Welcome in to an end-of-the-week Value Index. We have 14 games tonight with a lot of studs and some stacks that good go overlooked. Upon looking at this slate, it appears the Angels/Red Sox will have the best chance for ownership tonight. We have a lot of games, a lot of information, so this intro […]
Happy Thursday everyone!
Today we have a smaller, 8-game slate. The Red Sox, Braves and Yankees are one of the better options on the slate.
This intro is going to be short, so let’s just jump right in to today’s action. Good luck out there!
Pitcher xFIP vs. LH
1. Elieser Hernandez – 6.63
2. Dillon Peters – 5.71
3. Eric Lauer – 5.47
4. Thomas Pannone – 5.37
5. Jorge Lopez – 4.49
Pitcher xFIP vs. RH
1. Thomas Pannone – 5.40
2. Alex Wood – 5.26
3. Jorge Lopez – 4.75
4. Eliser Hernandez – 4.61
5. Dallas Keuchel – 4.57
Hitter xFIP vs. LH
1. J.D. Martinez – Boston Red Sox – .541
2. Kris Bryant – Chicago Cubs – .459
3. Rhys Hoskins – Philadelphia Philles – .444
4. DJ LeMahieu – New York Yankees – .442
5. Javier Baez – Chicago Cubs – .433
6. Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies – .422
7. Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels – .417
8. Ian Desmond – Colorado Rockies – .391
9. Charlie Blackmon – Colorado Rockies – .391
10. Daniel Murphy – Colorado Rockies – .387
Hitter xFIP vs. RH
1. Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves – .420
2. Nelson Cruz – Minnesota Twins – .408
3. Carlos Santana – Cleveland Indians – .388
4. Fernando Tatis, Jr. – San Diego Padres – .385
5. Jorge Polanco – Minnesota Twins – .384
6. Josh Donaldson – Atlanta Braves – .383
7. Francisco Lindor – Cleveland Indians – .379
8. Max Kepler – Minnesota Twins – .379
9. Ronald Acuna, Jr. – Atlanta Braves – .364
10. Justin Smoak – Toronto Blue Jays – .351
PITCHERS
Madison Bumgarner – vs. Philadelphia Phillies – $8,600
Analysis: We have Mad Bum at home against a Phillies team that is fairly hit or miss. They have some righties with some pop, but we have to factor in the home ballpark and the price tag here. Bum has been elite against lefties, owning a .251 wOBA with a 3.56 xFIP and a 9.93 K/9. Righties have fared better against him, but he’s still pitching well with a .320 wOBA, a 2.14 BB/9, a 4.47 xFIP and an 8.84 K/9. People out there believe Bum is washed up and not the same pitcher he used to be. That may be true, but on smaller slate where we need some value, Bum is just too cheap for me at home as a late-game hammer.
HITTERS
Freddie Freeman – 1B – Atlanta Braves – $4,400
Analysis: Dallas Keuchel is soooo tempting for the pitcher spot, but he’s in Miami and the Marlins are scrappy. Marlins Park in general gives me the willies for fantasy, but it’s a small slate and the Braves are one of the best stacking options. Based on matchup with Elieser Hernandez, Freeman might be the best option on the slate. Hernandez has been dreadful against lefties, allowing a .430 wOBA, 48% hard contact, 5.28 BB/9 and a whopping 3.52 HR/9.
I still play on DraftKings for MLB, but very, very low volume as I have been pretty unhappy with their product this season.
And they miffed me against last night when I realized they subtracted the second game of the double header between the Mets and the Marlins.
I cited that this takes away some of the edge due to people worrying about not having a lineup before lock. And DraftKings has no problems with the NBA’s lineup vomit that happens nearly on a daily basis.
Anyway, it miffed me and I moved on, and here we are for Tuesday’s nearly full slate.
It’s definitely starting to look like August DFS baseball with the new names showing up in lineups and toeing the hill as starters.
It gets worse in September, and thankfully my baseball content will be subbed for NFL and college football content, so keep on the lookout for that later this month!
But for now, baseball…let’s go!
Pitcher xFIP vs. LH
1. Asher Wojciechowski – 6.17
2. Mike Foltynewicz – 5.62
3. Ariel Jurado – 5.56
4. Zach Plesac – 5.44
5. Anthony DeSclafani – 5.44
6. Jake Arrieta – 5.42
7. Miles Mikolas – 5.11
8. Jose Suarez – 5.07
9. Chase Anderson – 5.00
Pitcher xFIP vs. RH
1. Steven Brault – 5.87
2. Jose Suarez – 5.49
3. Conner Menez – 5.34
4. Trent Thornton – 5.32
5. Andrew Cashner – 5.10
6. Jordan Yamamoto – 5.07
7. Zach Plesac – 5.05
8. Anibal Sanchez – 5.03
9. Chase Anderson – 4.92
10. Mike Leake – 4.92
Hitter wOBA vs. LH
1. Kris Bryant – Cubs – .454
2. Javier Baez – Cubs – .433
3. Anthony Rendon – Nationals – .405
4. Brian Dozier – Nationals – .403
5. Matt Chapman – Athletics – .395
6. Matt Olson – Athletics – .392
7. Christian Yelich – Brewers – .389
8. Eugenio Suarez – Reds – .372
9. Yasmani Grandal – Brewers – .364
10. Mike Moustakas – Brewers – .361
Hitter wOBA vs. RH
1. Mike Trout – Angels – .452
2. Cody Bellinger – Dodgers – .434
3. Rafael Devers – Red Sox – .417
4. Freddie Freeman – Braves – .414
5. Bryan Reynolds – Pirates – .408
6. Nelson Cruz – Twins – .407
7. Josh Bell – Pirates – .402
8. Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox – .397
9. George Springer – Astros – .397
10. Austin Meadows – Rays – .395
PITCHER
Dinelson Lamet – at Seattle Mariners – $6,500
Analysis: For me tonight, it’s Dinelson Lamet season. I don’t care about his pitch limit at all. He may only pitch 5 innings, but he’s got the best matchup on the board for me as he and the Padres draw the Mariners. Lamet is striking out batters left and right to the tune of a 10.24 K/9 against lefties and a 12.83 K/9 against righties. The M’s are awful. They are 21st in team wOBA and striking out at an insane 26% rate.
HITTERS
Josh Bell – 1B – Pittsburgh Pirates – $3,600
Analysis: When you fall off the horse, you get back up. Well, I wouldn’t get back on a horse if it bucked me off, but I will roster Josh Bell again tonight as the Pirates look to kick the regression in high gear for Chase Anderson, who owns a 5.00 xFIP and a 1.91 ERA against lefties all with a .190 BABIP. Bell is a righty destroyer this year, sporting a .399 wOBA and a .315 ISO.
Well, the grind of the 2019-20 school year is upon this writer, so let’s just say today’s write up comes with a bit of meh behind it.
I am also just ready for the 2019 football season to begin.
We have 13 games on tap for today…and up top there are some solid pitching options, but there are some very awful pitchers to choose from.
Pitcher xFIP vs. LH
1. Drew VerHagen – 7.80
2. Dario Agrazal – 6.31
3. Rick Porcello – 6.11
4. Gabriel Ynoa – 5.91
5. Jeff Samardzija – 5.44
6. Jordan Lyles – 5.28
7. Michael Wacha – 4.98
8. Chris Bassitt – 4.91
Pitcher xFIP vs. RH
1. Drew VerHagen – 6.99
2. Dario Agrazal – 6.06
3. Erick Fedde – 5.72
4. Aaron Civale – 5.72
5. Jacob Waguespack – 5.37
6. Walker Lockett – 5.26
7. Gabriel Ynoa – 5.00
8. Michael Wacha – 4.96
No hitter wOBA tables today as there are mostly RH pitchers starting on this slate.
PITCHERS
Masahiro Tanaka – at Baltimore Orioles – $7.800
Analysis: Tanaka is far too cheap tonight against the Orioles, who are 25th overall in team wOBA and strike out 23.8% of the time. But I never seem to get Tanaka right and this just seems too much like a slam dunk with the price as cheap as he is on FanDuel. Against lefties, Tanaka is fairly underwhelming, striking out slightly less than 7 batters per 9 innings. But against righties, he’s been better with an 8.26 K/9. The Yankees’ offense gets a bad pitching staff, so if Tanaka can keep things in the park, he’s got QS AND win upside on FanDuel.
Walker Lockett – vs. Miami Marlins – $5,600
Analysis: I am going to be tempted here to play an almost min-salary pitcher against one of the worst offenses in baseball as the Marlins take on Lockett and the Mets. The Marlins are 29th in team wOBA and strikeout 22.8% of the time. Lockett has seen limited action in the majors this year, and hasn’t shown big strikeout upside, but he’s cheap and allows you to pile in the bats AND he faces arguably the worst offense on the slate with a nut-low .133 ISO.
The trade deadline came and went.
Zack Greinke to the Astros was the biggest deal to fall. Other notables like Nicholas Castellanos, Aaron Sanchez, Jesus Aguilar, Scooter Gennett, and Zac Gallen all switched teams.
Not a ton of fantasy situations to worry about, but it did feel a little anti-climactic outside of the Greinke deal.
Tonight we continue into August with only 12 games for a Friday night, which seems a little odd.
I am OK with something smaller than a full slate, less to sift through, and not as much to consider to get you tripped up.
We do get a Boston/New York rivalry matchup, and games in Baltimore, Philly, Texas and Coors will be likely targets for many tonight.
Also, half of the schedule pitchers on this slate are lefties…that seems like a crazy, odd number for a big slate like this.
Let’s get to the tables, shall we?
PITCHER xFIP vs. LH
1. Joe Ross – 8.23
2. Glenn Sparkman – 6.15
3. Eric Lauer – 5.70
4. Dillon Peters – 5.67
5. Trevor Williams – 5.34
6. Ivan Nova – 5.10
7. Jason Vargas – 4.95
8. Aaron Brooks – 4.84
9. Yusei Kikuchi – 4.80
PITCHER xFIP vs. RH
1. Aaron Brooks – 5.45
2. Jason Vargas – 5.30
3. Yusei Kikuchi – 5.23
4. Dillon Peters – 5.17
5. Alex Wood – 5.10
6. Tyler Alexander – 4.96
7. Glenn Sparkman – 4.79
8. Kevin Gausman – 4.73
9. Martin Perez – 4.62
HITTER wOBA vs. LH
1. J.D. Martinez – Red Sox – .535
2. Jordan Luplow – Indians – .449
3. Cody Bellinger – Dodgers – .429
4. Ozzie Albies – Braves – .428
5. Anthony Rendon – Nationals – .419
6. DJ LeMahieu – Yankees – .415
7. Brian Dozier – Nationals – .407
8. Hunter Pence – Rangers – .405
9. Alex Bregman – Astros – .397
10. Edwin Encarnacion – Yankees – .391
Hitter wOBA vs. RH
1. Mike Trout – Angels – .450
2. Josh Bell – Pirates – .402
3. Fernando Tatis Jr. – Padres – .399
4. Bryan Reynolds – Pirates – .396
5. Jorge Polanco – Twins – .396
6. Austin Meadows – Rays – .394
7. Daniel Vogelbach – Mariners – .392
8. Michael Conforto – Mets – .390
9. Nelson Cruz – Twins – .389
10. Ketel Marte – Diamondbacks – .386
PITCHERS
Kevin Gausman – vs. Cincinnati Reds – $6,300
Analysis: It must be August baseball when Kevin Gausman enters the fray as a pitcher for me. He’s a guy I can never trust, but today’s temptation is far too elegant. Gausman draws the start against the Reds tonight and he’s just far too cheap on FanDuel against a busted Reds lineup. The strikeout upside is enormous and so is the potential for a win and quality start, as long as he can keep the damn ball in the park. Gausman has been very solid against lefties and righties, allowing a .335 wOBA to both sides of the plate while striking out lefties at an 11.34 K/9 and righties at an 8.14 K/9. The Reds strikeout 22% of the time as a team.
HITTERS
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 3B – Toronto Blue Jays – $3,300
Analysis: The dude is scorching right now, bellowing 2 home runs last night and draws another superb matchup for Friday. I don’t think it’s going to be long before Vlad Jr. is nearing the $4K mark on FanDuel. The Blue Jays are on my stack list against Aaron Brooks, who is quite possibly the worst pitcher on this slate, which is saying a lot considering Jason Vargas is pitching. Anyway, Brooks has been bad against both sides of the plate, but specifically against righties, he’s allowed a .342 wOBA with a 5.45 xFIP and a 1.71 HR/9. Vlad also should get a few cracks at this terrible bullpen, too.
Football returns!
Yes, it’s only the Hall of Fame game tonight, but it’s still football.
And we also have baseball tonight, just six games, but this is the time of the year when football begins to overshadow baseball.
Below are the xFIP and wOBA tables for today’s 6-game slate. Also, I don’t like enough cheap pitchers today to make a recommendation, so today is strictly hitters. Good luck!
Pitcher xFIP vs. LH
1. Asher Wojciechowski – 6.25
2. Anthony deSclafani – 5.49
3. Jack Flaherty – 4.93
4. Andrew Cashner – 4.72
5. Trent Thornton – 4.64
Pitcher xFIP vs. RH
1. Trent Thornton – 5.27
2. Andrew Cashner – 4.97
3. Joey Lucchesi – 4.49
4. Jon Lester – 4.25
Hitter wOBA vs. LH
1. Manny Machado – Padres – .525
2. J.D. Martinez – Red Sox – .518
3. Cody Bellinger – Dodgers – .432
4. Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox – .392
5. Hunter Renfroe – Padres – .391
Hitter wOBA vs. RH
1. Freddie Freeman – Braves – .417
2. Anthony Rizzo – Cubs – .407
3. George Springer – Astros – .397
4. Michael Brantley – Astros – .391
4. Austin Meadows – Rays – .391
HITTERS
Ji-Man Choi – 1B – Tampa Bay Rays – $2,700
Analysis: Andrew Cashner is on this slate, but there’s no way I play him. He’s so overdue for regression against lefties it’s insane. The Rays are just that team to make things difficult for Cashner, in a hitter’s park. Righties for the Rays are definitely in play here too, as Cashner owns a 4.97 xFIP and a .346 wOBA against them. But lefties, his ERA is 2.5 runs lower than his xFIP (2.32, 4.72). Choi owns a .352 wOBA and a .173 ISO and a 39% hard hit rate vs. righties.
The trade deadline looms.
We saw Trevor Bauer dealt late Tuesday in a 3-team deal with the Reds and Padres. Yasiel Puig also got moved in that trade.
Will Bumgarner, Syndergaard, Mike Minor and many others be dealt?
We will find out.
Pitchers xFIP vs. LH
1. Rick Porcello – 6.21
2. Sandy Alcantara – 5.71
3. Jeff Samardzija – 5.47
4. Zach Plesac – 5.28
5. Miles Mikolas – 5.07
6. Brett Anderson – 4.82
Pitchers xFIP vs. RH
1. Sandy Alcantara – 5.07
2. Zach Plesac – 5.00
3. Brett Anderson – 4.94
4. Vince Velasquez – 4.84
5. Rick Porcello – 4.56
PITCHERS
Vince Velasquez – vs. San Francisco – $7,700
Analysis: We nailed the pitchers last night, but the offenses just didn’t fit right. Velasquez gets the Giants today, who shit the bed against the ghost of Drew Smyly on Tuesday. Velasquez has strong strikeout upside here with a 9.88 K/9 vs. lefties and a 11.21 K/9 vs. righties. The Giants strikeout 20% of the time to righties and are in the bottom five in wOBA against them.
Today we have a full 15-game slate, a game in Coors, the Yankees in a big-time spot and lots of studs and crummy pitchers.
We also have the trade deadline looming, so you might need to spend some extra time today monitoring news before lock.
Good luck today! We only have the xFIP table, also. The wOBA table will return tomorrow!
Pitcher xFIP vs. LH
1. Drew VerHagen – 8.43
2. Drew Smyly – 7.19
3. Taylor Clarke – 6.43
4. Reynaldo Lopez – 6.23
5. Tanner Roark – 5.92
6. Tyler Beede – 5.81
7. Ariel Jurado – 5.51
8. Julio Teheran – 5.49
9. Adrian Houser – 5.35
10. Chris Bassit – 5.16
Pitcher xFIP vs. RH
1. Drew VerHagen – 6.84
2. Sean Reid-Foley – 5.93
3. Erick Fedde – 5.88
4. Zac Gallen – 5.76
5. Drew Smyly – 5.67
6. Kyle Freeland – 5.40
7. Mike Montgomery – 5.17
8. J.A. Happ – 5.02
9. Mike Leake – 5.01
10. Jake Odorizzi – 4.94
PITCHERS
Griffin Canning – vs. Detroit Tigers – $6,700
Analysis: So I will personally have a dilemma on FanDuel about which pitcher to use in my lineup. Griffin Canning stands out at a fantastic price and he gets the Tigers, a AAAA Minor League team that plays in the majors. Jamie Barria made value last night and didn’t get the win. Canning is much better than Barria and strikes out lefties at a 9.16 K/9 and righties at a 10.25 K/9.
Adrian Houser – at Oakland Athletics – $5,900
Analysis: The other pitcher on my list is Houser, who struggles mightily with lefties, but has been solid against righties. It’s tough because he’s young and making a start on the road. Houser strikes out lefties at a 9.28 K/9 and righties at an 8.91 K/9. Houser has allowed a .395 wOBA and 47% hard contact to lefties, but he also owns a .397 BABIP against them. But against righties, Houser has been studly with a 2.84 xFIP and .275 wOBA. The A’s will throw a lot of righties in their lineup, so if he can avoid the lefty landmines, Houser should perform well against an A’s team that is 18th in team wOBA vs. righties and a 21% strikeout rate.
HITTERS
Bo Bichette – SS – Toronto Blue Jays – $2,200
Analysis: The newly called up prospect is on FanDuel and he’s diirrrrt cheap. Lock city, even if he is a two-day-old prospect. But he has monstrous upside and is nearly priced at min. salary. The Blue Jays are in a great spot, too against lefty Mike Montgomery, who owns a .344 wOBA against righties with a 5.17 xFIP and 1.78 HR/9.
I have returned from a yearly outing with some ole buddies and ready to get back into the DFS fold.
I also have one week left before I am thrust into the daily routine of education (aka work), so I hope to make this week count even more.
Now the brass tax…7 games, one in Coors, not a lot of pitching. The usual tables are below, so let’s get to it!
Pitcher xFIP vs. LH
1. Thomas Pannone – 5.35
2. Jordan Zimmermann – 5.26
3. Jordan Lyles – 5.22
4. Brad Keller – 5.10
5. Kenta Maeda – 5.03
6. Merrill Kelly – 4.85
Pitcher xFIP vs. RH
1. Jaime Barria – 6.17
2. Thomas Pannone – 5.66
3. Jordan Zimmermann – 5.46
4. Brad Keller – 4.65
5. Merrill Kelly – 4.43
Hitters wOBA vs. LH
1. Ozzie Albies – Atlanta Braves – .439
2. Eduardo Escobar – Arizona Diamondbacks – .436
3. Anthony Rendon – Washington Nationals – .427
4. Brian Dozier – Washington Nationals – .414
5. Ronald Acuna Jr. – Atlanta Braves – .406
6. Ketel Marte – Arizona Diamondbacks – .401
Hitters wOBA vs. RH
1. Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels – .457
2. Cody Bellinger – Los Angeles Dodgers – .446
3. Josh Bell – Pittsburgh Pirates – .407
4. Charlie Blackmon – Colorado Rockies – .404
5. Fernando Tatis Jr. – San Diego Padres – .397
6. Max Muncy – Los Angeles Dodgers – .384
PITCHERS
Dinelson Lamet – vs. Baltimore Orioles – $6,600
Analysis: So since we have 7 games, I am staying away from Coors bats altogether on the Index because, come on, that’s just too easy and a cop out. So my preface here is that they will certainly be first in line for my lineups, hence why I love Lamet today. I love Lamet since he was called up. He provides strikeout upside as evidenced by his 14.73 K/9 vs. righties and 9.00 K/9 vs. lefties. He draws the Orioles today in San Diego, who 24th in team wOBA and strikeout 23% of the time. Considering the offense behind him will draw a bullpen game from one of the worst bullpens in the majors, Lamet has W upside on FanDuel.
I guess Tyler Saladino is the king of grand slams…and am not talking about Denny’s.
Dude hit his second grand slam in as many nights on Monday. FULL FADE TODAY!
We have a jam-packed slate with 15 games, tons of pitching options to consider and some of the best offenses in the best spots.
Two things about tonight’s recommendations…1
Enough chatting here, let’s go!
Pitcher xFIP vs. LH
1. Dylan Covey – 6.94
2. Tanner Roark – 5.93
3. Zach Davies – 5.79
4. Danny Duffy – 5.60
5. Felix Pena – 5.30
6. Dakota Hudson – 5.23
7. Kenta Maeda – 5.09
8. Chris Archer – 5.01
9. Trevor Bauer – 4.99
10. Dylan Bundy – 4.98
11. Jason Vargas – 4.94
12. Merrill Kelly – 4.94
13. Peter Lambert – 4.90
Pitcher xFIP vs. RH
1. Aaron Sanchez – 6.13
2. Mike Fiers – 5.82
3. Dylan Covey – 5.46
4. Jason Vargas – 5.26
5. Danny Duffy – 5.04
6. Dallas Keuchel – 4.94
7. Wade Miley – 4.68
Qualified Hitter wOBA vs. LH
1. Manny Machado – San Diego Padres – .532
2. Kris Bryant – Chicago Cubs – .464
3. Rhys Hoskins – Philadelphia Phillies – .446
4. Ozzie Albies – Atlanta Braves – .430
5. Ronald Acuna Jr. – Atlanta Braves – .414
6. Yandy Diaz – Tampa Bay Rays – .411
7. Matt Olson – Oakland Athletics – .401
8. Matt Chapman – Oakland Athletics – .392
9. Jean Segura – Philadelphia Phillies – .392
10. Jose Abreu – Chicago White Sox – .377
Qualified Hitter wOBA vs. RH
1. Christian Yelich – Milwaukee Brewers – .494
2. Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels – .466
3. Cody Bellinger – Los Angeles Dodgers – .453
4. Rafael Devers – Boston Red Sox – .418
5. Josh Bell – Pittsburgh Pirates – .410
6. Daniel Vogelbach – Seattle Mariners – .409
7. George Springer – Houston Astros – .406
8. Anthony Rendon – Washington Nationals – .401
9. Xander Bogaerts – Boston Red Sox – .401
10. Michael Brantley – Houston Astros – .399
PITCHERS
Yu Darvish – at San Francisco Giants – $8,500
Analysis: There are plenty of pitchers on this slate up top that are worth rostering, but I want the Dodgers today. Yu will be one of the pitchers I will be looking to at a discounted rate with lots of upside. The Giants have been a better team of late, but this ballpark will help hide Darvish’s weakness – the long ball. San Fran is still 24th in team wOBA with a .178 ISO and a strikeout rate of 20.2%. Darvish strikes out lefties at a 9.23 K/9 and righties at an elite 11.50 K/9. Darvish has allowed a .269 wOBA to righties and a .343 wOBA to lefties, just above league average.
Merrill Kelly – vs. Baltimore Orioles – $7,600
Analysis: Kelly is the other pitcher I really want to roster in the cheaper end. He gets the lowly Baltimore Orioles, who are 27th in team wOBA and strikes out at 23% clip vs. right-handed pitching. Kelly doesn’t have the strikeout numbers like Yu, but they certainly get a bump facing the O’s. Against righties, Kelly owns a 6.04 K/9 and a 7.96 K/9 to righties. But Kelly has been solid against both sides of the plate, so he feels safe with his .306 wOBA vs. lefties and .298 wOBA vs. righties.
HITTERS
Curtis Granderson – OF – Miami Marlins – $2,000
Analysis: Am I that ballsy enough to allow this recommendation be public and outside the paywall??? Apparently I am, but the Marlins haven’t made their way to the Index much this year. But Granderson is the absolute minimum against the worst pitcher on the slate in a hitter’s park. Seems like a very low-risk play to me! The Marlins get Dylan Covey, who as you can see the xFIP table above, is awful. He’s really bad against lefties with a .407 wOBA and a 1.47 HR/9 with a 7.36 BB/9. Granderson doesn’t have the power numbers he used to, but he still owns a .152 ISO with a 43% hard hit rate. Granderson has been rather unlucky holding a .200 BABIP.
Our very own Matt Butler is expecting another little one today, so we all wish him, his wife and his new addition the best!
And if you didn’t notice for today’s slate, DraftKings has brought Arcade Mode out of retirement, which is one of the few positive things I can say about them for the MLB 2019 season!
Now, there are 11 games on today’s slate. So let’s get to it. xFIP and wOBA tables are below. Good luck!
Pitcher xFIP vs. LH
1. Alec Mills – 11.59
2. Trevor Richards – 6.34
3. Marco Gonzales – 5.30
4. Trevor Williams – 5.20
5. Ivan Nova – 4.97
6. Aaron Brooks – 4.97
7. Peter Lambert – 4.90
8. Chase Anderson – 4.84
Pitcher xFIP vs. RH
1. Erick Fedde – 5.83
2. Aaron Brooks – 5.37
3. Adrian Sampson – 5.32
4. Marco Gonzales – 5.27
5. CC Sabathia – 5.00
6. Chase Anderson – 4.96
7. Homer Bailey – 4.90
8. Trevor Richards – 4.84
Qualified Hitter wOBA vs. LH
1. Joey Gallo – Texas Rangers – .476
2. J.D. Martinez – Boston Red Sox – .467
3. Jordan Luplow – Cleveland Indians – .451
4. C.J. Cron – Minnesota Twins – .425
5. Yandy Diaz – Tampa Bay Rays – .415
6. DJ LeMahieu – New York Yankees – .391
7. Hanser Alberto – Baltimore Orioles – .386
8. Xander Bogaerts – Boston Red Sox – .382
9. Pedro Severino – Baltimore Orioles – .378
10. Roberto Perez – Cleveland Indians – .375
Qualified Hitter wOBA vs. RH
1. Christian Yelich – Milwaukee Brewers – .494
2. Josh Bell – Pittsburgh Pirates – .411
3. Daniel Vogelbach – Seattle Mariners – .409
4. Anthony Rizzo – Chicago Cubs – .408
5. Anthony Rendon – Washington Nationals – .407
6. George Springer – Houston Astros – .406
7. Juan Soto – Washington Nationals – .394
8. Bryan Reynolds – Pittsburgh Pirates – .393
9. Yoan Moncada – Chicago White Sox – .391
10. Alex Bregman – Houston Astros – .389
PITCHERS
Robbie Ray – vs. Baltimore Orioles – $9,600
Analysis: I want to dive down and play guys like Marco Gonzales and Trevor Richards, but Robbie Ray has the best matchup on the board, bar none. He gets the Orioles at home, where balls do not fly like they used to. The Orioles are 29th in team wOBA vs. lefties while striking out at a 26% clip. Ray is striking out lefties 11.53 K/9 and righties at a 11.75 K/9. Ray might just have 20 strikeout upside here.
HITTERS
Stephen Vogt – C – San Francisco Giants – $2,500
Analysis: The Giants are interesting today as they have a lot of lefties to throw at Alec Mills, who owns an 11.59 xFIP after one start in 2019. Vogt against righties has payed off for those who have rostered him so far as he owns a .371 wOBA with a .272 ISO.
Tonight’s 14-game slate is chock full of offenses in great spots. We also have some stud pitchers to potentially pay up for, but that hasn’t been a normal strategy of mine in 2019 DFS.
Anyway, this is a big slate, there’s recommendations aplenty and data below for you to sift through in a short period of time, so check it out and good luck!
Pitchers xFIP vs. LH
1. Taylor Clarke – 6.60
2. Reynaldo Lopez – 6.60
3. Jhoulys Chacin – 6.35
4. Tyler Beede – 5.91
5. Jordan Zimmermann – 5.58
6. Julio Teheran – 5.54
7. Jake Arrieta – 5.36
8. Jose Suarez – 5.28
9. Jordan Lyles – 5.22
10. Chris Bassitt – 5.16
11. Tyler Mahle – 5.11
12. Adam Wainwright – 4.72
Pitchers xFIP vs. RH
1. Jose Suarez – 5.65
2. Kyle Freeland – 5.55
3. John Means – 5.52
4. Jordan Zimmermann – 5.36
5. Mike Leake – 5.24
6. J.A. Happ – 5.13
7. Julio Teheran – 5.06
8. Zac Gallen – 5.01
9. Mike Montgomery – 5.00
10. Taylor Clarke – 4.81
11. Jake Odorizzi – 4.79
Hitter wOBA vs. LH
1. J.D. Martinez – Boston Red Sox – .484
2. Jordan Luplow – Cleveland Indians – .435
3. Ozzie Albies – Atlanta Braves – .431
4. Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies – .423
5. Ian Desmond – Colorado Rockies – .416
6. Ronald Acuna – Atlanta Braves – .413
7. Roberto Perez – Cleveland Indians – .406
8. Domingo Santana – Seattle Mariners – .405
9. George Springer – Houston Astros – .400
10. Xander Bogaerts – Boston Red Sox – .398
Hitter wOBA vs. RH
1. Christian Yelich – Milwaukee Brewers – .490
2. Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels – .470
3. Cody Bellinger – Los Angeles Dodgers – .462
4. Josh Bell – Pittsburgh Pirates – .413
5. Shin-Soo Choo – Texas Rangers – .407
6. Anthony Rendon – Washington Nationals – .407
7. Juan Soto – Washington Nationals – .401
8. Hunter Dozier – Kansas City Royals – .396
9. Jorge Polanco – Minnesota Twins – .390
10. Michael Conforto – New York Mets – .390
PITCHERS
Marcus Stroman – at Detroit Tigers – $6,800
Analysis: This is where the value is at pitching tonight, and I imagine Stroman will be chalk city….and that is never a good thing for Stroman. But he draws the best matchup on the board against the lowly Tigers, who are the absolute nut low for offense against right-handed pitching. Detroit has fallen below the .300 wOBA line as a team and own a .148 ISO. They also strike out at a 24.6% clip, too. Stroman is just so cheap today and gets a ballpark boost. If he can keep his control in check and get those K’s, he should smash this value. He whiffs lefties at a 6.50 K/9 and righties at a 7.78 K/9.
HITTERS
Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies – $4,200
Analysis: The Rockies and Yankees should see some of the ownership tonight. They both draw lefties on the hill and both teams have guys that can eat lefties for lunch. Arenado is one of those guys, as you likely already know. But he’s not getting that Coors price, but is still getting ABs in a hitter’s park. Being on the road doesn’t hurt here either. The only downside is that Yankees bullpen. But the Rox get J.A. Happ, who owns a 5.13 xFIP and a .321 wOBA to righties along with a 1.99 HR/9.