Derrick. Henry.
Four touchdowns on less than 15 carries and over 200 yards.
Sitting on my bench in the fantasy playoffs…but there’s one silver lining, I have Henry in the quarterfinals of DRAFT’s Mini Best Ball Championship…and I am the only one who has him. Just gotta finish in the top three and move to the semifinals. Another top three finish and it’s the finals, fighting for a $20K top prize.
But I won’t be getting my hopes up just yet.
If you want to know who I like for cash games this week, please check out the Cash Game Index.
Now let’s get on with it.
QUARTERBACKS
Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs – $7,000
Analysis: I understand that Kansas City is matchup proof, but the Ravens are still the No. 1 defense and games at Arrowhead typically fall under projected totals. The Chiefs defense will tighten up and I am not convinced Baltimore can keep up scoring should the Chiefs get ahead. But with that said, Baltimore’s defense is the best defense against the run, the Chiefs don’t have a running back they trust to hand the ball off consistently and so the Chiefs will take to the skies and rely on defense. KC is averaging 37 points per game and 316 passing yards per game.
Phillip Rivers – Los Angeles Chargers – $6,500
Analysis: No Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler is getting worn down this late in the season and the Bengals are allowing 30.9 points and 279 passing yards per game. High floor, high ceiling smash with blowout potential.
Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,200
Analysis: Home quarterback in the week’s highest projected scoring game against a Saints’ defense allowing 279 passing yards per game through the air, which is tied for second highest passing yards allowed by a defense by teams on this main slate. Bucs don’t run the ball well and won’t against the league’s second best run defense in the NFL.
Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens – $5,700
Analysis: Second road start of the season, at the toughest place to play in all of the NFL. The yards he gets with his legs offers tons of upside and keeps him in tournament discussions. He has 156 rushing yards in the three games he’s started, but he has 3 INTs, 5 fumbles and one fumble lost in that span.
Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills – $5,500
Analysis: I am probably late to the Josh Allen train, so he cannot be considered for cash games this week. But his rushing prowess in his past two games certainly reasons to be optimistic about Allen for DFS and fantasy. If this is the new trend for him in this offense, especially after cutting Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes at receiver this week, then Allen is going to have to be considered for tournaments every week. Here he is at home against the Jets, so we will see if his 234 rushing yards the past two games is a fluke or a trend. The Jets allow 128 rushing yards and 25 points per game. In the last four games, the Jets have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing teams.
RUNNING BACKS
Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints – $8,100
Analysis: CMC, Saquon and Zeke are cash game options this week, but it’s Kamara who has a really high ceiling, but lower floor with Mark Ingram back in the mix. As a whole, the Saints have been running more and spreading around the love in the passing game. Kamara is going to get his touches and he’s lit this defense on fire in the past. The Bucs have surrendered the 8th most fantasy points to running backs in their past four games.
Aaron Jones – Green Bay Packers – $7,200
Analysis: No Mike McCarthy, burned the world last week despite getting in the end zone, and has a chance to be mired in a timeshare with Jamaal Williams like last week since we don’t know exactly how interim coach Joe Philbin will run this part of the offense. Hopefully he lets Rodgers have the reigns and Rodgers feeds himself and Jones.
LeSean McCoy – Buffalo Bills – $5,000
Analysis: I might see if I can pair Shady and Josh Allen together and soak up all of this offensive production against the Jets. Shady lit up this team for 113 yards and a touchdown last time out.
Gus Edwards – Baltimore Ravens – $4,500
Analysis: Edwards is one of many pivots off of Samuels and Wilson. The Chiefs are allowing 122 yards rushing per game. In his three starts, Edwards has 21, 23 and 17 carries for 315 yards and a touchdown. In a PPR format, Edwards needs TDs to assure his salary.
Justin Jackson – Los Angeles Chargers – $3,800
Analysis: Justin Jackson looked like the better back last week against Pittsburgh on Monday night. He’s another pivot who could see plenty of touches to pay off his salary against a Bengals’ defense getting flamed by running backs for 153 yards per game this season, but allowing 167 yards per game and 1.75 TDs per game in their last four.
Stevan Ridley – Pittsburgh Steelers – $3,300
Analysis: Jaylen Samuels was a tight end in college, caught tons of passes. Don’t expect him to see a James Conner type workload. The carries will go to Ridley, who can fall into the endzone and pay off his near-min price salary.
LeGarrette Blount – Detroit Lions – $3,900
Analysis: No Kerryon Johnson, facing the Cardinals who are allowing the 6th most fantasy points per game to RBs in their last four games. In that span, Arizona has allowed 111.5 rushing yards and 1.25 TDs per game. They also have been getting torched by pass-catching backs, giving up an average of 7 catches for 43 yards, which is about as Theo Riddick as it gets.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Juju Smith-Schuster – Pittsburgh Steelers – $8,200
Analysis: Lots of stud names in the upper tiers of wide receivers this week, likely Schuster goes overlooked at his elevated price tag against a bad defense.
Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs – $8,000
Analysis: Price has come down $1,100 in a matchup he can torch. No one will play him after last week’s huge dud at $9,100
Amari Cooper – Dallas Cowboys – $6,600
Analysis: Philly is 7th in yards allowed to wide receivers in their last 4 games and are second overall in yards allowed to receivers. The Eagles secondary is all kinds of banged up, but this offense still runs through Zeke. But Cooper has the upside to break big plays as we saw on Thanksgiving.
T.Y. Hilton – Indianapolis Colts – $6,300
Analysis: Favorable weather game indoors, on a fast track and against a Houston secondary that was flamed by Indy for 437 passing yards. In that game, Hilton went for 4-115-0. Without Jack Doyle in the lineup this, Hilton has targets of 13, 10 and 9 and catches of 8, 7 and 9 in that same span for 357 and 2 TDs.
Calvin Ridley – Atlanta Falcons – $5,200
Analysis: If Julio is limited or doesn’t play because of his injury, Calvin Ridley at this price becomes a near lock. He’s boom or bust, but the boom is huge, while the bust won’t sink you, but it won’t win you anything either. He has 8 TDs on the season and is averaging 14 fantasy points per game.
Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $4,900
Analysis: Godwin might my late week cash game list this week. DeSean Jackson is not going to play. In games that Godwin starts when Jackson is out, the Penn State stand out has the following lines 3-98-0, 7-111-1 and 5-101-1 on 24 targets. The Saints are allowing the most fantasy points per game to receivers this season and are first in yards allowed. With Mike Evans likely getting Marshawn Lattimore treatment, Godwin stands to benefit with an easier route to success for he and his quarterback.
Antonio Callaway – Cleveland Browns – $3,900
Analysis: The guy had two long touchdowns called back last week, he’s got Mayfield’s eye downfield. He’s still under 4K and squares off against a Carolina defense that is fifth in yards allowed per game to receivers and is also allowing nearly 40 fantasy points per game to the position.
TIGHT ENDS
Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs – $6,700
Analysis: The Ravens are 11th in fantasy points allowed to TEs this season, giving up an average of 5 catches for 62 yards per game. But this is Kansas City and the only quality tight ends the Ravens have faced this season are Austin Hooper, Jared Cook and Tyler Eifert. Everyone else is about average or below. In their past four games, the Ravens are allowing 4 catches for 55 yards and a touchdown.
Eric Ebron – Indianapolis Colts – $5,700
Analysis: Ebron is going to be popular once again despite the big price bump. I can’t pay for him at that price in cash. The Texans have been a gaping hole for tight ends, allowing 6 catchers for 80 yards on an average of 10 targets per game over their last four. Ebron has target totals of 16 and 7 the past two games, for a 126 yards, 15 catches and 2 touchdowns.
George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers – $5,500
Analysis: The Denver defense is so banged up and is now without Chris Harris, their stud slot cornerback. That loss combined with their inefficiency defending tight ends, make Kittle a great contrarian play this week. Denver is allowing the 9th most fantasy points per game to tight ends over their last four games, but mostly due to not allowing them to reach the end zone. Other than that, they are allowing the fourth most catches and sixth most yards per game to the position in their last four.
Vance McDonald – Pittsburgh Steelers – $3,800
Analysis: Vance might be one of my favorite tournament tight ends this week. Kelce rocked the Raiders last week and while Jesse James does eat into his production, McDonald still sees an average of 5 targets, nearly 4 targets and 42 yards per game this season.
