NFL Hot Sheet – Week 2 – 2022

NFL DFS Hot Sheet – Week 2

It was great to see the NFL back in action last week and to start to get an idea of team tendencies and player usage. That said, don’t let one week completely reshape our impression of players and teams. The Week 2 NFL DFS main slate has 12 games on it and only one matchup with a Vegas total over 50 points and only three more over 45 points. Pricing has also started to tighten up a little bit already, so it could be a challenging week to build your preferred lineup.

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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com. Rankings for receivers by position (WR/TE) are based on grades from ProFootballFocus (PFF).

Week 2 Hot Sheet

Top Plays

QB

• Kyler Murray (ARI) – Murray faces the Raiders in the game with the highest Vegas total on Sunday’s main slate and the Cardinals coming in as an underdog. He put up solid fantasy numbers in Week 1 despite only running five times for 29 yards. Meanwhile, the Raiders gave up 279 passing yards and three touchdowns last week. High floor and upside for Murray this week.
• Trey Lance (SF) – Lance looked pretty average last week but I’m willing to give him a pass since the same was on the road in bad weather conditions in Chicago. A home game with better weather in San Fran this week with the 49ers as a sizeable favorite against the Seahawks should help pad his rushing (and passing) stats. He is very reasonably priced for a dual-threat QB.
• Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – Tua is my favorite GPP option on the slate in a matchup with a tight Vegas line and some sneaky shootout potential against the Ravens. The Dolphins were pass-heavy in Week 1 and the Ravens allowed 307 yards (27th) through the air to Joe Flacco last week.

RB

• Christian McCaffrey (CAR) – McCaffrey surprisingly only had 14 touches last week. Look for that number to double in Week 2 against the Giants. The Giants struggled to stop opposing RBs last season allowing 112 rushing yards (28th) per game and 4.53 YPC (27th). They also gave up chunk plays in the passing game to RBs in Week 1.
• Saquon Barkley (NYG) – Barkley exploded in Week 1 and while his price tag is on the rise, it still doesn’t seem high enough (especially on DraftKings). He is on the other side of the matchup with the Panthers as it could be a game of the RBs playing “anything you can do; I can do better.” The Panthers allowed 187 rushing yards (31st) in Week 1.
• Javonte Williams (DEN) – This week is a “get right” spot for the Broncos after their defeat in Seattle on Monday night. Williams showed that he is the primary pass-catching back for the Broncos along with a split of the work on the ground. The Broncos are a big home favorite against the Texans who ranked last in rushing yards per game to RBs last season and were gashed by Jonathan Taylor in Week 1 this season.
• Darrell Henderson (LAR) – Henderson is the primary back for the Rams over Cam Akers by a wide margin at the moment. The Rams are big home favorites in Week 2 against the Falcons. The Falcons rank 32nd DVOA against the run through one week. Henderson should get plenty of touches on the ground, at the goal line, and through the air this week.
• Jeff Wilson (SF) – With Eli Mitchell out, it looks like Wilson will be the lead dog in the 49ers backfield with a pair of rookies battling for the #2 spot. Coming off a loss, look for the 49ers to give the veteran the bulk of the work. In four games last season where he had more than 10 carries, Wilson averaged 65 rushing yards and 0.5 TDs.

WR

• Davante Adams (LV) – Adams didn’t seem to miss Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 and should have another big game in Week 2 against the Cardinals in a matchup with the highest Vegas total on the slate. The Cardinals allowed 14 catches for 169 yards and a score to WRs in Week 1 and weren’t any better last season.
• Tyreek Hill (MIA) – If you read my Tua writeup then you know I like the Dolphins’ passing game this week. I’ll likely do a double stack with both Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but Hill is my primary target. He saw 12 targets in Week 1 in a game that the Dolphins were leading all game. The Ravens have been shredded by opposing WRs last season and gave up 20 catches for 215 yards to Jets WRs in Week 1.
• Marquise Brown (ARI) – Brown came up a little bit short of expectations in Week 1 but get another great game environment this week in a potentially high-scoring affair against the Raiders. The Cardinals are still without some WRs (DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore) which should let more targets come Brown’s way against an average Raiders secondary.
• Cortland Sutton (DEN) – Similar to the Dolphins situation, I’m willing to use either Sutton or Jerry Jeudy (or both in a Russell Wilson GPP stack). The Broncos’ passing game has a favorable matchup against the Texans who allowed 17 receptions for 240 yards to WRs in Week 1 and weren’t much better last season.
• Christian Kirk (JAX) – Kirk had 12 targets in Week 1 and produced six catches for 117 yards. He should have another big day this week against the Colts. The Colts struggle to defend the slot where Kirk makes his living.
• Russell Gage (TB) – Make sure to watch the injury reports for the Buccaneers wide receiver room, but with Chris Godwin already out and maybe others, Gage could be in line for a big bump in snap, targets, and production. Add in that Mike Evans typically struggles against the Saints, Gage should be the beneficiary in the Bucs passing game.
• Ashton Dulin (IND) – I feel like we need a deep value at WR to make lineups work and Dulin could be that guy. He had six targets in Week 1 with three catches for 46 yards and a big chunk of the team’s air yards. The Colts’ top WR, Michael Pittman, has missed practice all week and Alec Pierce is in the concussion protocol. If things don’t open up for Dulin, other cheap WR options could be Greg Dortch (ARI) or Richie James (NYG).

TE

• Mark Andrews (BAL) – Andrews led the team in targets in Week 1 and the Ravens could be forced to pass more often this week in a tight game against the Dolphins. The Dolphins allowed five catches for 53 yards out of TEs in Week 1 and gave up 4.8 receptions (14th) for 58 yards (23rd) per game to TEs last season.
• Darren Waller (LV) – The Cardinals’ defense was torched by Travis Kelce in Week 1 and will now have to contend with Waller. He had four grabs for 79 yards in the opener as the #2 option in the passing game after Adams. The best game environment on the main slate should also help Waller get increased targets.
• Logan Thomas (WAS) – Thomas had six targets in Week 1 and give us exposure to the Lions/Commanders game that has one of the higher Vegas totals on the main slate. The Lions were bad against TEs last season allowing 5.5 receptions (28th) for 66 yards (31st) per game. They gave up three catches for 60 yards to Dallas Goedert in Week 1.

D/ST

• Browns (CLE)
• Dolphins (MIA)
• Bengals (CIN)

Top Bets

• WAS/DET Over 48.5
• TB/NO Under 44.5
• NE/PIT Under 40.5
• MIA/BAL Over 44.5

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