Welcome back everyone! I hope you had a fun and safe 4th and didn’t perform your best Jason Pierre-Paul impersonation If you did, well, best of luck getting better!
This is the last week before the MLB All-Star Break. I will likely mention again this week about how it’s the worst part of the year for sports, but I won’t today (wink).
So tonight’s picks have a bit of a theme – Southpaws. My picks are either lefty bats, RH bats vs. a lefty or a lefty pitcher. This wasn’t planned at all. It just kind of fell this way and I am OK with that because targeting RH bats with extreme lefty splits is one of my favorite things to do. Below we have some of the top LH crushers in the league.
Before you make your final decisions, check out all BvP data for tonight’s action at dailybaseballdata.com.
David Ortiz – 1B – Red Sox – vs. A.J. Griffin
BvP: 3-for-10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB
Analysis: FIrst man up needs no introduction. The ageless Big Papi has been wrecking shop, along with the rest of the Red Sox, all season long. A.J. Griffin has been a surprisingly nice piece for the Rangers this season. but I believe his 2.93 ERA is going to take a few bumps toward his 4.25 SIERA tonight as the Red Sox are heating up again, if that is such a thing with that team. The Red Sox are a better team at Fenway than on the road, and that goes the same for Papi, who sports a .379 batting average at home compared to his .290 road average. Griffin has an unsustainable .282 wOBA and .182 BAA vs. lefties. His 38.2% hard contact against lefties suggest that things are going to fall off the rocker soon. Don’t be afraid to roster Big Papi and stack the Red Sox tonight.
Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Marlins – vs. Steven Matz
BvP: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
Analysis: I will always roster Stanton vs. a lefty (that is of course if his BvP suggests otherwise). The sample size is very small, but Matz is battling an elbow issue and it showed in his last start. Stanton has come around from the ugliness he displayed the first couple of months of the season. I’d prefer this game be at home for Giancarlo, but I’ll take the matchup and the cheaper salary/upside. Despite that, he still owns a .349 wOBA vs. southpaws. Matz is allowing 1.16 HR/9 to RH bats this season. He’s been a great groundball pitcher and could hurl a gem tonight, but I am not convinced his arm is healthy.
Brian Dozier – 2B – Twins – vs. Sean Manaea
BvP: 1-for-2, 1 2B, 1 BB
Analysis: Another lefty on the mound for the Twins today. They made quick work of Cole Hamels over the weekend, so why not against a young and inexperienced Sean Manaea who is on the road? The Twins are quickly moving up the charts in offense vs. southpaws while Manaea has a ghastly 12+ road ERA this season. Right handers own a .375 wOBA, a .330 BAA, 38.6% hard contact AND 1.52 HR/9 against Manaea this season. The Twins are a sneaky GPP play, but Dozier is easily primed for success in both formats with his current hot streak and .477 wOBA against lefty pitchers.
Nelson Cruz – OF – Mariners – vs. Dallas Keuchel
BvP: 8-for-20, 1 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB
Analysis: This is going to be one of those situations where I like a bat versus his opposing pitcher, but I also love the starting pitcher. Nelly Cruz is the cream of the crop vs. lefties. even against an elite ground ball pitcher in Keuchel, Cruz has popped a couple of home runs against him in just 20 ABs. Minute Maid Park is a great venue for RH bats vs. lefty pitchers. There’s a short porch in left called the Crawford boxes that a mediocre line drive with some air can clear the fence. Keuchel has allowed a .353 wOBA to RHs this season along with a 1.35 HR/9, so there’s a solid chance Cruz could take him deep a third time.
Dallas Keuchel – SP – Astros – vs. Seattle Mariners
PvB: 45-for-175, 8 2B, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 12 BB, 45 Ks
Analysis: After I just got done tearing down Keuchel a little bit, now it’s time to build him back up. Keuchel has been very unlucky this season and at some point his luck is going to change. He does have a 5.13 ERA, but he has a much better SIERA: 3.84, so he’s pitching much better than his ERA suggests. He always has been better at Minute Maid Park than on the road. Luckily for us, his price is extremely cheap on DraftKings and on other sites. In two contests against the M’s this season, he’s averaged 15.2 FPPG while striking out a batter an inning. The win might be difficult to come by with Taijuan Walker on the mound, but he’s a great value play and is very cash game viable.
Madison Bumgarner – SP – Giants – vs. Colorado Rockies
PvB: 57-for-218, 10 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 23 RBI, 15 BB, 58 Ks
Analysis: In two starts against Colorado this season, Bumgarner is 1-0, allowing 3 ER while striking out 16 in 13 1/3 innings. Bumgarner has the added benefit of playing at home where he thrives (2.04 ERA) and is up against the Rockies who struggle away from home. They were just dominated by the likes of Jake Peavy yesterday and are worse against lefties anyway. I have no problem rostering Bumgarner everywhere today, cash and GPPs.
Lastly, here’s a recap from last week’s BvP lineups.
| Date | Contest Type | Entry Fee | Lineup Score | Winnings | Profit | Total Profit |
| 6/28/2016 | GPP | $1 | 119.3 | $0.00 | -$1.00 | $25 |
| 6/29/2016 | GPP | $1 | 185.25 | $15.00 | $14.00 | |
| 7/1/16 | GPP | $1 | 90.05 | $0.00 | -$1.00 |
We had a great day on Wednesday, which could have been better with the a switch of hitters here and there. The lineup finished in the top 35 in the $1 Solo Shot on DraftKings. It’s our biggest cash yet and puts our profit up to $25 for the year.
Analysis: Jose Reyes is supposed to be activated by the Mets today. I am going to take him at $2,900 if he is in the starting lineup. Bobby Wilson has wrecked David Price, but again, don’t know if he starts. The Blue Jays have the best matchup on the board against Chris Young’s .500+ wOBA vs. lefties, so Saunders and Carrera are in today. Lastly, that leaves Aaron Hill vs. Gio Gonzalez. Not crazy about it, but it’s a boom or bust play. Good luck!
Nice article, and great picks today, July 5, 2016. Wish I had used more than just Stanton and Cruz. Thank you much.
Thanks Good buddy! Appreciate the kind words and keep up the good work. Hope you are able to be profitable in baseball. Don’t be afraid to come back and tell me I suck either :). I can handle it. Good luck tonight and on future slates!