batting average at low ownership
Marcell Ozuna – OF – Miami Marlins – $3,900
Analysis: Ozuna’s price has been coming up lately, but that’s not going to keep me away from him tonight. Ozuna and a the Marlins take on Jesse Chavez tonight, a pitcher who is prone to home runs against RH bats. This season, Chavez has allowed a .323 wOBA, a 1.88 HR/9 rate and 36% hard contact. People like Ozuna against lefties, but he dominates RH pitching. He owns a ..383 wOBA, a .264 ISO and a 45% hard contact rate against right-handers. I think Chavez should be shaking in his cleats tonight.
Rougned Odor – 2B – Texas Rangers – $3,900
Analysis: Rougie has all the motivation in the world tonight. He’s going to be the most hated man in Toronto and hopefully uses the boo birds to channel his inner home run swing. Odor has struggled this season, but he’s seeing and hitting the ball much better right now with 7 hits in his last 8 games. He hasn’t hit a home run in a long time and is in a great spot to continue sticking it to the Blue Jays with a metaphorical punch to the face.
Xander Bogaerts – SS – Boston Red Sox – $4,800
Analysis: Bogey has been very kind two me the past few games, and he was on my short list of recommendations last night, but I opted for Hanley (and it backfired for grading purposes). But Xander finally got that first home run out of the way last night, so I am banking we see them come in bunches. Bogey and the Red Sox get a gas can to beat up tonight in Yovani Gallardo. Bogey is a reverse-splits hitter as well, so the pieces match. In 12 ABs, Bogey has 4 hits and should be able to run on Gallardo should he get on base. The Red Sox are a sneaky stack tonight.
Jake Arrieta – SP – Chicago Cubs – $9,200
Analysis: I hope this play isn’t wishful thinking on my end and rather a great pivot off the top options. Aririeta has been getting touched up this season, but when we dig into his numbers, we can see that he is getting BABIP’d a lot. Against lefties, Arrieta’s BABIP is .351 and against righties, it’s .341. The K/9 rate and SwStr% is there as well/ I love this play because it’s a hammer option to possibly win you a slate and you are getting Arrieta at a great price and likely low ownership. The Dodgers have been struggling a bit of late and are striking out 20% of the time. This could blow up in my face, but you have to find some salary relief at the pitching position tonight.
