Entries by Stephen Monahan

MLB Value Index – June 7

Today we have a split slate of games for hump day, but there are only 3 afternoon games to target for DFS, so we are going to focus solely on the night slate.

For tonight’s slate, we don’t have Kershaw or Coors to choose from but we do have a couple of A-1 aces on the bump in Dallas Keuchel, Yu Darvish and Zack Greinke, both of whom are up against elite matchups.

Yankee Stadium, Camden, Great American Smallpark (with Arroyo on the mound), Chase Field and Globe Life Park are all hitter-friendly venues we can attack tonight. There are also some solid value plays to consider at pitcher, but they are young guys that are in plum matchups on paper.

Good luck tonight!

Nelson Cruz – OF – Seattle Mariners – $4,900

Analysis: Hey look it’s Cruz against a lefty! After recording his fourth straight game with a hit last night, Cruz should be fired up in all formats against Twins’ lefty Adalerto Mejia who has given up a .358 wOBA and a 1.44 HR/9 rate to RH bats this season.

Rougned Odor – 2B – Texas Rangers – $2,900

Analysis: A night after trouncing Jacob deGrom and the Mets, the Rangers are back at it again tonight versus another seemingly imposing matchup in starter Zack Wheeler. But I think this is a spot where Wheeler gets into trouble. Prices are down for the Rangers in a hot, humid environment in Texas. I know, why not Scooter Gennett, right? I actually wish he hadn;’t smacked 4 home runs last night, otherwise I would be all over him against Lance Lynn. But a pivot and much cheaper option is Odor who has been swinging a hotter bat of late. What people might not realize here is that Wheeler has been giving up 41% hard contact to lefties this season.

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June 7 by

MLB Value Index – June 6

It’s Tuesday and tonight we have a full 15-game slate of action in the majors.

Roster construction is going to be very interesting today because we have a lot of stud pitchers, a game in Coors, a game at Chase, a game at Globe Life, a game at Yankee Stadium, a game at Camden, a game at SunTrust, and a game at the Great American Smallpark.

Lots of hitters parks and some top-shelf pitchers to choose. I am going to recommend the plays I like today, even if rostering them takes you away from playing Scherzer. There are two pitchers in the upper tier I like and you can fit many of the players listed using these two fellas.

I like a lot of first basemen tonight, so I couldn’t just pick one, so therefore I left you with none below as official picks. But guys I am looking at – Rizzo, Chris Davis, Miggy and Morales to name a few.

Today is a premium day for the Index, so you will get a pitcher and a bat for free, but the rest will require a subscription.

Now time for picks!

Chris Archer – SP – Tampa Bay Rays – $10,600

Analysis: One of my many rules of thumb for baseball DFS is play Chris Archer at home. Maybe I need to write out my rules for you to read? Anyway, this rule included Jacob deGrom and that blew up in my face, but there’s always going to be an outlier. Hopefully tonight isn’t an outlier either. At home this season, Archer is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA and 56 strikeouts in just 40 innings. He’s allowed just 9 walks at home compared to 18 walks on the road. Against the current White Sox in his career, Archer has allowed just a .235 average and has struck out 12 in 68 ABs. The Sox are 29th in wOBA against RH pitching this season with a .150 ISO and a 23% strike out rate.

Martin Maldonado – C – Los Angeles Angels – $2,700

Analysis: Assuming Maldonado is in the lineup tonight, he’s my punt catcher against Detroit lefty Daniel Norris, who gives up a .352 wOBA and a 41% hard contact rate to RH bats this season. Meanwhile, Maldonado has crushed lefties so far, sporting a .476 wOBA with a .182 ISO and a 40% hard contact rate. Detroit’s ballpark is big and favors pitching, but I am not worried here at this price for Maldy.

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June 6 by

MLB Value Index – June 2

After a hiatus Thursday due to an inept amount of games on either early or late slates, the Value Index is back and ready to help guide you through another hefty slate. Tonight’s 14-game affair is jam packed with pitching options plus some offenses in great spot. There is no Coors thankfully, but even the […]

June 2 by

MLB Value Index – May 31

It’s a Wednesday split slate in the majors today, but for today’s Index we are going to skip the 4-game early slate and tackle the night slate. Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom are on tonight’s slate, so we need to find bats to pair with them. I am not feeling very chatty (good you most […]

May 31 by

MLB Value Index – May 30

How in the world are we going to fit in Coors AND Chris Sale tonight?

For the sake of today’s Value Index, I will not be recommending Coors bats or Chris Sale because you know that already. I imagine there are a lot of ways you can get in Sale, Coors bats and feel comfortable with your lineup. There are plenty of low-priced pitchers (some devoid of talent) that you could make it work. I know I  will be trying to get in Nelson Cruz against a lefty in Coors. That’s very salivating for me.

Anyway, my picks today do center around rostering Sale, and for the record, you can play them all in a lineup and pay min salary for a catcher just so you know that I am not just recommending obvious plays and so you know I am actively thinking about how you will roster players tonight.

Sale is up against his old team, so not only is he been downright filthy this year, the narrative only adds to the excitement.

We are back to our regularly scheduled format for the Index. It’s Tuesday and that means you must subscribe to our site to receive all premium content, but as usual, a few picks are available. I hope they are just the tease you need to take the next step!

Time for picks!

Gio Gonzalez – SP – Washington Nationals – $8,200

Analysis: So if you have followed me for awhile, you know my disdain for Gio Gonzalez over the years. I can’t say this pick doesn’t make me want to throw up in my mouth a little bit. It’s Gio. He walks a ton of batters, he’s on the road, blah, blah, blah. Now for the positives for Gio – 1. PItcher’s ballpark. 2. Bad Giants lineup that has a lot of lefties. 3. Giants are 27th in wOBA against lefties this season and sport a measly .283 wOBA and .104 ISO. They don’t strike out THAT much, but a 19% K/9 rate is decent. Gio has given up some HRs to righties this season, but he has been great against lefties, posting a .267  wOBA, a 2.11 GB/FB rate and 23% hard contact. Belt, Crawford, Panik and Span are all potential lefties Gio could face tonight no to mention he likely won’t have to deal with Eduardo Nunez. I guess there’s a chance I could be scared off this pick once the lineup comes out, but I feel like Gio is actually pretty safe tonight and has an offense that can get him the win.

Jose Reyes – SS – New York Mets – $3,700

Analysis: Didi Gregorious was going to occupy this spot, but I found a cheaper SS I like more that is Mr. Reyes, my favorite shortstop of all time. Reyes has really started to hit the ball for the Mets over the past couple of weeks and currently has hits in 6 of his last 7. Tonight he faces Zach Davies who gets into trouble against lefty bats (meaning the Mets’ stack also is firmly in play). Davies has allowed a .359 wOBA, a 1.91 HR/9 rate and a 32% hard contact rate to lefties this season. Hopefully we will get a good lineup spot for Reyes.

Andrew McCutchen – OF – Pittsburgh Pirates – $3,200

Analysis: Do people think McCutchen is done and devoid of talent? His price certainly reflects that and I am going to keep playing him because he’s won me a lot of money over the past week. McCutchen and the PIrates are taking on Robbie Ray (chalk pitcher tonight) so I am going to leverage off of Ray and take some Bucs against him to hopefully make some big bucks (yes, I do cheesy jokes, too). I am coming around on Ray as a pitcher personally, but he still gives up way too much hard contact to right-handed bats (43.2% with a .243 BABIP). The PIrates have been able to at least hit the baseball in recent weeks, but they aren’t a team that has shown they can put up gobs of runs night in and night out. McCutchen has always been a lefty masher and he’s doing it again this season, collecting a .479 wOBA, a .405 ISO and a 41% hard contact rate. The stars are aligning in this one.

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May 30 by

MLB Value Index – Memorial Day (Early Only)

It’s Memorial Day and while this day signifies the remembrance and recognition of all the men and women who have either served the United States or lost their life in doing so, it also means day baseball is upon us. We have two slates going today, with most games featured on the early slate. Pitching […]

May 29 by

MLB Value Index – May 26

Tonight we have the first series rematch since this happened…. I can’t wait to see if the fireworks carry over into this year or if bygones will be bygones. I am all for another closely contested, heated battle that leads to fisticuffs again. More on Rougned Odor later, by the way. It’s a 14-game slate […]

May 26 by

MLB Value Index – May 25

It’s payday! Well, at least for me in regard to my full-time job as a teacher. Hopefully, for you, it’s DFS payday and you have the Value Index to thank later on. Today is a really ugly split slate of games. We have 5 early games with some weather to keep an ey eon and […]

May 25 by

MLB Value Index – May 24

When you are close to a big win, it’s comforting to know you are going to have a good night, but in my mind, I can’t help but play the “what if” game sometimes.

“What if” Jordan Montgomery hangs on and gets the win last night?

“What if” Carlos Gonzalez gets one more AB?

“What if” Daniel Robertson doesn’t save a run in the bottom of ninth to win the game for the Indians and E5 gets one more AB?

“What if” I had played Player C instead of Player E?

That was me last night after a sweat.  It’s fun, all of it, even if you don’t take home the jackpot, the idea of it happening or possibility of it happening, makes DFS so fun.

I hope those of you reading this have been able to sweat it out in a DFS tournament. I hope that sweat paid off, but if you didn’t take home the top prize, I hope you had fun trying to get there.

That’s what I feel can make you successful in DFS – having fun. If you aren’t having fun, then you might need to take a step back and take a break. No sense in lighting money on fire or watching it swirl around the drain, figuratively speaking.

I had to learn to get back to the fun of it all myself, and since I changed my mindset/outlook, I couldn’t be happier with the results. Even if I have an off night, I brush it off and move on to the next slate. That helps, not only keep the fun factor, but keeping my recency biases in check.

Anyway, I didn’t come away with a life-changing win last night, but I got to feel the sweat, and it was great. Overall, a great Tuesday night of DFS for this guy and I hope something in this narrative helps you arrive at a different mindset if you are struggling. I think it’s important to hear from others who have success after they have had a run of bad luck. You will get there, too, DFS BABIP doesn’t stick around for ever and positive regression is looming.

Now on to tonight, shall we?

It’s a 10-game affair in the majors with yet again a couple of games we have to monitor due to the weather. We have Chris Sale on the mound tonight against my Rangers. He gets the Kershaw effect in the Index – he is the top play on the board, so he’s an unofficial official pick for me, but you don’t need me to tell you to play him.

What you might need are some bats/value pitching options to play to be able to squeeze Sale into your lineups, so that’s what we are doing for today’s Index.

Let’s get to it!

Carlos Gonzalez – OF – Colorado Rockies – $4,500

Analysis: Carlos Gonzalez is finally starting to hit the ball in recent days. It’s taken awhile for me to come around on CarGo, but perhaps we are going to see a long heater from him. He’s got a hit in 10 of his last 11 games and tonight faces Jeremy Hellickson who is making his next start despite having some back issues last time out. Hellickson has been extremely lucky against lefties this season (.252 wOBA, .149 BABIP) despite a 31% hard contact rate and a 1.17 HR/9 rate so far. The Rockies are the first NL team to 30 wins, so they are really good. They also got Trevor Story back, so this lineup is jacked. CarGo should see plenty of good pitches considering there’s no safety in this lineup in a hitter’s park.

Josh Bell – 1B – Pittsburgh Pirates – $3,900

Analysis: I finally have come to grips that SunTrust Field is not going to be Julio Teheran’s best friend. The old adage was play lefties against Teheran, and now that strategy is even more enhanced by this new ballpark that is designed for power lefty bats. Against lefties this season, Teheran has a .399 wOBA, a 1.86 HR/9 rate and is allowing 40% hard contact. As for Josh Bell’s spot in this puzzle, he mashes RH pitching this season – .360 wOBA and a .225 ISO.

George Springer – OF – Houston Astros – $4,200

Analysis: People are bagging on George Springer last night for his lack of offense against “Pig Shit,” a new nickname a buddy of mine gave Jordan Zimmermann. So I feel this is a perfect time to hop on because recency bias. But I say, whatever, Springer is going to be up and down. When he’s up, he’s way up and tonight he faces a lefty in the lead-off spot. Springer has been putting up fantasy points despite striking out multiple times in four straight. Springer goes up against lefty Daniel Norris who is going to be giving up more home runs than his 0.54 HR/9 rate against RH bats this season. Why is that? Because he gives up 46.4% hard contact to RH bats and has a 1.40 GB/FB rate, so he’s not an elite ground ball guy. There’s a short porch in right that swallows long fly balls and Springer can hit lefties – .341 wOBA, a .282 ISO and a 45% hard contact rate this season – oh and he’s only $4,200.

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May 24 by

MLB Value Index – May 23

Well it looks like we have a few more games tonight that have some weather concerns.

Things turned out OK for playing baseball on Monday, but we didn’t get clarity on a few of them until closer to lock.

It appears that could be the case with games on tonight’s 15-game slate.

Outside of the weather, the rest of tonight’s contests offer some intriguing ways to build your lineups.

Of course, we have Beast Mode Clayton Kershaw on the mound, but then we have this lower tier of pitchers that are extremely cheap, a few of which I don’t think are crazy to consider tonight. Outside of Kershaw, the pitchers on today’s slate are relatively cheap (McCullers is the other stud I would consider) and you can almost do whatever you want with Kershaw in your lineup.

As usual, I will not be recommending Kershaw as an official pick. He’s a no-brainer every night, especially in cash games.

Anyway, it’s time to get down to business, so here are the guys I like tonight.

Lance McCullers – SP – Houston Astros – $10,200

Analysis: When it comes to pitching, I have a few rules for DFS play. One of those rules is play Lance McCullers at home. The Astros are coming off a combined 1-hitter of the Tigers on Monday and that includes a 4.1 IP, 8 K performance by Brad Peacock of all pitchers. Now that the bullpen got a lot of usage, the Astros, the first team to 30 wins, will need a nice, long comfortable performance by the phenom. At home this season, McCullers has a 2.08 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 26 innings pitched. The Tigers are going to throw out 6-7 RH bats in this one and McCullers has dominated righties so far this season. RH bats against him only have a .271 wOBA, a .180 batting average, a 27% hard contact rate and a 3.23 GB/FB rate. Needless to say, it’s difficult to hit this guy. The Tigers are a formidable opponent, but I think McCullers is getting a discount here due to his matchup, a team that strikes out 22 percent of the time.

Dustin Pedroia – 2B – Boston Red Sox – $3,900

Analysis:  I don’t know when it is going to happen, but it is going to happen. What am I talking about with that statement? Andrew Cashner’s regression. Since being inserted into the rotation, Cashner has avoided disaster and helped peg some wins for the Rangers and has not allowed more than 3 ER in any start. But he hasn’t faced a team with upside (outside of Houston) like the Red Sox. Sure, the power has been absent from the Boston lineup, but they still have quite a bit of talent up and down the lineup. One of those guys still producing is Dustin Pedroia, who has a 12 hits in his last 10 games, including 7 in his last four with three multi-hit efforts. Cashner has allowed a .335 wOBA and a 30% hard contact rate to RH bats since 2016. The Green Monster favors the RH hitting and Pedroia has the pop left to send one over.

Michael Conforto – OF – New York Mets – $4,800

Analysis: I love targeting bats against Jhoulys Chacin. It has worked out quite nicely so far this season and I will be going back to the well tonight as the Mets take on the Padres. Conforto has been on fire lately, recording 10 hits in his last 8 games, including 4 doubles and 2 home runs in that span. Conforto has crushed RH pitching this season, earning a .433 wOBa, a .318 ISO and a 44% hard contact rate to go along with 8 home runs. In the lead off spot against Chacin’s .338 wOBA and 34% hard contact rate allowed to lefties since 2016.

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May 23 by

MLB Value Index – May 22

Happy Monday everyone!

This is an especially great Monday for myself because it’s the last Monday of the school year, and by this time next week, I’ll be listening to Alice Cooper on repeat.

That is a humble brag, so if you have to work over the summer, I am sorry, but not sorry!

Anyway, we have a 9-game slate in the majors. There aren’t any major studs on the mount tonight though Zack Greinke has really shined this year. He’s probably a cash game lock for me for sure, and maybe a lock and load overall. But more on him later…

Anyway, today is a premium version of the Index, so you will get a couple of picks for free, but the rest you will need to subscribe. 

And before we get to the picks, it looks like there’s a lot of games that could be affected by weather, and since I am not a meteorologist (but you should be following Kevin Roth on Twitter) I won’t be providing recommendations from those games and will focus on the good weather contests.

Games potentially impacted by weather (as of Sunday night) – Yankees at Royals, Rockies at Phillies, Pirates at Braves, Giants at Cubs and Twins at Orioles (though I think this one carries the least risk according to early forecasts).

So that leaves four games for me to make selections (and would likely change if I could write this in the morning on Monday), but this is what we will stick with – White Sox at Diamondbacks, Indians at Reds, Angels at Rays and Tigers at Astros.

Zack Cozart – SS – Cincinnati Reds – $4,400

Analysis: Tonight is going to be a Reds’ stacking kind of night and if you subscribe to the Index, you will get to see the other two Reds’ fellas I am targeting tonight. But first we start with Cozart, who is battling some a wrist injury and was supposed to get Sunday off and didn’t. Before you roster him, of course make sure he’s in the lineup. If he is, he’s a premier play at shortstop tonight against reverse-splits Josh Tomlin in the Great American Smallpark. Since 2016, RH bats have a .365 wOBA off of him along with a 2.01 HR/9 rate and a 32% hard contact rate. Cozart has a .422 wOBA, a .200+ ISO and a 30+ percent hard contact rate against RH pitching this season. He’s got the cherry on top, too – BvP.. Cozart is 7-for-11 with 2 doubles, 1 triple and a walk. All that’s missing from that BvP cycle is the home run.

Jason Kipnis – 2B – Cleveland Indians – $4,300

Analysis: Don’t look now but Kipnis is finally heating up. He’s got a 6-game hit streak and is now leading off for the Indians, who also are starting to put up runs. Cleveland gets the ballpark boost in Cincy and get to take on the Swan (unofficial Rangers’ nickname) Scott Feldman (you can’t see me, but I am rolling my eyes at the thought of him on the mound). Since 2016,  lefty hitters have a .355 wOBA against the Swan, but only a 23% hard contact rate. Feldman is a ground-ball inducing son-of-a-gun, but we don’t always need home runs for hitters to produce, though Feldman has a 1.24 HR/9 rate against lefties.

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May 22 by