Entries by Stephen Monahan

NFL Value Index – Week 13

Sorry Eli Manning, I don’t feel sorry for you.

The crybaby who didn’t want to play for the Chargers is no longer the Giants’ quarterback, and I am perfectly OK with that.

But to replace him with Geno Smith with rookie Davis Webb available to play?

I mean, I think Davis Webb, a Texas Tech transfer, is a human statue whose size and arm strength overshadow his lack of ability to play QB, a la Brock Osweiler 2.0.

But he’s got to be better than Geno?

Right?

I don’t know, it feels like Ben McAdoo knows he is on his way out and he made this decision in spite of the Giants’ organization – a big F U so to speak.

Speaking of that Giants/Raiders game quickly. It’s such a disappointing game to play for DFS. Crabtree is out and so is Janoris Jenkins, Amari Cooper also is unlikely to play. Eli is now benched, so it’s hard to say whether you can trust Geno to accurately get the ball to Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram. These two offenses get terrible defenses, but the offensive options seem limited based on precipitating factors from the past week.

This is going to be an interesting week. On paper, there doesn’t look to be a running back you feel like you have to pay up for, unless you want to continue to ride the Alvin Kamara train. If injury news falls our way, there are a ton of cheap RB options that are top-notch value plays. But then you probably wouldn’t be surprised to see a player like Leonard Fournette or Todd Gurley (or even Kamara), smash this week. There’s lots of value at QB as well and even some at WR. Tight End might actually be worth paying up for, defense as well.

So far, I have liked my lineups paying down at RB and paying up at receiver and tight end. I think roster construction and ownership could be very spread out based on the pricing on DraftKings. Whatever decisions you make this week, I hope DailyOverlay was able to help, especially if you make some big bucks.

Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @hotdogdailyDFS.

Here are this week’s position rankings plus the guys I like thereafter.

Quarterback

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Cam Newton
  3. Jameis Winston
  4. Philip Rivers
  5. Case Keenum

Running Back

  1. Todd Gurley
  2. Carlos Hyde
  3. Leonard Fournette
  4. Mark Ingram
  5. Jordan Howard

Wide Receivers

  1. DeAndre Hopkins
  2. Mike Evans
  3. Davante Adams
  4. Julio Jones
  5. Demaryius Thomas

Tight End

  1. Rob Gronkowski
  2. Hunter Henry
  3. Evan Engram
  4. Delanie Walker
  5. Jared Cook

Defense/Special Teams

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars
  2. LA Chargers
  3. New England Patriots
  4. Baltimore Ravens
  5. Detroit Lions

 

Cam Newton – QB – Carolina Panthers – $6,800

Analysis: With Cam Newton rushing more and him being the main focal point of this Carolina offense, the Panthers’ Superman offers a super high floor against the Saints defense, which has been banged up. Missing both Ken Crawley and Marshon Lattimore last week against the Rams, the Saints gave up 354 yards passing and two TDs to Jared Goff. Crawley is expected back, but Lattimore hasn’t practiced all week. I would definitely bump my love for Cam down a notch should both play and both expected to be as close to fully healthy as possible, but even then, Cam offers a safe floor with his red zone usage (3 rushing TDs past 6 games) and rushing upside. He has a solid possession receiver in Devin Funches, speedsters on the outside and a running back that can break a big play at any time through the passing game. There are so many ways Cam can score and if the Saints secondary is still banged up, couple that with their awful run defense, and we have a great spot for Carolina to score points.

Carlos Hyde – RB – San Francisco 49ers – $5,900

Analysis: The Jimmy G era begins in San Francisco this week as the NIners take on the Bears. Hyde is a usage monster in this offense already and what better way to acclimate himself to an offense in his first start with his new team than to throw lots of short, high percentage passes. That’s where Hyde can really flourish, especially since he has target totals of 13, 11 and 9 in three of the past four weeks. This play has more to do with the high-target share than his rushing touches, though the Bears have allowed 160+ yards on the ground in two of the last three weeks. San Fran is a high-paced team and lacks receiving weapons for Jimmy G, so Hyde feels like a great cash game lock due to hsi number of touches and passing game usage. You are getting an RB with WR 1 usage.

Mike Evans – WR – Tampa Bay Bucs – $7,100

Analysis: Jameis Winston returns and that bodes well for his favorite receivers – Mike Evans. We are almost under the $7K range for a guy who consistently gets 8-12 targets per week. I am in love with this TB/GB game overall and the secondaries have everything to do with it. If I am wrong about Evans and a few other guys on the Index this week in this game, I am going to have a pretty tough week I imagine. Anyway, Evans gets the banged up GB secondary, which is fourth overall in fantasy points allowed to wideout. They have allowed 13 TDs to opposing wideouts and more than 200 yards four times. Evans hasn’t scored in four weeks and didn’t at all while Winston was gone.

DeAndre Hopkins – WR – Houston Texans – $7,500

Analysis: Can you see me licking my chops? No. Well I am. Hopkins is my overall favorite play on the entire slate. Facing the Tennessee Titans and without Will Fuller in the mix, Hopkins is set up for another high-target, high-volume game as the Titans are 7th overall in fantasy points allowed to receivers this season. They have given up 15 TDs this season and have allowed multiple WR TDs in 5 games. Granted it was Watson at the helm in these two teams first meeting, Hopkins did have 10 catches on 12 targets for 100+ yards and a score. Since Watson’s injury, Hopkins’ targets are 16, 14, 9 and 10. He’s parlayed those numbers into 25 catches for 398 yards and 2 TDs. The only concern here is him having to catch balls from Tom Savage, but Savage has shown that Nuk is his go-to guy and he’s not afraid to pepper him with targets.

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December 1 by

NBA Value Index – Nov. 29

Injuries continue to be theme slate after slate in the NBA for the past week or so. Tonight doesn’t get any different. I mentioned the list of names Monday that were questionable or out coming into that night’s set of games, and it appears the list for tonight might be even longer. All questionable: Steph […]

November 29 by
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NBA Value Index – Nov. 26

I think my laptop is a little more eye level today after the Thanksgiving holiday. The grub was great, the family time was fun, my daughter turned two years old on Saturday and it’s back to the full-time work grind today. We also grind out another solid NBA slate, where we have 8 games and […]

November 27 by

NFL Value Index – Week 12

A silver lining for Thanksgiving 2017 – the food was great.

Football, DFS, my Dallas Cowboys? Puke.

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and got their fill in food and in the DFS leaderboards. While Thanksgiving’s 3-game slate was the start of Week 12, it feels like it really begins now and those games were just a bonus.

We have 11 games for our second helping of Week 12 and we have a lot to sift through this week. It’s an awesome slate with a lot of top-tier talent in great matchups in the high-price ranges for all positions and value looks to be somewhat scarce.

As always, we have the Week 12 rankings by position. These are based on everything but price with matchups and volume weighed the most.

Quarterbacks

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Russell Wilson
  3. Marcus Mariota
  4. Cam Newton
  5. Matt Ryan
  6. Carson Wentz

Running Backs

  1. Todd Gurley
  2. Kareem Hunt
  3. Mark Ingram
  4. LeSean McCoy
  5. Tevin Coleman

Wide Receivers

  1. Julio Jones
  2. A.J. Green
  3. T.Y. Hilton
  4. Michael Thomas
  5. Doug Baldwin

Tight Ends

  1. Rob Gronkowski
  2. Travis Kelce
  3. Jared Cook
  4. Zach Ertz
  5. Jack Doyle

Defense/Special Teams

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars
  2. Cincinnati Bengals
  3. Seattle Seahawks
  4. Philadelphia Eagles
  5. New England Patriots

Don’t forget to follow me at my DailyOverlay Twitter handle: @hotdogdailyDFS.

Have a lot of picks this week! As I said, I like this slate and there are a lot of spots for us to attack. I’ll keep the analyses short since we have so many to get through.

Marcus Mariota – QB – Tennessee Titans – $6,200

Analysis: Brady, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, all viable, but the first guy that caught my eye as underpriced and cheap is Mariota, who faces the Colts (8th overall in fantasy points allowed to QBs) indoors. Mariota had 306 and a TD in these two teams first meeting. The Colts have allowed at least 1 TD pass in all games played. The Titans have a new weapon in Corey Davis (more on him later) this time around and Mariota is coming off his worst game of the season. He has rushing upside as well, if he needs to escape.

Todd Gurley – RB – Los Angeles Rams – $8,800

Analysis: Maybe after this week Gurley will start getting pricing treatment a la Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson 2016. No Robert Woods, leaving more workload and target share to Gurley this week against the Saints, a run funnel defense. New Orleans allows 4.7 yards per carry to RBs. They also have allowed more than 80 targets and 60 catches to pass-catching backs for nearly 500 yards and 2 scores. This game has the highest total on the board and the Rams are home favorites. Cash-game lock.

T.Y. Hilton – WR – Indianapolis Colts – $6,700

Analysis: Follow the T.Y. checklist for when to play him: At home? Check. Competent QB throwing to him? Check. Facing a defense that is top-5 in fantasy points allowed to WRs? Check. Does T.Y. receive a huge target share? Check. Facing the Titans at home this week, T.Y. checks all the boxes above.

Tyler Kroft – TE – Cincinnati Bengals – $3,900

Analysis: Loved Kroft last week in a funnel spot. He got his TD, but got hurt. He’s going to be ok and is expected to play this week. TE is pretty bare after Kroft this week on DraftKings. Much like Hilton above, Kroft is a play because he checks some boxes, or really one box. Is Kroft a TE facing the Cleveland Browns? Yes. Kroft is in an offense with limited passing-game options and thus targets are funneled to him. The Browns have allowed 8 TDs to TEs this season.

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November 24 by
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NFL Value Index – Thanksgiving

It is that time for the absolute BEST holiday of the year. Forget Christmas, Halloween, Valentine’s Day, 4/20 and National Cinnamon Roll Day, Thanksgiving is the lock for best overall holiday. It’s the day we get to stuff our faces with stuffing, yams, 3 different potato dishes, rolls, gravy, turkey and dessert (except pumpkin pie […]

November 22 by
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NBA Value Index – Nov. 22

As a Thanksgiving appetizer, we have a huge 14-game slate in the NBA tonight.

There is some injury news to monitor tonight, most notably Kevin Durant who comes into this slate with a questionable tag.

Paul Millsap has been ruled out indefinitely in Denver, opening minutes for Juancho Hernangomez, Trey Lyles and Kenneth Faried. Mason Plumlee can get run at the 4 if needed as well. All four of these guys are super cheap this week and each got 20 minutes in the first game without Millsap. In what we expect to be an up-paced, high-scoring game, I honestly have interest in using all four in a lineup, soaking up all the usage and rebounds.

Damian Lillard is questionable as well, so if he sits against Philly, in a pace-up game, C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic might be auto locks for me.

Also of note, this was written prior to the Bulls/Lakers game Tuesday night.

Don’t forget to follow my new-ish DailyOverlay-only Twitter handle @hotdogdailyDFS

Enough chit chat, let’s get to today’s options!

Eric Bledsoe – PG/SG – Milwaukee Bucks – $6,500

Analysis: We saw what Oladipo did the other night in a revenge game, but that might’ve been partially because of the matchup he was in. With that said, there’s no greater revenge game on paper better than this one. Eric Bledsoe goes back to Phoenix to face his old team that benched him after the start of the season. Now the tough part here is truly trusting Jason Kidd and his lineups, but Bledsoe has been starting games at the point and in close games, he’s seen 30+ minutes. In the blowouts, 20-27 or so. I don’t know if I will pull the trigger in cash games tonight, but I certainly will fire him up in a lot of tournament lineups. As for the matchup on paper, this is a pace up game for the Bucks and the Suns are still one of the most generous teams in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards (they were that way when Bledsoe was the starter, too). Phoenix is the No.1 team in FP allowed to point guards, for the record.

Kris Dunn – PG – Chicago Bulls – $5,400

Analysis: Coming out of college, the Timberwolves drafted Dunn because they knew his potential as a starting PG. And the Bulls knew that when they traded for him in the Jimmy Butler deal. After starting off the year with injury and easing back into the lineup, the Dunn era officially begins tonight in Utah as he has dethroned Jerian Grant for the starting role at PG. Dunn has flashed 35-40 point upside in his past two games coming off the bench, but now we get to see what he does with starter’s minutes in a starter’s role. Right now, Dunn has a 27% usage rate with Grant off the floor, so imagine where it could be in a starter’s role. Now the matchup isn’t great in a projected slow-pace affair, but Dunn offers double-digit shot upside with the ability to rebound, punch in dimes and his defensive ability helps cover his floor with steals. Hes an all-around player that can cover his floor in multiple ways in case his shots aren’t falling.

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November 22 by

NBA Value Index – Nov. 20

We have a huge slate tonight, but it’s one that could conceivably change completely up until lock.

There’s a lot of injury news we are awaiting, and that could drastically change our thinking when making lineups.

John Wall, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis (though probably), Pat Beverly, Jeremy Lamb, Tyreke Evans, Tim Hardaway, Jr., Marvin Williams, Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee are all in question tonight.

If John Wall sits, Brad Beal, Otto Porter and Markieff become instantly better plays. IF Embiid sits, Dario Saric becomes the top value play on the slate and Ben Simmons is thrust into some ultra usage.

If Pat Beverly plays, we can downgrade Lou Williams, but give a boost to stacking the game against the Knicks. If Evans sits, that means Mario Chalmers gets a greater boost with Conley out, Gasol gets a boost as would Chandler Parsons, etc. And if Millsap sits, I really like Jokic and Mason Plumlee to get a bump in usage and playing time, respectively.

It’s a lot to consider, but I think Embiid and Wall are the top guys to keep an eye on.

With that said, let’s get to today’s recommendations from yours truly. Again, some of these could change as we get news of injuries and starting lineups.

Remember to follow me at my Daily Overlay Twitter handle: @hotdogdailyDFS

Dwayne Wade – PG/SG – Cleveland Cavaliers – $5,100

Analysis: No Iman Shumpert, no Derrick Rose, no Tristan Thompson. That leaves a lot of minutes to be eaten up by some of the Cavs’ bench players. Without Shumpert, who was taking over Rose’s PG minutes, Wade played 30+ minutes and a 50 spot. He’s flashed this upside at times, but now he has to take on a larger role. The Cavs are only favored by 2 and because of their lack of defense this year, they have been in some close, high-scoring games. Detroit has been really good to start the season, so it’s up to LeBron, Wade and Love to provide most of the scoring. If they can keep up, then Wade should be one of the top values of the day. Without those three guys on the floor this season, Wade is a smidge below Kevin Love for usage rate at 23.1% and is scoring 1.02 fantasy points per minute.

Victor Oladipo – SG – Indianapolis Pacers – $7,600

Analysis: #revengenarrative. Not only is this a revenge spot for Oladipo, but it’s one of the better fantasy games on the slate. Indy is 12th in pace of play facing the Magic who are 6th in pace of play this season. Oladipo has been on another level in his past 5 games, scoring 45, 37.5, 40, 51.75 and 34 fantasy points. Orlando has been fantasy christmas to the SG position, allowing this 6th most fantasy points to the position on this slate. Oladipo has a ridiculous 32,9% usage rate, which leads the Pacers. This game has a 220 O/U with Orlando favored by 3. All signs point to a splash day for the former Magic member.

Avery Bradley – SG – Detroit Pistons – $6,000

Analysis: One of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA, gets one of the best scoring matchups on the slate at the shooting guard position. The Cavs have been a fantasy sieve this season and are the top overall team in fantasy points allowed to SGs. J.R. Smith is an awful defender on the wing and Bradley gets a benefit from a pace-up spot plus turnover upside due to his defense. Detroit doesn’t play at a very fast pace, but the Cavs are top-10 overall in pace, giving the PIstons a bump and some extra possessions. Bradley is tied for No. 1 in usage with Reggie Jackson at 27.1%. Bradley is a near-lock for 30+ minutes tonight and is going to need his shooting ability to keep up with the offensive prowess of the Cavs. I have another Piston I love in this game, but more on that later.

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November 20 by

NFL Value Index – Week 11

I know my David Njoku call was a huge dud last week. Garrett Celek was a great play, but Njoku is clearly a better player overall.

And I wasn’t wrong. He had 6 targets, but his counterpart Seth DeValve is the one who got the TE touchdown last week against the Lions. Njoku ended the day with 1 catch.

But for tournaments, Njoku was a sharp play, it just didn’t pan out. A lot didn’t actually pan out in Week 10, but it clearly did for some people. That’s always the case.

But now we are getting into crunch time in the NFL season – Week 11. There’s really only 6 solid weeks of NFL football left (because Week 17 becomes somewhat like the preseason).

With Thanksgiving coming up as well, there are really only 5 more full slates where all games should matter. Trying to be profitable or continuing your profitability, those windows are quickly closing.

Hopefully, this week’s Value Index is one of the best yet. It has fallen out of the top 5 of the Expert Rankings to 6th, so we need a good rebound on this slate.

Before we get to this week’s selections, let’s down the raw rankings for each position, stacks and fades. I don’t think there are a ton of narratives this week, so we will skip that one again.

Quarterbacks

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Alex Smith
  3. Derek Carr
  4. Ryan Fitzpatrick
  5. Drew Brees

Running Backs

  1. Kareem Hunt
  2. Mark Ingram
  3. Todd Gurley
  4. LeSean McCoy
  5. Alvin Kamara

Wide Receivers

  1. Mike Evans
  2. Sterling Shepard
  3. Keenan Allen
  4. Brandin Cooks
  5. Michael Crabtree/Amari Cooper

Tight Ends

  1. Travis Kelce
  2. Rob Gronkowski
  3. Evan Engram
  4. Tyler Kroft
  5. Jared Cook

Defense/Special Teams

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars
  2. Los Angeles Chargers
  3. Cincinnati Bengals
  4. Cleveland Browns
  5. Arizona Cardinals

Top Stacks

  1. Alex Smith/Kareem Hunt/Tyreek Hill//Travis Kelce
  2. Tom Brady/Patriots RB/Brandin Cooks/Rob Gronkowski
  3. Derek Carr/Raiders WR/Jared Cook
  4. Drew Brees/Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara/Michael Thomas
  5. Ryan Fitzpatrick/Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson
  6. Eli Manning/Sterling Shepard/Evan Engram
  7. Devante Parker/Jarvis Landry

Top Fades

  1. Leonard Fournette
  2. Melvin Gordon
  3. Robert Woods
  4. Blake Bortles
  5. Drew Brees

Good luck this week and don’t forget to follow me at my DailyOverlay Twitter account @hotdogdailyDFS

Derek Carr – QB – Oakland Raiders – $6,400

Analysis: I have no idea why I haven’t heard a lot of chatter for Derek Carr this week. I liken this spot for him to Matthew Stafford last week – facing a porous pass defense with an offense that can’t run the ball. Maybe it’s because this game against New England is in Mexico CIty, but it’s the highest total on this board this week and the Raiders are coming off a bye. I expect them to play well despite the elevation. The Pats are the worst pass defense on this slate, allowing nearly 300 yards passing per game. New England’s defensive DVOA is 30th in the league, but their offense is No. 1 in DVOA. Whether Carr is playing from behind or with a lead, he’s in a going to have to throw the ball. This price tag is way too cheap.

Chris Thompson – RB – Washington Redskins – $5,400

Analysis: No Rob Kelley, should be playing from behind, lockdown corners for the Saints on the boundaries and facing a defense that gives up 22.8 fantasy points per game to RBs. Against pass-catching RBs, New Orleans is tied for second in 81 targets allowed to the position. Thompson is one of those backs that is going to see 5-6 targets out of the backfield each week, but now that he is the starter, I expect Thompson to see some uptick in targets and of course carries (but not like you would think). The Saints do allow 4.6 yards per carry, for what it’s worth. Samaje Perine should get a lot of the early down work, and Jay Gruden doesn’t like for Thompson to get a huge workload despite the injuries. I am on the fence on whether I like him well enough for cash this week, but he’s certainly got the upside for tournaments at a really cheap price tag.

Bruce Ellington – WR – Houston Texans – $3,000

Analysis: Yes, having Tom Savage as your quarterback is likely brutal. But it’s hard to argue Bruce Ellington as a salary saver this week as he moves into the No. 2 wideout position with Will Fuller being ruled out. Now, normally I might look the other way in instances like this, BUT with DeAndre Hopkins likely being shadowed by Patrick Peterson, this becomes a funnel spot for Ellington and the other pass catchers. The Cardinals are one of the toughest run defenses in the land as well, so Tom Savage might have to put the ball in the air quite a bit. He’s had 8 targets in each of his last two games and those were with Hopkins and Fuller. The Cardinals have been giving up fantasy points to guys not lining up opposite Patrick Peterson. Ellington is quick, shifty, fast, but small. Hopefully he gets some run on the inside of the field this week, a place the Cardinals are most susceptible.

Tyler Kroft – TE – Cincinnati Bengals – $2,900

Analysis: Yea I get that Kelce, Gronk, and Engram are in great spots at TE this week, but I am going to treat them more like WRs than TEs. I always like to pay down at TE and this is the perfect spot to do so. The Broncos have been a lockdown zone for opposing wideouts this season, but they have been gashed by tight ends. Kelce, the top-priced TE, faces the worst fantasy defense against TEs. Kroft, who is more than $5K cheaper, faces the second-worst defense against TEs in the Denver Broncos. TEs usually get priced up against the Broncos, but in this case, Kroft is dirt cheap. A.J. Green will be taken out of the game plan here, leaving the rest of the pass catchers at the mercy of the Broncos’ defense. Kroft has been receiving target totals of 5 or more in four out of the last 6 games. The Broncos have been allowing 18.4 FPPs this season. They have given up the most yards to opposing TEs (746) and have allowed 6 TDs to the position as well. At this price? It’s hard to beat.

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November 17 by

NBA Value Index – Nov. 13

While I am writing this, I am still curled up in a corner, sucking my thumb.

Week 10 in the NFL was brutal for me. But I am glad to have a much-needed distraction with the NBA to cure my ills.

We have a solid 9-game slate in the NBA tonight and lots of studs, some great value options and some nice, stackable games.

Let’s get down to business, shall we?

Lonzo Ball – PG – Los Angeles Lakers – $7,300

Analysis: Coming off his first career triple-double and putting up some consistent numbers before that, Ball has shown he can hang with the big boys, at least sometimes. There are a lot of mouths to feed for the Lakers, but they are 4th in pace of play and are on the road facing the Suns, who are 2nd in pace of play. The last time these two teams met, which was the second game of the season, Ball nearly put up a 60-spot himself. The Lakers look a bit different and the Suns most certainly do, since that game. But it’s hard to argue against Ball in this spot at what seems to be a very cheap price considering the upside he has flashed this season.

Lou Williams – PG/SG – Los Angeles Clippers – $5,600

Analysis: You’re my boy, Lou! Seriously, I love this guy. He’s usually contingent on scoring to produce in fantasy and he usually is a high-usage player off the bench, however, minutes and usage have opened up even more with the absence of Pat Beverly. In the two games without Bev, Lou has put up minutes of 39 and 36. Tonight he gets another uptempo game with the 76ers, who are 3rd in pace of play this season. Likely facing J.J. Redick defense at times, Williams is in another plus-scoring spot. He’s got 40-45 upside and is certainly mispriced when taking that, his minutes and his usage into consideration.

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November 13 by

NFL Value Index – Week 10

There was nothing like Week 9 that I’ve seen since playing daily fantasy sports.

Not only was it a crazy week for trades, the scramble was on as we got down to lock.

I don’t remember the order of the news coming out, but we got word that Zach Ertz was out, a surprise DNP from Leonard Fournette for violating team rules and then, albeit a mild note, Jeremy Hill was ruled inactive.

The first two events truly changed the slate, especially in cash games. I swapped to Trey Burton at TE, easiest play of the week while Fournette had me scrambling to the PlayDRAFT app to swap out, but the news of Fournette literally crashed their servers.

They made the inability to late swap Fournette and Ertz right with its customers, but it cost them more than $300K to do it.

Speaking of the DRAFT app, I started playing on it when it first came around a couple of years ago, then there was that silly declaration of DFS being “gambling” Texas and my right to play on DFS on DRAFT was taken away.

Then, my allowance magically appeared around the time the 2017 football season began.

football season was about to start and I’ve been playing ever since. So I encourage you to hop on to the DRAFT app and give me a follow at draft.com/hotdogphingers

Anyway, let’s dive into Week 10 where we have 11 games with most sporting low totals. We already have one big name not playing, and that’s Zeke Elliott, who I guess is now suspended for the next 6 games? Who knows if he will really serve that entire sentence.

As far as injuries are concerned, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and Matt Forte are the notable statuses to monitor this week. I especially will be on some Bilal Powell should Forte sit. At $4,000 on DraftKings, he would be in a smash spot against the Bucs porous run defense.

I absolutely love this slate, too. I think there are a lot of spots to attack and I find it fairly comfortable to predict potential outcomes. There are a lot of funnel spots, good teams versus bad teams and situations where injuries/suspensions can help narrow down where the production should come from.

With that said, let’s get to this weeks rankings and into our official picks. Remember, rankings are matchup based and not salary based. Also, follow my DailyOverlay Twitter feed @hotdogdailyDFS.

Quarterback

  1. Matthew Stafford
  2. Dak Prescott
  3. Ben Roethlisberger
  4. Jared Goff
  5. Matt Ryan

Running Back

  1. Le’Veon Bell
  2. Jordan Howard
  3. Leonard Fournette
  4. Todd Gurley
  5. LeSean McCoy

Wide Receivers

  1. A.J. Green
  2. Antonio Brown
  3. Julio Jones
  4. Michael Thomas
  5. DeAndre Hopkins

Tight End

  1. Cameron Brate
  2. Evan Engram
  3. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
  4. Kyle Rudolph
  5. Hunter Henry

Defense/Special Teams

  1. Bears
  2. Jaguars
  3. Lions
  4. Rams
  5. Steelers

Top Stacks

  1. Ben Roethlisberger/Le’Veon Bell/Antonio Brown
  2. Matt Ryan/Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu
  3. Matthew Stafford/Golden Tate
  4. Jared Goff/Todd Gurley/Sammy Watkins/Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp
  5. Drew Brees/Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara/Michael Thomas
  6. Dak Prescott/Dez Bryant
  7. Ryan Fitzpatrick/DeSean Jackson/Cameron Brate
  8. Jordan Howard/Bears DST
  9. Leonard Fournette/Jags DST
  10. Tyrod Taylor/LeSean McCoy/Charles Clay
  11. Andy Dalton/A.J. Green
  12. Eli Manning/Sterling Shepard/Evan Engram

Top Tournament Fades

  1. Jack Doyle
  2. Orleans Darkwa
  3. T.Y. Hilton
  4. Marvin Jones
  5. Jared Goff
  6. Drew Brees
  7. Juju Smith-Schuster
  8. Dak Prescott
  9. Evan Engram
  10. Lamar Miller
  11. Ameer Abdullah
  12. Keenan Allen
  13. Kelvin Benjamin
  14. Saints RBs
  15. Kirk Cousins

Matthew Stafford – QB – Detroit Lions – $6,800

Analysis: Welcome to the cash game lock of the slate. Mr. Stafford, at home, against a pass funnel defense coming off a bye. The Browns head to Detroit to take on the Lions. There is research out there that shows that teams coming off of a bye tend to play well (unless you are Green Bay and your quarterback is Brett Hundley). The Browns are the top-rated defense against the run and the Lions can’t run the ball very well. This has all the makings of a smash spot for Stafford and the Lions. Barring any big plays by the defense or special teams, the way the Lions will get their points this week is through the air. The Browns aren’t allowing a ton of yards passing per game for having a bad pass defense, but that is white noise and more about teams scoring lots of points against them early and not having to pass late. What is telling is the Browns’ 25.3 points allowed per game. The Lions score 25.8 points per game, mostly through the air, so this is a match made in heaven.

Jordan Howard – RB – Chicago Bears – $6,100

Analysis: Truthfully, I think Jordan Howard is the top running back option on the slate. Le’Veon feels ultra safe, but we all expect a blowout against the Colts, perhaps limiting the upside of Bell considering his price. But Howard is completely mispriced. He’s a workforce back who has had touches of 23, 19, 18, 36, 21, 23 in his past six games and had 5 targets in his last outing as well. It looks like Tarik Cohen is just a gadget player with Trubisky at QB and this team is all about clock control and pounding the rock. That fits perfectly here against the Packers, who are seventh in fantasy points allowed per game to RBs, giving up 839 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns while allowing 40 catches for 320 yards and 3 TDs against. He’s the first guy going in my cash lineups this week and the Bears DST is No. 2.

Sterling Shepard – WR – New York Giants – $5,500

Analysis: My second favorite cash game play of the week is Sterling Shepard. He’s the de facto No. 1 wide receiver due to all of the injuries (outside of maybe Evan Engram). The Giants are facing the 49ers, who have given up 99 catches for 1360 yards and 9 touchdowns to WRs this season, and are allowing 244.8 yards passing per game to go along with 26.6 points allowed per game. The 49ers run an uptempo offense, so that will mean more plays for the Giants on offense considering how bad their defense is, too. In Shepard’s return last week, he had 9 targets, 5 catches and 70 yards. Thankfully for us, he didn’t go nuts otherwise he might be priced out for us this week. But because he didn’t ball out but put up a respectable line, Shep’s price is very manageable to fit in this week with soft pricing on DraftKings.

Mohamed Sanu – WR – Atlanta Falcons – $5,100

Analysis: Julio Jones didn’t practice Thursday and if he doesn’t practice Friday in some capacity, that would really raise my eyebrow on whether he will actually suit up and be a No. 1 type wideout. Sanu’s stock would certainly rise against the Cowboys’ should Julio sit, but I still think he’s in a great spot regardless. Facing a zone defensive scheme, Sanu should be able to move around in the slot and find the space in the middle of the field where the Cowboys have been getting torched all season. Perimeter receivers haven’t been great, nor awful against the Cowboys this season, but it’s the slot guys and tight ends are where the damage is done against Dallas. Sanu’s had double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season. Even without Zeke, I expect the Cowboys to put up points and help keep the running back situation in check with Sean Lee manning the linebacking corps. Sanu is a great cash game play this week and has potential ceiling with Julio Jones’ availability in question.

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November 10 by

NBA Value Index – Nov. 7

Welcome to another edition of the Value Index!

We return today with a 10-game slate to sift through. There are some injury concerns to monitor closely today, including Wizards PG John Wall, who sat out Sunday’s game. HIs status as of the publication of this write up is unknown. His backup, Tim Frazier, also has his status in question due to injury.

Keep that situation in mind as we get close to lock, but in the meantime, I hope today’s recommendations aide your research and profitability. Good luck!

Donovan Mitchell – PG/SG – Utah Jazz – $4,600

Analysis: I have ridden the coattails of MItchell’s recent success the past couple of games. The dynamic rookie has been taking some minutes away from the other guards on this team, and he has posted great value lines in DFS the past couple of outings. The Jazz overall get a pace bump facing the 4th-ranked team in terms of pace of play. MItchell has had shot attempts of 20, 20 and 13 in his past 3 games and fantasy totals of 41, 38.25 and 29 in those outings, respectively. Mitchell can play either point or shooting guard in this offense, which are both positions the Sixers have given up gobs of fantasy points to this season (61.3 FPPG to PGs and 86.9 FPPG t0 SGs). Oh and MItchell currently LEADS his team in usage rate this season. At this price and that usage, give me all the Mitchell.

Bojan Bogdanovic – SG/SF – Indiana Pacers – $4,600

Analysis: Not to be confused with his brother, Boban (also on this slate), this Bogey has carved out a nice role with the Indiana Pacers this season, and his price has yet to see any kind of change. Bojan has flashed 30-point upside in 3 out of his last 5 games. In those 5 games, he’s played no less than 27 minutes and played 30 or more in 3 of those games. Facing the Pelicans, in a projected high-scoring, close affair, Bogey has another opportunity to smash value coming off a disappointing performance against the Knicks last time out.

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November 7 by

NFL Value Index – Week 9

I had a whole intro typed out heading into my usual Thursday night routine…

And then the fantasy world got turned upside down for Week 9 and for the rest of the season.

The alerts on my phone were going crazy with the DeShaun Watson injury. My jaw was in shock an awe, and slowly, as the confirmations started to come out about his ACL injury, I started to think about how much this changes this week’s slate.

I was planning on fading Watson, Hopkins and Fuller and pivoting to Lamar Miller. I might’ve hedged, but now I don’t have to worry about that.

So what are some impacts to this slate because of the Watson injury? Here are some things to consider, for all formats:

  1. Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott’s ownership are likely to rise.
  2. DeAndre Hopkins ownership will go way down.
  3. Lamar Miller ownership probably stays put
  4. Colts DST is a cheap streamer with Tom Savage at QB
  5. Will Fuller, for me, is one of the worst plays on the board because of his price.
  6. Julio Jones, Dez, A.J. Green and Michael Thomas ownership levels likely to increase.
  7. Most importantly, more people might pay up at running back.

As for me, nothing really changes. I’ve locked on to a lot of guys this week, personally. But I actually have a lot of interest in Nuk now that Watson is out, but I am still not sure he is worth $9,200.

I have a lot of recommendations this week as I really like this slate, and have since the Zeke suspension came down (and not too happy about that either). Hope you can keep up!

Time for the rankings, which are again raw points based and matchup based, salary not factored in.

Quarterbacks

  1. Drew Brees
  2. Dak Prescott
  3. Russell Wilson
  4. Alex Smith
  5. Cam Newton

Running Backs

  1. Kareem Hunt
  2. Todd Gurley
  3. Mark Ingram
  4. Adrian Peterson
  5. Christian McCaffrey

Wide Receivers

  1. Dez Bryant
  2. Michael Thomas
  3. Julio Jones
  4. DeAndre Hopkins
  5. T.Y. Hilton

Tight End

  1. Zach Ertz
  2. Jimmy Graham
  3. Jack Doyle
  4. Vernon Davis
  5. Tyler Kroft

Defense/Special Teams

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars
  2. Philadelphia Eagles
  3. New Orleans Saints
  4. Arizona Cardinals
  5. Denver Broncos

Top Stacks

  1. Dak Prescott/Dez Bryant
  2. Drew Brees/Mark Ingram/Michael Thomas
  3. Kareem Hunt/Tyreek Hill
  4. Russell Wilson/Doug Baldwin/Jimmy Graham
  5. Matt Ryan/Julio Jones
  6. Cam Newton/Christian McCaffrey
  7. Todd Gurley/Sammy Watkins
  8. Jacoby Brissett/T.Y. Hilton

Top Fades

  1. WIll Fuller
  2. Leonard Fournette
  3. A.J. Green
  4. MIke Evans
  5. Tennessee Titans DST

 

Drew Brees – QB – New Orleans Saints – $7,000

Analysis: I realize the Saints haven’t thrown for more than 2 touchdowns this season but once. I also realize that the Saints have been running the ball a lot more with Mark Ingram since the Adrian Peterson trade. I also realize this play could be risky considering the conservative box score numbers for Brees. But I feel very confident in Brees vs. the Buccaneers, who are allowing 274 yards passing and 24 points per game. Coming off a week where Brees didn’t throw a touchdown, this is a perfect spot for Brees to get the passing game going for him and his team.

Jacoby Brissett – QB – Indianapolis Colts – $5,200

Analysis: I have really gotten accustomed to paying down at QB, and I am certainly going to with Brissett this week. The Texans DST is in shambles with all of the injuries and lack of talent in the secondary. We saw what Russell Wilson (who is far superior to Brissett, I know that) did to this team almost a week ago. Brissett has the wheels, will be in indoors on turf (where his receivers flourish) and I would’ve liked to say that I felt he would be playing behind the whole game. Now I am not so sure. But what I am sure about is that Brissett has a high floor with rushing and touchdown upside in this matchup.

Dez Bryant – WR – Dallas Cowboys – $6,400

Analysis: We are in another situation where Dez Bryant is in a spot for a potential blowup. The question everyone wants to answer is the running back situation for the Cowboys – will it be Alfred Morris or Darren McFadden? Sure, one of those guys probably has a solid game, but I want to attack the Chiefs with the passing game of the Cowboys this week. I love this spot so much I will likely have Dez in 90-98 percent of my lineups. Not only did Dak not look his way enough against Washington, Dez has drawn a lot of tough WR/CB matchups. This week is certainly not one of them. Without Zeke, this is a great spot for Dez.against the Chiefs, who second in the league in average fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. This season, KC has surrendered 94 catches for 1,438 yards and 13 touchdowns to wide receivers. This is a feed me spot for Dez in this week’s games’ highest total.

Michael Thomas – WR – New Orleans Saints – $7,200

Analysis: Speaking of rebound/smash spots, here’s another. Should the Saints get into a shootout or even play from behind (or not truthfull), Michael Thomas is the guy Brees is going to look to. He has 8 or more targets in every game this season except one. If you like trends or believe in that type of squeaky wheel, then you should know that in every game this season Michael Thomas has seen double-digit targets and now he gets to face the worst secondary in the league in average fantasy points allowed. He also is averaging 6 catches per game and is on a 3-game endzone draught, a pace that isn’t likely to last very long.

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November 3 by