Happy Tuesday everyone! Now that the monstrosity of April Fool’s Day is behind us, we can strictly focus on baseball without having to wonder if any breaking news we see come across our news and social media feeds is fake news. I saw a plethora of “breaking news” blurbs, tweets and images that were all […]
It’s no joke, it’s already April 2019. What is a joke? Draftkings pitcher pricing to start the season. Here’s a list of prices over the past four days for guys who had no business being price up. Friday Freddy Peralta – $9,100 Ross Stripling – $9,500 Saturday Kenta Maeda – $10,100 Brandon Woodruff – $7,900 […]
The last Opening Day of the artist formerly known as the Ballpark in Arlington has come and gone. And the Rangers got pounded, in what is now called Globe Life Park. The Rangers play their swan song in their 25-year-old stadium and will move across the parking lot into their new digs in 2020. It’s […]
The crack of the bat. The pop of the glove. The crunch of the dirt. The sounds of baseball. And when we use the word baseball, that must mean one thing. Opening Day has arrived. And the grind begins. The daily fantasy grind. 180 days. Baseball returns and we should all rejoice! That means so […]
Christmas was here and now it’s gone…a lot like the NFL regular season every year. Hope it was an awesome holiday season for you and your family.
Now to Week 17, where we revert to preseason strategies for GPPs and concentrate on motivations for cash games.
But we aren’t doing separate cash and GPP write ups for this last regular season week. Instead, we will focus on players that you can feel safe using in your lineups, for both formats.
Most of the players you find below all have motivations of some kinds, personal or team-related, and then some value plays that look to be safe bets for a full game in this last full NFL DFS slate.
There’s lots of injuries, coach speak and role changes this week, I won’t be touching most of those. If we don’t know as of this article, then the rest of the information will be up to me for myself and you. I suggest reading up on Evan Silva or listening to some late-week podcasts to keep your information in order.
But before we get to that, here’s some information about teams and their situations for this week, playoff and non-playoff bound. No scenarios, just who has something to play for and who doesn’t.
NFC playoff teams with nothing to play for…
New Orleans Saints
Dallas Cowboys
Seattle Seahawks
NFC teams in the playoffs with something to play for or teams still in the hunt…
Los Angeles Rams
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles
AFC playoff teams with nothing to play for…
None
AFC teams in the playoffs with something to play for or teams still in the hunt…
Kansas City Chiefs
Los Angeles Chargers
New England Patriots
Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans
NFC non-playoff teams with nothing to play for…
Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Giants
Carolina Panthers
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
Washington Redskins
AFC non-playoff teams with nothing to play for…
Oakland Raiders
Denver Broncos
New York Jets
Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills
QUARTERBACKS
Philip Rivers – Los Angeles Chargers – $6,400
Analysis: The Chargers need some help to snag the best possible playoff option, but they also have to win. A trip to Denver won’t be easy with divisional foe Broncos. However, this is a prime spot with a beat up Broncos’ secondary and an all-systems go Chargers offense who now has Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon back in action. Rivers has all the weapons he needs to face Denver, whose lone role is of spoiler.
Jared Goff – Los Angeles Rams – $6,200
Analysis: The Rams are trying to hang on to that No. 2 seed, but might be without Todd Gurley. Even with, Goff at home as been far more steady than on the road, averaging 28.6 FPPG in LA compared to 15.9 FPPG on the road. The 49ers have been a pass funnel defense all year and are allowing 214 yards passing and 2 TDs per game in their last four.
Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills – $6,000
Analysis: What, you think the Bills are going to bench Josh Allen?
Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens – $5,600
Analysis: The playoffs stand in the balance at the hands of Lamar Jackson, who take on the Cleveland Browns at home. It’s a battle of first round rookies – Baker and Lamar. A win and the Ravens are in. A loss and they are done. Having homefield won’t hurt. The Browns have been a little tougher defensively, but this is a different style quarterback, one that has shown the ability to throw, but thrives on rushing. Lamar is getting the attempts, and that’s why you are playing him. Any passing stats are just a bonus.
Kyle Allen – Carolina Panthers – $4,000
Analysis: Last week Taylor Heineke was on his way to smashing his $4,000 price tag, got hurt, then came back in with his arm hanging from his shoulder, and still paid off. Now we get a lesser QB in a game where the only motivation is Kyle Allen showing what he’s got to potential employers. The Falcons, their opponent, also do not have anything to play for. So basically Allen is a punt play who has a little rushing ability in his past.
I didn’t play cash games on DK last week. I did on FantasyDraft and Saquon shot me in the foot.
But as I said last week, I wasn’t sure I would play on DK because the slate was ugly. Overall, it was a bust of a week on all sites I played…except DRAFT and FanBall.
I really couldn’t concentrate on my lineup construction much because I was consumed by the semifinal round of the $5 Mini Best Ball tournament on DRAFT, of which I had one entry remaining in the tournament.
I was in third heading into Monday night’s game between the Saints and Panthers. I ran pure with dodging Rams and Eagles players catching me, and was for certain that Drew Brees could outscore my McCaffrey share despite me having a 15-point lead.
But CMC did his thing and the game went well under the total and I somehow managed to sneak into this week’s Week 16 final round, top prize gets $20K, minimum cash is $400. It’s pretty awesome to make it to the finals of big tournament like this, especially my first year playing Best Ball. Sure there was some luck involved, but I do feel season-long is still a strength for me and Best Ball fits those elements plus adds in a daily fantasy factor, too.
I have looked through the other final 59 teams I am competing against. And it’s not shocking to see most of the teams with the same players I do because those are the same players that got us all into the final round. Most of the entries have Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Amari Cooper, Zeke, Gurley and Barkley. Many have Robby Anderson, some DeAndre Hopkins (but not a lot), Matt Ryan and then lots have either Kelce, Kittle or Ertz, the three highest-scoring tight ends in the NFL this year. Lots still got through without James Conner playing and could get him back this week, though it’s not looking great for his availability.
I don’t think I can run pure this week. I have the chalk players in my lineup, though no one has the combination I do (Mahomes, Henry, McCaffrey, Cooper and Hopkins). So if they all go off on the same day one more time, then I do have a great shot at the top, and they all do have some pretty awesome matchups.
Josh Gordon is a guy a lot of teams have, too, and here we are, Week 16 and Gordon is off the Patriots’ team. So I think the only way my team can really reach for that top prize is having the players I listed go bonkers, but then having either or all of Corey Davis, Sony Michel and James White go bonkers, and those guys haven’t done jack for me lately. Vernon Davis is my lone tight end left now that Jordan Reed is out, and he may not even play either, leaving me empty against the likes of Kelce, Ertz, Ebron and Kittle. That’s going to be tough and I think the deciding factor this week, honestly. It’s no coincidence or surprise that teams with these four tight ends all made the finals. Tight end has been a very volatile position and having at least one of these four gentleman set you apart from the rest of the field this year.
So this is just part of my lineup, but unless Bortles and Tavon Austin both play, my lineup has a lot of similar players with the field I am up against, it’s just that no one has the Mahomes-Henry-Cooper-CMC-Hopkins combo on their team. They all have to go off and I need Michel and/or White, Vernon and Corey Davis to be bonuses. If even a couple fail here, I don’t think I am cashing even four figures.
We will see if my theory holds true! I hope to have an awesome screen shot next week.
Now as for Week 16. Good luck, but note that injuries and teams playing for nothing will definitely impact who gets full workloads this week and my list below could drastically change between now and Sunday. As I am typing this, Juju Smith-Schuster went down with a groin injury, meaning AB could be a screaming hot play or James Washington or Eli Rogers or Ryan Switzer become awesome values if Juju sits. Keep that in mind.
Good luck this week and look for the GPP Index to come out Friday evening (sorry, didn’t get around to one of these last week with other work-related commitments).
QUARTERBACKS
DeShaun Watson – Houston Texans – $6,600
Analysis: The Eagles have allowed the second-most passing yards per game over their last 4, giving up 310 yards and 1 touchdown per game on average. The Eagles’ secondary is beyond banged up and has been battered and deep fried all season long by wide receivers. Watson is my main high-priced target in a game I feel goes over the projected O/U this week. I LOVE this game for upside and value and we start off with Watson, more players to come in cash.
Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – $5,700
Analysis: I don’t think many people will play Dak this week in cash after that abysmal game against the Colts. But the Cowboys have known road struggles and get back to home cookin’ this week against the Bucs, who are allowing the 6th-most rushing yards to QBs in their last four. The Bucs have been a whipping post to offenses all season long and Dak returns to a stadium where he is averaging 7.5 more fantasy points per game, has 13 passing TDs compared to 4 on the road, only 3 INTs compared to 5 on the road and has averaged 262 yards passing per game compared to 214 on the road.
Nick Foles – Philadelphia Eagles – $4,700
Analysis: Yes Foles is back in our lives and led the Eagles to a victory over the high-powered Rams when no one expected it. Are we getting the 2017 Eagles back once again? God, I hope not, but for fantasy, we have to take them seriously as they are fighting for a playoff spot and division title this week when they host the Texans. Houston is 5th overall in fantasy points allowed to QBs in their last four, giving up 338 yards and 1.75 passing TDs per game in that stretch. Overall, the Eagles are underpriced at receiver in a dream passing draw for Philly.
Taylor Heinecke – Carolina Panthers – $4,000
Analysis: Cam Newton is a casualty to the injury report for Week 16. This gives us a min-salary QB with rushing ability in a premier spot with tons of motivation. Heinecke is unproven, yes, but his price and workload provide little risk and allows you to jam in players all over the board. The Falcons, Carolina’s opponent this week, is 8th in fantasy points allowed to QBs over their past four games, giving up 189 yards per game through the air, but allowing 1.75 passing TDs and 33 rushing yards per game in that span. Heinecke has the likes of speedy big-play gunners at wideout such as D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel and Jarius Wright. Then he also has Christian McCaffrey to dump off to comfortably in short passing lanes/windows. The Panthers have an outside shot to make the playoffs, but a win keeps them in, so the motivation for the team to rally behind their backup QB is there. Heinecke also has motivation to prove he’s capable to be an NFL Qb. A win and/or playing well starts that talk for him.
There’s going to be a lot of news as we near the weekend that could drastically impact this week’s main slate. As of the time of this article being published, we still don’t have any word on James Conner vs. New England. Ben Roethlisberger’s ribs are banged up. Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Jackson suffered ankle […]
Derrick. Henry. Four touchdowns on less than 15 carries and over 200 yards. Sitting on my bench in the fantasy playoffs…but there’s one silver lining, I have Henry in the quarterfinals of DRAFT’s Mini Best Ball Championship…and I am the only one who has him. Just gotta finish in the top three and move to […]
I wasn’t able to play much volume this past weekend, so I decided to stay away from cash. Now I am two weeks removed from playing cash games.
I should be able to take a crack at it Sunday as Week 14 rolls in with a ton of value and allowing flexibility and a variety of ways to play your cash games this week.
We have a team playing their first game after a coaching change, a sweet spot for one of the league’s top offenses and the marquee matchup of the main slate when the Baltimore Ravens, the NFL’s top-rated defense, travels to Kansas City to take on the top offense in the league. Can you pull the trigger on Patrick Mahomes this week?
Running back and wide receiver are loaded with juicy matchups this week and they are loaded with value. Lots to talk about this week, so let’s get to it!
QUARTERBACKS
Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints – $6,600
Analysis: Drew Brees came away with his worst fantasy performance of the season against Dallas last time out. Now with extra rest, Brees has one of the best matchups on the board as the Saints travel to Tampa Bay. The Bucs have been getting torched on the ground of late, but still have one of the worst past defenses in all of football. They are fourth in fantasy points allowed to QBs, surrendering 292 yards and 2.33 passing TDs per game. Brees is averaging 271.8 yards and 2.5 TDs per game coming off his worst performance of the year.
Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers – $6,000
Analysis: Overall, dollar for dollar, A-Rod is my favorite QB of the entire slate and likely my cash game QB unless I choose the next time to punt. Aaron Rodgers lost to the Cardinals on his birthday, but got a great gift with the firing of Mike McCarthy after the loss. The Packers seemingly look like they are washed for the playoffs, but they aren’t completely out. So we get at least one more week of full effort at home. The Packers welcome in the Falcons, who are second overall in fantasy points allowed to QBs this season. They give up an average of 273 yards and 2 touchdowns per game. Rodgers has some rushing ability and the Falcons are second in rushing yards allowed to QBs, too.
Mark Sanchez – Washington Redskins – $4,000
Analysis: Yes, butt fumble is a cash game play. Hear me out. He’s a price play, not a bet-on-talent play. The Redskins will likely want to run Adrian Peterson down the Giants’ throats, but the Giants’ offense isn’t inept, just their QB is and the Redskins have been getting drilled by RBs of late. I expect the Redskins to be playing from behind at some point, forcing Sanchez to throw. He can still scramble a bit for yards and can at least make plays at times. In cash, if you pair him with one of the two or both of the cheap RB values this week, you can play whoever the hell you want. That’s why he’s cash viable, a pure punt play to jam in studs in other positions.
The Chiefs cut Kareem Hunt, blowing the Week 13 slate wide open. Here’s the guys I like in tournaments this week. If you want to know who I like for cash games this week, please check out the Week 13 Cash Game Index.
This intro is short so that we can get down to business.
QUARTERBACKS
Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs – $7,600
Analysis: We haven’t seen a price like this for a QB all season long and before the Kareem Hunt news, it almost seemed like too much based on the blowout potential. But this is the Chiefs, Mahomes is battling for an MVP and now they are without their best skill position player. It might be up to Mahomes to shoulder the load. A Chiefs onslaught is certainly in order this week against the Raiders, who are allowing an average of 2 touchdown passes per game.
Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks – $6,300
Analysis: We know the Seattle Seahawks will want to establish the run game, but the weakness of the 49ers is in the passing game, where they are allowing the 10th most fantasy points per game to QBs, allowing 269 yards and 2 TDs per game. Russell Wilson late in the regular season is almost a sure thing and he’s really establishing efficiency with Tyler Lockett and David Moore.
Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers – $6,200
Analysis: I will be all in on Aaron Jones and benching Aaron Rodgers in my season long league because I love Aaron Jones so much. The Cardinals pass defense is solid and Patrick Peterson will do everything in his power to take out Davante Adams. I don’t think Rodgers will have to do much, but I will hedge my bets this week because of my love for Jones and benching of Rodgers.
Chase Daniel – Chicago Bears – $4,800
Analysis: We have another week without Mitch Trubisky, leaving veteran Chase Daniel to man Matt Nagy’s offense once again. Against a slow-paced Detroit team on Thanksgiving, Daniel threw 37 times for 230 yards and a couple of touchdowns for 19 DK fantasy points. This week his matchup is even better as he travels to New York to take on the Giants. The G-Men are allowing the yardage through the air, but are good at defending QB touchdown passes. Daniel has some ability to make things happen with his legs if need be and the Giants are third in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks.
Jeff Driskell – Cincinnati Bengals – $4,500
Analysis: While he has a perceived tough matchup, Driskell will have a full complement of weapons this week as the Bengals host the Denver Broncos with playoff implications on the line. A.J. Green returns and Driskell provides a safer floor with his ability to tuck it and run. I really think he could be a cash game play, but he’s not going to be needed with all of the recent value that has opened up the past couple of days.