Entries by Stephen Monahan

MLB – Value Index – Thursday, July 18

The weather really drowned the Los Angeles Dodgers stacks going ham for a third straight day. I couldn’t jump off them knowing that a delay was possible.

But we move along and focus on today’s 7-game slate and keep tabs on the last of the golf majors, which also kicked off early this morning. One of the best majors there is I tell you and I am glad it ends the leg of the four majors and not the PGA Championship.

Anyway, we only have 7 games, nothing in Coors, Boston, New York, Texas, etc. So let’s get to it!

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Tanner Roark – 6.15
2. Zach Davies – 5.67
3. Matt Harvey – 5.57
4. Julio Teheran – 5.53
5. Dakota Hudson – 5.16
6. Trevor Bauer – 5.04

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Mike Fiers – 5.89
2. Julio Teheran – 5.09
3. Matt Harvey – 4.99
4. Wade Miley – 4.70
5. Merrill Kelly – 4.59

Hitters wOBA vs. LH

1. Peter Alonso – New York Mets – .444
2. Jordan Luplow – Cleveland Indians – .439
3. Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels – .407
4. Jeff McNeil – New York Mets – .404
5. Carlos Santana – Cleveland Indians .380

Hitters wOBA vs. RH

1. Christian Yelich – Milwaukee Brewers – .490
2. Anthony Rendon – Washington Nationals – .407
3. Juan Soto – Washington Nationals – .401
4. George Springer – Houston Astros – .401
5. Alex Bregman – Houston Astros – .387

PITCHERS

Madison Bumgarner – vs. New York Mets – $9,000

Analysis: The Mets can be a scary team, but we get the benefit of the home ballpark for both Bumgarner and Thor (who I also like today). But Bumgarner comes in a little cheaper and has higher strikeout upside today against his opponent. The Mets are one of the best teams against lefties, but they strike out 22% of the time. Bumgarner has been elite against lefty bats, allowing only a .227 wOBA and striking them out 10.61 K/9. Against righties, he’s allowed a .336 wOBA (average numbers) and is striking out righties 8.93 K/9. I’ll take the heater the Giants are on and the home ballpark to get Maddy B a win and QS on FanDuel.

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July 18 by

MLB – Value Index – Wednesday, July 17

This intro is a quick one today!

We are concentrating on the Wednesday evening slate for July 17, so check out the xFIP and wOBA tables below, then the picks are right after that!

Enjoy and good luck!

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Trevor Richards – 6.17
2. Danny Duffy – 5.72
3. Spencer Turnbull – 5.70
4. Felix Pena – 5.16
5. Kenta Maeda – 5.13
6. Ivan Nova – 4.97
7. Nick Pivetta – 4.91
8. Aaron Brooks – 4.83
9. Aaron Sanchez – 4.70
10. Erick Fedde – 4.62

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Aaron Sanchez – 6.18
2. Erick Fedde – 6.02
3. Danny Duffy – 5.12
4. Aaron Brooks – 5.11
5. Trevor Richards – 4.85
6. Jesse Chavez – 4.57

Hitter wOBA vs. LH

1. Joey Gallo – Texas Rangers –  .467
2. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Toronto Blue Jays – .456
3. Jose Abreu – Chicago White Sox – .400
4. James McCann – Chicago White Sox – .398
5. Eric Sogard – Toronto Blue Jays – .372

Hitter wOBA vs. RH

1. Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels – .470
2. Cody Bellinger – Los Angeles Dodgers – .458
3. Rafael Devers – Boston Red Sox – .409
4. George Springer – Houston Astros – .405
5. Carlos Santana – Cleveland Indians – .403
6. Anthony Rendon – Washington Nationals – .402
7. Juan Soto – Washington Nationals – .398
8. Xander Bogaerts – Boston Red Sox – .395
9. Mookie Betts – Boston Red Sox – .391
10. Luke Voit – New York Yankees – .390

PITCHERS

Chris Paddack – at Miami Marlins – $8,900

Analysis: I will go against my rule tonight because I love Paddack and I hate the pitching options tonight. Paddack is facing the Marlins on the road in Miami, where the Marlins like to chip away at pitchers with their terribleness. The Marlins are bottom 5 in team wOBA and strike out 22% of the time. Paddack doesn’t strike out lefties a whole lot, but he whiffs righties at a 11.70 K/9, and the Marlins will have a ton of righties out there today. He could be in line for the win and a QS here, giving up a ton of upside at this price…and you can still stack the Dodgers.

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July 17 by

MLB – Value Index – Tuesday, July 16

Man what fireworks from the Dodgers last night! They paid off in a big way, as did the Red Sox, Indians, Tigers and Blue Jays, if you had them.

Rick Porcello??? Ehhhh…..

But we are back at it again tonight with a full slate of MLB action.

Before we get to the xFIP and wOBA tables…

PITCHING SUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCKKKKKKKKSSSSSSS

Here’s a list of guys pitching today, not including Rays and Astros because starters were not announced at the time I published this article:

Peter Lambert
Andrew Cashner
Zach Plesac
Daniel Mengden
Anthony deSclafani
Dylan Cease
Austin Voth
Vince Velasquez
Something called a Jacob Waguespack
Dario Agrazal
Steven Matz
Drew Pomeranz (in Coors)
Asher Wojciechowski
Glenn Sparkman
Alec Mills

You get the idea here…

So, lots of young arms here, and let’s get started.

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Austin Voth – 6.86
2. Dario Agrazal – 6.67
3. Glenn Sparkman – 6.35
4. Dylan Cease – 6.16
5. Daniel Mengden – 6.00
6. Logan Allen – 5.93
7. Bryse Wilson – 5.86
8. Alex Young – 5.86
9. Anthony deSclafani – 5.56
10. Zach Plesac – 5.43
11. Asher Wojciechowski – 5.41
12. Marco Gonzales – 5.20
13. Jack Flaherty – 5.14
14. Steven Matz – 5.01
15. Peter Lambert – 4.79

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Dylan Cease – 7.49
2. Marco Gonzales – 5.35
3. Dario Agrazal – 5.34
4. Andrew Cashner – 5.22
5. Zach Plesac – 5.15
6. Andrew Heaney – 5.14
7. Vince Velasquez – 5.12
8. CC Sabathia – 5.06
9. Jordan Yamamoto – 4.96
10. Glenn Sparkman – 4.92
11. Peter Lambert – 4.85

And here are the wOBA tables among QUALIFIED hitters versus lefties and righties.

Hitter wOBA vs. LH

1. Joey Gallo – Texas Rangers – .467
2. Yandy Diaz – Tampa Bay Rays – .409
3. Alex Bregman – Houston Astros – .391
4. Tommy Pham – Tampa Bay Rays – .387
5. Matt Chapman – Oakland A’s  .380
6. Khris Davis – Oakland A’s – .357
7. Guillermo Heredia – Tampa Bay Rays – .356
8. Michael Brantley – Houston Astros – .355
9. Marcus Semien – Oakland A’s – .353
10. Starlin Castro – Miami Marlins – .351

Hitter wOBA vs. RH

1. Christian Yelich – Milwaukee Brewers – .483
2. Cody Bellinger – Los Angeles Dodgers – .446
3. Josh Bell – Pittsburgh Pirates – .442
4. Daniel Vogelbach – Seattle Mariners – .413
5. Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves – .412
6. Rafael Devers – Red Sox – .409
7. Anthony Rendon – Washington Nationals – .402
8. Anthony Rizzo – Chicago Cubs – .402
9. Juan Soto – Washington Nationals – .398
10. Xander Bogaerts – Boston Red Sox – .391

PITCHERS

Drew Pomeranz – at Colorado Rockies – $5,500

Analysis: Yea this one seems crazy I know, but Pomeranz has been the victim of bad luck and the Rockies completely shit the bed in both games of Monday’s double-header. Outside of Arenado, Story and Desmond, the Rockies will throw a lot of lefties and bad righties out against Pom, who is min-priced tonight on FanDuel. Pom is striking out lefties this season at a 12.27 K/9 and righties at a 10.10 K/9. He’s tops in wOBA allowed on the entire slate against RH pitching, but should he give up a couple of runs, the strikouts and a 5 inning or 6 inning game will certainly give us the upside we need here. For what it’s worth, Pomeranz has chewed up this team already, but that wasn’t Coors. He also has held Arenado, Blackmon and Story in check for a combined 6-for-26 with 9 strikeouts.

HITTERS

Vlad Guerrero Jr. – 3B – Toronto Blue Jays – $3,000

Analysis: Andrew Cashner makes his debut for the Red Sox and people are going to pay up for his sorry ass against the Blue Jays. I won’t be, as you can tell by my tone. I will be rostering Blue Jays bats, especially righties with the Green Monster effect in play. Vlad Jr. is one of my favorite targets today at a steal of a price versus Cashner who has allowed a .342 wOBA with a 5.23 xFIP to righties. He’s also allowed a 40% hard hit rate and a 1.89 K/9. Vlad owns a .320 wOBA and a .170 ISO against righties, both which are not great, but he’s been BABIP’d a bit but does own a 40% hard hit rate against RH pitching.

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July 16 by

MLB – Value Index – Monday, July 15

What a weekend of baseball!

The Angels and their first home game in the wake of their fallen teammate, the Rays almost throwing the first-ever combined perfect game, Coors going nutso on Satuday and Sunday, there was some men’s tennis match, and then most importantly….

Homer Bailey and Andrew Cashner traded to the A’s and Red Sox, respectively. What a world.

We have 10 games tonight, one in Coors and some solid studs on the mound tonight. Actually, there are two Coors games today as part of a doubleheader, so we won’t really know who the second pitcher is for the Rockies until closer to lock as German Marquez toes the rubber in the early set.

Here’s the current xFIP tables for the pitchers on this slate (minus the Coors pitcher) followed by wOBA for qualified hitters vs. handedness on this slate.

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Dereck Rodriguez – 6.29
2. Rick Porcello – 6.07
3. Adam Plutko – 5.62
4. Daniel Norris – 5.60
5. Zach Eflin – 5.31
6. Adrian Houser – 5.19
7. Miles Mikolas – 5.06
8. Griffin Canning – 4.89

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Trent Thornton – 4.99
2. Jakob Junis – 4.83
3. Dereck Rodriguez – 4.63
4. Adam Plutko – 4.52
5. Joe Musgrove – 4.51
6. Griffin Canning – 4.44
7. Rick Porcello – 4.44
8. Daniel Norris – 4.43

Hitter wOBA vs. LH

1. Jordan Luplow – Cleveland Indians – .450
2. Roberto Perez – Cleveland Indians – .419
3. Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels – .411
4. Yandy Diaz – Tampa Bay Rays – .409
5. Carlos Santana – Cleveland Indians – .396
6. Christian Yelich – Milwaukee Brewers – .387
7. Tommy Pham – Tampa Bay Rays – .385
8. DJ LeMahieu – New York Yankees – .376
9. Yasmani Grandal – Milwaukee Brewers – .374
10. Mike Moustakas – Milwaukee Brewers – .372

Hitter wOBA vs. RH

1. Cody Bellinger – Los Angeles Dodgers – .446
2. Josh Bell – Pittsburgh Pirates – .425
3. Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves – .416
4. Rafael Devers – Boston Red Sox – .405
5. Anthony Rizzo – Chicago Cubs – .402
6. Yoan Moncada – Chicago White Sox – .393
7. Mookie Betts – Boston Red Sox – .392
8. Hunter Dozier – Kansas City Royals – .392
9. Alex Bregman – Houston Astros – .391
10. Derek Dietrich – Cincinnati Reds – .386

PITCHERS

Rick Porcello – vs. Toronto Blue Jays – $7,000

Analysis: I kind of feel like this price for Porcello is a joke. I know he hasn’t been the old Porcello, but he’s got one of the best matchups on the slate and we only have to worry about negative points from ER on FanDuel. He gets the Blue Jays, who have a very solid young crop of talent, but the team is still 26th in team wOBA and strikes out 24% of the time. Porcello does own a 6.07 xFIP and .353 wOBA against lefties, so it’s a good thing this Toronto lineup doesn’t have a ton of lefties to worry about. Porcello has been solid against RH bats, sporting a .310 wOBA with an 8.10 K/9 and 1.35 HR/9 while inducing ground balls at a 45% clip. If he can avoid being popped by Smoak, Tellez, Biggio and Galvis, Porcello should be able to handle his own here.

HITTERS

Joc Pederson – 1B – Los Angeles Dodgers – $2,600

Analysis: This price is absolutely ridiculous and laughable today. I know he hasn’t played in three days, but that was because the Dodgers faced a lefty in 3 straight games. But today he and the Dodgers are in an awesome spot against a pitcher that has been vastly overrated this season in Zach Eflin, who gets lit up against lefties. The Dodgers, of course, have a ton of power lefties and are one of the top offenses on this slate, starting with Pederson who owns a .374 wOBA with a .310 ISO against RH pitchers this season.

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July 15 by

MLB – Value Index – Friday, July 12

I kind of get used to being away from a computer during the All-Star Break. No fantasy, no writing committment, and can just chill.

It’s the same for my summer breaks away from my teaching job, you get used to not working.

But at least this other job, making fantasy recommendations, is fun. I get to write about sports and how can that not be fun?

Anyway, the All-Star Break is over and the home run derby wowed us all while Joey Gallo, the ASB MVP snub, gave the AL the lead and victory with a first-pitch bomb in his first All-Star Game.

Now we enter the back half of the baseball season, when the pennant race and trade deadline make MLB very entertaining.

And fantasy baseball makes it that much better!

Below are the xFIP and wOBA tables for today’s slate, which features a game in Coors, a game in Arlington, a game in Milwaukee, a game featuring two Grays facing off and a game featuring two Andersons facing off.

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Dinelson Lamet – 5.76
2. Danny Duffy – 5.69
3. Kenta Maeda – 5.13
4. Adam Wainwright – 5.03
5. Ivan Nova – 4.97
6. Dylan Bundy – 4.96
7. Mike Fiers – 4.85
8. Aaron Sanchez – 4.71

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Aaron Sanchez – 6.07
2. Mike Fiers – 5.99
3. Danny Duffy – 5.17
4. Mike Leake – 5.16
5. Jason Vargas – 5.11
6. Dallas Keuchel – 4.92
7. Chase Anderson – 4.72
8. Shaun Anderson – 4.70

Hitter wOBA vs. LH

1. Peter Alonso – .460
2. Cody Bellinger – .455
3. Paul Goldschmidt – .413
4. Jeff McNeil – .400
5. Max Muncy – .386
6. Chris Taylor – .378
7. Alex Verdugo – .377
8. David Freese – .374
9. Amed Rosario – .359
10. Paul DeJong – .356

Hitter wOBA vs. RH

1. Christian Yelich – .484
2. Mike Trout – .461
3. Daniel Vogelbach – .418
4. Freddie Freeman – .416
5. Rafael Devers – .405
6. Shin-Soo Choo – .404
7. Carlos Santana – .399
8. Jorge Polanco – .398
9. Anthony Rendon-  .396
10. Juan Soto – .394

PITCHERS

Chase Anderson – at San Francisco Giants – $6,500

Analysis: Pouring in the big boy bats will be easy to accomplish if you take Chase Anderson tonight, who is likely going to go 4 innings with 7 Ks and 0 ERs and then give up 6 ER in the 5th to ruin your day. But he’s cheap on FanDuel and always is capable of getting the win with his offense behind him. The Giants are striking out around 20% of the time to righties while Anderson is striking out lefties at an 8.05 K/9 and 10.13 K/9 to righties.

Yonny Chirinos – at Baltimore Orioles – $6,800

Analysis: Chirinos has started to show he can pitch deeper into ball games, making his upside at a cheap cost very attainable. Tonight he draws the lowly Orioles, who are 29th in team wOBA and strike out 24% of the time. Chirinos is allowing a .285 wOBA to righties and a .261 wOBA to lefties, striking them out at a 7.2 K/9 and righties at a 7.18 K/9. The Rays draw Dylan Bundy on the other side, giving Chirinos a W and QS upside tonight.

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July 12 by

MLB – Value Index – Friday, July 5

Hope everyone got their fill of fireworks, food and family on the 4th. Hopefully you caught some baseball, too.

The slates were odd on Thursday for FanDuel, they split the games up all over the place, thus no Index for the Fourth.

But we have one final slate to tackle this week and it’s a full 15 games. Below are the tables for xFIP and wOBA. Good luck!

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Zach Davies – 5.90
2. Jordan Zimmermann – 5.86
3. Antonio Senzatela – 5.78
4. Julio Teheran – 5.77
5. Brendan McKay – 5.66
6. Brett Anderson – 5.51
7. Eric Lauer – 5.46
8. Brad Keller – 5.42
9. Jordan Yamamoto – 5.28
10. Dylan Bundy – 5.27
11. Dakota Hudson – 5.19
12. Austin Voth – 4.90

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Aaron Sanchez – 6.01
2. Steven Brault – 5.88
3. Jordan Zimmermann – 5.22
3. Yusei Kikuchi – 5.22
5. Adrian Sampson – 5.19
6. Brett Anderson – 5.04
7. Jordan Yamamoto – 5.02
8. Vince Velasquez – 5.00
9. Julio Teheran – 4.97
10. Brad Keller – 4.77

Hitter wOBA vs. LH

1. J.D. Martinez – .498
2. Joey Gallo – .464
3. Cody Bellinger – .460
4. DJ LeMahieu – .400
5. Xander Bogaerts – .399
6. Max Muncy – .395
7. Christian Yelich – .390
8. Mike Moustakas – .389
9. Chris Taylor – .387
10. Eric Sogard – .386

Hitter wOBA vs. RH

1. Mike Trout – .450
2. Josh Bell – .433
3. Freddie Freeman – .411
4. Hunter Dozier – .406
5. Anthony Rendon – .405
6. Jorge Polanco – .402
7. Juan Soto – .400
8. Carlos Santana – .399
9. Derek Dietrich – .396
10. Anthony Rizzo – .395

PITCHERS

Martin Perez – vs. Texas Rangers – $6,900

Analysis: I actually really love the mid-range for pitching today on FanDuel. As you can see in the freebie version, we’ve got two pitchers, and a third sits behind the small paywall you would have to subscribe to, just saying. Anyway, we have some revenge on tap for today as former Ranger Martin Perez takes on his former team, at home, a pitcher’s park. The Rangers are dead last in team wOBA against LH pitching and are striking out at an alarming 29% clip. Perez has upped his strikeout game in 2019, sporting a 9.00 K/9 against lefties and an 8.11 K/9 against righties. Perez is super cheap for the strikeout upside he provides today. Also, he should face a lot of lefties, which he’s held to a sparkling .276 wOBA and has yet to allow a HR to one at all.

Drew Pomeranz – vs. St. Louis Cardinals – $7,300

Analysis: The Cardinals can be a scary team against left-handed pitching, but St. Louis has been awful of late and Pomeranz is starting to get back to his old form. Against lefties, he has a 3.61 xFIP and holding bats to a .332 wOBA while striking them out at a wonderful 12.50 K/9. Against righties, Pom has been getting popped, allowing a .400 wOBA, but he also owns a 4.74 xFIP compares to his 6.55 ERA and .370 BABIP. Positive regression is coming and he draws a home start in one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league against a team that is 18th in wOBA against lefties. I like Perez better, but Pom will be a solid SP2 on two-pitcher sites.

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July 5 by

MLB – Value Index – Wednesday, July 3

If you watched any of the Rangers/Angels game last night, you could clearly see both teams did not have baseball on their minds.

It was all about Tyler Skaggs and his unexpected death.

There was no walk-up music, fans didn’t know when or if they should cheer, there were lots of errors, wild pitches, and lots of pitches thrown.

I imagine it would be difficult to do anything, even play a sport for fun, to the best of your ability after a sudden death of a loved one.

I also imagine that tonight and the next few weeks, or the rest of the season even, will be difficult for the Angels to regroup mentally, especially when they have to return home and play baseball in front of the home crowd.

Anyway, we have 14 games on today’s slate, with games in Arlington, Coors Field, Cincy and Toronto.

And we have lots of terrible pitching and lots of mispricing on both FanDuel and DraftKings, more on that later.

Below are the xFIP and wOBA tables for today’s slate.

As for the July 4th slate, games will kick off early, so be looking for a Value Index tonight for Independence Day.

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Jhoulys Chacin – 6.50
2. Bryse Wilson – 5.92
3. Danny Duffy – 5.61
4. Cal Quantrill – 5.56
5. Ariel Jurado – 5.49
6. Chris Archer – 5.12
7. Merrill Kelly – 5.06
8. Tanner Anderson – 5.05
9. Adam Wainwright – 5.03
10. Mike Fiers – 4.94
11. Nick Pivetta – 4.75

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Mike Fiers – 6.07
2. John Means – 5.57
3. Jason Vargas – 5.34
4. Mike Leake – 5.27
5. Ross Detweiler – 5.14
6. Danny Duffy – 4.93
7. Jhoulys Chacin – 4.83
8. Wade Miley – 4.70
9. Griffin Canning – 4.65
10. Peter Lambert – 4.63
11. Shaun Anderson – 4.61

Hitter wOBA vs. LH

1. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Toronto Blue Jays – .466
2. Jordan Luplow – Cleveland Indians – .458
3. Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies – .455
4. Ian Desmond – Colorado Rockies – .441
5. Roberto Perez – Cleveland Indians – .409
6. DJ LeMahieu – New York Yankees – .400
7. David Dahl – Colorado Rockies – .396
8. Eric Sogard – Toronto Blue Jays – .392
9. Tommy Pham – Tampa Bay Rays – .391
10. Charlie Blackmon – Colorado Rockies – .386

Hitter wOBA vs. RH

1. Christian Yelich – Milwaukee Brewers – .481
2. Cody Bellinger – Los Angeles Dodgers – .448
3. Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels – .442
4. Josh Bell – Pittsburgh Pirates – .428
5. Daniel Vogelbach – Seattle Mariners – .423
6. Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves – .418
7. Hunter Dozier – Kansas City Royals – .413
8. Jorge Polanco – Minnesota Twins – .404
9. Anthony Rizzo – Chicago Cubs – .401
10. Derek Dietrich – Cincinnati Reds – .399

PITCHERS

Yu Darvish – at Pittsburgh Pirates – $7,200

Analysis: Yu feels awfully cheap tonight, even if he is facing a Pirates team that is tops in team wOBA against RH pitching in the majors. I am not really buying into the Pirates overall, and Yu can still strike guys out, whiffing opponents from the left side at an 8.80 K/9 and opponents from the right side at an elite 12.04 clip. Now, the Pirates only whiff at a 17% strikeout rate, but Darvish gets a boost here considering he should see 4-5 righties in this lineup and he gets to pitch in a pitcher’s park. The downside for Darvish always are the walks, which can kill him. His price tag is so cheap that you have a solid chance at a QS, a win and can load up on bats on FanDuel.

HITTERS

Mookie Betts – OF – Boston Red Sox – $4,100

Analysis: What can I say? Mookie will just make the list every day if he is going to toe this $4K-$3K price tag every day. He paid off last night and draws some guy named Waguespack in Toronto. Betts and the Red Sox overall are much cheaper on DraftKings than on FanDuel. DK clearly screwed something up over there, more on some other mispricings there, too. As I say every time, Betts destroys RH pitching, sporting a .387 wOBA and .225 ISO. By the way, the Red Sox are third overall in team wOBA, so yea, they are in play against some rookie making his first start.

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July 3 by

MLB – Value Index – Tuesday, July 2

Well, I think we are all, or at least were all, in shock about the Tyler Skaggs news on Monday.

He was 27, recently married and a budding young pitcher, and he passed away earlier in the day.

It’s a sad story with some scary details soon to brought to light. I absolutely hate hearing stories like this. It makes you question your own mortality.

With that somber news, it definitely makes DFS and the things we do for fun take a back seat and reflect.

Now with all of that, we must shift focus to today’s slate. I will leave everyone off the Index in that Angels/Rangers game. I imagine emotions will be running high for Los Angeles in the next few games and their first home game since their tragedy. So, if you want to believe in narratives, that’s one you can possible tap into.

Anyway, so let’s take on this slate. Here’s the Pitcher xFIP and hitter wOBA tables for today.

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Reynaldo Lopez  – 6.75
2. Taylor Clarke – 6.51
3. Tyler Beede – 6.33
4. Daniel Mengden – 6.31
5. Tanner Roark – 5.99
6. Matt Strahm – 5.70
7. Dylan Bundy – 5.26
8. Trevor Bauer – 5.18
9. Jack Flaherty – 4.87
10. Chase Anderson – 4.61

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Dallas Keuchel – 6.13
2. Jason Vargas – 5.33
3. Trent Thornton – 5.08
4. Jakob Junis – 4.82
5. Daniel Mengden – 4.78
6. Reynaldo Lopez – 4.69
7. Tyler Beede – 4.68
8. Joe Musgrove – 4.64
9. Chase Anderson – 4.62

Hitter wOBA vs. LH

1. Pete Alonso – New York Mets – .474
2. Joey Gallo – Texas Rangers – .468
3. Jean Segura – Philadelphia Phillies – .431
4. Rhys Hoskins – Philadelphia Phillies – .428
5. Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels – .409
6. DJ LeMahieu – New York Yankees – .400
7. Eric Sogard – Toronto Blue Jays – .399
8. Jeff McNeil – New York Mets – .398
9. Jose Abreu – Chicago White Sox – .393
10. Bryce Harper – Philadelphia Phillies – .383

Hitter wOBA vs. RH

1. Christian Yelich – Milwaukee Brewers – .476
2. Cody Bellinger – Los Angeles Dodgers – .448
3. Daniel Vogelbach – Seattle Mariners – .423
4. Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves – .418
5. Hunter Dozier – Kansas City Royals – .415
6. Josh Bell – Pittsburgh Pirates – .412
7. Jorge Polanco – Minnesota Twins – .404
8. Anthony Rizzo – Chicago Cubs – .402
9. Carlos Santana – Cleveland Indians – .401
10. Derek Dietrich – Cincinnati Reds – .397
10. Shin-Soo Choo – Texas Rangers – .397

PITCHERS

Ross Stripling – vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – $6,500

Analysis: I know, he only went 3 innings in his first start, but in DFS, we have to hop on when things are cheap. Blake Snell over the weekend fell almost to under $8K on DraftKings and he went bonkers. Now, this isn’t Snell and we don’t know what kind of leash he will have in his second start, but we can project him to go longer than 3 innings, assuming he doesn’t get shelled. He gets a home start against the Diamondbacks, who are 16th in wOBA and strike out only 20% of the time, but enough to make Stripling viable at this price. He won’t be here for long.

HITTERS

Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – St. Louis Cardinals – $3,100

Analysis: I don’t know what is wrong with Goldy, but damn his price continues to be tempting. He’s normally a $4K+ player and now we are getting very close to dipping below $3K. He will hit in the 2-hole on the road against the Mariners’ opener and a long reliever or two. The Mariners have been throwing some lefties out there as long relievers, so hopefully we get that draw with this play.

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July 2 by

MLB – Value Index – Friday, June 28

Man, Jason Vargas is really annoying.

The old man continues to make himself look “good” and avoid the regression bug. Stacking against him is so frustrating. I’ll keep doing it because I am balls deep in stacking against him this year and I’d like that to pay off at some point.

But he won’t blow up against a team like the Yankees or in Coors, it will be a road game in Miami against the Marlins, a team like that.

Anyway, it’s Friday and we have 14 games on the slate today. Pitching is so-so, even at the top with Jacob deGrom, his matchup against Atlanta is less than desirable at that price tag.

But paying down for pitching hasn’t been a bad move in 2019 DFS baseball, and that’s where the Value Index comes into play. Below are the xFIP and wOBA tables for players on today’s slate. Remember, the wOBA table is for qualified at-bats ONLY. Enjoy and good luck!

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Odrisamer Despaigner – 8.34
2. Jhoulys Chacin – 6.47
3. Elieser Hernandez – 6.47
4. Danny Duffy – 5.99
5. Antonio Senzatela – 5.77
6. Daniel Norris – 5.69
7. Eric Lauer – 5.47
8. Chris Archer – 5.20
9. Mike Fiers – 5.10
10. Anibal Sanchez – 4.94
11. Michael Wacha – 4.85
12. Merrill Kelly – 4.78

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Odrisamer Despaigne – 6.43
2. Mike Fiers – 5.97
3. John Means – 5.53
4. Anibal Sanchez – 5.01
5. Danny Duffy – 4.95
6. Michael Wacha – 4.89
7. Vince Velasquez – 4.89
8. Jhoulys Chacin – 4.85
9. Shaun Anderson – 4.81
10. Wade Miley – 4.57

Top-10 wOBA vs. LH

.1. Jordan Luplow – Cleveland – .458
2. Ian Desmond – Colorado – .451
3. Brian Dozier – Washington – .447
4. Anthony Rendon – Washington – .440
5. Howie Kendrick – Washington – .439
6. Nolan Arenado – Colorado – .438
7. Roberto Perez – Cleveland – .427
8. Domino Santana – Seattle – .392
9. Juan Soto – Washington – .391
10. Victor Robles – Washington – .389

Top-10 wOBA vs. RH

1. Christian Yelich – Milwaukee – .484
2. Cody Bellinger – Los Angeles – .460
3. Mike Trout – Los Angeles – .455
4. Josh Bell – Pittsburgh – .421
5. Freddie Freeman – Atlanta – .419
6. Austin Meadows – Tampa Bay – .408
7. Anthony Rizzo – Chicago – .407
8. Jorge Polanco – Minnesota – .407
9. Willson Contreras – Chicago – .401
10. Jeff McNeil – New York – .393

PITCHERS

Vince Velasquez – at Miami Marlins – $7,300

Analysis: I can’t stay away from attacking the Marlins despite my hatred for doing so. Luckily, the soft-hitting, BABIP Marlins aren’t as dangerous for pitchers on FanDuel, so that’s why I am going to Vince Velasquez, who gets another shot at hanging around the Phillies rotation. VV has had some struggles this year, but he still has an elite strikeout rate to righties, which this Marlins lineup is full of. Versus RH bats, Velasquez owns an 11.93 K/9. And even though he’s allowing 52% hard contact and a 2.20 HR/9 to righties this season, the Marlins’ ballpark and their lineup that owns a .132 ISO and 21% K-rate.

HITTERS

Brian Dozier – 2B – Washington Nationals – $2,500

Analysis: The Nationals, Twins and Astros are the top offensive stacks for me today outside of Coors. As you see in the wOBA table above vs. lefties, the Nationals hold 5 out of the top-10 qualified spots. And one of the top guys vs. lefties is former lefty masher who has made a return to glory in 2019 – Brian Dozier, who owns that .447 wOBA with a .333 ISO against lefties. The Nationals are facing Daniel Norris in Detroit tonight, and he should see a RH-heavy lineup. Against righties, Norris owns a .338 wOBA with a 40% hard hit rate and a 1.49 HR/9. He hasn’t been bad, but the Nationals are hitting really well right now and so I think Norris is in a heap of trouble.

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June 28 by

MLB – Value Index – Wednesday, June 26 (Main)

First base is loaded on tonight’s main slate of Hump Day Action.

I can justify playing 5-6 guys from that position, but for the Index, I am picking the cheapest of the ones I like. You will see that shortly.

But if I could only play 1B, I would certainly do it.

So I could see myself pivoting off the guy I do like at 1B for a stack or to fill salary, but we will have to see how things shape up toward lock.

For now, below are the xFIP and wOBA tables I have been providing daily for the pitchers and hitters on this slate vs. handedness. Enjoy!

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Daniel Mengden – 6.68
2. Tanner Roark – 6.26
3. Adam Wainwright – 5.07
4. Yu Darvish – 4.58
5. Jason Vargas – 4.53
5. Nick Pivetta – 4.53

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Jamie Barria – 6.94
2. Dallas Keuchel – 6.10
3. Jason Vargas – 5.58
4. Wade LeBlanc – 5.50
5. Daniel Mengden – 5.29
6. Jake Odorizzi – 4.72

Top-1o wOBA vs. LH Pitching

1. Kris Bryant – .453
2. Rhys Hoskins – .430
3. Jean Segura – .428
4. Yasmani Grandal – .402
5. Christian Yelich – .396
6. Bryce Harper – .386
7. Mike Moustakas – .380
8. Josh Bell – .356
9. J.T. Realmuto – .349
10. Elvis Andrus – .346

Top-10 wOBA vs. RH Pitching

1. Mike Trout – .460
2. Daniel Vogelbach – .429
3. Freddie Freeman – .418
4. Anthony Rendon – .414
5. Jorge Polanco – .412
6. Derek Dietrich – .404
7. Austin Meadows – .404
8. Michael Conforto – .399
9. Alex Bregman – .397
10. Peter Alonso – .388

PITCHERS

Matthew Boyd – vs. Texas Rangers – $9,400

Analysis: Boyd is the 5th-highest priced pitching on FanDuel and he has the most upside. While his price doesn’t seem cheap, he certainly grades out to be one of the more valuable considering matchup. The Rangers can be a scary team, but not against left-handed pitching. Joey Bats is back and he can take people yard, but this lineup throws out a lot of lefties and Boyd is tough against lefties, holding them to a .305 wOBA with a 2.67 xFIP, an 11.30 K/9 and an elite groundball rate of 62%. Unless BABIP gets ahold of Boyd, he has the best matchup outside of his pricier starting counterpart Mike Minor. The Rangers strike out at a 27.5% clip against lefties AND they 28th in wOBA and have a lowly .155 ISO. And they are without Hunter Pence, one of their best bats against lefties. The following lefties could be in the Rangers lineup – Gallo, Choo, Mazara, Guzman, Calhoun and Odor. Against righties, Boyd owns a .291 wOBA with an 11.20 K/9. Boyd’s strikeout upside is massive tonight.

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June 26 by

MLB – Value Index – Tuesday, June 25

Today’s 15-game slate is massive, and filled with all kinds of combinations of pitchers and stacks that makes it tough to sift through, but also fun, like a mega puzzle.

We have some really bad pitchers against left-handed hitters that you will see in the tables below and then I have added the top-10 wOBA vs. handedness for qualified hitters vs. today’s starting pitchers.

Good luck to you all!

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Jimmy Yacabonis – 6.94
2. Zach Davies – 6.13
3. Glenn Sparkman – 5.95
4. Trevor Richards – 5.84
5. Jordan Zimmermann – 5.84
6. Jake Arrieta – 5.82
7. Logan Allen – 5.62
8. Chris Bassitt – 5.26
9. Marco Gonzales – 5.17
10. Tyler Mahle – 5.14
11. Trevor Williams – 5.10
12. Carson Fulmer – 5.01
13. Jack Flaherty – 4.97

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Carson Fulmer – 7.15
2. Andrew Heaney – 6.07
3. Clayton Richard – 5.97
4. Jimmy Yacanonis – 5.65
5. Marco Gonzales – 5.40
6. Jordan Zimmermann – 5.17
7. Glenn Sparkman – 4.74
8. Jesse Chavez – 4.65
9. Walker Lockett – 4.59

Top-10 wOBA vs. LH

1. Cody Bellinger – Los Angeles Dodgers – .475 – vs. Robbie Ray
2. Kris Bryant – Chicago Cubs – .463 – vs. Max Fried
3. Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies – .456 – vs. Madison Bumgarner
4. Ian Desmond – Colorado Rockies – .450 – vs. Madison Bumgarner
5. C.J. Cron – Minnesota Twins – .446 – vs. Blake Snell
6. Christian Yelich – Milwaukee Brewers – .408 – vs. Marco Gonzales
7. Max Muncy – Los Angeles Dodgers – .403 – vs. Robbie Ray
8. Trey Mancini – Baltimore Orioles- .403 – vs. Logan Allen
9. Jose Abreu – Chicago White Sox – .396 – vs. David Price
10. Hanser Alberto – Baltimore Orioles – .396 – vs. Logan Allen

Top-10 wOBA vs. RH

1. Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels – .464 – vs. Tyler Mahle
2. Josh Bell – Pittsburgh Pirates – .432 – vs. Gerrit Cole
3. Daniel Vogelbach – Seattle Mariners – .427 – vs. Zach Davies
4. Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves – .423 – vs. Adbert Alzolay
5. Anthony Rendon – Washington Nationals – .411 – vs. Trevor Richards
6. Austin Meadows – Tampa Bay Rays – .409 – vs. Kyle Gibson
7. Michael Conforto – New York Mets – .407 – vs. Jake Arrieta
8. Shin-Soo Choo – Texas Rangers – .404 – vs. Jordan Zimmermann
9. Carlos Santana – Cleveland Indians – .400 – vs. Glenn Sparkman
10. Peter Alonso – New York Mets – .393 – vs. Jake Arrieta

PITCHERS

Jesse Chavez – at Detroit Tigers – $5,500

Analysis: Jesse Chavez enters the Rangers’ rotation as the fifth starter now that the Drew Smyly project is over, which is sad for us DFS players. Chavez is usually a guy I like to pick on, but he’s stone minimum today in a slate where you can get away with paying down at pitcher and stacking offenses, which has become a normal theme for the 2019 season. Chavez draws the Detroit Tigers in a ballpark boost for pitchers and Chavez has been solid in relief this year. Against lefties, he’s striking them out at a 9.68 K/9 and righties at a 7.16 K/9. He’s allowing a .269 wOBA to lefties and is getting ground balls at a 50% clip. Against righties, he’s allowing a .349 wOBA with 33% hard contact and also inducing ground balls at a 49% clip. He’s not been great, but he’s favorable tonight against the Tigers, who are 30th in wOBA against righties with a .161 ISO and 25% strikeout rate. For the minimum and for not getting tagged for baserunners on FanDuel, Chavez is a great punt play.

HITTERS

Manny Machado – 3B – San Diego Padres – $3,800

Analysis: The $300 million dollar club will get a chance to pay off for me and any of you who choose to use these guys today in their respective matchups. But it’s hard to ignore Manny Machado today. He’s been white hot of late AND he gets to be a road bat back in a return to his stomping grounds for the first time since leaving. That’s right Manny Machado returns to Baltimore today. And he and the Padres draw a wonderful matchup against opener Jimmy Yacabonis and projected long-relieving lefty Josh Rogers, who has allowed a .485 wOBA with an 8.81 xFIP, a 51.6% hard contact rate, a 5.40 HR/9 and a 58% fly ball rate…all with a .192 BABIP. You see Yacabonis is one of the worst xFIP pitchers from the starters’ table above. So yea, the Padres are one of my favorite stacks of the day. For the record, Machado doesn’t qualify for the wOBA table above, but if he did, he would be No. 1 against lefties with a .534 wOBA and .500 ISO.

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June 25 by

MLB – Value Index – Monday, June 24

We are in the last week of June and the All-Star Break is a mere 3 weeks or so away. The baseball season is quickly going by and before we know it, preseason football will be starting (can’t wait, by the way).

But right now we have perfect 7-game slate to start this last full week of June.

I am adding a table to today’s slate, and whether I can sneak it in from here on out remains to be seen, but I will try.

We’ve had the worst pitcher xFIP table for each slate, so now I will add the top-10 wOBAs for all qualified hitters on the slate. We have 7 games tonight, so all of the wOBAs you will see below will come from players who qualify for wOBA from those 7 games.

I’ll be honest, there are some surprising names on these two hitter lists, a few I have clearly ignored against certain types of hitters, and some I still can’t really trust what the numbers say (here’s looking at you Eric Sogard vs. lefties).

Anyway, check out the tables below. I hope they are of some help to you tonight.

Pitcher xFIP vs. LH

1. Julio Teheran – 5.68
2. Adam Plutko – 5.64
3. Brad Keller – 5.49
4. Zach Eflin – 5.04
5. Steven Matz – 4.97
6. Aaron Sanchez – 4.81

Pitcher xFIP vs. RH

1. Aaron Sanchez – 5.91
2. CC Sabathia – 5.32
3. Drew Pomeranz – 4.90
4. Brad Keller – 4.67
5. Julio Teheran – 4.62
6. Adam Plutko – 4.44

Top-10 wOBA vs. LH

1. Eduardo Escobar – Arizona Diamondbacks – .469
2. Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies – .452
3. Ian Desmond – Colorado Rockies – .450
4. Rhys Hoskins – Philadelphia Phillies – .425
5. Ronald Acuna, Jr. – Atlanta Braves – .416
6. Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves – .415
7. Jean Segura – Philadelphia Phillies – .412
8. Ketel Marte – Arizona Diamondbacks – .404
8. Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. – Toronto Blue Jays – .404
9. Ozzie Albies – Atlanta Braves – .403
10. Eric Sogard – Toronto Blue Jays – .396

Top-10 wOBA vs. RH

1. Cody Bellinger – Los Angeles Dodgers – .453
2. Anthony Rizzo – Chicago Cubs – .410
3. Carlos Santana – Cleveland Indians – .403
4. Willson Contreras – Chicago Cubs – .396
5. Michael Conforto – New York Mets – .396
6. Gary Sanchez – New York Yankees – .395
7. Joc Pederson – Los Angeles Dodgers – .395
8. Mookie Betts – Boston Red Sox – .391
9. Peter Alonso – New York Mets – .386
10. Luke Voit – New York Yankees – .386

PITCHERS

Jon Gray – at San Francisco Giants – $8,500

Analysis: If I go down at pitcher today, it definitely will stop at Jon Gray tonight. He’s as far down as I feel comfortable against one of the worst offenses in the best pitcher environment on the slate. Facing the Giants in their home park, Gray gets some upside with quality start and win opportunities available to him on FanDuel as the Giants will toss out noodle arm Drew Pomeranz. The Giants are 26th in team wOBA against RH pitching and own a .172 ISO, which will somewhat be neutralized in their home park. They strike out at just a 20.6% clip, but that’s still manageable for Gray, who whiffs lefties at a 8.71 K/9 and righties at a 10.47 K/9.

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June 24 by