NBA Value Index – Wednesday, Jan. 17

For the Value Index, last week’s Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs was the last for this guy’s 2017-18 NFL DFS coverage. Writing up something for Championship Weekend doesn’t provide a lot of options, therefore let’s all enjoy the last week of NFL DFS for the next 8 months.

With that ending, comes new beginnings.

As I’ve stated the past few weeks in NBA coverage, once the NFL season was over, I was tweaking the way I present the Value Index.

The changes will move from a Pick ‘Em format to a game-by-game first look format.

The reason for this is because of all the injury and late-scratch news we get before lock each night in the Association. It’s not even the All-Star Break for the NBA and the late start/sit news is down right ridiculous.

Trying to write my favorite plays the night before, only to personally change some of them (and not update the Index) right before lock has seemed a bit “fake” I guess is the right word?

Basically, I would rather be helpful in supplying some research and information, suggest a few plays and then let you decide where you want to go. It would help me personally, so why wouldn’t I want to do the same for our readers?

The Index will run Monday through Friday each week. The only exceptions will be if we don’t have at least 4 games on a main slate.

This will remain premium content, but you will be able to read a couple of matchups as freebies, but will need to subscribe for at least a 7-day free trial to get the remainder of the content. On short slates with 4 or 5 games, I will offer up the Index for free (if I am feeling nice that day!)

Without further adieu, here’s the new and improved version of the Value Index. I hope you enjoy! I always welcome feedback here or on Twitter @hotdog_dailyDFS.

Washington: This is a 9-game slate, so we can be a little more picky about some of the top guys on the slate. One of those guys is in the first game: John Wall. He’s nearly 10K and faces the Hornets on the road. If you have been playing NBA DFS for awhile, you know that Wall is always a better play at home. With that said, he draws a great matchup against Kemba Walker, one of the worst defenders in the NBA. Wall’s supporting cast is the usual suspects – Beal, Porter and Gortat. Beal should match up on the defensive minded Batum and is still overpriced while Otto has been a lotto pick of late with his inconsistent play. Markieff Morris is lone injury we need to take note of. Should he sit, Mike Scott becomes a solid value play. Kelly Oubre offers lots of minutes, but his usage is miniscule. Gortat might see more minutes in this one going against Dwight Howard, but I can’t see myself playing the Polish Hammer against a guy who can overpower him and can keep him in check when Dwight decides he wants to play defense.

Charlotte: Like Wall, Kemba Walker is another PG we want to target when he is playing at home. The problem for me is that I don’t think Charlotte is a very good team and unless they are playing even more inferior opponents or a significant injury funnels usage to a backup or other player, they are almost an exclusive stay away in DFS. Batum still hasn’t quite found his footing on this team and is not offering the kind of upside we want to see. Frank the Tank Kaminsky is questionable for this game, then Marvin Williams would be firmly in play as we should be able to lock in those minutes, plus he’s been playing well lately, scoring more than 30 DK points in his past two. The other Hornet on my radar is Dwight, who at $7,500, has been see more than 30 minutes in four straight contests and put up nearly 50 DK points in these two teams lone matchup of the season.

Injuries Notice: Markieff Morris, Frank Kaminsky

Must-Have Plays: None

Bubble Plays: John Wall, Dwight Howard

Value Plays: Kelly Oubre, Mike Scott (if Markieff sits), Marvin Williams (if Kaminsky sits)

San Antonio: With no line on this game, it’s truly hard to dig too deep into who is going to see the court for this game. Kawhi Leonard unsurprisingly sat in the Spurs last outing, therefore I am expecting him to suit up (and possibly see another veteran sit against the lowly Nets). The spread opened at just -6.5, but we can’t really trust that without knowing who is starting. If the Spurs are at full strength, it would still be difficult to play much from this team in a salary format due to the risk of a blowout. They are facing the Nets though, so this is a bump in pace for the Spurs and should an Aldridge or Leonard sit, then rest of the team (and whomever is starting for them) gets a huge bump in usage and would become near locks for me. Kawhi and Aldridge are the top-two offensive specialists for this team with old man Pau, who is questionable, a distant second. It would make sense for Pau to sit in this matchup due to the pace and lack of size Brooklyn has in the frontcourt, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Pau is out. That would make Aldridge and Kawhi a little more attractive as a mini stack if they both suit up. IF Pau sits, that doesn’t leave a lot of guys to play in his stead. Aldridge could play the 5 or Davis Bertans and Joffery Lauvergne could see some extra run and could provide solid value.

Brooklyn: D’Angelo Russell is soon to return, but he’s already been ruled out, so we have another hodge podge Nets squad to probably easily fade against the defensive-minded and slow-paced Spurs team. Spencer Dinwiddie’s minutes have been sporadic of late and only Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Allen Crabbe have truly seen any kind of solid minutes share. Crabbe doesn’t see a lot of usage, though the Spurs “weakness” has been against SGs this season. DeMarre Carroll is someone I never get right and I don’t ever try to pretend I know when he is the correct play, so I stay away every time the Nets are on the schedule. Center minutes are a rotating carousel, and Caris LeVert doesn’t play more than 30 minutes a game, so this team, while cheap-ish, are a stay away for me most likely.

Injury Notice: Pau Gasol, Manu Ginobli ruled out.

Must-Have Plays: None

Bubble Plays: Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge

Value Plays: Davis Bertans, Joffrey Lauvergne (if Gasol sits)