Hello everyone! Thank you again for joining us at DailyOverlay for another edition of the Expert Consensus podcast. It’s Week 7 in the NFL and there are a lot of games with shootout potential. There also are lots of injuries that could and will affect ownership levels this week. For this week’s edition of the […]
Let’s play a quick one-question round of football Jeopardy.
Answer: Jay Ajayi, Cody Kessler, Kendall Wright, Ty Montgomery, Torrey Smith, Case Keenum and Golden Tate.
What’s the question?
Who are the spare NFL players that unexpectedly went off in Week 6?
To me, Week 6 was a very weird week, thought a profitable one for yours truly (I mean, I can buy a couple Cinnamon Dolce lattes at Starbucks, but hey, winning is winning, right?).
Running back had so many great plays, as I highlighted last week, and as you obviously recognized, and many didn’t disappoint. Week 5 was all about wide receivers for me and that thought process didn’t disappoint.
But here we are, Week 7 and somehow nearing the halfway point of the season (you can’t see me, but my eyes are swelling with tears).
So how does this slate look to the ol’ hotdog?
A mixed bag.
I see many games with possible shootout potential and on paper, this looks like it SHOULD be a high-scoring week. By high-scoring, I wouldn’t put 270-280 out of reach for a big tournament win.
Again, that’s what it looks like on paper. We might be saying that barely cracking 100 allows you to cash in tournaments.
Either way, I hope to provide you some solid “value” plays this week in hopes of you scoring big. Again, you can purchase this entire write-up as part of our premium content. For those that have already, hope you are enjoying the content.
Remember, value is not just cheap pricing, but those who should meet or exceed their price points by at least 3 times for cash games and 4 or more for tournaments.
On to Week 7 where there is tons of value at QB, lots of great matchups for receivers in the high-dollar price range and lots of games that could turn into shootouts.
Andy Dalton – QB – Bengals – vs. Cleveland Browns – $6,000
Analysis; I would’ve bet money on Mariota having a ton of ownership last week facing the Browns, but Cam, Brady and Brees took a lot of that at the upper tier for QBs. With a lot of value at QB this week, I expect ownership to be very spread out. Dalton hasn’t been lighting up the stat sheets this season, having thrown more than 1 TD just once this season. He does only have two picks through 6 games for a 6:2 ratio. He has thrown for more than 300 yards twice and has a rushing touchdown. In every game this season, Dalton has chucked the rock at least 30 times. With the Bengals’ questionable running game, I feel this could be a break out game for the Red Rifle. He’s facing the Browns who have greased QB confidence this season with four straight games of allowing 3 TD passes. In all 6 games, the Browns have allowed at least 2 TDs through the air and at least 300 yards in three of those contests. Load up the Red Rifle in any format.
Week 6 is on our heels and our Daily Overlay NFL Expert Consensus podcast is ready for your enjoyment. Myself and Matt Butler break down this week’s Industry Expert Consensus in hopes of providing you some extra help on your way to making your DFS lineups for this week’s NFL action. Last week, some of the Consensus […]
I have rewritten this intro this week at least four times.
I have not liked what has spewed from my fingertips, so instead let’s talk about the Dallas Cowboys (where my allegiance lies0 for a moment.
They are doing something pretty great, aren’t they?
No Tony Romo.
No Dez Bryant (for part of the time).
Yet, they destroyed a healthy Bengals defense thanks to the power running game led by the O-Line and rookie running back Zeke Elliott. He definitely helped you win some cash in DFS this week if you used him. Not only was he underowned, but he was the top running back of the Sunday slate, if I am not mistaken.
Three straight 100-yard performances heading into the team’s toughest matchup yet – Green Bay.
But where am I going with this?
Dak Prescott vs. Tony Romo.
I have been a Romosexual since he took the Cowboys to the playoffs in 2006 (damn that fumble!). Since then, he’s been to just 5 playoff games and has the moniker that he can’t win in big situations or win when it counts. I don’t know the exact number because I am being lazy, but he’s one of the top quarterbacks in the league in 4th quarter comebacks. Again, being lazy here, but i believe it’s more than Brady.
Regardless, he’s been elite, but just hasn’t had the luck needed to win a game here and there to get to the Super Bowl.
So last season, Romo breaks bones in his shoulder twice, and the Cowboys season was torched. But heading into the 2016 draft, the Cowboys hadn’t addressed their backup QB situation. Surely, they would take a high-end QB with their first pick? Or a defensive back?
No. They took Elliott. I wasn’t on board at first, BUT after some convincing, I came around on it and so far it’s paid off.
In the third round, the Cowboys did select a quarterback — Dak Prescott.
Short for Dakota, Dak was the reason Mississippi State was one of the top SEC programs while he was QB. Experts called him a raw talent with high upside.
Then two plays into the 2016 preseason, someone stepped on a crack and broke Romo’s back. In steps Dak who found a knack for avoiding the sack, and now his gig as the starting QB remains intact. Yes, I just rhymed a lot, it’s fun. You should try it sometime.
Anyway, in the preseason, Dak looked great, but I was speculative of the vanilla defensive schemes he was seeing. I wanted to wait until he got a few games under his belt before making any kind of opinion.
Well, I wanted to wait a few games, but instead I was loving this guy by the end of Week 2. Now the Cowboys are 4-1 with a huge game in Green Bay.
I told some friends last week that if the Cowboys beat the Bengals, Dak should remain the starter when Romo returns.
Now after the win, the narrative in Dallas is all about a “QB controversy.” I think it’s legit, and I believe Romo should not get his job back.
As a defender of Romo, it pains me to say that. Really, it does. I love watching him play the game. He has fun out there and makes things happen (and yes, throws the occasional boneheaded INT). But he’s a great dude, who loves the game and plays his heart out.
I would hate for the Cowboys to deprive him of that and I don’t want to say we’ve seen the last of Romo as the starter in Dallas. I would equate not seeing Romo play as to Brett Favre retiring, I would miss watching him play.
But Dak should stay the QB. The hand is hot and Dak is not mistake prone. I don’t think the Cowboys should fix something that isn’t broke. But you know who is broke? Romo. He can’t stay healthy, and that is a problem.
Romo would be a great backup to have either if Dak gets hurt or the momentum starts to turn. I am not saying Dak should be the starter the rest of the season no matter what, but he should for as long as the team is successful.
If that means Romo doesn’t take another snap this season, then so be it. Romo needs to be the safety valve for this team in case the wheels come off the Dak train.
And as Forrest Gump would say, “that’s all I have to say about that.”
Ok, sorry, that’s what you get when you can’t think of how to lead into your daily fantasy plays. No, Dak is not on this list this week, as are no other Cowboys.
Remember, this is premium content, so for a minimal fee, you can access the rest of my picks by clicking the link below. I hope you hop aboard soon! The Value Index has done quite well this season in our Expert Grading. #humblebrag.
Pick time and good luck in Week 6.
Oh, one more thing. I love running backs this week. That is all.
Tyrod Taylor – QB – Bills – vs. San Francisco 49ers – $5,300
Analysis: TyGod anyone? The Bills, like the Titans, don’t have a ton of weapons on offense, so it’s up to TyGod, like Mariota, to use his legs at times. McCoy, Clay and Robert Woods are about all this offense has, so usage isn’t a question. It’s more about whose lack of talent overcomes the other. This week I like the Bills (as does everyone else) to put up points against the 49ers who are traveling to the East Coast (never a good thing for West Coast teams). Outside of a stellar Week 1 performance against LA, the Niners also have allowed 2 TD passes to opposing quarterbacks, including 6 TDs in two road games. I think TyGod goes underowned more than he should this week, but I think he’s playable in all formats.
Below is a downloadable link to our Week 5 NFL Expert Consensus podcast. Matt Butler and I are back to discuss and break down our consensus list for the fifth week of the 2016 NFL season. Click the link below and enjoy! Good luck in Week 5! NFL Expert Consensus – Week 5
In my full-time career as a special education teacher, I work or have worked with students with learning disabilities or intellectual disabilities.
At times, it can be rewarding, and others mind-numbingly frustrating. Those frustrating days are ones where you want to throw your hands up in the air because it feels like everything you are doing to try and help a student having a meltdown or flying off the hinges just isn’t working. Your behavior management strategies can be set ablaze twice over, yet here’s this student or students who just can’t get it together.
You try not to take those bad days personally, because any precipitating factor outside of your classroom could’ve cause your student to come to school set up to unbuckle.
Not holding a grudge is the recency bias of being a teacher. You have to let it go and you can’t dwell on the past behavior(s).
You set yourself up to fail each day if you aren’t able to decompress, take a deep breath, and let it all go. You need to be able to walk through your classroom doorway at ease, and clear of thought each morning, so that you can focus on helping your students for that day (even the one that pushed you to the limits the day before). You hope that this focus leads to a successful day in which you can feel like you and your students had even the smallest of victories.
You might be able to tell where I am going with this. My job is a lot like (though not really) playing daily fantasy sports in the sense that you have to let the bad situations go.
So you rostered DeAndre Hopkins in Week 4….let it go.
If you rostered Cam Newton in Week 4…let it go.
If you didn’t roster Julio Jones in Week 4…let it go.
If you DID roster Julio Jones in Week 4…let it go (Falcons play the Broncos this week, yo).
If you didn’t roster Matt Ryan….well, no one really did…so with that let’s get to some picks. Just remember not to be FROZEN in time and let last week go (yes, I went there with that Disney reference).
Remember, value is about expected production in this series, not necessarily a 3x or 4x scale. If I felt Julio (and I did) would dominate his value, he would show up on this list (well, maybe next time).
Tom Brady – QB – Patriots – vs. Cleveland Browns – $7,500
Analysis: Last week, Le”Veon should’ve been on the Value Index. I let price get the best of me rather than expected output. Not gonna happen this week. Brady is back and he gets to face the chum of the NFL – Cleveland. I am actually glad this is a road game just in case the Browns decide to play up a bit in this game and keep it close early until Brady wastes them in the second half with TD pass after TD pass. Hell, it may not matter the score, I expect Brady to come out firing pass after pass, even if it’s 42-7 at halftime. The Pats are projected to score around 28 points, so Brady could account for 3/4 of those points or all this week against a Browns pass defense that has allowed at last 2 TD passes per game, including back-to-back 3 TD performances from QBs. This one is too easy (oh fudge, did I just jinx it?).
Hello again everyone! It is Week 4 in the NFL and we have two teams on byes – Green Bay and Philly. This week Matt steps away to allow Brad Richter to enter the fray. Texas and Wisconsin meet up for this week’s Expert Consensus Podcast! The link to listen to this week’s Expert Consensus […]
It’s Week 4 in the NFL, and after watching the Falcons/Saints trade blows on Monday night, I imagine that ownership this week will gear toward games involving those two teams.
So with that said, the injury bug wasn’t as brutal this week, though we can say sayonara to some notable players that will definitely affect how people play this week – Jeremy Langford
Potential injuries that could have a significant impact this week are Russell Wilson, Dez Bryant, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett, Sammy Watkins, Michael Floyd and Mohamed Sanu.
We also welcome the return of bell cow Pittsburgh RB Le’Veon Bell who sat out 3 games due to suspension, so will he get a full workload in his first week back or will DeAngelo Williams’ stellar play to open the season keep him relevant?
Last week wasn’t my best effort, but there were a lot of RB value to take advantage of, some paid off, some didn’t. Unfortunately this article comes out on Thursdays, so injury and or starting lineups may not be completely known by press time. Knowing injury and starting lineup news earlier certainly would’ve influenced me to pivot away from Jay Ajayi and replace with Christine Michael. I also would’ve been off Mariota without his No. 1 weapon Delanie Walker. I liked Charles Sims, too, so I can’t explain that one. Brain fart?
It’s the nature of the beast, so you too should keep injury/starter’s notes in mind when referencing my picks (or any others). I might not like a player Saturday night (when I make lineups) as much as I did Wednesday night (when I publish my final draft) because of injuries or starter announcements.
Green Bay and Philadelphia are on byes this week while Jacksonville takes on Indy in London, so only a 12-game slate this week.
Dak Prescott – QB – Cowboys – vs. San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings – $5,700
Analysis: I am not intentionally being homer this week with some of my picks. The Cowboys travel to the West Coast to take on the San Francisco 49ers who do seem to play tougher at home than on the road. Despite a 28-0 blowout against the Rams in Week 1, Dallas will be the first true offensive test for the 49ers at home this season. Chip Kelly’s offense runs a ton of plays, and quickly. The Cowboys aren’t too far behind in plays run. Dak has been a calm, reserved and patient quarterback in the pocket. The loss of OL La’El Collins might have some negative effects for the Cowboys’ offensive line, but it didn’t seem to hurt them against the Bears. Dak is still super cheap and has a high floor with his rushing ability.
It’s Week 3 in the young NFL season and Matt and I are back to discuss this week’s Expert Consensus. A miracle has been placed upon the DailyOverlay podcast team as we finally have a week without an audio issue in the broadcast. You still have to listen through the link below OR download and […]
Well, damn, that escalated quickly.
In my season-long leagues, especially PPR leagues, I avoided taking RBs early. I knew injuries would happen and I could snag a few guys off the waiver wire.
But I expected that to happen maybe Week 6 or later, not Week 3. If you play both season-long and daily formats like I do, you certainly have a myriad of cheap RB options to choose from.
But this article is for DFS, and there are a lot of choices to make regarding the running back position. Do you pay up to get the guaranteed totes or do you pay down and fill up your roster with WRs?
I don’t know the answer, but as a multi-lineup person, I am going to have exposure all kinds of options.
Honestly, I hate when this happens because it’s much more fun to have a feeling about what is going to happen with a player than to only know that now a timeshare is imminent and you just aren’t sure how that will play out.
Adrian Peterson, Ameer Abdullah, Arian Foster, Danny Woodhead, Doug Martin, and Jonathan Stewart are all out this week and longer. Peterson may be done in Minnesota completely while Woodhead is out for the year. Abdullah, Foster, Stewart and Martin all should see the field again in the coming weeks, but it makes for a mess at the position.
Josh McCown, Donte Moncrief and Corey Coleman (broke hand in practice Wednesday) are all out this week as well. Jamaal Charles is another question mark.
The questionable tag on player injury reports is misleading. After having done away with the “Probable” tag, players are either Questionable, Doubtful or Out. I am not used to it, so see that Q by player names still takes me aback a bit. But you have to check their status to make sure it’s nothing more than being limited at practice, etc.
With all of that, I hope to steer you in the right direction for your value plays. The Index is sitting in second place of our expert rankings this week, so I hope to keep the momentum going.
More picks than I’ve been providing the past two weeks, but there’s a lot of value to be had out there. I don’t typically care about ownership percentages when making selections, but I did try to make some pivots from those I think might see higher ownership this week.
Analysis: Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck are two of the top-priced quarterbacks, but in my opinion, are way underpriced, thus valuable. However, because they are two of the top-priced quarterbacks, they don’t exactly meet the criteria for the Value Index even though I think they are each a lock for 20+ points this week. So, enter Marcus Mariota….again. For the second week in a row, Mariota makes it on my list and he’s $100 cheaper than last week! I hope this isn’t a trap, but Mariota has yet to score 20+ DraftKings points this season, but this is the perfect situation to eclipse that mark as the Raiders have been the worst defensive team against the pass through 2 weeks. Drew Brees and the “resurgent?” Matt Ryan have combined for 819 yards and 7 TDs through the air. Add in Mariota’s ability to run and the ceiling is enormous in a home game where he should eat.
Welcome into the Week 2 edition of the NFL Expert Consensus Podcast. For the second week in a row, we had some technical difficulties with our audio, only this time we lost the audio Matt and I produced, so with him being out of pocket today, I re-recorded for your enjoyment. Hopefully, we can stabilize […]