This could be our final week for BvP for MVP as the NFL season approaches and our sights shift to the NFL. Stay turned for more on that. We may go up to Week 1 of the NFL season, but I haven’t heard anything official as of this post.
Tonight we have a full slate of games with some solid pitching options on the hill.
Make sure you visit dailybaseballdata.com for all of today’s BvP data. Pick time!
Matt Carpenter – 2B/3B – Cardinals – vs. Wily Peralta – DraftKings – $5,000 – Darling of the Night
| BB% vs. R | ISO vs. R | Hard% vs. R | BAA vs. R | wOBA vs. R | wRC+ vs. R | Carpenter BvP |
| 15.3 % | 0.299 | 48.2 % | 0.291 | 0.413 | 161 | 18-for-38, 5 2B, 3 HR, 4 BB |
Analysis: Don’t worry, Wily Peralta’s recent success is not a reflection of improving skill, but a reflection in some positive regression he was very well deserving of. Unfortunately, I don’t see him continuing that streak against one of the top teams against RH pitching, the St. Louis Cardinals. With this game at Miller Park and Carpenter’s complete dominance over RH pitching (and Peralta’s lack of ability to really get anyone out from either side of the plate), Matt makes a great cash game option in a hitter’s park.
Adrian Beltre – 3B – Rangers – vs. James Paxton – DraftKIngs – $4,700
| BB% vs. L | ISO vs. L | Hard% vs. L | BAA vs. L | wOBA vs. L | wRC+ vs. L | Beltre BvP |
| 11.5 % | 0.243 | 41.2 % | 0.322 | 0.403 | 152 | 4-for-7, 3 BB |
Analysis: If you were unaware of Beltre’s ability against southpaws, where have you been? His .403 wOBA against lefties is insane and tonight he gets the hard-throwing James Paxton in a hot and humid atmosphere of Arlington, Texas. The Rangers have been playing well of late and Beltre is one of those reasons. Some home cooking and a pitcher that struggles with his command on the road, have me all over Beltre and the RH bats of the Rangers.
Jose Reyes – 3B/SS – Mets – vs. Tom Koehler – DraftKings – $3,900
| BB% vs. R | ISO vs. R | Hard% vs. R | BAA vs. R | wOBA vs. R | wRC+ vs. R | Reyes BvP |
| 4.3 % | 0.124 | 27.4 % | 0.247 | 0.276 | 73 | 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 BB |
Analysis: Reyes’ numbers don’t accurately portray his usual success against RH bats. Reyes has been a top-of-the-order guy since going to the Mets. Jose gets Koehler who struggles on the road and against lefties. The Mets are a sneaky team tonight for me and could very well help you win a large tournament.
Steve Pearce – 1B/2B – Orioles – vs. J.A. Happ – DraftKings – $3,700
| BB% vs. L | ISO vs. L | Hard% vs. L | BAA vs. L | wOBA vs. L | wRC+ vs. L | Pearce BvP |
| 13.4 % | 0.31 | 42.6 % | 0.338 | 0.444 | 187 | 9-for-25, 2 2B, 4 HR, 3 BB |
Analysis: Pearce is battling an injury but was available to pinch hit Monday night. Keep an eye on his status. If he’s in, he’s been great against J.A. Happ in his career with a few bombs and extra-base hits. Pearce destroys lefties better than Beltre and I continue to want to pick on Happ.
Michael Saunders – OF – Blue Jays – vs. Ubaldo Jimenez – DraftKings – $4,400 – GPP Play of the Night
| BB% vs. R | ISO vs. R | Hard% vs. R | BAA vs. R | wOBA vs. R | wRC+ vs. R | Saunders BvP |
| 11.1 % | 0.208 | 38.5 % | 0.262 | 0.347 | 116 | 7-for-16, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 SB |
Analysis: I expect the Blue Jays to be popular tonight vs. Ubaldo, but I believe Saunders goes underowned most likely, especially with his $4,400 price tag on DK. Saunders has also taken Ubaldo deep 3 times in just 16 ABs and lefties are able to send balls flying at Camden, where Ubaldo has certainly struggled in for much of his career.
Max Scherzer – SP – Nationals – vs. Philadelphia Phillies – DraftKings – $13,600
| K/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERA | SIERA | Scherzer PvB |
| 11.23 | 1.24 | 0.244 | 2.92 | 3 | 26-for-139, 8 XBH, 2 HR, 42 Ks |
Analysis: Averaging more than 25 DK fantasy points against Philly this season, Scherzer needs no introduction. The only concern here is his extremely low BABIP coupled with my theory that the Phillies are scrappy and can ruin your DFS night when picking top aces against them. Scherzer is so solid though and has dominated much of their lineup so far, I don’t expect anything different.
Zack Greinke – SP – Diamondbacks – vs. San Francisco Giants – DraftKIngs – $8,300
| K/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERA | SIERA | Greinke BvP |
| 7.82 | 1.11 | 0.306 | 4.29 | 3.88 | 52-for-203, 9 2B, 5 HR, 41 Ks |
Analysis: Greinke has been much better on the road this season, and while his opponent doesn’t strikeout a ton, I like Greinke at his price, to go deep into this game. He does have an opposing pitcher in Johnny Cueto that could make the win difficult, but Greinke still has upside and is super cheap in my eyes. Go get ’em Zack!
