Entries by Stephen Monahan

NBA Value Index – Wednesday, Jan. 31

Two days in a row with some significant news before an NBA slate.

The Blake Griffin happened Monday, then Tuesday night Kevin Love exited the Cavs’ game with a fractured hand, which will directly affect the Cavs’ tonight and beyond.

We have an 8-game slate on tap for tonight and with the trade deadline looming, as I am have mentioned before, anything can happen between writing this first-look breakdown and lock time, so keep your ears and eyes posted.

Now let’s get down to tonight’s action.

O/U Spread Pace
Memphis Grizzlies 30
Indiana Pacers 204.5 -7 19

Injury News

Questionable: Mario Chalmers, Dillon Brooks, Lance Stephenson, Deyonta Davis, JaMychal Green, Ben McLemore

Memphis: We get the Memphis injury whirlwind once again tonight. But as of this publication, Tyreke Evans and Marc Gasol are both on track to play, and they are really the only two that matter in this matchup anyway. Gasol is in an elite spot against Indy, one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. They are top 10 in points and rebounds allowed to centers this season. Guards haven’t been as successful against Pacers this season, but Evans’ usage is so high that he’s in play almost every night. Unless we get a mass exodus from the Grizz due to injuries, worrying about the value guys isn’t really worth the time on a larger slate.

Indiana: This is a pace-down spot for the Pacers tonight, and with such a high spread against Memphis, I am not so sure this game really stays close for four quarters. Indiana isn’t really a team I love to target right now anyway. Victor Oladipo is the usage king, but his price is really too much to stomach outside of a large-field GPP for me tonight. The one area where the Grizzlies have struggled this season is defending SGs – allowing more than 43 points per game, good enough for a top-10 allowance in the league. Thad Young, Darren Collison, Myles Turner, Bojan, all are really not worth rostering. I would consider Bojan slightly tonight if Lance Stephenson gets ruled out, but even then, it would be a last-man in situation for my DFS lineups.

Must Plays: Marc Gasol
Bubble Plays: Victor Oladipo, Tyreke Evans
Value Plays: None

O/U Spread Pace
Los Angeles Lakers X X 1
Orlando Magic X X 7

Injury News

Out: Lonzo Ball
Questionable: Aaron Gordon

Los Angeles: I guess Aaron Gordon’s unknown availability for tonight’s game is worthy of no total early on. Lonzo Ball is out for the Lakers and they don’t have any other injury designations outside of that. It seems a bit fishy to me, but we will carry on like everything is normal without Lonzo. And the norm is not knowing who the eff is going to get the most run for the Lakers. Jordan Clarkson was on a nice 30-plus minute streak and then barely showed up his last time out. Luke Walton isn’t afraid to sit his current starter and put the ball in someone else’s hands. Julius Randle has all the upside in the world each night, we don’t know exactly how he will be used. This game is one of two high-paced projected games as the Lakers (No. 1 in pace) take on the 7th overall team in pace of play. Kyle Kuzma and Larry Nance are two big men that should see 22-30 minutes, but it’s hard to trust outside of GPPs. Brandon Ingram is really the only constant  on this team and he gets a great draw himself as the Magic are top 10 in points, rebounds and assists allowed to SFs. He’s my favorite play on this team due to his minutes floor.

Orlando: Let’s see, the Magic are coming off an emotional, hard fought performance against the Rockets and returned home to face the fastest-paced team in the league at home. Orlando is really hard to trust these days, so while this game looks tempting on paper, I do worry about the Magic actually showing up. It won’t keep me from rostering them, it will make me more uncomfortable than normal. Aaron Gordon is the key to this team tonight. It’s possible he was held out Tuesday to play on the second night of a back-to-back. Gordon would become one of my favorite plays against a front court that allows 33.9 points and 17.9 rebounds per game to opposing PFs. Gordon would eat so much here. Mario Hezonja would get the start in his place if he can’t go. Go with Elfrid, Fournier, Jonathon Simmons, Bismack Biyombo if you wish, but they are reserved for game stacks tonight.

Must Plays: Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, Aaron Gordon (if he plays)
Bubble Plays: Evan Fournier, Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance, Kyle Kuzma, Elfrid Payton, Jonathon Simmons, Bismack Biyombo, Khem Birch, Mario Hezonja
Value Plays: None

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January 31 by

NBA Value Index – Tuesday, Jan. 30

Well, well, well, how the turn tables have…

The Blake Griffin trade…

Griffin to Detroit, Avery Bradley and Tobias Harris to the Clippers…

But it is not known whether any of these guys will take the court Tuesday night. It probably wouldn’t be worth playing them on the first night with their new teams anyway.

Hell, by the time the slate rolls around DeAndre Jordan and Lou Williams could be gone as they have been in talks of being traded.

This slate is setting up to be an interesting one for us DFS folk, lots of injuries to wade through plus two teams will have completely different looking lineups and usage going forward. We also have to bear in mind that people can be traded even after lock and we don’t want to be stuck with a zero because of a last-minute trade.

Nine games, let’s go!

O/U Spread Pace
Oklahoma City Thunder 219.5 -3.5 21
Washington Wizards 15

Injury News

Doubtful: John Wall

Washington: Stranger things have happened, but John Wall’s availability isn’t completely known. He is doubtful, but with there already a line available, it appears he’s most likely to sit. So we will look at this as if he isn’t playing. If he does play, forget everything I said. Bradley Beal is the elite option from the Wizards team when Wall is off the floor. Beal has a 34% usage rate and is averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute. He also gets a boost because we don’t have to worry about Andre Roberson, one of the NBA’s best defenders who is out for the season, defending him. I saw a stat out there how OKC’s defensive rating goes from best to worst without Roberson on the floor. That bodes well for the WIzards here. Tomas Satoransky got the start last time out, but Tim Frazier also sees minutes and could even get the start himself. I think both of those guys are toss ups as the hot hand will see the bulk of the minutes. Otto Porter is the second guy we should be looking at here. With a 24% usage rate, Porter is averaging nearly a fantasy point per minute without Wall. The problem here though is that Porter has been wildly inconsistent all season. Gortat and Oubre are afterthoughts for me, even with Wall out. Markieff Morris is the interesting one here. He’s seen a spike in minutes with Wall out, playing more than 30 minutes in his last two games. He’s $5,500 and could be a decent source of value against Slowmelo Anthony.

Oklahoma City: No Wall, all Westbrook. The Wizards offer no scary rim protection and one of their best defenders will be out. There’s no reason Westbrook shouldn’t eat here. Paul George and Carmelo Anthony are secondary plays here for me as I just don’t play them very often. If you want to get creative, you can stack all three, and soak up most of the usage on this team, run it back with Beal and Porter for a game stack. George’s price is too high though right now, so he’s probably a complete stay away for me. Terrance Fergeson got a lot of Roberson’s minutes, but he’s a low usage guy who isn’t even seeing 30+ minutes, so hard pass for me. OKC keeps it simple here and Steven Adams is another secondary option but not a must-play considering his price and matchup.

Must Play: Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal
Bubble Plays: Otto Porter, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Tomas Satoransky, Tim Frazier, Steven Adams
Value Plays: Markieff Morris

O/U Spread Pace
Brooklyn Nets 5
New York Knicks 215 -5 17

Injury News

Out: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Caris LeVert

Brooklyn: RHJ is out, LeVertical is out. That doesn’t really help us out much with this Nets squad who isn’t really playing guys a ton of minutes at any position. However, with a game at Madison Garden, a fairly reasonable spread and an in-state showdown, I think there are a few plays to consider from the Nets tonight. The first we need to take notice is D’Angelo Russell’s last game where he took 14 shots and played his most minutes since coming off of injury. He’s $4,800 and i think he’s worth the tag even if he sees 20-25 minutes. His usage rate is 27%,, the highest on the team, when LeVert and RHJ are off the floor. Nik Stauskas saw a huge bump in minutes last time out, topping the 33-minute mark. He will likely be a popular value play with him presumably on tap for a huge share of the load again. Dinwiddie will become unplayable soon at his high price tag with Russell’s increasing minutes. I don’t play DeMarre Carroll or Allen Crabbe, so no. That leaves the big men where Jarrett Allen has seen a spike in minutes and usage in his last three. He’s still not seeing much more than 20 minutes, but he’s still playable at $3,800.

New York: I bet Trey Burke becomes popular throughout the day today. He’s seen 12 and 14 shot attempts in his past two and if he gets hot, Jeff Hornacek is clearly not afraid to play him big minutes. He’s still worthy of a tournament play at $3,700 in a pace-up spot where the Nets have trouble defending the point. Hell, he may be cash worthy as part of a stars and scrubs lineup. Courtney Lee is always an easy fade for me. Tim Hardaway isn’t a guy I ever feel comfortable with, but he’s certainly got upside in this matchup without RHJ. He’s one of the top usage guys on the team not named Kristaps Porzingis, who is out of the picture for me as usual. He’s barely topped 30 fantasy points in his last four games. Against Brooklyn this year, Porzy is averaging just 38 fantasy points in 3 games played. His price takes him out of the running. Enes Kanter should play tonight, but he’s averaging just 17 minutes in 3 games against Brooklyn. He’s seen a bigger role lately though, so he’s firmly in play in tournaments against the Nets, the dairy creamer of defense against centers. If Kanter or Hardaway sit tonight, lock in Beasley. He’s the guy that benefits the most when either of those guys sit.

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January 30 by

NBA Value Index – Monday, Jan. 29

So we are just a few weeks out of the NBA All-Star Break.

And one team already is broken after weekend action.

Gotta feel for Boogie Cousins. He’s a huge name in the NBA and to lose him for the season is a huge blow to the league, DFS and the Pelicans.

New Orleans better hope Brow can stay healthy long enough to perhaps become trade bait. That seems to be the talk of Twitter anyway, and it wouldn’t shock me if he was dealt. But I wouldn’t blame New Orleans for keeping him either.

As for tonight’s slate, we have just 6 games to kick off this full week of action. That’s fine by me, makes my job a little easier.

A note about the Value Index. It will not run next week as I have to be out of town for a conference for my full time job as an educator and I will be gone all week. So enjoy this week and I hope we help you score big!

O/U Spread Pace
Charlotte Hornets 10
Indiana Pacers 215 -3 19

Injury News

None

Charlotte: It’s hard to believe two teams from the East have yet to face each other this year, but that is the case we have here tonight. The Hornets are a team that is much better suited for the home environment, so my level of interest for them is slim, even on a 6 game slate. Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum have the worst matchups on the team, so if the Hornets are going to keep this close, it is going to be because of the wings and the frontcourt. Dwight Howard has the most impeccable matchup of all the players on his team. The Pacers are top-10 in points and rebounds allowed this season and attacking big men against them is a thing. Dwight has played great over his last 10 games with 8 straight double-doubles. His price reflects said change as it is more than $9K. That is going to be hard to pay up for tonight, but Dwight has the best matchup of all the centers on the slate. Marvin WIlliams, Frank the Tank and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist all have great matchups on paper as Indian is top 10 in points allowed and rebounds to SFs and PFs, too. Their reliability and minutes are what I question despite them being sources of value

Indiana: The Pacers are a team to target at home, but they draw a rather difficult matchup themselves. Batum is still a solid defender at SG and will likely cover Oladipo in this matchup. Most of the time that means we want to see where offense might funnel. But I am not going to rely on Darren Collison against Kemba Walker. Bojan Bogdanovic makes a lot of sense, but his minutes have been up and down lately. That leaves Thad Young, Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, Lance Stephenson and Cory Joseph has the only other guys we can use from this team. I don’t play Thad, but he’s been getting well over 30 minutes a night of late, so I understand the play against a weak Hornets frontcourt. Sabonis and Turner will split minutes as the Pacers work Turner back into the lineup from injury. They face Howard as well, which can be difficult when he turns up the heat. I can always see Lance having a big game if he’s playing well off the bench, but he’s hardly reliable without getting starters minutes.

Must Plays: Dwight Howard
Bubble Plays: Victor Oladipo, Thaddeus Young, Kemba Walker
Value Plays: None

O/U Spread Pace
Minnesota Timberwolves 215 -5.5 24
Atlanta Hawks 13

Injury News

Questionable: Jeff Teague

Minnesota: Jeff Teague is the lone Timberwolf on the injury report the night before the slate. He has a sore ankle and is questionable to play. While this is a dream matchup for Teague and the rest of the T’Wolves against Atlanta, it wouldn’t shock me if Teague sat for extra rest because this should be a game Minnesota should take care of. Teague sitting would be disappointing considering the Hawks have been terrible against PGs this season (and all backcourt positions might I add), but this also is a revenge game for Teague. If he plays, I would certainly use him for #narrativestreet. Jimmy Butler returned over the weekend and his draw is superb, so are Andrew Wiggins and Taj Gibson’s. Karl Anthony-Towns has a tougher matchup on paper, but it’s Atlanta and they don’t have anyone that can guard or defend KAT in the paint. If Teague sits, Tyus Jones would become a solid value play while Jimmy Butler and KAT would see the biggest usage bumps. Teague’s absence or lack thereof, will be important for this slate. Hopefully we get the news before lock.

Atlanta: There isn’t one person I can trust on this team. Dennis Schroder has seemingly hit a wall, and with how bad the Hawks are overall this year and the ASB looming, Atlanta could be in full coast mode. Their rotation is Brooklyn-like as everyone but Schroder doesn’t seem to have reliable usage or minutes these days. Bazemore, Prince, Collins, Ilyasova, Dedmon and Muscala all share minutes these days. Marco Belinelli is the only value play worth considering because you at least know what you are getting when you roster him. The rest are like jets – they are all up in the air. Schroder is a maybe, but is a solid buy-low tournament option considering the T’Wolves woes against starting point guards – top 10 in points and assists allowed.

Must Plays: Jeff Teague (if he plays), Jimmy Butler
Bubble Plays: Karl Anthony-Towns, Dennis Schroder
Value Plays: Tyus Jones (IF Teague sits)

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January 29 by

NBA Value Index – Friday, Jan. 26

We’ve made it over the hump and sauntered into Friday for another huge NBA slate for DFS.

There are 10 games scheduled for the NBA tonight, and the Value Index will continue to provide a game-by-game look at some plays you can take advantage of in each game (if necessary) based on matchup, injury news, schedule, Vegas odds and pace of play.

I hope you all end the week with a bang and it’s all because of the in-depth content we provide you for the NBA almost every night during the week. Don’t forget to check out our Consensus, Hot Sheet and What-If content later on today.

To access all of that content, you can pay a small fee of $9.99 per month and you don’t have to do much research at all because we have you covered.

Now let’s get it on!

O/U Spread Pace
Atlanta Hawks 13
Charlotte Hornets 209.5 -6.5 9

Injury News

None

Atlanta: The first game of the slate features a mediocre Hawks squad powered by high-usage point guard Dennis Schroder as they travel to Charlotte to take on the Hornets, who are shopping Kemba Walker as trade bait. The aforementioned Schroder has the best matchup of all his teammates against Walker. At Schroder’s price and usage, he certainly is playable in all formats in one of the higher-paced games on the slate. Bazemore, Prince, Collins, Ilyasova, Dedmon are all shots in the dark for me. Ersan draws the most interest for me due to the Hornets weakness in guarding PFs, especially of the stretch variety. Marco Belinelli sees high usage off the bench, but you need to rely on him to make shots to pay off value. If John Collins were to ever get a full complement of minutes, he would be a great value play on this slate.

Charlotte: How many revenge games can Dwight Howard have? This is certainly one of them and it’s not a tough matchup by any means for him. He held his own against Boogie the other night and now he will see the likes of Dwayne Dedmon and Mike Muscala? The only issue for me is Howard’s $8,800 price tag. That’s a bit too steep for me, but I certainly understand why you would roster him anyway. Nicolas Batum is my favorite play on this side of the ball. He’s finally seeing 30+ minutes consistently and draws a favorable matchup as the Hawks struggle to cover wing players. They are top 10 in fantasy points allowed in the following categories: points, rebounds, assists and 3-pointers made. Walker on the other side also has a great draw against Schroder and the Atlanta backcourt that is top-15 allowances in points, assists, rebounds and 3-pointers made. But again, the price for Walker might break your cap at $8.7K. MKG, Marvin Williams and Frank the Tank are all lawn dart DFS throws with unbankable minutes and usage.

Must-Have Plays: Dennis Schroder, Nicolas Batum
Bubble Plays: Dwight Howard, Kemba Walker
Value Plays: None

O/U Spread Pace
Indiana Pacers 18
Cleveland Cavaliers 222 -5 15

Injury News

Questionable: Myles Turner

Indiana: Myles Turner went through a full practice on Thursday, but his return to the lineup tonight against Cleveland is questionable. The Cavaliers continue to struggle to put teams away, meaning this is a great spot to roster the high-usage guys in a kick-the-dog-while-its-down matchup. Oladipo disappointed against the Suns and his price rose $300. There are a lot of studs to pay for tonight, making Dipo a likely contrarian option who can score 60+ fantasy points. The Cavs struggled against SGs. J.R. Smith, his likely defender, is 91st in Defensive Real-Plus Minus out of 106 qualified SGs. Darren Collison returns to the starting lineup, but he’s still unplayable because of his price, lack of upside and lack of a safe floor. Bojan benefitted last time out to Collison’s absence, but he’s another guy who will get a bunch of minutes who won’t do much with them. Thad Young and Domantas Sabonis should see continued minutes into the 30s as long as Turner is still ruled out. With all of that said, there’s not anyone I want to play as a one off and this game is setting up like a game stack or stay away for me.

Cleveland: LeBron James is Mr. 30,000, but his Cavaliers are still in disarray. LBJ, Kevin Love, the addition of Isaiah Thomas and return of Tristan Thompson and Derrick Rose have put this team on the fast track to failure so far. LeBron always is in play and SFs eat up the Pacers allowing top-10 fantasy points-per-game performances in points, assists and 3-points made (5.2). In 3 matchups this season, LeBron is average 60 DraftKings points. King James is a cash and tournament option tonight. Kevin Love would be in a great spot against a weak frontcourt, but he hasn’t been playing anywhere close to 30-minutes per game now that the Cavs have more offensive options. He could easily still put up 40 in a half due to the Pacers inept rebounding ability in the paint. He’s averaging 38 DK points in 3 matchups against Indy for what it’s worth. Thomas hasn’t really flashed a lot of upside and his price is in the mid $6K range. He has been a scorer on this team and barely puts up any surrounding stats.

Must-Have Plays: LeBron James
Bubble Plays: Victor Oladipo, Kevin Love, Thad Young, Domantas Sabonis
Value Plays: None

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January 26 by

NBA Value Index – Wednesday, Jan. 24

Happy Hump Day everyone.

Another Value Index is on tap for tonight’s loaded 9-game NBA slate.

Our goal with the Index is to provide information about all of the upcoming games, narrow down some options using stats and data and review any schedule or injury news needed. Vegas, pace of play, DvP and other information is used to find plays that will assist you in building your lineups tonight.

Think of this as a first look article as it is written the night before a slate and that things can change between the time you read this and when rosters lock.

We have three games entering this slate without a total. They all have significant players with questionable tags, thus those lines likely will remain mute until more information is known.

If you like the snippets you get for free each time the Index is published, please feel free to sign up for our 7-day free trial and get an all-access pass without the risk!

O/U Spread Pace
Utah Jazz 27
Detroit Pistons 201 -2.5 22

Injury News

Questionable: Reggie Bullock, Rodney Hood

Utah: Oh man, what a game to start out this slate. Two teams with two of the slowest paces and totals on the board. Seriously, this one is going to be short for both squads. Utah is nearly back to full strength with Rudy Gobert back, but Hood is questionable tonight, leaving opportunity for Joe Ingles and/or Alec Burks to see more minutes and usage….Ok, I really can’t talk about this game in depth. Sometimes you have to cross off games on bigger slates. This game is one of them. Play Donovan Mitchell if you wish, but I’ll look elsewhere.

Detroit: This team is still without Reggie Jackson, meaning Ish Smith will continue to see the starter’s minutes at point guard. He’s still carries some temptation due to his price ($5,600), but he’s more of a cash game play than a ceiling play for me. Drummond is in a tough matchup, Tobias Harris draws a tough defensive matchup as well, leaving Avery Bradley and whatever other SFs Detroit can pass off as useful. Again, this game isn’t for fantasy purposes, merely schedule fodder.

Must-Have Plays: None
Bubble Plays: Donovan Mitchell, Ish Smith
Value Plays: None

O/U Spread Pace
Phoenix Suns 4
Indiana Pacers 216 -8 18

Injury News

Questionable: Myles Turner
Out: Marquese Chriss

Phoenix: The Suns changed up their starting lineup last time out against Milwaukee, inserting Greg Monroe over Tyson Chandler. Who knows if that will stick for tonight, but the decision really changes how I feel about the Suns’ center position should Chandler come off the bench. Chandler actually didn’t play against the Bucks, but centers destroy Indiana. Even with Myles Turner possibly returning, the Pacers are top 10 in points and rebounds allowed this season. If Chandler starts, he should see 23-28 minutes and could crush in this spot at $4,400. Devin Booker and T.J. Warren are still the top-2 offensive cogs here, but one of them will draw Victor Oladipo defense and that will likely be Booker, the top scorer for Phoenix. With that expectation, Warren is in a great spot against Pacers, who get chewed up and spit out by larger wings. They allow nearly 40 points per game, 14.5 rebounds and almost 8 assists per game to the position. They also allow an average of 5.2 3-pointers made per game, which is a top-10 allowance in the league.

Indiana: Victor Oladipo enters this game as the top overall option between both teams. The Suns play at the fourth fastest pace of play in the league and are one of the least defensive-minded teams in the league. Devin Booker is no defender, Oladipo sucks up all the usage he can handle and is a solid cash game and tournament option tonight at home, even at $9,200. Domantas Sabonis should continue to see secure minutes with Myles Turner out of the lineup. Thad Young also the same, but should Turner return, the tune would change just a bit for me. I can see Thad Young being chalk here, but the Suns have been surprisingly good against the PF position, so a chalky Thad is almost an easy fade. But again, that all depends on Turner.

Must-Have Plays: Victor Oladipo, T.J. Warren
Bubble Plays: Domantas Sabonis
Value Plays: A Suns’ center based on news

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January 24 by

NBA Value Index – Tuesday, Jan. 23

It’s always fun to roster your favorite player of a slate and they go off for more than 100 fantasy points, like it’s no big deal.

Boogie Cousins was that guy last night, putting up 103.5 DraftKings points in a double overtime victory over the Bulls. Now I was wrong to worry about a blowout, a reverse jinx of sorts.

Now we count our cash, put back some savings and lay down more cheddar tonight, a 5-game slate in the NBA.

It’s a weird set of games though, which I will elaborate with each team breakdown below.

Be sure to subscribe if you haven’t already. You can at least enjoy a free 7 days and see if you like what our site offers, then decide whether it’s worth the very cheap $9.99 a month fee for an all-access pass.

Let’s dig into tonight’s action!

O/U Spread Pace
Sacramento Kings 26
Orlando Magic 213.5 -6.5 7

Injury News

None

Sacramento: With the Kings on a back-to-back and starting players like Vince Carter and Kosta Koufos Monday night, I expect a completely different starting rotation to be put into play against the up-paced Magic. The young guys like De’Aaron Fox, Skal Labissiere, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Buddy Heild and Willie Cauley-Stein…damn I feel like I just wrote this yesterday…should be locked in for their usual uptick in minutes. Watch for guys like Zach Randolph and George HIll and see if they crack the lineup at all prior to lock. Like I’ve said in the past, they are likely trade bait, and as you might read quite a bit tonight, this is a time to showcase what they’ve got for potential buyers. The Kings have a great matchup tonight against an up-paced Magic squad that rarely blows anyone out. In fact, they are usually the receives of the blowing…out. The Magic allow opponents to light up the stat sheet at nearly every position. The biggest weakness is against the backcourt where the defense of Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier and Jonathon Simmons has allowed gobs and gobs of fantasy production. Shooting guards are averaging a combined triple-double in points, rebounds and assists this season against the Magic, putting whomever gets those minutes in a premium spot.

Orlando: While I talked about the ineptness of the Magic, the Kings aren’t much better. The only reason why they might not allow as much fantasy production is because they play in the bottom 5 of pace. Power forwards and centers are where you want to attack Sacramento, meaning Aaron Gordon is in a prime position to thrive along with some Bismack Biyombo, who is a better fit in pace-down games than run-and-gun shootouts. However, paying more than $6K for Biyombo feels like down right armed robbery. Payton, Fournier and Simmons are all solid options, especially the Elf who has been hot in three of his last four games. But he’s Elf and some days in DFS you have to put him on a shelf…oh yea, I went there. Gordon looks to be the cream of the crop and is far too cheap in my opinion at $8,100 against a team averaging 37 and 18 to PFs this season, that’s a steal for the projected production.

Must-Have Plays: Aaron Gordon
Bubble Plays: Willie Cauley-Stein, Evan Fournier, Elfrid Payton
Value Plays: De’Aaron Fox, Skal Labissiere

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January 23 by

NBA Value Index – Monday, Jan. 22

Welcome into another week of the new and improved Value Index. Another full week of NBA action. And the first full week of NBA without any NFL. While the Patriots and Eagles will take on each other in the Super Bowl in a couple of weeks, we will continue to tackle NBA DFS the best […]

January 22 by

NBA Value Index – Wednesday, Jan. 17

For the Value Index, last week’s Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs was the last for this guy’s 2017-18 NFL DFS coverage. Writing up something for Championship Weekend doesn’t provide a lot of options, therefore let’s all enjoy the last week of NFL DFS for the next 8 months.

With that ending, comes new beginnings.

As I’ve stated the past few weeks in NBA coverage, once the NFL season was over, I was tweaking the way I present the Value Index.

The changes will move from a Pick ‘Em format to a game-by-game first look format.

The reason for this is because of all the injury and late-scratch news we get before lock each night in the Association. It’s not even the All-Star Break for the NBA and the late start/sit news is down right ridiculous.

Trying to write my favorite plays the night before, only to personally change some of them (and not update the Index) right before lock has seemed a bit “fake” I guess is the right word?

Basically, I would rather be helpful in supplying some research and information, suggest a few plays and then let you decide where you want to go. It would help me personally, so why wouldn’t I want to do the same for our readers?

The Index will run Monday through Friday each week. The only exceptions will be if we don’t have at least 4 games on a main slate.

This will remain premium content, but you will be able to read a couple of matchups as freebies, but will need to subscribe for at least a 7-day free trial to get the remainder of the content. On short slates with 4 or 5 games, I will offer up the Index for free (if I am feeling nice that day!)

Without further adieu, here’s the new and improved version of the Value Index. I hope you enjoy! I always welcome feedback here or on Twitter @hotdog_dailyDFS.

O/U Spread Pace
Washington Wizards 14
Charlotte Hornets 212 -1.5 10

 

Washington: This is a 9-game slate, so we can be a little more picky about some of the top guys on the slate. One of those guys is in the first game: John Wall. He’s nearly 10K and faces the Hornets on the road. If you have been playing NBA DFS for awhile, you know that Wall is always a better play at home. With that said, he draws a great matchup against Kemba Walker, one of the worst defenders in the NBA. Wall’s supporting cast is the usual suspects – Beal, Porter and Gortat. Beal should match up on the defensive minded Batum and is still overpriced while Otto has been a lotto pick of late with his inconsistent play. Markieff Morris is lone injury we need to take note of. Should he sit, Mike Scott becomes a solid value play. Kelly Oubre offers lots of minutes, but his usage is miniscule. Gortat might see more minutes in this one going against Dwight Howard, but I can’t see myself playing the Polish Hammer against a guy who can overpower him and can keep him in check when Dwight decides he wants to play defense.

Charlotte: Like Wall, Kemba Walker is another PG we want to target when he is playing at home. The problem for me is that I don’t think Charlotte is a very good team and unless they are playing even more inferior opponents or a significant injury funnels usage to a backup or other player, they are almost an exclusive stay away in DFS. Batum still hasn’t quite found his footing on this team and is not offering the kind of upside we want to see. Frank the Tank Kaminsky is questionable for this game, then Marvin Williams would be firmly in play as we should be able to lock in those minutes, plus he’s been playing well lately, scoring more than 30 DK points in his past two. The other Hornet on my radar is Dwight, who at $7,500, has been see more than 30 minutes in four straight contests and put up nearly 50 DK points in these two teams lone matchup of the season.

Injuries Notice: Markieff Morris, Frank Kaminsky

Must-Have Plays: None

Bubble Plays: John Wall, Dwight Howard

Value Plays: Kelly Oubre, Mike Scott (if Markieff sits), Marvin Williams (if Kaminsky sits)

O/U Spread Pace
San Antonio Spurs X -6.5 29
Brooklyn Nets X 5


San Antonio: With no line on this game, it’s truly hard to dig too deep into who is going to see the court for this game. Kawhi Leonard unsurprisingly sat in the Spurs last outing, therefore I am expecting him to suit up (and possibly see another veteran sit against the lowly Nets). The spread opened at just -6.5, but we can’t really trust that without knowing who is starting. If the Spurs are at full strength, it would still be difficult to play much from this team in a salary format due to the risk of a blowout. They are facing the Nets though, so this is a bump in pace for the Spurs and should an Aldridge or Leonard sit, then rest of the team (and whomever is starting for them) gets a huge bump in usage and would become near locks for me. Kawhi and Aldridge are the top-two offensive specialists for this team with old man Pau, who is questionable, a distant second. It would make sense for Pau to sit in this matchup due to the pace and lack of size Brooklyn has in the frontcourt, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Pau is out. That would make Aldridge and Kawhi a little more attractive as a mini stack if they both suit up. IF Pau sits, that doesn’t leave a lot of guys to play in his stead. Aldridge could play the 5 or Davis Bertans and Joffery Lauvergne could see some extra run and could provide solid value.

Brooklyn: D’Angelo Russell is soon to return, but he’s already been ruled out, so we have another hodge podge Nets squad to probably easily fade against the defensive-minded and slow-paced Spurs team. Spencer Dinwiddie’s minutes have been sporadic of late and only Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Allen Crabbe have truly seen any kind of solid minutes share. Crabbe doesn’t see a lot of usage, though the Spurs “weakness” has been against SGs this season. DeMarre Carroll is someone I never get right and I don’t ever try to pretend I know when he is the correct play, so I stay away every time the Nets are on the schedule. Center minutes are a rotating carousel, and Caris LeVert doesn’t play more than 30 minutes a game, so this team, while cheap-ish, are a stay away for me most likely.

Injury Notice: Pau Gasol, Manu Ginobli ruled out.

Must-Have Plays: None

Bubble Plays: Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge

Value Plays: Davis Bertans, Joffrey Lauvergne (if Gasol sits)

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January 17 by

NFL Value Index – Divisional Round

Welcome to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs! Sadly, I don’t think this weekend looks to be all it’s cracked up to be (as opposed to years past). While the Titans and Falcons winning might’ve surprised a lot of people, I personally had some thoughts that either could win their contests. The Chiefs are […]

January 12 by

NBA Value Index – Jan. 8

Tonight could be a tough draw for all the non-late swap fanatics. We have 8 games in the NBA, but there are some studs on this late with injury question marks, some of which we may not have news on prior to lock. Andre Drummond, Blake Griffin, Kevin Durant, and loosely, Kawhi Leonard (suffered a […]

January 8 by

NBA Value Index – Friday, Jan. 5

Happy Friday everyone! Hope the first week of 2018 has been awesome for you so far.

We have 10 games in the association tonight and it’s certainly provides a near-studless slate (meaning no Russ, Curry, Durant, Harden, Brow, Boogie, LeBron).

Now there are two high-priced studs to consider in Giannis and Embiid, but unless you are playing DRAFT, they aren’t going to be must-haves for tournament winning lineups tonight or even cash games.

There’s a lot of mid-range value on the table, plus some obvious value plays. There are some injuries that certainly will shift my eyes from some of my picks below.

The main injury tonight is Andre Drummond. If he doesn’t give it a go again, Boban is going to be the chalky value play of the night. This also would give Avery Bradley and maybe Ish bumps for me in an up-pace game against Philly.

But Boban would certainly be a lock in cash games.

None of those guys will be on the Index today because I don’t try to guess what will happen in these situations, so I avoid recommending anyone usually.

Like I mentioned on Wednesday, the Value Index will see a format overhaul after our coverage for football season ends. I will be breaking down games and provide as much information and research to you as possible and make recommended plays from there. Most likely, these picks will go ungraded. The reason for this, is again, because for NBA, providing picks with all of the injury news we have had this season close to lock isn’t ideal. If you are paying a premium, you should get premium-type content each day from me. I can’t possibly predict what might happen between when I write up the Index with picks (the night before a slate) and before lock (when things can change drastically, like Boban news on Wednesday did).

Anyway, be on the lookout for that. I am thoroughly excited to do this and hopefully it will benefit you all as well.

So let’s get after tonight’s action:

Kris Dunn – PG/SG – Chicago Bulls – $7,100

Analysis: Dunn is becoming a rising star in the association since he’s returned from injury and getting a full complement of minutes as the starting point guard. Tonight he and the Bulls get the surging Dallas Mavericks, who were a Steph Curry 3-pointer away from upending the Warriors for their 5th straight win. With Dennis Smith Jr, a raw and talent rookie and J.J. Barea manning the point for most of each game, there is a certain defensive liability for us to attack. Dallas also doesn’t have any rim protectors in the paint either. Dunn is coming off a down outing, but gets a Dallas team that is giving up almost 20 fantasy points more per game in their past 5 than their season average. With both teams really playing well right now, I can see this game be a sneaky close shootout despite the slower paces of the teams, especially the Mavs.

Donovan Mitchell – PG/SG – Utah Jazz – $7,500

Analysis: When something doesn’t work, but you truly believe in the product, you keep trusting said product. That product tonight is Donovan Mitchell, who didn’t smash and was serviceable Wednesday, but he didn’t meet my expectations. Tonight he gets another plum matchup against the Denver Nuggets. I wouldn’t really worry about altitude in this one as the Jazz are used to playing in that type of environment at home. With that said, the Nuggets are 6th overall fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. Mitchell has the highest usage rate on the team without Rudy Gobert on the floor (and likely woudl anyway). He’s a highlight reel and 50-point upside waiting to happen each night.

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January 5 by