Entries by Stephen Monahan

MLB Value Index – June 27

I guess DraftKings is baiting us to pay down for bats with some of their pricing tonight.

We have a 15-game slate with a slew of solid pitching options to choose from. Scherzer, C-Lo, Severino and a bunch of value are in play today.

As you will see in some of my selections, there are some mistakenly low-priced stud bats available tonight.

The big studs are priced appropriately – Judge, Harper, Bellinger, Goldy, Betts, etc.

Anyway, I like this slate a lot. I think there’s going to be more that opens up as the day progresses, but this is what I like pre-lineup publishing.

James Paxton – SP – Seattle Mariners – $8,700

Analysis: This is one of the prices that seems like a miscue. I know it’s the Phillies and they strike out 19% of the time against lefties (used to be higher, too), and I know Paxton has struggled some, but he’s at home. And at home, he’s 4-1 with a 2.48 ERA. This is the best cash game play of the night and maybe the best value of the slate.

Sean Newcomb – SP – Atlanta Braves – $6,700

Analysis: Lefty versus the Padres…You had me at lefty versus the Padres. Newcomb is a bright, young prospect that has limited hard contact thus far. He has a 10.3% SwStr rate and a 6.38 K/9 rate this season and as he gets experience, that should go up. That could start tonight against the hapless Padres, who are last in team wOBA against southpaws. They strike out 24.2% of the time and we get PETCO to favor the Padres.

J.D. Martinez – OF – Detroit Tigers – $4,500

Analysis: This price tag doesn’t scream value, but with a .652 wOBA, a .556 ISO and a 50% hard contact rate against lefties, this tag is well worth the play. Martinez has been in the $5K range this season, but in the mid 4s is a great spot to target.

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June 27 by

MLB Value Index – June 26

We are winding down to the worst week of the year – the baseball All-Star break.

But it’s OK, we still have a couple of weeks left to line our pockets before baseball DFS takes a hiatus.

Anyway, let’s focus on tonight, in which we have a small 6-game slate.

I don’t know how the pitching will fall on this slate. We have Chris Sale, reasonably priced I think, and then there’s everyone else.

We have the Yankees against a porous lefty (more on them later) and some other bad options as well.

Anyway, I am not holding back tonight. It’s a Yankees’ stack kind of day and somehow I will have to figure out what to do with Sale.

The Dodgers and Nats are firmly in play, but I will be targeting the Yanks heavily (and assuming the weather holds up).

Let’s get to today’s options…


Tyler Austin – OF – New York Yankees – $3,200

Analysis: He’s already been playing and now Aaron Hicks is out with an injury. Welcome to one of the more popular value plays on the slate. Hopefully he doesn’t bat too high in the order against lefty David Holmberg, but either way, he’s going to be hard to pass up tonight. In limited action, Austin has a .460 wOBA, a .304 ISO and a 61% hard contact rate against lefties since 2016.

Aaron Judge – OF – New York Yankees – $5,600

Analysis: All rise. What a catchphrase. Judge is the man and his gavel strikes hot, especially against lefties – .496 wOBA, .383 ISO, 48% hard contact rate.

Gary Sanchez – C – New York Yankees – $5,000

Analysis: I normally don’t like to pay up at catcher, unless it’s Buster Posey, but I am starting to add Sanchez to that list. He hasn’t quite destroyed lefty pitching as much as Judge and Matt Holliday (more on him later), but his contact rate is at 47% and his numbers against lefties have already improved this season. Trust me, it’s going to get there with that kind of contact.

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June 26 by

MLB Value Index – June 23

Friday brings us a full slate of MLB action tonight. There are plenty of pitching options to choose from, and if you are playing on DraftKings, you may notice that many of the top hitters are priced up. So for this particular edition of the Index, my focus is finding straight value and one offs. […]

June 23 by

MLB Value Index – June 22 (All Day)

After a two-day absence, I am happy to be back to talk fantasy baseball. Having a guys retreat definitely was fun and nice way to recharge the ol’ DFS battery. Today we have 12 games, but split into two slates with 6 early and 6 late games. Both slates have a stud option at pitcher, […]

June 22 by

MLB Value Index – June 19

Hello Monday! Yea, you might grunt at the word Monday, but I must say I haven’t been this excited for a Monday in awhile. That’s because I am going on a little mini guys-only vacation today with some buddies, take in tonight’s Rangers game against the Blue Jays (first home series since the Rougie Odor […]

June 19 by

MLB Value Index – June 16

Well hello again 15-game slate! It’s Friday and that must mean Cubs are on the road tonight. Tonight is a solid slate of action with some big names at the top of the pecking order, plus a game in Coors, which went off last night. I am doing this a little differently for tonight. For […]

June 16 by

MLB Value Index – June 15 (Evening)

Chris Sale at $14.1K on DraftKings today…wow. But he’s facing the Phillies, but in a small ball park. Sale seems like an elite lock today, but damn that’s high. We haven’t seen a pitcher priced that high all year on DraftKings. Anyway, you can figure out that one, I will help you with the rest […]

June 15 by

MLB Value Index – June 14

If you are playing the early slate today, you play Bryce Harper. He’s facing Julio Teheran and if you don’t know by now, Harper owns him.

Harper is 15-for-33 with 3 doubles, 7 HRs, 17 RBIs, 5 BBs and a steal. He can do it all against Teheran, who is a dreadful pitcher, especially against lefties.

But for official purposes, we will concentrate on tonight’s 11-game slate. And might I say, the pitching looks awful.

Corey Kluber is the top option, and he’s priced like he’s facing the Padres in PETCO. I don’t care if he beats me, I just don’t think I am playing Corey Kluber tonight.

In 2017, Kluber is allowing 42% hard contact against right handed bats, and 31% to lefties.

BUT if there is one thing to argue for playing Kluber tonight, it’s that he might be underowned. And for what it’s worth, Kluber always starts the season sluggish and gets knocked around. It’s this time of the year when he starts rounding into form.

Right now though, I don’t know if I can roster him. Time will tell. The second high-priced option is Michael Pineda, who is $11.2K, and is facing the Angels. I think you are paying for the safety, but without the K upside in this matchup, I don’t know if I can pay up for him either, especially in tournaments.

Right now, I am paying down for pitching, but that could always change.

I can say right now that there are a lot of first basemen I want to play on this slate. Hopefully I can pair them together in arcade mode to get that kind of combination.

On this slate is also Andrew Cashner. As a Rangers fan, I hate this guy in DFS. He’s not good and he keeps trolling us. It doesn’t help that my other hated Ranger pitcher, Nick Martinez, just trolled me last night against the Astros. The Rangers are playing well and are catching the Astros at a good time, when their starting pitchers are hurt. I can see Cashner being an ass again and pitching well, making us all roll our eyes.

Or he gets shelled. I might have to play it both ways.

Hopefully, whatever you decide, it works out for you tonight.

Now for a little help…

 

Evan Longoria – 3B – Tampa Bay Rays – $3,800

Analysis: Make no mistake, Francisco Liriano’s price is tempting and he has pitched well at home this season, but I am going to have my fair share of Longo tonight. He’s go the BvP against Liriano, the hard contact against lefties (42%) and the ballpark upgrade that make me feel like the pieces fit.

Anthony Rizzo – 1B – Chicago Cubs – $4,600

Analysis: So the experiment worked for one night, can we make it two? Rizzo hit leadoff Tuesday and gets an even better matchup against Matt Harvey. We will see if he remains the leadoff hitter, but either way, he’s one of three first basemen on the Index today. He’s the one I like in the $4K range, and he’s really hitting well right now. I imagine he’s chalky in cash games and tournaments being the No. 1 hitter on the road against a fading pitcher.

Yoenis Cespedes – OF – New York Mets – $4,500

Analysis: Well, Cespedes’ buddy Wilmer Flores is not on the Index for a third day in a row. He just doesn’t look right at the plate. I will still have shares of Flores, but it’s Cespedes that I actually love.Up against lefty Mike Montgomery, Cespedes has a couple of walks in just 3 ABs against him. I like seeing that in early BvP numbers. It’s only a matter of time before Cespedes connects. Against lefties this season, Cespedes has been brutal for them, amassing a .469 wOBA, a .579 ISO and a 43% hard contact rate.

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June 14 by

MLB Value Index – June 13

We have another full slate of games in the majors tonight! And we are going to have some tough decisions to make because the GOAT, Clayton Kershaw, plus a couple of other stud pitchers in solid matchups are on the slate as well. To play Kershaw, I think it’s going to be really easy to […]

June 13 by

MLB Value Index – June 12

Hope everyone had a great weekend, spent some time with family, had some time to chill and relax and hopefully won some money in DFS.

We get back to the grind today as Monday provides a 9-game slate in the majors.

But before we get to today’s picks, let me just say, as a Rangers fan, I hate Andrew Cashner. The guy is the king of misdirection in baseball DFS. The Nats’ offense is usually where pitchers go to die, figuratively speaking, but no, Cashner held the Nats in check some how over the weekend AND the Rangers swept the Nats. Baseball is a funny sport sometimes…

Anyway, we have Strasburg, deGrom and Yu as the top aces on the board, but I can make an argument against all of them.

Strasburg faces a team that doesn’t strike out a lot and is priced very high, so I think he’s at least safe for cash games, but maybe doesn’t pay off his salary for tournaments.

deGrom has shown a decrease in velocity late, especially to lefty bats.

Yu also faces a team that doesn’t strike out a bunch and who never seems to lose, plus the Astros are one of the top offenses against RH bats.

It will be interesting to see where I land for pitching because I am not sold on anyone as of this writeup, so it’s bats only for me.

Hopefully you will arrive at the correct pitching options. You can get out Brad’s On the Hill article to help you out, he’s been doing pretty well with nailing down pitching options.

Anyway, let’s get to today’s picks!

Nelson Cruz – OF – Seattle Mariners – $5,100

Analysis: Oh this gif, so close to a World Series victory….but I digress. Here we have Cruz against a lefty, Aldaberto Mejia of the Twins. The Mariners are in a ballpark that favors RH bats. Mejia has been generous to RH bats this season, allowing a .367 wOBA, a 1.93 HR/9 rate with a .264 BABIP and a 5.29 xFIP. When a pitcher is giving up a lot of action to a handedness and the BABIP is lower than league average, oh man, I can’t stop drooling here.

Daniel Nava – OF – Philadelphia Phillies – $3,200

Analysis: There are lots of things pointing in Nava’s favor today. One, he’s facing his old team. Two, he’s facing Rick Porcello, who is allowing 44% hard contact, a .358 wOBA and a 1.64 HR/9 rate to lefties. Nava should be in the lineup tonight with Cesar Hernandez on the DL. On the season, Nava has a .412 wOBA, a .186 ISO and a 36% hard contact rate in limited action.

Wil Myers – 1B – San Diego Padres – $3,800

Analysis: I don’t care that Bronson Arroyo is facing the Padres, you will never convince me to roster the bastard. I am sure people will try to get you to do it considering the matchup, and yada, yada. Anyway, let me convince you of a couple of Padres today, one of which being mister Myers. His price and upside is way too cheap in this matchup. Myers is actually a reverse splits guy and mashes righties. In 2017, Myers leads his team in wOBA against RH pitching at .337 to go along with a .239 ISO and a 44% hard contact rate. As far as boy wonder Bronson is concerned, RH bats have a .383 wOBA, a 2.08 HR/9 rate and a 32% hard contact rate.

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June 12 by

MLB Value Index – June 9

Thursday never looking back, it’s Friday and I’m in love…with this slate. I am so in love that I could probably give you 20 plays that I absolutely love tonight, maybe more. Narrowing down today’s selections has been difficult. Today is definitely a high-volume, multi-entry day for me. We have an s-ton of gas cans […]

June 9 by

MLB Value Index – June 8

Scooter Gennett was the easiest fade on the board Wednesday. Despite his BvP and relatively cheap price tag, I couldn’t pull the trigger, not even in cash games. And while the fade yielded me no profit anyway, I at least feel victorious for not falling into such an obvious trap. To the mice, did you […]

June 8 by