Entries by Stephen Monahan

NFL Value Index – Week 3

It’s hard to believe we are already into Week 3 of the NFL season. Thanksgiving will be here before we know it and I will probably be reiterating that thought.

The point of that lead is to try and savor each week of the football season, it goes by quickly and then it’s gone.

So Week 3, where we start to really see trends in teams, where we can start using defensive and offensive stats to make decisions.

Week 3, where 0-2 teams will likely play all out to avoid 0-3 and eventual playoff death sentence.

Week 3, where positive regression should start to fall into place.

Week 3, where negative regression can hit us in the back of the head by surprise.

Week 3, one more week closer to being 1/4 of the way through the NFL regular season.

Playing NFL DFS can be tricky sometimes. While Vegas odds and lines are a solid resource to lay a basis for your research, they aren’t something you should completely rely on and live and die by.

Digging deeper into research, reading multiple touts, listening to podcasts, reading game previews, following beat writers, and injury news can help you in narrowing down your list of players for the week.

Staying consistent to your strategy also is important, and having one set in stone should be one of your first steps. Bankroll management is another strategy to consider. So to pull back the curtains, here are a few things I am doing this NFL season in regards to DFS strategy

  1. Sticking to my bankroll – With a kid and a new job, I can’t play the volume or the entry amount I am used to, but that’s OK. I play between $60-$70 per week.
  2. Contest distribution – I used to play the MIlly Maker a lot because hey, who doesn’t want a shot at a million bucks? I am sure that I will play a lineup or two eventually, but for now, I stick with 50 percent cash and 50 percent of my bankroll in tournaments.
  3. Paying down at QB – Minus Tom Brady and a few Aaron Rodgers shares last week, I used cheap quarterbacks on the rest of my teams. Brady and Rodgers are likely the only QB’s I will pay up for, otherwise I will stick to guys below $7K and if I can go under $6K, even better.
  4. Play a core – Ty Mont, Rivers, Keenan Allen, Julio Jones and Chargers D/ST were in nearly 100 percent of all my lineups last week, then I just filled in the gaps. This week, my core so far is A.J. Green and Eagles D/ST. Wentz is a QB I am considering for high volume, but I do like David Carr, Kirk Cousins, Jacoby Brisett, Kizer and Cam quite a bit this week, so I don’t know if I have that one QB i love. I am still trying to figure out the rest. Injury news may clear up some of my questions.
  5. Maxing out the $1 tournament (20 entries) – Because I have a small bankroll, this allows me to get the feel of playing volume without spending a ton of money. This tournament pays out well on DK and I get to make a lot of multiple lineups.
  6. No tinker stinker time – I’ve always been bad about tinkering with lineups right up until lock. This is an AWFUL habit. You will get off plays you loved and trying to figure out more combos and then you delete a great lineup or two or three and you regret it all day. I’ve been making all of my lineups on Saturday night, early Sunday morning and then leaving them alone until lock (barring injury news). It’s been a stress relief and I am having more fun playing.
  7. Cash games – Last week I played Tom Brady in cash and Philip Rivers in tournaments. I probably should’ve just played Brady everywhere because he was the nuts, but I loved the salary relief Rivers gave me. My decision to play Brady was a naked one as I knew I needed exposure to that game but I wasn’t sure if I wanted to play Hogan or Gronk in cash, so I took all of the likely touchdowns I felt the Patriots would score and rolled with Brady. You should be thinking about this type of thing in cash games – get the highest exposure to scoring with a guy you like in a potential high-scoring game. That’s why I like Carr for cash this week, but not pairing him with Crab or Cooper because we are unsure who will have the bigger game and who might bust at those receiver prices.

This week’s pricing is really tight, so finding value is fairly difficult. I think paying down at QB, TE and D/ST will help sneak in a lot of the stud players. So lets get to the rankings and then the picks!

Quarterbacks

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2. Matt Ryan
  3. Derek Carr
  4. Carson Wentz
  5. Cam Newton

Running Backs

  1. Jay Ajayi
  2. Ty Montgomery
  3. Le’Veon Bell
  4. Kareem Hunt
  5. Christian McCaffrey

Wide Receivers

  1. A.J. Green
  2. Antonio Brown
  3. Julio Jones
  4. Amari Cooper
  5. Terrell Pryor

Tight End

  1. Jordan Reed
  2. Zach Ertz
  3. Jack Doyle
  4. Travis Kelce
  5. Rob Gronkowski

Defense/Special Teams

  1. Philadelphia Eagles
  2. New England Patriots
  3. Tennessee Titans
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (if Bradford doesn’t play)
  5. Broncos

Top Stacks

  1. Aaron Rodgers/Ty Montgomery
  2. Matt Ryan/Julio Jones
  3. Le’Veon Bell/Antonio Brown
  4. Derek Carr/Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree
  5. Carson Wentz/Alshon Jeffery/Zach Ertz
  6. Terrelle Pryor/Jordan Reed
  7. Cam Newton/Christian McCaffrey
  8. Jacoby Brissett/TY HIlton/Jack Doyle

Top Narratives

  1. First home game for Philly
  2. Aaron Rodgers at home
  3. Ben Roethlisberger on the road
  4. Cleveland/Oakland/NY Giants vs. Tight Ends
  5. Bengals/Saints/Giants in desperation mode

 

Derek Carr – QB – Oakland Raiders – $6,800

Analysis: I am not sure how much Derek Carr I will have because I am really looking forward to playing Carson Wentz and some other quarterbacks. But he is one of the top overall plays against the Washington Redskins in the week’s highest projected total game. This will be the best offense the Redskins will see this year. The Raiders are well rounded with multiple weapons for Carr to throw to in Crabtree and Cooper and they can use Marshawn Lynch as a hammer in the red zone and wear down the defense throughout the game. The Raiders DST also is weak, meaning we should see some points from the Redskins as well. Carr could be the late-night hammer you need playing in the Sunday night game.

Jay Ajayi – RB – Miami Dolphins – $7,700

Analysis: Bell, Hunt, Ty Mont and McCaffrey are all great options this week, in my opinion. But it’s Ajayi that really stands out to me, especially in cash games. Sure, Jay Cutler may pepper Parker and Landry early and often, but considering the opponent, I think the Dolphins reduce the amount Cutler needs to throw in this game considering Miami should be ahead for most of it. The Jets have been the league’s worst team against the run. They have allowed 190 and 180 yards in the first two games, that’s really all you need to know. Ajayi looked great against the Chargers and that was a road game, so why not another 100-yard game AND a TD or two in this one?

A.J. Green – WR – Cincinnati Bengals – $8,100

Analysis: My favorite overall play of the week. The Bengals have played some stiff competition in their first two games, and get a great draw this week in what should see them throwing the ball a lot to stay with or play catch-up to the hometown Packers. Green has been peppered with targets from QB Andy Dalton, but he hasn’t put up that big game yet. He hasn’t scored a TD either. If it weren’t for the Packers melting down at the end of the second quarter and after halftime, Julio Jones and the Falcons might’ve had a better output due to game script. This is a cheap price for AJ who I think scores 2 touchdowns Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles – DST – vs. New York Giants – $3,000

Analysis: Have you watched the Giants try to play offense yet? Their O-line is bad, and OBJ can only do so much. They have no running game either. The Eagles are in their first home game of the year and can make Eli’s life in the pocket a living hell. Philly’s secondary is weak and riddled with injury, but other than that, I can see them getting to Eli and making it difficult for the Giants to record first downs. If you need a cheap pivot, I also like the Titans DST against the hapless Seahawks.

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September 22 by

NFL Value Index – Week 2

Congrats to the man upstairs on punching his ticket to FantasyDraft’s first ever live final!

With a single dart throw, Greg, aka DailyCrusher, outscored the field tremendously en route to a seat to the live final for his chance to win part of a $1,000,000 purse.

Week 1 was interesting, but it was kind to Greg and it was kind to this guy also. Both of us have the weekly Weighted Consensus and other NFL content such as the Hot Sheet, to thank for our successes, especially on FantasyDraft.

So if you haven’t subscribed to the Consensus or any of our premium NFL content, it might be about time to give it a go, especially if Week 1 was unkind for you. Sign up here and start your 7-day free trial!

Now that housekeeping is complete, let’s move on to Week 2, shall we?

Now that we don’t have two Monday night games or a postponement, we have a little more research to sift through to perfect our roster construction. We also have a major injury to consider and how that situation will play out now that David Johnson is on the shelf for 2-3 months. Also, will OBJ play this week? Are the rookie RBs legit? And where have all the good QBs gone?

We have two premier games in this slate and it’s obvious that ownership is going to flock to them, and rightfully so. First we have angry Tom Brady traveling to New Orleans to take on the Saints. It also is the return of Brandin Cooks to the Superdome since being traded in the offseason. The other game with a big total is the Green Bay Packers who travel to Hotlanta to take on the Falcons. Both games have high O/U projections and both are indoors with prolific offenses. Seriously, it seems to easy. But what may seem easy, simple and obvious isn’t always what it seems.

Before we get to my favorite value plays for this week, here are my rankings by position, my favorite stacks and a list of who will likely be chalky based on chit chat around the industry. Remember, the rankings are not about price, but strictly about matchup and usage. My official picks will factor in everything for DFS.

Quarterbacks

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Aaron Rodgers
  3. Matt Ryan
  4. Drew Brees
  5. Derek Carr

Running Backs

  1. Le’Veon Bell
  2. Melvin Gordon
  3. LeSean McCoy
  4. Ezekiel Elliott
  5. Kareem Hunt

Wide Receivers

  1. Julio Jones
  2. Brandin Cooks
  3. Antonio Brown
  4. Amari Cooper
  5. Jordy Nelson

Tight End

  1. Rob Gronkowski
  2. Jimmy Graham
  3. Zach Ertz
  4. Jordan Reed
  5. Travis Kelce

D/ST

  1. Seattle Seahawks
  2. Arizona Cardinals
  3. Oakland Raiders
  4. San Diego Chargers
  5. Buccaneers

Top Stacks

  1. Tom Brady/Brandin Cooks/Rob Gronkowski
  2. Matt Ryan/Julio Jones
  3. Aaron Rodgers/Jordy Nelson/Ty Montgomery/Randall Cobb
  4. Derek Carr/Marshawn Lynch/Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree
  5. Philip Rivers/Melvin Gordon/Keenan Allen
  6. Ben Roethlisberger/Le’Veon Bell/Antonio Brown
  7. Russell Wilson/Doug Baldwin/Jimmy Graham
  8. Jamies Winston/Jacquizz Rodgers/Mike Evans

Chalk

Quarterbacks – Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Derek Carr

Running backs – Kareem Hunt, Mike Gillislee, Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, Tarik Cohen, Kerwynn Williams

Wide Receivers – Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Michael Thomas

Tight Ends – Gronk, Jimmy Graham, Jesse James, Austin Hooper, Charles Clay

Defense/Special Teams – Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Raves, Oakland Raiders

One more thing I want to add each week if there are enough to list – Top Narratives. Playing the Houston post-Hurricane Harvey narrative, the Eddie Lacy revenge narrative and Adrian Peterson revenge narrative were complete duds, but I think narratives matter. For Week 2, here are some storylines to consider…

  1. Angry Tom Brady/Patriots – After being embarrassed by the Chiefs on opening night, Brady and the Pats take on the Saints in the Superdome. Brady versus a bad defense is never a good combination for the opponent.
  2. Brandin Cooks Revenge – First game back in the Superdome and against his former team since being traded.
  3. Tampa Bay Hurricane Irma – First game since Hurricane Irma wreaked havoc on Florida.
  4. Los Angeles Chargers – First home game since moving to Los Angeles.
  5. Mike Glennon Revenge – Psyche. This narrative can kiss my ass.

Now, don’t forget to follow my DailyOverlay/sports-only Twitter account @HotdogDailyDFS! On to Week 2’s picks…

Oh and one more thing, I don’t look into any yards allowed, points allowed, yards gained, points scored per game stats until around week 4 when we have a few weeks under our belts. My narratives will be based on usage, price, Vegas odds and so on.

Philip Rivers – QB – San Diego Charges – $5,800

Analysis: Brady, Ryan, Carr, Brees, Winston, and A-Aron, I like them all, but it’s Rivers that comes in at a very, very cheap discount. Paying up for RB will be tougher this week due to the injury to DJ and Shady McCoy’s matchup against Carolina, but there are some great mid-tier and value RB options that could allow you to jam in the wide receivers up top (Julio, Brown, Cooks). Rivers and the Chargers place their first home game since moving to Los Angeles, so there’s that narrative going as well. This will be the Dolphins first game action of the season, and if Week 1 was any point of reference, Miami might come out a bit rusty in their first NFL game. As for Rivers, he has a great defense helping him out and a slew of weaponry to target from Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams to having a workhorse back Melvin Gordon helping him move the chains.

Ty Montgomery – RB – Green Bay Packers – $5,800

Analysis: Ty was one of my favorite plays last week and he received somewhere around 90 percent of snaps against the Seattle defense. T-Mont averaged a paltry average of yards per carry, but this was the Seahawks. Now Montgomery gets to play on turf and against a defense that gave up 8 catches to Tarik Cohen last week. This game against the Falcons has one of the highest totals on the slate and is the Sunday Night game. Hey nail, meet hammer.

Rob Gronkowski – TE – New England Patriots – $6,900

Analysis: Tom Brady is once against the highest-priced quarterback and his price went up. Now, I certainly think Brady is your cash game quarterback, but he is certainly a tournament fade because I don’t like to pay up for QBs most weeks. For that reason, I will almost be all in on Gronk this week and have a ton of shares of Brandin Cooks (revenge narrative). Gronk is criminally underpriced for the matchup against the Saints, who were one of the worst defenses in all of football last year. The Saints’ offense usually plays great with Drew Brees at home, so this is where I think Gronk has a chance to shine after expectedly busting last week against the Chiefs and Eric Berry (before the injury). I don’t like a lot of tight ends this week and Gronk is most certainly worth paying up for because he is just too cheap.

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September 15 by

NFL Value Index – Week 1

It’s baaaaaack!!!!

Yes, football is back in our lives once again. Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season kicked off Thursday night and this Sunday we get our first crack at winning some big prize pools on DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyDraft, etc.

For followers of the Value Index series, you might’ve realized that I bowed out a bit early at the end of our baseball coverage. I started back to work in a new position in education and things got really super crazy and busy. I was working all day and having to do work at night to help keep our ship afloat.

The chaos has died down some, but I just needed to step away from writing baseball so I could apply my focus on my career breadwinner.

But football season is now here and having to write once a week instead of 5 times per week is a little easier to manage during this busy stretch of work I am encountering.

A few things about this year’s Index that I want to incorporate.

  1. Similar to what I started doing after the MLB All-Star break, I will provide you with my top 5 rankings at each position based on matchups, usage, targets, touches, etc. But price will not be factored. For example, I may rank David Johnson No. 1 in my rankings, but he may not be my official pick because I might like another guy based on price a little bit more. But as far as talent, matchup, etc, DJ might clearly the top option on the board when you don’t factor in DFS pricing. Think of it as rankings for a season-long league, but try to incorporate it into DFS production.

  2. I want to provide my top 5 stacks. I did this for baseball, but in overall team form. For this part of the Index, I will provide 2 to 4 players to explain my stack. For example, if I like Aaron Rodgers, Ty Montgomery and Jordy Nelson vs. team X, then that’s how I will present it each week.

  3. I also will lay down the chalk. Throughout the week, I am listening, reading and researching and while our consensus articles do a great job of projecting ownership, I want to provide you all, based on chatter (podcasts, Twitter, Game Breakdowns, etc.) that I dive into and share who I feel will be chalky options in all formats.

  4. At the end of this article, I will provide my favorite plays of the week based on the value I expect in return. These will be plays that I have a lot of exposure to as of Thursday nights, when this article publishes. I will be looking for players who I feel can return 4x their salary or better.

Before we get to all of this week’s content, remember there are 12 games this week now due to incoming Hurricane Irma. Tampa Bay and Miami have postponed their Week 1 game and will now play Week 11 when both were scheduled to have their bye week.

RANKINGS

Quarterback

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2. Ben Roethlisberger
  3. Derek Carr
  4. Carson Palmer
  5. Matt Ryan

Running Back

  1. David Johnson
  2. Le’Veon Bell
  3. LeSean McCoy
  4. Bilal Powell
  5. Christian McCaffrey

Wide Receivers

  1. Antonio Brown
  2. Julio Jones
  3. Amari Cooper
  4. Jordy Nelson
  5. Michael Crabtree

Tight Ends

  1. Delanie Walker
  2. Zach Ertz
  3. Jordan Reed
  4. Greg Olsen
  5. Jason Witten

Defense/Special Teams

  1. Houston Texans
  2. Los Angeles Rams
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers
  4. Atlanta Falcons
  5. Green Bay Packers

Top Stacks

  1. Derek Carr/Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree
  2. Carson Palmer/David Johnson
  3. Ben Roethlisberger/Le’Veon Bell/Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant
  4. Tyrod Taylor/LeSean McCoy
  5. Marcus Mariota/Eric Decker/Delanie Walker

Chalk City

Quarterback – Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr

Running back – David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, LeSean McCoy

Wide Receivers – Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Kendall Wright, Terrelle Pryor, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Larry Fitzgerald

Tight Ends – Delanie Walker, Zach Ertz, Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed

Defense/Special Teams – Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills

Aaron Rodgers – QB – Green Bay Packers – $7,000

Analysis: So QB is supposed to be a predictable position, and I am all about taking QBs who have home/road splits that favor their production. For Aaron Rodgers, he’s money at home. Last year, he also was money on the road. But at home in Lambeau is where A-Rod really shines. This price for Rodgers is ridiculous for the upside Rodgers brings to the table and the usage on offense. He’s THE guy for Green Bay. There’s not a David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell to eat up touches or usage, there’s not a 3-down back that will take carries. There is only Aaron Rodgers and Rodgers will throw the ball 50 times to get the job done, even if it’s against Seattle, the Packers’ Week 1 opponent. At Lambeau last season, Rodgers had 26 TDs and only 4 INT. He has all his weapons back, he has Ty Montgomery who can be a pass-catching RB in this game with the Seattle run D getting a huge boost with the addition of Sheldon Richardson and he’s got a more reliable and athletic tight end in Martellus Bennett at his disposal. In this matchup last year, Rodgers was 18-for-23 for 246 yards and 3 TDs and priced at only $6,400! That game got out of hand early thanks to 5 Russell Wilson INTs, but if the 51-point O/U is pointing us in the right direction and this game is competitive until the end, then Rodgers could be in for a much bigger game this time around.

Carson Palmer – QB – Arizona Cardinals – $6,000

Analysis: It’s taken me awhile to get on board Carson Palmer this week. He’s not at home and his age and health are concerning. But this is Week 1 and the grind of a 17-week season takes its toll on older players later in the season (see Larry Fitzgerald, etc.). Palmer is fresh and he’s getting to play in a dome this week, a setting where Palmer has thrived most of his career, home or not. The Lions have solid corners defending the boundaries, but they and were one of the worst teams in defending pass-catching RBs and slot receivers. The Cardinals have arguably the best pass-catching, ground-and-pound RB in David Johnson and a fresh Larry Fitzgerald running around freely in the slot. The Lions allowed 246 passing yards per game and allowed nearly 20 points per game to opposing offenses. Palmer might struggle with downfield passes, but he will have David Johnson and Fitzgerald has safety nets. Johnson can easily break one for a big gain and a touchdown and Fitz will be a red zone target.

Christian McCaffrey – RB – Carolina Panthers – $5,400

Analysis: I already hate to recommend McCaffrey because he’s going to be ultra chalk this week. But he rightfully should be chalky. Not only did he flash his upside in the preseason and we’ve seen what he can do in college, but he’s getting to face a defense in rebuilding mode despite some savvy, stud linebackers returning to the team. McCaffrey is such a playmaker that it’s been reported he has his own playbook. Jonathan Stewart will still get work and may see goalline carries, but the Panthers and Cam Newton know what kind of player they have and they will need him to get as many touches as possible. We do have to keep in mind that he’s a rookie, playing on the road and in his first game, but his price and upside too mouthwatering to pass up against the San Francisco 49ers.

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September 8 by

MLB Value Index – August 18

Welcome to this Wednesday hump day edition of the Value Index! The countdown to football season continues, but we first must continue to push through the rest of the baseball DFS season. Tonight we almost have a full slate of action, which is unusual for a Wednesday. There are 13 games to be exact. But […]

August 23 by

MLB Value Index – August 22

Can you see this question?

I guess you weren’t blinded by yesterday’s solar eclipse or you just didn’t care?

While some were overjoyed by the experience, I was busy hauling ass in my office trying to get things done. I did stop for a brief moment to put on a welding mask and view the eclipse. That half second now allows me to say I’ve seen a solar eclipse with my own eyes.

Anyway, enough with the sun, let’s talk some baseball shall we? Here are today’s rankings.

Catcher

  1. Gary Sanchez
  2. Alex Avila
  3. Yadier Molina
  4. Hector Sanchez
  5. Omar Narvaez

First Base

  1. Anthony Rizzo
  2. Paul Goldschmidt
  3. Kendrys Morales
  4. Wilmer Flores
  5. Joey Votto

Second Base

  1. Robinson Cano
  2. Jonathan Schoop
  3. Jason Kipnis
  4. Rougned Odor
  5. Asdrubal Cabrera

Third Base

  1. Kris Bryant
  2. Adrian Beltre
  3. Nolan Arenado
  4. Jose Ramirez
  5. Jedd Gyorko

Shortstop

  1. Paul deJong
  2. Trevor Story
  3. Francisco Lindor
  4. Jean Segura
  5. Jose Peraza

Outfield

  1. Aaron Judge
  2. Yoenis Cespedes
  3. J.D. Martinez
  4. A.J. Pollock
  5. Kyle Schwarber

Pitchers

  1. Chris Archer
  2. Charlie Morton
  3. Jeff Samardzija
  4. Lance Lynn
  5. Ubaldo Jimenez

Top Stacks

  1. Chicago Cubs
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks
  3. New York Yankees
  4. New York Mets
  5. Houston Astros

 

Chris Archer – SP – Tampa Bay Rays – $12,400

Analysis: Chris Archer at home? Check. Chris Archer at home versus a team he owns? Check. Chris Archer at home against the Blue Jays? Check. In four games against the Blue Jays this season, Archer has recorded 28 innings, allowed 9 ER and struck out 34 for an average DK points total of 24.7 DraftKings points. Outside of Kendrys Morales’ random BvP dominance, this is a team that Archer should be able to carve up once again. Against Archer, the Blue Jays have a measly .229 batting average in 259 ABs. If you strike out Kendrys Morales’ 16-for-28, 6 double and 3 HR line against Archer, the numbers are even better.

Charlie Morton – SP – Houston Astros – $8,900

Analysis: Chuckie Morton has really turned around his career with the Astros. No one really saw this type of filth this year and it’s just fun to watch. Morton does carry an expensive price tag against a lofty Nationals’ offense, but the Nats are not the same offense without Bryce Harper. Against the current Washington bats, Morton has a solid .197 average allowed with two extra-base hits and 10 Ks in 66 ABs. At home this season, Morton has a stellar 7-2 record with a 3.45 ERA and 79 Ks in 73 innings pitched.

Alex Avila – C/1B – Chicago Cubs – $3,700

Analysis: The Cubs are the top stack of the night and while I love Rizzo, Bryant and Schwarber in that stack, I can’t pick them as one-off plays over a lot of depth at their positions. One guy I can use a a core play is a Avila, who gets a ballpark boost and an opposing pitcher upgrade against Homer Bailey. These two teams clash in the Great American Smallpark where Bailey owns a 14.33 ERA, allowing 26 ER in 16 IP while surrendering 6 HRs in that span. This doesn’t look good for Bailey tonight and Avila is one of the top crushers of right-handed pitching on his own team and in the majors.

 

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August 22 by

MLB Value Index – August 21

I was not around for a Friday Index because exhaustion got the best of me Thursday night. I was nodding off around 8 p.m. and never recovered.

But I have gotten some rest over the weekend and work calls for me against Monday. Some of the day will probably be spent attempting to view the solar eclipse, but will likely give up after a couple of minutes. Part of the day will be spent avoiding Game of Thrones spoilers, the rest will be spent (hopefully) working and then building MLB lineups.

We have only a couple of weeks left before the start of the NFL season, but I am still in baseball mode.

Tonight we have 7 games on the slate, a night solid, small DFS baseball day.

I don’t need to talk anymore, so let’s move on to today’s Index picks.

Chris Stratton – SP – San Francisco Giants – $6,800

Analysis: Soo, this is a recency bias play, no doubt. Pitching isn’t exactly stellar, so why not take a cheap guy in a great ballpark against a team that strikes out a lot? Stratton has been solid against RH bats this season, sporting a .244 wOBA, an 8.10 K/9 rate and a 29% hard contact rate. It’s lefties we have to worry about in this lineup – Vogt, Shaw, Thames and Walker. Let’s just hope the ballpark and the home atmosphere allows Stratton to notch the strikeouts and keep the damage low.

Rafael Devers – 3B – Boston Red Sox – $4,500

Analysis: Remember when everyone was on Mike Clevinger’s crotch? Yea, I wasn’t one of those people. Sorry, he’s not that good, he just had a good run of success. The Red Sox are streaking, fighting for the playoffs and the division, so it makes sense to elevate them as one the top offenses of the day, especially with their stud rookie Rafael Devers providing a huge spark to this lineup. Devers is 2-for-2 off Clevinger and currently sports a 9-game hitting streak. In five of those games, Devers has multiple hits. This game is in Progressive Field, which does favor the lefty bat some. Against lefties, Clevinger owns a .345 wOBA, 1.80 HR/9 rate and a 37% hard contact rate.

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August 21 by

MLB Value Index – August 17

Did you try out the new Pick ‘Em format on DraftKings lats night? I presented a lineup I submitted for a $4 large-field tournament. I didn’t have a lot of time yesterday to play DFS, so I left the lineup alone not knowing the Cleveland/Minny game had some rough weather. I would’ve pivoted to Judge […]

August 17 by

MLB Value Index – August 16 (Evening Only)

So I know there are 6 games in the early slate, but after looking things over, I am just not going to touch that one.

But the evening slate is certainly playable and we will get to that shortly.

Doing my research prior to writing today’s article, I noticed that DraftKings has a new way to play DFS – Pick ‘Em. I had heard this was coming, but though it would be a football rollout.

Instead we get to try it out for baseball, so I will share my pick’ em lineup before we get to the picks.

To make things short, Pick ‘Em involves no salary cap and you choose one player from a tier of players. Using classic baseball scoring, you accrue points based on the players drafted.

For example, Tier 1 tonight comprises pitchers Faria, Carrasco, Stroman, Hamels and Morton. There are 8 total tiers of players to choose from. Here is my lineup for tonight (barring anyone warming the bench).

Good luck in whatever format you play tonight, here are today’s classic format picks for tonight’s games:

 

Yu Darvish – SP – Los Angeles Dodgers – $13,700

Analysis: It appears my thoughts, and many others were true, Yu Darvish on an NL team is dangerous. Getting to face a pitcher, pitching in a pitcher’s park, and now on one of the best team’s in baseball, Darvish has been so good. He has 10 Ks in both starts for the Dodgers and he gets a great matchup tonight against the watered down White Sox. Chicago is 29th in team wOBA against RH bats and strikes out at a 23% clip.

Adrian Beltre – 3B – Texas Rangers – $5,000

Analysis: There’s not much for Mr. 3000 to play for, but I guess the Rangers are still in the hunt for a Wild Card spot. I don’t see it happening, but the Rangers don’t ever, ever quit. The Rangers got to Verlander last night and now face Gas Can Sanchez. Beltre has been dominant against Sanchez in his career – 9-for-13 with 2 doubles and 5 RBIs. We will see if Beltre can get that home run against him. Adrian has been very hot lately, recording multiple hit games in 4 of his last 6. Sanchez is a reverse-splits pitcher in his career and it’s hot in Texas. Lots of arrows pointing to this selection tonight.

Wilmer Flores – 1B/3B – New York Mets – $4,200

Analysis: Wilmer Flores is priced up tonight and you have to use him at loaded positions. He’s likely going to be low owned against lefty Jaime Garcia, but Flores is a guy we can trust against lefties most days. It doesn’t hurt that he has had some success against Garcia in his career, recording 4 hits in 12 ABs, three of which are extra bases (1 2B, 2 HRs). The Mets aren’t really playing for much these days having traded away Neil Walker and Jay Bruce, but that doesn’t always mean teams will phone it in. Flores always has playing time to play for and he gets to do that against lefties for sure.

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August 16 by

MLB Value Index – August 15

Today is a very pretty slate.

We have nearly a full slate of games with the Astros and Indians playing early for the second day in a row. But 14 games is basically a full slate and there are some solid pitching options at the top and in the middle of the pack. More on some of those players later.

The Index didn’t have a great showing, but one thing is for certain, Giancarlo Stanton is ridiculous. Can he keep up the torrid pace against Madison Bumgarner tonight? I like Maddy B today, but Stanton has BvP against him and his current state of ability to crush baseballs makes him a definite option today.

But there are plenty of other choices, plus Coors, to sift though so I say we get on with today;s rankings, and then of course the picks!

Catcher

  1. Yasmani Grandal
  2. Alex Avila
  3. Wilson Ramos
  4. Tyler Flowers
  5. Buster Posey

First Base

  1. Cody Bellinger
  2. Logan Morrison
  3. Ryan Zimmerman
  4. C.J. Cron
  5. Chris Davis

Second Base

  1. Neil Walker
  2. Chris Taylor
  3. Jason Kipnis
  4. D.J. LeMahieu
  5. Brian Dozier

Third Base

  1. Josh Donaldson
  2. Travis Shaw
  3. Kris Bryant
  4. Rafael Devers
  5. Manny Machado

Shortstop

  1. Trevor Story
  2. Corey Seager
  3. Francisco Lindor
  4. Paul deJong
  5. Xander Bogaerts

Outfield

  1. Mike Trout
  2. Nelson Cruz
  3. Giancarlo Stanton
  4. Corey Dickerson
  5. Eric Thames

Pitchers

  1. Madison Bumgarner
  2. Jacob deGrom
  3. Dinelson Lamet
  4. Mark Leiter, Jr.
  5. Alex Wood

Stacks

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. Cleveland Indians
  3. Colorado Rockies
  4. Chicago Cubs
  5. Baltimore Orioles

Josh Donaldson – 3B – Toronto Blue Jays – $4,600

Analysis: Finally, Josh Donaldson has become usable. One of my favorite plays last year has been unreliable this year as have most of the Blue Jays. But tonight is a good day for some Donaldson action. Facing lefty Blake Snell, who sports a .352 wOBA allowed, a 1.49 HR/9 and a 33% hard contact rate against RH bats, Donaldson has been on a heater with 10 hits and 4 homers in his past 10 games. Against Snell in his career, Donaldson is 1-for-6 with 2 walks.

Dinelson Lamet – SP – San Diego Padres – $8,500

Analysis: He may not be the top talent at pitcher tonight, he’s by far my favorite pitcher on this slate not named (guy who is in premium section below). He’s priced up, but has a great matchup at home against the Philadelphia Phillies. Against RH pitching this season, Philly is 23rd in team wOBA and strikes out 22% of the time.

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August 15 by

MLB Value Index – August 14

I am so very glad I have a distraction to come to each night – researching stats, writing this article, weighing options.

It’s a nice getaway from this cruel world we live in.

And like Forrest Gump, that’s all I am going to say about that…

But today sports continue and we have 10 games on today’s MLB slate. I feel like I have said this a lot lately, but the pitching is freaking terrible tonight! It’s gross. Like watching someone pick their nose and eat their boogers gross.

Somehow we will narrow down pitching options and throw up a few options into our lineups. But there are quite a few hitters that stick out tonight as we have a game in Coors and, well, like I said, the pitching is disastrous.

Shall we?

Jerad Eickhoff – SP – Philadelphia Phillies – $8,000

Analysis: I think it’s pretty clear Eickhoff is the top pitching option on the slate. Based on K upside, matchup, price and ballpark, I don’t see how you can argue against it with pricier options such as Quintana and Greinke. Eickhoff is by no means a safe bet, but he’s got offspeed stuff that can eat the Padres alive, and he’s done it once this season already against San Diego – 5 IP, 5 H, 8 Ks. Hopefully he can pitch deeper into this one and tone down the hits to lefties. Seriously, I think the only way Eickhoff doesn’t come through is if he gets BABIP’ed to death.

Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Miami Marlins – $5,700

Analysis: OK, confession. I have not rostered Giancarlo Stanton during this ridiculous home run heater. I keep thinking I am chasing and I don’t like to roster guys who have consecutive days of home runs because they can’t surely keep up that pace and ownership gets really high. Well, Stanton is another animal and has been the exception to my rule (and Joey Gallo, too). But I swear if Stanton fails me in this spot, I am not going to be mad, I am just going to laugh, shrug and have a beer. But anyone who has followed the Index knows I love Stanton against lefties. And Stanton draws Ty Blach, who has been a serviceable starter for San Fran. But I’ll take the hot hitter with double dong upside against a lefty. Blach has limited damaged against RH bats – .323 wOBA, 0.95 K/9 rate and a 31% hard contact rate, but this is Stanton and his 8 home runs in 11 games is something that just can’t be ignored. For giggles, I looked up Stanton’s stats in last 14 days, here’s the line – .542 wOBA, .341 average, .614 ISO, 8 HRs, 51.6% hard contact rate. Redonk.

Corey Dickerson – OF – Tampa Bay Rays – $3,600

Analysis: I am going to live or die with the Tampa stack tonight. News flash, they have one of the best matchups on the board and I am not sure if people will go to them. Not because they aren’t worthy, but they are cheap and I don’t know if people will feel like they have to pay down for them. So, anyway, if you want more on Tampa, subscribe or sign-up for our 7-day free trial to read the rest below, but today’s freebie is Corey Dickerson vs. Nick Tepesch, a dreadful former Ranger “great.” This game is in Rogers’ Centre, a hitter’s paradise and bump for Tampa, who has a 35% hard contact rate against RH pitchers and a .188 ISO. Oh, so Tepesch, his numbers are too ridiculous this year because of sample size, but since 2016, Tepesch gives up a .434 wOBA, a 2.08 HR/9 and a 50% hard contact rate against lefties. Oh, that’s so bad.

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August 14 by

MLB Value Index – August 11

Back at it for a full-slate Friday, we are! Make picks, I will. Talk like Yoda, I’ll stop. We have 15 games in the majors and pitching is lackluster. There’s one clear top option and he makes today’s Index. But before we get to the picks, let’s take a look at today’s rankings. Catcher Martin […]

August 11 by

MLB Value Index – August 10

Two days in a row, Aaron Judge has not come through for the Value Index. Maybe pitchers have figured him out. Maybe he is just in a funk. He’s been striking out at an alarming rate  Meanwhile, his NL rookie counterpart Cody Bellinger continues to stroke home runs and is certainly a shoe-in NL Rookie […]

August 10 by