NFL Hot Sheet – Week 1 – 2022

NFL DFS Hot Sheet – Week 1

NFL is back and so is the DFS Hot Sheet for another season! The Hot Sheet uses statistical analysis to highlight the most favorable matchups to attack when building your DFS lineups. The Top Plays section lists the top options to consider at each position with a focus on DraftKings and Cash game lineups. Although there are usually some strong GPPs building blocks in there also. Finally, in the Top Bets section, I’ll highlight a few sides and totals to consider wagering on. So, with that let’s see who is “hot” for the Week 1 main slate.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com. Rankings for receivers by position (WR/TE) are based on grades from ProFootballFocus (PFF).

Week 1 Hot Sheet

Top Plays

QB

• Jalen Hurts (PHI) – The Eagles/Lions game has one of the higher Vegas totals on the slate with a fairly tight line. The Lions pass defense ranked 27th DVOA last season and allowed 8.03 yards per attempt (31st) and 1.82 touchdown passes (27th) per game. Add in some rushing yards and potential rushing score and Hurts is my top Cash game option.
• Kyler Murray (ARI) – The Cardinals/Chiefs matchup has the highest Vegas total on the main slate featuring two strong offenses. The Chiefs pass defense ranked 23rd DVOA last season and also ranked 27th in rushing yards allowed and last in rushing touchdowns allowed to opposing QBs.
• Trevor Lawrence (JAX) – While his rookie season was one to forget, look for Lawrence to make a big leap in his second season. We’ll get to see what improvements he and the offense have made right away with a favorable matchup against the Commanders who ranked 28th DVOA against the pass while allowing 266 yards (28th) and 2.0 touchdown passes (32nd) per game.

RB

• Austin Ekeler (LAC) – The Chargers/Raiders matchup has one of the highest Vegas totals on the slate and the matchup sets up great for Ekeler’s skill set. The Raiders allowed 5.9 receptions (27th) for 38 yards (17th), and 0.4 touchdowns (31st) to pass-catching backs last season. Add in giving up 0.9 rushing scores (28th) per game to RBs and Ekeler could be on his way to a two-touchdown game.
• Alvin Kamara (NO) – Kamara is a game script independent back without much competition for touches. He should get a lot of work against the Falcons who allowed 5.5 receptions (24th) for 40 yards (22nd) per game to RBs last season. They also ranked 29th DVOA against the run while allowing 101 yards (23rd) and 0.8 touchdowns (23rd) to RBs.
• Aaron Jones / AJ Dillon (GB) – Both Packers RBs are viable in what should be a run-heavy game script with plenty of passes to the backs. The Vikings ranked 25th DVOA against the run last season while giving up 103 rushing yards (25th) and 0.7 touchdowns (18th). Add in another 0.3 receiving touchdowns (27th) per game to backs and at least one, if not both, back should be in for a big day.
• Dameon Pierce (HOU) – The rookie will get the starting nod as the primary back for the Texans in Week 1. The matchup against the Colts isn’t ideal but the volume he could get at a value price makes him worth consideration.

WR

• AJ Brown (PHI) – There are a lot of new faces in new places on my WR list this week, highlighted by Brown. Look for at least one big play from Brown this week against the Lions who allowed 13.1 yards per reception (28th) to WRs last season. He has a great individual matchup on the outside against weak competition in the Lions secondary.
• Marquise Brown (ARI) – The newly acquired Brown might be the only available starting receiver for the Cardinals this week with DeAndre Hopkins serving his suspension and both Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz both questionable. Brown was already going to be the alpha in the passing game early this season, but this could funnel even more targets his way.
• Michael Pittman (IND) – Pittman has a favorable individual matchup against the Texans on the outside. Meanwhile, the Texans allowed 169 yards (26th) per game to WRs last season. Pittman should be the first look for Matt Ryan who could elevate Pittman to another level this season.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) – Deciding which Chiefs WR will get the most looks and production is a little bit of a risky proposition, but at least one of them should have a good game against the Cardinals who allowed 1.6 touchdowns (32nd) per game to WRs. I’ll place my bet on Smith-Schuster working out of the slot for most volume and red zone potential.
• Christian Kirk (JAX) – The big offseason signing should make an immediate impact for the Jaguars against the Commanders who allowed 13.6 receptions (28th) for 176 yards (29th) and 1.3 TDs (30th) per game to WRs last season. Kirk also gets a favorable individual matchup working a lot out of the slot.
• Kadarius Toney (NYG) – Keep an eye on the injury reports, but it sounds like Toney is expected to play. If he does start and get a full complement of snaps the targets will follow. He had some big games last season and faces a Titans secondary that allowed 14.6 receptions (31st) for 189 yards (31st), and 1.2 touchdowns (27th) per game last season.

TE

• Mark Andrews (BAL) – Andrews is my favorite high-priced TE on this slate with a very favorable matchup against the Jets. The Jets allowed 5.4 receptions (25th) for 65 yards (29th), and 0.5 touchdowns (21st) per game to the TE position last season.
• Dallas Goedert (PHI) – Goedert has the perfect combination of good target share expectations, a favorable matchup, and a reasonable price tag. The Lions allowed 5.5 receptions (28th) for 66 yards (31st) per game to TEs last season and he adds a favorable individual matchup against the Lions defense.
• Evan Engram (JAX) – A change of scenery and a coach that likes to use the TE are both positives for Engram. He draws a favorable individual matchup against the Commanders defense who allowed 59 yards per game (24th) to TEs last season.

DST

• 49ers (SF)
• Dolphins (MIA)
• Steelers (PIT)

Top Bets

• JAX +2.5
• NYG + 5.5
• HOU +7
• BAL -7
• MIA/NE U46

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