The next few weeks will feature smaller main slates due to scheduled games in London.
Gag me.
I would be very happy to hear the London games were nixed, but that’s not happening any time soon.
But what is happening soon is Week 7 and for the GPP Index only, I will throw in a play or two from the 8:30 a.m. (Central) London game. I plan to play a lot of the Thursday-Monday slate this week across all sites. The 10-game main slate is another ugly one, but the London game, Sunday Night Football and especially Monday Night Football, have all kinds of fantasy goodness.
The Packers and Steelers are two of the better teams with byes this week, too.
And this is the week that Julio Jones trolls all of us and gets his touchdowns…because he plays on Monday night (insert eye roll).
So check out this week’s GPP plays from DailyOverlay (including the early Sunday game), give us a follow on Twitter (@DailyOverlay) and me too (@HotdogDaily_DFS). Good luck this week!
WIDE RECEIVERS
Jarvis Landry – Cleveland Browns – $7,300
Analysis: Landry took a dump on my lineups last week, specifically cash. I was able to destroy my cash games (see the Cash Game Index later this week) despite his sloppy score. Now he’s $700 more in a premium matchup against the Tampa Bay Bucs, who are first overall in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. This is a classic “don’t be a results oriented DFS player” and go back to the well.
Keenan Allen – Los Angeles Chargers – $7,200
Analysis: Allen is one of the many reasons I love the Thursday to Monday slate. It’s a shame DraftKings contests are effing terrible. Either way, Allen has been quiet on the fantasy front of late with Melvin Gordon, Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams putting up a lot of fantasy points over the past few weeks. It’s Allen’s turn in the slot this week against a Titans defense that can’t be trusted.
Brandin Cooks – Los Angeles Rams – $7,100
Analysis: It doesn’t appear Cooper Kupp is going to play football this week. Maybe he does, and whomever draws the start will be a solid punt play for cash. But the Rams are a heavy favorite on the road in San Francisco this week. Gurley is a cash game staple for myriad of reasons, but especially if the Rams stomp and blowout the 49ers. But should the Rams get in a shootout, which is possible considering the success San Fran has been having offensively despite no Jimmy G, Cooks and his counterpart below are going to be putting up lots of fantasy points for tournaments.
Robert Woods – Los Angeles Rams – $7,000
Analysis: I can’t pay $7K for Woods in cash, which I can just take Goff and Gurley in cash and soak up all of the Rams usage. But for tournaments, sans Cooper Kupp, Woods because an excellent play, especially if this game with San Fran, who is top-12 in fantasy points allowed to wideouts this season.
DeAndre Hopkins – Houston Texans – $6,900
Analysis: Hopkins is a Milly Maker winner this week. Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye are excellent corners, we know that. But Nuk gets the Jaguars pricing this week and he’s literally matchup proof. No one will play him despite his overwhelmingly cheap price and matchup. But I love Nuk for tournaments and perhaps even cash because he ate this defense alive last year relative to his price and usage. In two games against Jacksonville, Nuk had 29 targets, 11 catches, 135 yards and 2 TDs.
Josh Gordon – New England Patriots – $5,600
Analysis: Josh Gordon’s role in the NE offense is trending up, snagging 9 targets last week. He failed to reach the end zone, but his matchup has depressed his price as well. He’s super cheap and the Bears have actually are top-5 in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. People may not realize that and think the Bears don’t have a weakness. But let me remind you that Brock Osweiler won someone $1 million last week against the Bears. Anything is possible.
RUNNING BACKS
Melvin Gordon – Los Angeles Chargers – $8,400
Analysis: Gordon away from home is money in the bank. He smashed on the road last week despite not having a full workload. But he didn’t need a full workload as the Chargers manhandled the Browns. The Titans are weaker against the run than the pass evidenced by Alex Collins 2 TD performance last week.
Kenyan Drake – Miami Dolphins – $4,900
Analysis: It’s too bad the Lions are facing the Dolphins this week. We can’t use the Lions’ weakness in cash this week because you can’t trust the timeshare in Miami. But for tournaments, Drake, who has seen double-digit touches the past two weeks, is in line for an uptick in production as the Lions have allowed 145 yards rushing per game and 5th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.
Kerryon Johnson – Detroit Lions – $4,500
Analysis: Kerryon Johnson is most definitely in the definition of a timeshare, but I still think he’s viable this week in cash if you need savings. The problem is you just may not need him and the timeshare provides more volatility than it’s worth. However, his matchup is a smash spot against the Dolphins, who 4th overall in fantasy points allowing to RBs. Drake has had targets of 6 and 11 the past two weeks. Adam Gase just can’t be trusted yet in cash.
QUARTERBACKS
Tom Brady – New England Patriots – $6,100
Analysis: Brady’s ownership is lower than it should be this week. But if you aren’t convinced the Bears aren’t soft against QBs, let me remind you of two words – Brock. Osweiler.
Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints – $5,700
Analysis: Outdoors, on the road and against the Ravens, three ingredients that are surely to have Brees be overlooked this week. But sometimes you gotta price enforce and Brees still has tons of weapons available to him to make the Ravens defense look silly.
TIGHT ENDS
Rob Gronkowski – New England Patriots – $6,000
Analysis: Is Gronk dunzo? I am starting to think so. For my season-long leagues, I certainly hope not, but we haven’t seen him be productive since Week 1. I think this week, for tournament purposes, is the perfect time to keep trying to chase. Gronk isn’t going to be owned because of the matchup (sound familiar). His price is in a weird tier of players and so people will find ways around him.
George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers – $5,000
Analysis: Kittle has 21 targets, 15 catches, 238 yards and 1 TD in his three games with CJ Beathard at QB. The 49ers are in a weird win-win situation for fantasy. The Rams are huge favorites despite being on the road, so if they get up big, the 49ers will be throwing and throwing to keep up. But if the 49ers win or are winning late even, then the 49ers likely had to throw the ball a lot to score so many points. Kittle would be heavily involved again in both of those scenarios.
Trey Burton – Chicago Bears – $4,300
Analysis: Love the Bears/Pats this week as a sneaky shootout, can’t you tell? Burton has found the end zone in 3 of 5 contests this year. I was hoping he would have monster usage this year, but his target share is pretty low. However, I like him this week because I like the shootout potential and the Patriots are 9th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season. I trust head coach to attack the Patriots’ weaknesses in a bounce back game at home.
DEFENSES/SPECIAL TEAMS
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Houston Texans) – $3,600
Analysis: After getting their ass whipped by the Cowboys, I fully expect the Jaguars, who are back at home, to make life miserable for DeShaun Watson, who has been hit 66 times already and sacked 25 of those times. The Jags are going to be angry and I don’t think Houston will like them when they’re angry.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Buffalo Bills) – $3,300
Analysis: Are the Colts playing the Buffalo Bills? If the answer is yes, then you play their defense, especially against Nathan Peterman at QB. The only reason the Colts are in the GPP Index is because of their price relative to their lack of defensive ability and talent. But I’ll take that at home facing the worst QB in the NFL.
Chicago Bears (vs. New England Patriots) – $2,500
Analysis: Remember how I like a lot of Pats this week? I also like the Bears defense because they are priced like the Pats are going to eat their lunch. But in reality, this is a bounceback spot for the Bears, at home, coming off a bad loss and not getting one sack last week. Chicago is averaging 5.5 more fantasy points at home than on the road this season.
