Entries by Brad Richter

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 3

The NFL season is rolling along now as we enter Week 3. Week 3 is a tale of two types of games with four games chiming in with a Vegas total over 52 points and six games with a Vegas total of 42 points or fewer. Take a wild guess which games you’ll want to get a lot of your exposure to in DFS lineups and which games you’ll want to avoid except for the defenses for the most part.

My “Bets” struggled last week putting me at 6-6 for the season. I have 7 plays listed in this week’s article including the Jets +3 over the Browns on Thursday.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
New York Jets 44 52 38 46 41 36 54 47 40
Cleveland Browns 42 48 36 41 36 47 61 42 -3

The Jets are coming off a home loss in Miami and will stay on the road on a short week playing in Cleveland on Thursday night. The Jets passing game behind Sam Darnold has a decent ranking in the middle of the pack in yardage and TD passes and will face an equally mid-level Browns pass defense in yardage allowed and TD passes, however, they do carry an 8th DVOA ranking against the pass. The best way to attack the Browns pass defense this season is through the RB where they rank 30th DVOA against pass-catching backs which could set up Bilal Powell as a potential option. Meanwhile, look for WR Quincy Enunwa to continue to be the primary target and chew up a bunch of short receptions as the Browns have allowed 16 receptions per game (25th) to opposing WRs. The Jets running game should be solid as they rank 4th in rushing yards by RBs this season, while the Browns have ceded 99 rushing yards per game (25th). They should also do well in the red zone as both teams have averaged one rushing TD scored and allowed by RBs through two weeks, so that brings Isaiah Crowell, who is returning to face his former team, into the mix. Outside of the RBs and Enunwa, there is nothing to consider expect a long-shot revenge game spot for Terrelle Pryor if you’re feeling lucky.

The Browns almost worked their way into another tie or even a win in Week 2 against the Saints but kicking woes put an end to that. Tyrod Taylor and the Browns figure to have trouble moving the ball through the air on Thursday night against a good Jets pass defense that ranks 2nd DVOA this season and is in the top 10 across the board against opposing RB/WR/TE options. Jarvis Landry to once again monopolize the targets and has the best individual matchup working out of the slot. The ground game will see the most production coming from Taylor on QB scrambles/keepers as he averages the most yards per game on the ground for QB this season and the Jets rank 26th in QB rushing yards allowed this season. Carlos Hyde should once again be the primary ball carrier but could have a hard time generating much as the Jets have allowed just 3.39 YPC (7th) while the Browns have only produced 3.14 YPC (29th) by RBs this year. Maybe Hyde can punch one across the goal line to save his day for the third straight week but don’t bank on it.

Hot Picks:

  • Isaiah Crowell (*)
  • Bilal Powell (*)
  • Quincy Enunwa (*)
  • Jarvis Landry (*)
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NFL – Handicapper Results and Recap – Week 2

We are now two weeks into our newest endeavor to track NFL handicappers and provide Consensus Picks as part of our subscription service (7-day FREE trial and only $11.99/mo) and the first two weeks could not have been more different. Week 1 saw the collective handicappers we tracked produce a 53-27-7 overall record for a […]

NFL – Expert Grading and Recap – Week 2

With two weeks of the NFL season in the books, a few NFL DFS experts are starting to break away from the herd with FantasyTeamAdvice producing the best DailyOverlay score in Week 2 as they also sit atop the Overall Standings. However, there is a long way to go, so let’s see who can make […]

NFL – Handicapper Consensus Picks – Week 2

Welcome to the Week 2 NFL Handicapper Consensus!  In the introduction of this article series last week, we provided six selections which went a perfect 4-0 with two pushes. There are nine consensus picks on the list for Week 2.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of Handicapper Picks against the spread and totals where we pay for the premium picks and take the time and effort to accumulate them, so you don’t have to. This week we pulled picks from 14 expert sites and 37 different handicappers to get our consensus betting selections.  Picks make the Consensus list if they receive at least three more selection on one side than the other side. We will also be grading handicappers throughout the season.

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Here is the NFL Handicapper Consensus list for Week 2…

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NFL – DFS Weighted Consensus – Week 2

Welcome to the Week 2 NFL DFS Expert Weighted Consensus Rankings! After a lot of high-owned chalk options went off in Week 1 the salaries have tightened up somewhat this week but the experts still definitely have their favorite options for this Sunday. The Chiefs/Steelers comes in with the highest Vegas total on the slate but there are a variety of other games that could also shootout.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players that are selected by at least two experts.

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Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 2…

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NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 2

It was great to have football back in our lives last weekend. Week 1 showed that sometimes you just have to roll with the chalk as DFS scores and cash lines were very high thanks to stale pricing that had been sitting on the shelf for weeks. Week 2 should be a different story with fresh salaries and a glimpse into which teams and players might be ready to produce this season.

Note that my Hot Sheet data points will take into account the first week of the season combined with last season’s numbers for the first few weeks of the new season.

Also, be sure to check out my Top Bets for Week 2 at the bottom of this writeup. My Week 1 plays went a perfect 5-0!

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com. Numbers in BOLD represent potential Hot Plays.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Baltimore Ravens 48 46 42 53 70 60 57 73 -1
Cincinnati Bengals 35 43 20 39 32 50 41 42 44

The Ravens are coming off a Week 1 thrashing of the Bills but have a short week to travel to meet their division-rival Bengals on Thursday night. Joe Flacco and the passing game for the Ravens had success in the opener with 260 yards through the air to go along with three TDs. Meanwhile, the Bengals allowed Andrew Luck to throw for 319 yards and two scores. Despite those gaudy Week 1 numbers, I expect a major regression in the Ravens passing offense against a familiar foe on a short week as they ranked 30th in passing yards last year. I don’t like any of the individual matchups for the Ravens primary receivers and the TE position which could have some success doesn’t have any fantasy-worthy targets expect maybe a single game flier on Nick Boyle. The running game should feed RB Alex Collins more than seven times this week and could have some success against a Bengals defense that ranked 29th in rushing yards allowed to opposing RBs last season and didn’t have a much of a test in Week 1 with a weak Colts ground game. The best play on the Ravens is probably their kicker (Justin Tucker) and defense.

The Bengals picked up a hard-fought road win over Andrew Luck and the Colts in Week 1. While they are on a short week, they at least get some home-cookin’ against a familiar foe. Andy Dalton and the Bengals passing game will likely struggle against a strong Ravens pass defense that was stingy last season allowing the 3rd fewest TD passes and the 10th fewest passing yards per game. The Bengals do have a lot of good playmakers on offense so one of them could slip behind the defense for a long score but predicting one would be foolish. Joe Mixon had a strong Week 1 performance with 95 rushing yards and a score and could be the best option to move the ball down the field for the Bengals in this game. The Ravens ranked 25th in rushing yards allowed to opposing RBs last season. It figures to be a defensive struggle without much fantasy intrigue.

Hot Picks:

  • Alex Collins (*)
  • Ravens defense (*)
  • Joe Mixon (*)
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NFL – Expert Grading and Recap – Week 1

The NFL season is underway! We have completed crunching the numbers for Week 1 and the top three NFL DFS experts to start the year come from GoingFor2, DraftKings Playbook – Cash Picks and FantasyTeamAdvice. There was a lot of chalk that hit in Week 1 which resulted in some very high scores and cash […]

MLB Expert Recap and Grades – FINAL

This is the final MLB DFS expert recap for the 2018 season. Congrats to the top three expert rankers on the Pitching leaderboard with DailyFantasySportsRankings taking home the title followed by DailyFantasyNerd and Rotogrinders-Consensus. On the Hitting leaderboard, there were some familiar sites with Rotogrinders-Consensus taking home top honors followed by FantasyTeamAdvice and DailyFantasySportsRankings. It […]

NFL – DFS Weighted Consensus – Week 1

Welcome to the Week 1 NFL DFS Weighted Consensus Rankings! That has a nice ring to it. For those who aren’t familiar with our Weighted Consensus Rankings read the next paragraph for a full introduction. For those who are back, thanks for joining us for another great NFL season. Note that expert’s “current” score is based on last year’s results but will transition to this year’s score after Week 1. In general, you will want to build a lineup with the highest ranked players for Cash games but drop down to grab a few of those players lower on the list for GPPs as they will likely carry lower ownership but are still strong plays this week. I’ll give away the QB section for free in Week 1 so everyone can see what a great compact overview of the entire DFS expert community looks like. Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to get the whole article.

In this series, we will publish a consensus of NLF DFS expert’s recommendations that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking for each position. To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We also list the projected Ownership Percentages for Cash and GPP leagues (after a couple of weeks) to help you identify some players that could be good low-owned contrarian plays. We will include all players with a Rank Score of 10 or higher.

This article is part of our premium content, so be sure to sign up to get this great snapshot of who the DFS Industry Experts recommend.

Here is the NFL Weighted Consensus list for Week 1…

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QB

Name Team  Price Rank Score
Tom Brady NE  $ 7,200 37.67
Philip Rivers LAC  $ 6,400 29.00
Andy Dalton CIN  $ 5,800 28.87
Drew Brees NO  $ 6,800 23.36
Case Keenum DEN  $ 5,100 19.46
Ben Roethlisberger PIT  $ 6,600 18.29
Deshaun Watson HOU  $ 6,700 13.59
Tyrod Taylor CLE  $ 5,400 10.50
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MLB – On the Hill – Friday (September 7)

By my count, this will be my 108th “On the Hill” article this season. It will also be my last one for the 2018 season as we are shifting all of our focus over to football starting next week. It has been a fun season but does become a grind at times. I have had […]

NFL – Hot Sheet – Week 1

The 2018 NFL Season about ready to kickoff which means the beginning of another season of my NFL Hot Sheet. This year in addition to the Hot Sheet matrix, analysis and DFS picks, I will be adding my Top Bets for the week against the “Vegas” spread as part of a new Betting Consensus that we will be bringing you at DailyOverlay for the NFL season.

As a refresher for the Hot Sheet, I will analyze each game and provide a write-up of how I expect each game to play out based on game script using the ratings I have compiled for each position. The charts below show the rating for each position per team based on each team’s own offensive performance and their opponent’s defensive performance for a variety of factors over the season and last five weeks (Note that the first few weeks will still rely on last season’s stats):

  • Vegas line and total
  • Team pace (plays)
  • Overall play distribution
  • Red Zone and Inside 10 play distribution
  • Yards per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
  • TD per attempt (passing, receiving, rushing)
  • DVOA ratings from FootballOutsiders
  • Sacks, turnovers and defensive touchdowns

All of these stats and rankings are compiled, weighted and averaged to come up with a single “rating” for each team by position for this week. Numbers in bold are “hot” indicating a good matchup. I will list some “Hot Picks” for each game rated from one to three stars and at the bottom of the article give my Top DFS Plays for the week.

Be sure to sign up for a FREE 7-day trial to read this full article and to get all the other great content here at DailyOverlay.

Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE D K Vegas
Atlanta Falcons 45 41 39 29 60 43 37 42 45
Philadelphia Eagles 58 53 65 65 45 58 50 58 -2

The Falcons travel to Philadelphia to face the Super Bowl champs to kick off the season on Thursday night. Both teams played at a slower pace than most teams which could limit possession and total plays in the game. The Falcons passing game, which will once again be led by QB Matt Ryan, will have a tough test on the road against a stingy Eagles pass defense which allowed the 4th lowest Yards per Attempt last season. Look for the RBs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman to be active in the passing game as the Eagles were most vulnerable to pass-catching RBs in the red zone, while the Falcons performed well in this area. Julio Jones will get his share of looks from Ryan but secondary options like Mohammad Sanu actually has a better individual matchup. The running game will have a hard time getting it going on the road against the Eagles rush defense that ranked in the Top 3 in most statistical categories including the #2 DVOA ranking against the run.

The Eagles will begin the season like they finished last year’s Super Bowl run with Nick Foles at QB. Foles and the passing game should have a fair amount of success moving the ball through the air. The targets will be spread out with TE Zach Ertz being the most involved against a middle of the road Falcons defense defending the position. The Falcons also had DVOA rankings of 25th against both #1 and #2 WRs last season which will open up some look for Nelson Agholor and Mike Wallace with Alshon Jeffrey ruled out. Corey Clement will also be involved in the passing game out of the backfield as the Falcons ranked 28th in receiving yards allowed to opposing RBs last season. The Eagles running game might have a little tougher time as the Falcons ranked 6th in rushing yards per game and 3rd in TDs allowed to opposing RBs last year. Foles could get some hidden fantasy production on the ground.

Hot Picks:

  • Mohammad Sanu (*)
  • Mike Wallace (*)
  • Zach Ertz (**)
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PGA – 2018 BMW Championship – Weighted Consensus

Welcome to the Weighted Consensus for the PGA where we publish a more in-depth version of the PGA Consensus rankings that take into account each expert’s current DailyOverlay score to generate a Weighted Consensus ranking.

To calculate the Weighted Rank Score, each expert’s DailyOverlay score is weighted on a sliding scale from 1 to 5 with the top expert in the current standings being weighted with a five while the last place expert is weighted with a one. If you have ever wondered how to differentiate between two players who were both selected by the same number of experts, then this is the list you need. We will include all players that are selected by at least two.

Be sure to sign up a FREE 7-day trial of our Premium Content to find out which high-priced Stud and Value options sit atop the expert’s list.

Here is the PGA Weighted Consensus list for the BMW Championship:

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