NFL Hot Sheet – Divisional Round

Time for the Divisional Round of the playoffs which should provide a lot of fun and exciting games for the sports fan and DFS player. There are plenty of ways you can go when building Cash or GPP lineups this weekend on either a two-game or the full four-game slates. Let’s dive in to see my top DFS plays

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com. Rankings for receivers by position (WR/TE) are based on grades from ProFootballFocus (PFF).

Divisional Round Hot Sheet

Top DFS Plays

QB

• Josh Allen (BUF) – The Bills and Chiefs matchup carries the highest Vegas total of the weekend and Allen has the highest likelihood of piling up rushing yards and a rushing TD of any QB left. The Chiefs pass defense ranked 23rd DVOA and allowed 260 yards (26th) and 1.6 TD passes (20th) over the last five weeks of the regular season.
• Aaron Rodgers (GB) – The Packers are going to need to pass the ball the be successful against the 49ers defense which has been stout against the run all season, ranking 2nd DVOA allowing just 3.63 YPC (2nd) to RBs. However, they rank 16th DVOA against the pass and allowed 7.51 yards per attempt (27th) over the last five weeks of the regular season.
• Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – I don’t think I would go with Tannehill in Cash games but I like him in GPPs against a Bengals pass defense that ranks 24th DVOA and has allowed 244 yards (22nd) and 1.8 TD passes (24th) per game over the last five weeks of the regular season. Tannehill also has sneak rushing potential.

RB

• Derrick Henry (TEN) – Henry’s workload and effectiveness could be up for debate, but the Titans are a home favorite against a Bengals run defense allowing 4.9 YPC (26th) to RBs over the last five games of the regular season. They also allowed 83 rushing yards on 13 carries (6.38 YPC) to Josh Jacobs last week.
• Leonard Fournette (TB) – Assuming Fournette gets the green light on Sunday, look for him to go right back into a workhorse workload against the Rams. Fournette could be busy in the passing game and at the goal line in this matchup.
• Eli Mitchell (SF) – Mitchell will get another heavy workload as the back has tallied at least 21 carries in six straight games. The Packers have allowed 5.6 receptions (26th) per game to RBs over the last five games and are allowing 5.06 YPC (28th) to RBs over the last five games.
• Jerick McKinnon (KC) – McKinnon was the biggest surprise of Wild Card weekend and even if Clyde Edwards-Helaire is active this week, McKinnon has earned a big part of the Chief backfield snaps and touches. The Bills can be run on allowing 4.5 YPC (19th) and 1.0 TDs (23rd) on the ground to RBs over the last five weeks of the regular season.

WR

• Cooper Kupp (LAR) – The Rams didn’t need a big game from Kupp to beat the Cardinals but they will need a big day from him to topple the Bucs. Kupp had nine catches for 96 yards a pair of scores against the Bucs early in the season and the Bucs have allowed 14.2 receptions (30th) for 163 yards (24th) per game to WRs this season.
• Davante Adams (GB) – Adams exceeded 100 receiving yards in five of the last six full games he played to end the season and he lit up the 49ers early in the season with 12 receptions for 132 yards and a score. The 49ers allowed 12.4 receptions (19th) for 171 yards (26th), and 1.2 TDs (24th) per game to WRs over the last five weeks of the regular season.
• Tyreek Hill (KC) – Love the price on Hill this week given the game environment and his ability to make big plays. He had 13 targets in the matchup against the Bills earlier this season but only managed 63 yards, look for more downfield shots for Hill this time around.
• Julio Jones (TEN) – The only reason Jones is on this list over A.J. Brown is due to the salary saving he can provide. Jones showed he is finally getting healthy with five catches for 58 yards and a score in the season finale.
• Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) – McKenzie had six touches last week and turned them into 74 yards. He also gets some involvement near the goal line. Multiple ways for McKenzie to get a “splash” play and be worth his low salary.
• Randall Cobb (GB) – The veteran and close friend of Rodgers is expected to return to the field this week. Cobb hasn’t played since Week 12, but his reconnection with Rodgers shouldn’t be an issue given their familiarity with each other. I like Cobb even more if Marquez Valdes-Scantling is unable to return this week which would push Allen Lazard to the outside and free up more snaps for Cobb.

TE

• Rob Gronkowski (TB) – Gronkowski has had at least five catches in each of the last three games topping 100 yards twice and finding the end zone last week. He remains one of the most trusted targets left for Tom Brady and could get peppered with targets while Mike Evans draws a lot of coverage from Jalen Ramsey.
• George Kittle (SF) – Kittle has become the forgotten man in the 49ers offense being held under 30 yards in four straight games without a score during that stretch. However, Kittle has had some big days against the Packers in the past including seven catches for 92 yards earlier this season.
• Anthony Firkser (TEN) – Firkser had seven catches for 80 yards over the last two weeks of the season and scored a touchdown in both games. The Bengals allowed 5.7 receptions (29th) for 64 yards (28th), and 0.5 TDs (21st) per game to TEs this season.

DST

• Packers (GB)
• Buccaneers (TB)
• Titans (TEN)

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