We are flipping and flopping things this week for the GPP and Cash Game Indexes.
From this point and beyond, the GPP Index will release prior to my Cash Game Index.
This will allow more time for me to work through my process as news breaks throughout the week.
Last week, we saw moves like Devonta Freeman and Josh Gordon being ruled out, changing the landscape for DFS, especially in cash games.
The extra time for the cash game article also allows me an extra day or two to narrow things down.
The Cash Game Index nailed a lot of solid plays, but I will get into all of that later this week.
For now, let’s get into some of my top plays for GPPs in Week 3.
And how things change heading into this week? Josh Gordon dominated the news over the past few days, and now he’s a Patriot. Will he be the next Randy Moss or the next Kenny Britt?
We won’t have to worry about that on this slate, thank goodness.
As always, this particular write up is protected, so you will need to sign up for our 7-day free trial or monthly service to view the full product.
QUARTERBACKS
Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers – $7,100
Analysis: He’s priced $100 more than Patrick Mahomes, who is likely the chalk at the upper-level tier of QBs, and may be the chalk at the position overall. Rodgers should go overlooked because of Mahomes and with the value in the mid-tier at this position, even though he’s going up against the Redskins, who allowed plenty of fantasy points to Andrew Luck.
Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles – $6,200
Analysis: Will you be able to pull the trigger to play Wentz in his first game back from injury? He certainly has the matchup to make you feel better – Indy. Wentz is a tournament play due to him not being acclimated to game speed yet and we don’t know how his bum knee will hold up.
Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals – $5,700
Analysis: The Bengals will be without Joe Mixon, meaning Giovani Bernard is the go-to back. He’s not a 20-carry workhorse, so expectations should be more on Dalton to get the ball down the field to A.J. Green, Joe Ross and Tyler Boyd. Matt Ryan scored a lot of fantasy points against the Panthers in Week 2, but he had two rushing TDs. You can’t expect that from Dalton, however, he has thrown 4 TDs to Green already and Green thrives on the road.
Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts – $5,600
Analysis: The Eagles were torched by Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 2, Andrew Luck has been dinking and dunking. However, he’s still got T.Y. and he’s still got two very capable tight ends. Luck’s price seems too cheap in a game where he should be throwing a ton…again.
RUNNING BACKS
Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints – $9,500
Analysis: Christian McCaffrey lit up this team with 14 catches and if New Orleans learns anything from their narrow escape against Cleveland, it’s to get Kamara the damn ball. He’s the highest-priced RB in a great matchup against a defense that can’t stop pass-catching running backs. People may want to pay down at RB this week with all the value opening up due to injuries.
David Johnson – Arizona Cardinals – $7,200
Analysis: They are daring us to play DJ. Larry Fitzgerald is hurt and may miss Week 3. DJ’s coaches have said they are going to start lining him in the slot like he was utilized under Bruce Arians. The Cardinals are awful, but Josh Rosen could be in the lineup soon and at least the Cardinals catch the Bears on a short week after an emotional win on Monday Night.
Chris Thompson – Washington Redskins – $6,300
Analysis: Honestly, Thompson might be cash game worthy this week against the high-powered Green Bay Packers. Thompson has 4 carries for 1 yard against Indy, but tallied 13 catches on 14 targets. If you tell me this type of target share and usage is coming out of the backfield for Thompson every week, then I will have exposure every week, until Thompson gets hurt (another reason he’s a tournament play).
Kareem Hunt – Kansas City Chiefs – $6,000
Analysis: Another cheap price daring us to play him more than we probably feel comfortable with. The Chiefs/Niners game will be the premier contest of the week and Hunt is the “workhorse” on this team. He’s not catching the passes we want to see from him out of the backfield, but should the Chiefs fall behind (something they haven’t done yet this season), then that’s where the targets should increase. He’s getting more affordable for his current production, so $6K is going to be hard to pass up.
Latavius Murray – Minnesota Vikings – $5,800
Analysis: I was really hoping Murray’s price would be really cheap this week considering he hasn’t touched the ball much. But it’s the Buffalo Bills for the Vikes this week and clearly, the pricing algorithm for DraftKings configured Murray playing in a blowout, and maybe playing a ton should Dalvin Cook’s injury be a hammy issue and not a cramp.
Matt Breida – San Francisco 49ers – $5,400
Analysis: He made my cash game list last week, but there are plenty of other cheap RB options touching the ball more and getting passes out of the backfield that I like more than Breida. We got lucky in cash hitting on Breida because he broke a 60+ yard touchdown run. Even with a lead most of the game, he didn’t see any kind of extra volume, so he has to do a lot more with less at an elevated price point this week despite playing in the premier game of the week.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs – $8,500
Analysis: TyFreak’s price continues to skyrocket and he’s still only seeing 8 to 9 targets per game. His TD rate is ridiculous and he’s in a game expected to shootout, but his price is too risky to go overweight on in cash for me.
Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons – $7,900
Analysis: Saints/Falcons will be another popular game to target this week, but it’s hard to trust the Atlanta passing game every week. Julio’s price also falls into that category of “daring to play a ton of in tournaments” for this week. A date with Marshawn Lattimore seems scary, but Julio is the cream of the crop and he should be valued in tournaments in that sense.
A.J. Green – Cincinnati Bengals – $7,500
Analysis: Green and the Bengals get a date with the defensive-minded Panthers on the road, where Green always seems to come to play. He has 4 TDs in his first two games and this Cincy offense looks like it’s clicking. No Joe Mixon this week means more passing down opportunities in my book, and Green is going to see his share.
Amari Cooper – Oakland Raiders – $6,600
Analysis: Where has Amari Cooper been all these games? He had 10 catches against Denver, a tough milestone to meet against the Denver defense. With that said, Oakland is traveling West to East to face the Dolphins, so that’s concerning, but I’ll hang my hat on Amari finding the end zone this week at a cheaper price for the caliber of receiver he could be moving forward.
Allen Robinson – Chicago Bears – $5,400
Analysis: Robinson is getting the lion’s share of targets, but why he isn’t a cash game play this week is that he could draw Patrick Peterson’s coverage most of this week’s game. Also, the Cardinals are so bad that Chicago may not need to pass much to get the win. But Robinson has the looks, the target share and upside to break a slate at this price.
Jacksonville Jaguars Receivers – Keelan Cole, I have a feeling, will be a popular cash game play this week, maybe even in tournaments. I don’t think I can go there or to Dante Moncrief or Dede Westbrook except for in tournaments this week against Tennessee. Jacksonville is another team that could get up early and cruise to a win with Tennessee probably playing either Blaine Gabbert at QB or a less-than-healthy Marcus Mariota.
Tavon Austin – Dallas Cowboys – $3,600
Analysis: A splash play extraordinaire, Austin flashed against New York why the Cowboys have him on their roster. He’s not going to see the volume, but he’s returning kicks on special teams, a big-play threat and a guy the Cowboys want to get the ball in unique ways each game.
Christian Kirk – Arizona Cardinals – $3,500
Analysis: Fitzgerald may not play, Brice Butler is gone, David Johnson isn’t being used like DJ of days of yore, so who does that leave to catch passes on this team? To me, it’s Kirk. He had an increase in targets in Week 2 from Week 1, so as he gets more comfortable, Kirk should see more volume with Fitz out of the lineup. Kirk has the speed and big-play ability to make value on one catch.
TIGHT ENDS
Jordan Reed – Washington Redskins – $5,400
Analysis: Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce or paying down at TE will be a popular move this week, leaving Jordan Reed on an island. His injury risk never makes him safe, but he could be in for a field day against Green Bay should the Redskins fall behind in this one.
Jimmy Graham – Green Bay Packers – $4,800
Analysis: On the other side of the Green Bay/Washington game, we saw Jimmy Graham awaken from the depths of hell to put up nearly 100 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota, though Graham’s TD got called back. Davante Adams should draw a lot of Josh Norman this week, meaning Graham will hopefully have some extra opportunity against a defense that allowed a passing touchdown to Eric Ebron last week.
Trey Burton – Chicago Bears – $3,900
Analysis: With 4 and 6 targets in the first two games, it’s safe to say that I am disappointed in Burton’s usage in this fast-paced Bears offense. He’s still got all the upside and is the premier cheap play at tight end for tournaments. The Bears might get ahead early and never look back, meaning they don’t need Burton in the passing game. But on the off chance, they need to pass more than expected, Burton has lots of touchdown upside.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Houston Texans (vs. New York Giants) – $2,800
Analysis: After flopping big time, people will hop off the Texans despite being in another awesome matchup against the Giants, who have scraps for an offensive line.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Denver Broncos) – $2,800
Analysis: The Ravens are at home and the Denver offense isn’t anything to write home about. But after allowing Cincy to tear them apart, the Ravens, who are missing Jimmy Smith, get moved to the GPP side this week.
Miami Dolphins (vs. Oakland Raiders) – $2,700
Analysis: West Coast team traveling to the East Coast for an 11 a.m. game. I will take my chances with the Dolphins against an offense that has looked fairly anemic to start the season (minus BeastMode).
Green Bay Packers (at Washington Redskins) – $2,600
Analysis: When you let Indy keep your offense in check when you are the home team, it’s difficult not to want to target a defense that puts pressure on the quarterback and forces turnovers. This price is factoring in an OT tie from the Vikes and Packers last week, where Minnesota, a very loaded offense, put up 4 touchdowns (one late in the game to force OT). The Packers feel undervalued considering their opponent.
