We shall not speak of politics in this space, so forget what today is regarding that realm of the world and focus on tonight’s 9-game NBA slate. This is the first week of the NBA version of the Value Index, I hope you have found it helpful for you and you stick with it the […]
Welcome to a special Thursday edition of the NBA Value Index. We are doing some extra basketball stuff today as a thanks to you for being loyal readers/subscribers. We also will be publishing an NBA Expert Consensus today, which should publish around 4 p.m. central time, plenty of time before lock. This has to be […]
Welcome back to our second edition of the NBA Value Index. We made our NBA debut for Tuesday’s short, 5-game slate, and the Index’s start wasn’t too shabby at all. Normally, this write up will be considered premium content, but this week is a trial run through Friday. After that, the Index will have just […]
Now that our football coverage is complete, we can dive all-in on the rest of the basketball season. For myself, I will provide you with my own personal set of picks for every weekday slate except Thursdays. If you read the NFL version of the Value Index, you know I got to a point where […]
Well, we’ve finally arrived at the NFL Value Index’s end date. The final installment of this season-long player picks series comes to fruition with the NFL playoffs – Divisional Round.
This week’s slate sets up to be one hell of a weekend for playoff football. Three out of the four games look to be close with the outcome up in the air. I don’t want to say you can throw out the Pats/Texans game completely, this is the playoffs after all and Houston will at least try its hardest, especially since no one gives them a chance to win (16-point underdogs).
The marquee matchup looks to be Green Bay and Dallas, the final game of the slate and the Divisional round on Sunday afternoon. My picks center around that game, and no not just because i am a Cowboys’ fan.
Before we get to the picks, thanks to everyone who decided to click on this write up each week either the free version or the premium version. I appreciate you taking the time to choose me as someone you use as a reference. Please continue to check out future installments with my byline and you are always welcome to generate a conversation with me on Twitter @hotdog_phingers.
Now, without further adieu, my final DFS football selections of the NFL season. Good luck everyone!
Quarterback
Dak Prescott – Cowboys – vs. Green Bay Packers – $6,000
Analysis: I am surprised Dak isn’t higher priced this week, but he’s a major value play this week with his counterpart priced into the $8K range and some big, bad running backs and receivers to choose from. During its 7-game winning streak, the Packers’ secondary has faced the likes of Matt Barkley, Sam Bradford, Carson Wentz, Matthew Stafford, Russel Wilson, Eli Manning and Brock Osweiler. Outside of a career-low performance by Russel Wilson (5 INT game), the Packers defense has been getting torched by opposing QBs, even in blowouts. In those 7 games, QBs have 2,086 yards and 11 TDs. QBs have thrown 11 picks, too, but 8 of those came in two games against Wilson and Barkley. Prescott has averaged close to 20 DK fantasy points per game this season and looks primed to reach value once again in a potential shootout at a cheap price.
We are entering one of the two best weeks of the NFL season – the first round of the playoffs, or Wild Card Weekend. This week and the next we get two games each on Saturdays and Sundays, and there will be a couple of games in the next two weeks that will be riveting […]
Well, this is the end of the road, as Boyz II Men would say….the last week of the NFL regular season. Thank you to all who have listened each week and to Brad and Matt for contributing when able. I’ve enjoyed doing the podcast and hopefully you did too. I hope we can provide more […]
It’s the final week of the regular season, and while that is heartbreaking for many of us, it does segue into an awesome time for the NFL and that is the playoffs.
The first two weeks of the playoffs are my favorite points in the season. You get two games on Saturday and two games on Sunday for the next two weeks. After that, the road to the Super Bowl can feel a little slow.
But back to Week 17, where players will rest for the postseason, teams will take the day off though suit up and play a game, and some teams actually have something to play for.
We had a ton of injuries in Week 16, which is likely going to force you to have to wait for roster construction until Sunday morning (I know I will be waiting). Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota broke bones in their legs, RG3 suffered a concussion, Bryce Petty landed on IR at quarterback. T.J. Yeldon, Thomas Rawls, Spencer Ware, Ryan Mathews, Kenneth Farrow, Chris Ivory, Rob Kelley, Carlos Hyde, Matt Forte, Lamar Miller, Theo Riddick, Jay Ajayi and Melvin Gordon are all either on IR, headed to IR or questionable for Sunday. It’s a mess at the running back position. Wide receivers and tight ends have some injury news to monitor, but not a lot.
What we also have to worry about are the teams that are either going to sit their starters all game or play them, but limit their snaps and/or series. We always think about this in fantasy regarding the players we are rostering on our teams, but we also have to think about these kinds of moves for starters on the defensive side, which would boost opposing offenses.
Here’s the teams that have something to play for this week: Washington, New England, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, Oakland and Seattle. The Steelers, Giants, Cowboys, Texans and Dolphins do not.
I find it hard to believe the playoff teams that have nothing to play for this week will play their starters a whole game with nothing on the line. This is a week where teams also might experiment with younger players to evaluate their rosters for the offseason. It can be challenging to find the right plays, but if we get news early of what to expect as far as starts and sits, then it will make it easier to narrow down our selections. There are a lot of great plays out there, but we may not know the news we need until later this weekend, for example, Pittsburgh. I want to rush and play DeAngelo Williams everywhere, but could see a situation where Fitzgerald Toussaint splits carries or even starts in hopes of preserving a quality backup should Le’Veon get hurt in the postseason.
I honestly don’t feel comfortable making a lot of picks this week, but I tried to narrow down some of my favorites that are playing in meaningful games or situations.
Matthew Stafford – QB – Lions – vs. Green Bay Packers – $6,000
Analysis: Outside of Aaron Rodgers, I am not playing another quarterback this week outside of Matthew Stafford. This is the most meaningful game of the entire slate as the winner wins the NFC North and the loser could potentially be out of the playoffs (and they will know this info before the game kicks off since Washington will have played earlier in the day). Stafford hasn’t thrown a TD pass in two games, and he is facing a team at home (where he has a 11-3 TD:INT ratio) that has allowed 30 touchdown passes to quarterbacks this season. I know Atlanta and New Orleans has a ridiculously high 56-point O/U projection, but I will have exposure to that game in other ways. This is a very, very similar situation for me when Drew Brees went to Arizona a few weeks ago coming off two 0 TD, 3 INT performances. Positive regression is going to side with Stafford and the Lions are indoors, at home with the division and the playoffs on the line. Sam Bradford just carved up this Packers’ secondary….Sam Bradford.
Three French hens, two turtle doves, and a partridge in a pear… Oh, sorry, it’s that time of the year I suppose… I have this thing that happens to me where I get songs stuck in my head, and they play on repeat over and over again. Usually, if I go listen to the song, […]
We are three weeks away from the conclusion of the NFL regular season, but first Week 15 stands in the way. It’s an odd week with some extreme cold weather games and a few with potential snow fall. QBs, TEs and D/ST seem to be the weakest positions of the slate, based on expert picks […]
Heading into Week 14, Drew Brees was coming off a 3-interception performance at home against the Lions. So naturally he got what looked like a solid road matchup against Tampa in Week 14, and many of you were thinking “surely, he doesn’t go scoreless two weeks in a row.” You also probably thought “there’s no way […]
Thanks for tuning in again to our NFL Expert Consensus podcast for Week 14. This is an odd week in the NFL, lots of divisional games and many games with some weather concerns. Our Consensus list definitely shows that correlation as picks are all over the place and our list is relatively short. We hope you […]