Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I hope you get your fill of turkey, ham, gravy, pie, whatever you favor on Turkey Day!
This is a busy time of the year for sports, with the big Thanksgiving Day NFL slate, big football games on Friday night and then the last full week of the college football regular season Saturday and then of course Week 12 in the NFL.
But yes, this is the last full week of college football regular season. While that is sad to think, at least there’s going to be a huge bowl season and a college football playoff to look forward to.
But let’s keep our sight focused on Saturday and hope to go out with a bang on the Power 5.
QUARTERBACKS
David Blough – Purdue – $8,500
Analysis: There are three games I love this week – Purdue/Indiana, Baylor/Texas Tech and Arizona-Arizona State. With that said, Khalil Tate is a fringe QB play for me this week. For just $100 cheaper, I can get David Blough in a game with a 64.5 total and a spread at -4, on the road against a defense allowing 30 points per game. Blough and the Boilermakers are averaging 32 points per game and 318 passing yards per game.
Manny Wilkins – Arizona State – $8,100
Analysis: The senior quarterback gets to face their bitter rivals on the road in his last regular season game. Wilkins has rushing ability and is coming off a bad effort against Oregon. I love Wilkins this week against Arizona, who is allowing 164 rushing yards per game and 31.8 points per game. But where the Wildcats have been getting smoked is through the air, surrendering 269 yards per game and Arizona State has one of the best receivers in the country…but more on that later.
Anthony Brown – Boston College – $7,100
Analysis: After being hospitalized with an internal injury a couple of games ago, Brown returned to the field last week against Florida State and nearly put up 300 yards passing. The matchup at home this week is far less imposing as the Golden Eagles host Syracuse, who could be without its primetime QB Eric Dungey. Honestly, I love Charlie Brewer and Peyton Ramsey so much and Charlie Brewer, that if I will make it to Brown. But if the salary fits, I certainly will be adding him where I can against ‘Cuse’s defense that allows almost 270 yards passing and nearly 30 points per game.
Peyton Ramsey – Indiana – $6,900
Analysis: Ramsey has a diverse amount of weaponry to pick apart Purdue’s swiss cheese pass defense that’s allowing 270 yards passing per game. His floor and ceiling are raised with his ability to scramble. He hasn’t scored more than 25 fantasy points in any game this season, but he’s scored less than 15 just once. At this price, he’s an acceptable play in a game with a 64.5 total and a four-point spread favoring Purdue.
Value Play: Charlie Brewer – Baylor – $6,600
Analysis: I likely WON’T have a lineup that includes Charlie Brewer this week against a reeling Texas Tech squad that will be looking to help its coach keep his job (which he won’t) and become bowl eligible. Texas Tech is surrendering 30 points per game and 286 yards through the air per game. Baylor is averaging 279 passing yards per game and hasn’t played a defense near as bad as Texas Tech’s in conference play. Brewer can run the ball, too, a trait Texas Tech cannot seem to stop every year of its existence in this Air Raid offense. Lock in Brewer.
RUNNING BACKS
Eno Benjamin – Arizona State – $8,500
Analysis: There are tons of RBs I love this week, but not many of them catch passes out of the backfield. I find it hard to justify Jonathan Taylor’s pricetag coming off 2 huge performances in his past three games and not catching passes, especially with the games I like on this early slate. Now, Eno Benjamin is a guy I can get behind because he can catch passes out of the backfield, despite him only snaring 3 catches in his past 4 games combined, he does have a 5 and 7-catch performance this season. Arizona is allowing 31 points and 164 yards rushing per game. Eno is averaging 27.7 fantasy points per game this season.
Karan Higdon – Michigan – $7,600
Analysis: If Michigan wants to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive, the way to attack Ohio State is on the ground. The Wolverines have turned the keys over to Higdon, who is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and 110 yards per game. He’s played in 10 games and has scored 10 touchdowns. Ohio State has allowed 161 yards rushing per game, Michigan is averaging 210 yards per game on the ground between Higdon, Chris Evans and QB Shea Patterson.
Miles Sanders – Penn State – $7,400
Analysis: Allowing 172 yards per game on the ground, Maryland is a premium spot for Penn State workhorse back Miles Sanders, who has had carries of 28 and 23 the past two games. He’s also caught 6 passes in that span and comes into this week’s matchup against Maryland as a 14-point favorite. Maryland is coming off a energy-draining overtime loss to Ohio State, which it had on the ropes until giving up the game-winning touchdown. I find it hard to believe for Maryland to get up for this game on the road in a difficult place to play. I love Sanders for volume with two-touchdown upside.
Stevie Scott – Indiana – $7,000
Analysis: Scott gets looks out of the backfield, but not many. He’s a bet-on-volume back in a game with a 64-point total. Purdue allows 166 yards rushing per game. Scott is averaging 5 yards per carry and 93 yards rushing per game and 18 fantasy points. He’s also averaging 7 more fantasy points at home than on the road. Indiana is at home this week.
Da’Leon Ward – Texas Tech – $5,800
Analysis: Welcome to my favorite running back play on the board. Yes, Ward’s output against Kansas State was atrocious, but so was eeryone else’s box score. That’s what you get with Jett Duffey back at QB. Well, we don’t know who the hell is going to be quarterbacking the best offensive team on this slate, but we do know that Ward is the No. 1 running back on this team now that he’s healthy. He gets 9-10 carries and a slew of targets out of the backfield. The best way to beat Baylor is through the use of running backs. The Bears are allowing 181 yards rushing and 31 points allowed per game this season.
Value Play: Treston Ebner – Baylor – $3,600
Analysis: If you need to fill a spot for value, look no further than Treston Ebner, potentially Baylor’s No. 2 running back this week with Jamycal Hasty not suiting up. With Hasty suiting up, Ebner has been getting some run of late with 10 catches in his past four games and 13 carries. Yes that doesn’t sound like a lot, but we are talking about this Baylor/Tech game that has a total of 65 and features a Tech defense allowing 159 yards rushing per game to running backs. It’s a complete dart throw, but I like the potential here with 6 catches in his past two games.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Rondale Moore – Purdue – $8,700
Analysis: The freshman stud receiver will look to show naysayers that he should be a Biletnikoff Finalist as a freshman. He gets Indiana to shred this week, who is allowing 30 points and 234 yards passing through the air. Purdue’s forte is in the passing game where they are averaging 318 yards per game. Moore had 4 carries against Wisconsin last week, a season-high. He’s also returning kicks and punts, so there’s plenty of ways for Moore’s dynamics to put the ball in the endzone.
Antoine Wesley – Texas Tech – $8,400
Analysis: Also spurned by the Biletnikoff Finalists’ list is Wesley, who has had 3 different quarterbacks, and could be 4th QB this week, throwing him passes this season. He hasn’t missed a beat with 84 catches for 1375 yards and 9 scores. He’s also averaging double the fantasy points at home than on the road, scoring 32 fantasy points at AT&T Stadium compared to 16 fantasy points per game away from the Jones. I don’t care who is throwing the ball, Wesley is the man.
N’Keal Harry – Arizona State – $7,900
Analysis: Harry is another stud receiver spurned by the Biletnikoff Finalist voters. See a theme here? Harry has 23 catches and 3-straight 100-yard games in his last three. He’s been without a touchdown in the last two games, so he’s due to add to his 9 TD catches this season. Arizona is allowing nearly 270 yards passing and 31 points per game this season. Zona and Zona State are tied for the highest projected game of the slate. Plenty of ways for this game to shootout and if it does, look for Harry to be a big reason why.
Jalen Hurd – Baylor – $7,100
Analysis: Favorite receiver play is this one – Jalen Hurd. I’ve discussed how bad Tech’s defense is against the pass, and that goes for wide receivers as well. He’s averaging 10 touches per game, including getting anywhere between 4-9 carries per game. He’s a converted running back who also has 3 rushing touchdowns this season as a receiver. You aren’t going to find another wide receiver on this slate, in a matchup like this, getting this kind of usage and touchdown opportunity. If there was a weakness, it’s that he hasn’t scored the TDs…well, that’s about to change this week.
Shun Brown – Arizona – $5,500
Analysis: Arizona has a lot of WR weapons to choose from, but I’ve settled on Shun Brown for this week, who has come on the past 5 games, receiving catch totals of 8, 1, 10, 5 and 8. He’s one of the cheaper receiving options on the team and has scored in 3 straight games. I won’t fault you for picking any of the Arizona pass catchers, but we have to play someone in a game with a 64.5 projected point total. Brown offers savings and allows you to pair with players from some of the other big-totaled games.
Luke Timian – Indiana – $5,100
Analysis: If I played cash games in college football DFS, Timian would be one of the first guys I plug in this week. He’s super consistent, but doesn’t have a high ceiling. In fact, he hasn’t scored a touchdown all season. Perhaps this is the week he gets out of the gutter against Purdue. Since Week 7, Timian has catches of 5, 6, 7, 4 and 6. In ALL of those games, he faced stout pass defenses – Iowa, Penn State, Minnesota, Maryland and Michigan. However, he’s still managed between 8 and 11 fantasy points. Now he gets an atrocious pass defense. He has his best chance at a score, especially with his teammates, coaches and quarterback knowing he’s scoreless this season.
Value Play: J-Shun Harris – Indiana – $3,700
Analysis: If I get this one right, I might be a J-Shun whisperer. He hasn’t been on my radar since Ohio State back in Week 6 when he was $3,300 and went off for 8-104-0. He too has had a ton of stout pass defenses since that OSU game. Now he brings his big play ability as a low-volume dart throw at a price tag that allows you to stuff your roster with studs.
