NFL – Week 4 Showdown (Thursday) – PHI v GB

NFL Week 4 Showdown – PHI v GB

We may actually have a good Thursday night game this week with two teams the might even score some points when the Eagles travel to Green Bay to face the Packers. Cash game lineups for this week’s showdown slate seems pretty straight forward, but I think there is an interesting angle to take with your GPP lineup.

Monday night’s results didn’t go as planned since I went with the wrong value WR as I made the mistake of looking for a high floor player and not focusing on upside potential with Taylor Gabriel. So, that puts my Showdown experiment in the red for the season.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers

King

• Davante Adams – The decision for King on Thursday night in Cash games comes down to Davante Adams or Aaron Rodgers against a weak Eagles pass defense. I’ll give the edge to Adams who has been somewhat underutilized so far this year and remarkably hasn’t scored a TD yet. That should change on Thursday.

Cash Core

• Aaron Rodgers – As discussed above this is a great spot for Rodgers and the Packers passing game. The Eagles pass defense ranks 22nd DVOA this season and have allowed 300 passing yards (26th) and 2.3 TD passes (25th) per game.
• Zach Ertz – Another marquee player who hasn’t managed to find the end zone yet this season is Ertz. He does lead the team in red-zone targets and is heavily involved in the passing game with 30 targets through three weeks. The Packers defense has been good against TEs this season, but they haven’t faced one as good as Ertz yet.
• Miles Sanders – I think Sanders has the highest floor of any of the RBs in this game. The Eagles are stout against the run which worries me for the Aaron Jones/Jamaal Williams split backfield. Meanwhile, Sanders has more carries, targets, and red zone chances than fellow back Jordan Howard.

GPP

I know I just wrote about how Sanders is the safer Eagles back, but I have a sense that Howard might have the higher ceiling in this matchup. The Eagles have fallen behind early in every game this season which seems like it should happen again this week, but what if it doesn’t. If the Eagles can work with a lead, then Howard should be more involved and does have a good matchup as the Packers run defense ranks 22nd DVOA this year and has allowed 5.03 YPC (27th) with 1.0 TDs (22nd) per game to RBs. So, Howard in the King slot, and then load up on the Packers passing game including a pivot to Geronimo Allison instead of Marques Valdes-Scantling.

Best Bet

Eagles/Packers Over 45.5

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