MLB DFS – On the Hill – April 1st

MLB DFS Picks – April 1st

It’s kind of hard to believe that the new MLB season is here and starting on time with some fans in the stands. After taking a hiatus in the abbreviated 2020 season from writing the On the Hill article, I’m back this year for more “3 up” and “3 down” advice for your DFS lineups. Today’s article targeted the afternoon slate. Enjoy Opening Day with a free “On the Hill.”

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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…

3 Up

Ace

Tyler Glasnow (FD-$10,000 / DK-$8,800)

• Glasnow had a 38.2% strikeout rate last season building on the 33% rate he had in 2019
• The Marlins had the 10th highest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching last year
• The Rays are a decent-sized favorite despite being on the road

Value

Luis Castillo (FD-$8,900 / DK-$9,200)

• Finding “value” on Opening Day is a challenge, so instead of rostering a sub-par option, I’ll go with another high strikeout pitcher like Castillo who is a little bit of a “value” on FanDuel
• Castillo’s strikeout rate has risen every season up to 11.4 K/9 (30.5%) last season
• Cold temps and damp conditions give a bump to pitchers

Darkhorse

Brandon Woodruff (FD-$8,700 / DK-$8,000)

• Woodruff is another pitcher who is still on an upward trajectory in strikeout rate with a 31.1% mark last season building on the 29% rate the previous year
• The Twins had the 7th highest strikeout rate against righties last season
• Good pivot off of Twins starter Kenta Maeda who will likely be more popular

3 Down

Top Stacks

Padres vs. Madison Bumgarner

Manny Machado (FD-$4,000 / DK-$5,700)
Fernando Tatis Jr. (FD-$4,300 / DK-$5,700)
Tommy Pham (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,100)
Jurickson Profar (FD-$2,300 / DK-$3,200)

• The Padres have the second-highest Vegas implied run total on the slate
• By my metrics, the Padres right-handed bats have the highest projected wOBA and ISO
• Look to save some money on your Padres stack by using Pham and adding in an inexpensive Profar at the end of the lineup for a wraparound stack

Royals vs. Kyle Gibson

Jorge Soler (FD-$3,000 / DK-$2,800)
Whit Merrifield (FD-$3,300 / DK-$5,200)
Andrew Benintendi (FD-$2,700 / DK-$4,000)
Carlos Santana (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,600)

• Gibson allowed a wOBA of .350 or above to both sides of the plate last season
• The Royals have the third-highest Vegas implied run total on the slate
• A few of the Royals bats are underpriced given their spot in the lineup and strong matchup

Contrarian Stack

Cubs vs. Chad Kuhl

 Ian Happ (FD-$3,000 / DK-$4,400)
Anthony Rizzo (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,800)
Joc Pederson (FD-$2,700 / DK-$3,400)
Willson Contreras (FD-$2,900 / DK-$5,000)

• Kuhl has allowed a .361 wOBA and 1.45 HR/9 to left-handed hitters over his career
• The cold weather is somewhat of a concern, but it could also keep ownership low on a Cubs stack

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