Welcome into another week of the new and improved Value Index. Another full week of NBA action.
And the first full week of NBA without any NFL.
While the Patriots and Eagles will take on each other in the Super Bowl in a couple of weeks, we will continue to tackle NBA DFS the best way we know how!
Tonight’s NBA slate is 9-games tall and the hammer game has injury news we may or may not know about heading into lock.
As for the new format of the Value Index, I appreciate any and all feedback! Please follow me on Twitter @hotdogdailyDFS and hit me up on the DRAFT app or DraftKings; username: hotdogphingers.
Good luck tonight!
| O/U | Spread | Pace | |
| Sacramento Kings | 26 | ||
| Charlotte Hornets | 210 | -10 | 9 |
Injury News
None
Sacramento: I am really glad this game is one of the first games at lock. The reason being the Kings’ rotation. George Hill is swirling around as trade bait, Dave Joerger has said he’s going to rest his veterans more, leaving us wanting to avoid the Kings at all costs. Before its all said and done, I expect the Kings to be without Hill and Randolph after the trade deadline, at least. With the young guys getting a boost, players like Skal Labissiere, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Buddy Heild, De’Aaron Fox and WIllie Cauley-Stein should see the most benefit. Traveling West to East against Charlotte isn’t exactly licking my chops for fantasy purposes, but Labissiere is looking like one of my favorite value plays against a defensively weak front court that has allowed nearly 35 points and 18 rebounds per game to PFs. WCS has a tough matchup against Dwight Howard. As for Fox, he has a solid matchup against defenseless Kemba Walker. Bogie #2 also has appeal, but we have to hope he continues to see the minutes.
Charlotte: The front court, specifically Dwight Howard, has the best matchup in what looks to be a favorable game for the Hornets, seeing how they are favored by 10 at home. I have been attacking frontcourt players against the Kings for awhile now. The only problem with Howard is that center is a very strong position tonight. Nevertheless, Howard will be one of my favorite big men against the Kings, who allow 30 points and 20 rebounds per game to centers. Also allowing 53% from the floor to centers, Howard has a wonderful chance to double-double and score some easy buckets and putbacks. Kemba is the next high usage guy on this team that makes a lot of sense. He’s a home/road splits monster and gets a great draw as the Kings are top 10 in fantasy points allowed to PGs, specifically allowing gobs of assists, steals, blocks and FG%. You can play MKG, Marvin Williams, Batum or Frank the Tank, but they are ancillary plays for me.
Must-Have Plays: Dwight Howard
Bubble Plays: Kemba Walker, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Value Plays: Skal Labissiere, De’Aaron Fox (if Hill is out)
| O/U | Spread | Pace | |
| Utah Jazz | 205 | -2.5 | 27 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 14 |
Injury News
Questionable: Rodney Hood
Utah: Rudy Gobert is back and playing all the minutes he can handle. Rodney Hood is on the chopping block and is questionable tonight. This Jazz squad is finally get back to full health and could be without Hood soon if he is traded. But that’s fine with me, Mr. Mudbutt (I call Hood that because he left a game this year because of diarrhea). At any rate, the Jazz are going to be playing at a much slower pace these days as long as they are healthy, but that doesn’t mean we can’t target some of their players. The Jazz keep it simple for me anyway, it’s Donovan MItchell, Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert. Mitchell might be unplayable tonight with a price tag near $8K, but he has a favorable matchup against the Hawks, who are sieves for production to backcourts, most notably shooting guard where they are top 10 in every allowance category: points, rebounds, assists, steals, 3s and FG% to SGs and SFs. Mitchell sees time at the two when Rubio is on the court, and could see more at that position if Hood is out. Favors is in a favorable (pun intended) matchup as well, allowing 35 points per game to PFs. He’s far too cheap. Gobert gets to tackle an untalented frontcourt and at $7K and getting upwards of 30 minutes, he’s vastly underpriced from his norm.
Atlanta: While this game is expected to be close, you find me hard-pressed to roster any Atlanta Hawk tonight. The Jazz play at one of the slowest paces in the league (especially with Gobert back) and are bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to every position that takes the court. Unless we get word of Dennis Schroder sitting, my Atlanta exposure will be non-existent.
Must-Haves: Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors
Bubble Plays: Donovan Mitchell, Dennis Schroder
Value Plays: None
| O/U | Spread | Pace | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 207.5 | -3 | 2 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 30 |
Injury News
Out: JaMychal Green, James Ennis, J.J. Redick
Questionable: Jerryd Bayless, Dillon Brooks, Jarell Martin, Andrew Harrison, Brandan Wright
Philadelphia: This game has a lot of injury questions that we need to monitor throughout the day and up until lock. Most of it is on the Memphis side, but if Jerryd Bayless is ruled out again, that could open the door against for TLC to start and give a big boost to T.J. McConnell. Overall, this is a tough draw for the 76ers – road game against the team with the lowest pace of any NBA team. The Grizzlies biggest weakness is defending the wing, but even that isn’t really worth playing in this spot outside of McConnell. Ben Simmons, who has not been a big fantasy producer of late, and Embiid are both fringe plays considering the opponent and their unforgiving defense, as far as fantasy points are concerned. Dario Saric is an interesting play considering the lack of health the Grizzlies have at the 4.
Memphis: Everyone on this team is hurt, but these injuries could lead us to some of the more popular value plays of the slate. JaMychal Green has already been ruled out, Brandan Wright and Jarell Martin are questionable. Should they sit, that leaves the door open for a couple of rookies, Deyonta Davis and Ivan Rabb, to snag a ton of minutes at the four. Brandan Wright might play if he is feeling well, so he would be my first option if he is a go. Tyreke Evans and Marc Gasol are tough plays here too, despite the elevated pace. Evans has struggled his past two outings and could see a lot of Ben Simmons on the defensive end. Gasol will see Embiid of course and Embiid can force opposing centers into mistakes and work for buckets.
Must-Have Plays: None
Bubble Plays: Dario Saric, Tyreke Evans, Joel Embiid
Value Plays: Wait for injury news
| O/U | Spread | Pace | |
| Miami Heat | X | X | 28 |
| Houston Rockets | X | X | 8 |
Injury News
Questionable: Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson
Miami: This is another game where injury news is going to impact play. I’ll say this, whether Goran Dragic and/or Tyler Johnson play, I think this going to be a Rockets blowout. They are a ridiculous 16-0 now when Paul, Harden and Capela all start. There’s no coincidence to that. At full strength, the Rockets are going to be a tough team to compete with, especially if a team coming in on the road, like the Heat, aren’t at full strength. If Dragic sits and Johnson plays, then Johnson is likely the starting PG. If both sit, which we saw over the weekend, Wayne Ellington would see the PG minutes, but his price has eclipsed the $5K mark and he would be facing Chris Paul defense. The Rockets and Capela are tough on opposing centers, and Whiteside isn’t a guy I can trust to get all the minutes we would need from. Center is loaded anyway, so that makes it even tougher to play. James Johnson and Josh Richardson should see a good set of minutes, but again, they aren’t on my radar.
Houston: LIke I said, I could see this game being a blowout. But if it’s a blowout, it’s likely that Chris Paul and James Harden are the main beneficiaries. Trevor Ariza and Gerald Green should return from their 2-game suspension, but only Ariza is worth considering out of the two. With Harden back, Gerald Green’s price and minutes put him out of play. Capela also is a stay away because I just don’t play the guy and Hassan Whiteside is no slouch either. Eric Gordon will see a lot of second-unit run, so he’s one of the secondary guys on this team that I might consider.
Must-Have Plays: None
Bubble Plays: Chris Paul, James Harden, James Johnson, Josh Richardson, Eric Gordon
Value Plays: Trevor Ariza
| O/U | Spread | Pace | |
| Chicago Bulls | 12 | ||
| New Orleans Pelicans | 225 | -6.5 | 6 |
Injury News
Out: Kris Dunn
Chicago: I wish Kris Dunn was active for this game, it would make it more of an appealing game to stack. We have two higher-paced squads in one of the highest totals on the board. New Orleans isn’t favored by more than a touchdown, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were on the right side of a blowout. With that said, let’s talk about the Bulls. Jerian Grant will be a popular value option at PG with Dunn out, Zach LaVine has returned but continues to see a 20-minute minutes restriction. He’s the one to monitor with Dunn out. Should we hear of a LaVine minutes increase, I definitely think he’s one we could nearly lock in. He’s been a high-usage player since joining the club, and today will be no different, even on a minutes restriction. Justin Holiday should see plenty of shots, but he’s still not a huge ceiling guy. Lauri Markannen, Mirotic and Portis all share time at the four, so it’s truly difficult to determine who will get the most run. Mirotic is a rock-solid high usage guy off the bench, but his minutes aren’t where we like them to be. However, without Anthony Davis on the court, the Pelicans are like daisies in the frontcourt. As for Robin Lopez….ok, good joke, we don’t need to talk about him, obviously.
New Orleans: Anthony Davis is a great play tonight, but it’s DeMarcus Cousins that is one of my top overall plays on the board. Robin Lopez and the Bulls lack of size in the front court is pretty obvious. The Bulls give up a lot of production all around the court, but it’s Davis and Boogie who should really eat. Rondo isn’t trustworthy as he is losing minutes to Ian Clark at times, and Jrue Holiday, who is a great play at guard, even though his price is getting up there. The Bulls lack the ability to defense the wings as well, making Jrue a high-ceiling option as well. Like I said, Kris Dunn would help the Bulls keep things close, but without him, relying on Jerian Grant to run their offense and help keep up with the Pelican’s scoring, has been a little wishy-washy on the Pelicans playing all four quarters.
Must-Have Plays: Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins
Bubble Plays: Jrue Holiday, Justin Holiday, Nikola Mirotic
Value Plays: Jerian Grant
| O/U | Spread | Pace | |
| Phoenix Suns | 4 | ||
| Milwaukee Bucks | 213.5 | -4 | 23 |
Injury News
Out: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Marquese Chriss
Questionable: Malcolm Brogdon
Phoenix: This game is one of my favorite games of the slate and it might be my No. 1 to stack. No Giannis in this one, meaning I like the Suns chances a little bit more to keep things close. Devin Booker and T.J. Warren run the show when it comes to scoring while Tyle Uilis and Isaiah Canaan split the PG shares, rendering them useless for daily fantasy purposes. Dragan Bender has been seeing huge minutes without Chriss on the floor, but he hasn’t done much with them. Wings are where the Bucks are weakest against, but big men like Tyson Chandler have put up respectable lines for fantasy as well. Bender is a decent value play considering his price, minutes and matchup, but his usage is paltry at best. I guess there’s a chance we could see a Greg Monroe appearance in a revenge game, but I wouldn’t count on it since the Suns aren’t on a back-to-back.
Milwaukee: Khris Middleton coming off a triple-double and Eric Bledsoe revenge. Gimme. Gimme. Gimme. They are the eaters of usage with the Greek Freak off the floor and getting a nice pace-up spot, both Bledsoe and Middleton are firmly in play tonight. Brogdon is the one we want to monitor most, he would be a solid value play if he suits up with Giannis out. John Henson isn’t a guy I like to play. He’s not a high usage guy, but he does see 28-30 minutes a game. Tyson Chandler still looms defensively and even though he’s older, he’s no slouch. Oh, and if Brogdon doesn’t play, some form of Tony Snell, Sterling Brown and Mathew Dellavedova will share those minutes.
Must-Have Plays: Devin Booker, Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton
Bubble Plays: T.J. Warren, Dragan Bender
Value Plays: None, but keep an eye out for injury news
| O/U | Spread | Pace | |
| Washington Wizards | 214 | -2 | 13 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 25 |
Injury News
Questionable: Devin Harris
Washington: When I saw this line, I went full on People’s Eyebrow. It’s a pretty high total for a Mavs game and the Wizards are only favored by 2. Washington is pretty much one of those teams that is dead to me for DFS night in and night out. John Wall is easy to fade almost every night, and if he’s not at home, he’e an autofade. Bradley Beal and Otto Porter, the other two main sources of offense are in tough matchups, especially Porter who likely will draw the coverage of Harrison Barnes. Marcin Gortat seems like he is in an awesome spot, and he is actually, but his minutes make me want to bash my head into a wall. The Mavs are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league and big men have ate them for lunch all season. In these two teams previous meeting, Gortat still didn’t see many minutes and put up 19 fantasy points. His price is tempting, but dammit if it isn’t another Admiral Ahkbar for me.
Dallas: With Harris likely out tonight, that leaves J.J. Barea as one of my favorite options from this game. He returned to action against Portland and saw a solid 23 minutes of action in a slower-paced game. Dennis Smith Jr. is the starter, but he’s priced out thanks to his recent production. I never play Wes Matthews because he’s Wes Matthews, so that leaves Harrison Barnes as another solid consistent cash game option. Porter and the Wizards have allowed 41 points per game to opposing SFs and are top ten in rebounds and assists allowed to the position. Barnes is coming off a poor performance against Portland, so I like some home cooking to get him back in the swing of things, though you are paying for the consistency, not the upside, when it comes to his price. Oh, Dirk is cheap, but you never know what kind of minutes the Old German will be getting these days.
Must-Have Plays: None
Bubble Plays: John Wall, Harrison Barnes, Dennis Smith, Jr., Dirk Nowitzki
Value Plays: J.J. Barea
| O/U | Spread | Pace | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 16 | ||
| Denver Nuggets | 211.5 | -3 | 17 |
Injury News
None
Portland: Guards have been tearing up the Nuggets all season long and Damian Lillard, under $9K, is one of my favorite plays of the slate. The Nuggets’s allow opposing PGs to light up the box score each night as they are top-10 in allowances for all the key fantasy stats: points, assists, rebounds, 3s, steals and FG%. With Nurkic and Jokic cancelling each other out, despite this revenge narrative for Nurkic, I like Lillard, and a little bit of McCollum, to be the one to drive the Blazers offense and hopefully keep it close. Aminu, Turner and all of the other guys in this rotation don’t offer much in the way of fantasy goodness. Lillard or bust for me
Denver: We are at a crossroads with this Denver rotation once again. Jamal Murray can’t stay on the court, Will Barton’s minutes fluctuate, Trey Lyles and Mason Plumlee take each other’s minutes away and Jokic’s price has soared for a tough matchup against a motivated Nurkic. So where do we go for safety and consistency? Gary Harris should see all the minutes he can handle, so he’s one option. Wilson Chandler sees minutes, but his usage is one of the lowest on the team, so he’s unreliable. I think this is a stay away for me overall unless we see Murray sit again, which means I would be firing up Will Barton in lineups as he would see the starting point guard minutes, well, assuming Mike Malone would do something so smart.
Must-Have Plays: Damian Lillard
Bubble Plays: C.J. McCollum, Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic
Value Plays: None
| O/U | Spread | Pace | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | X | X | 24 |
| LA Clippers | X | X | 11 |
Injury News
Out: DeAndre Jordan
Questionable: Jimmy Butler
Minnesota: The later games are a little uglier in my opinion, especially this one when we may not know the status of Jimmy Butler. His absence would open up all kinds of usage and value, but for now we have to pretend he is likely to play. If he does, he’s an elite option at SG in a pace-up spot for the T-Wolves. Jeff Teague and KAT are firmly in play against the high-pace Clippers who will be without their starting center. KAT really should eat here as the Clippers don’t have much to match in size at the 5, but against he’s pricey, sometimes unreliable and center is strong. I bet he will be lower owned than he should be, but that still doesn’t mean he should be played with all of the other options. Jeff Teague should see the lion’s share of the minutes at PG and is always a consistent option. Same with Taj Gibson.
Los Angeles: Blake Griffin is one of the more obvious choices to play in this game, especially with DeAndre out of the mix. Lou Williams eats a lot of usage on this team and he’s coming off a 70-point fantasy performance against Utah, but he had 10 steals! That kind of performance will be hard to match this time around, especially if Jimmy Buckets suits up. Milos Teodosic continues to offer up dimes and minutes. He has a great matchup against Teague and Minnesota, who are top-10 in points, rebounds and assists allowed to fellow point guards. His price is low enough that I could see him being a last-man in value play tonight. The main beneficiary of Jordan’s absence has been Montrezl Harrell, and that should stand once again versus Minny, though he only saw 18 minutes against Utah the other night. I guess he isn’t completely safe either.
Must Have Plays: Blake Griffin, Jimmy Butler
Bubble Plays: Lou Williams, Milos Teodosic, Jeff Teague, Karl-Anthony Towns, Taj Gibson
Value Plays: None
