Here are a few things you need to know going into this week.
- The tournament will be played at the West Course of the Kuala Lumpur Golf & Country Club in Malaysia.
- Lineups will lock at 6:00 PM EST on WEDNESDAY.
- It’s a no cut event.
- The CIMB Classic began in 2010 and it’s been played five times, but only twice at its current location (only use the last two years in your course history data).
- Ryan Moore is the two-time defending champ, and Gary Woodland has finished runner-up both times.
Now, let’s get to it.
The West Course at the Kuala Lumpur Golf & Country Club is a 6,996-yard par 72. Not very long…
2014 CIMB Classic
1. Ryan Moore -17
T-2. Gary Woodland -14
T-2. Sergio Garcia -14
T-2. Kevin Na -14
T-5. Cameron Smith -12
T-5. Sang-Moon Bae -12
7. John Senden -11
T-8. Rory Sabbatini -10
T-8. Davis Love III -10
T-8. Prom Meesawat -10
T-8. Angelo Que -10
T-8. Billy Hurley III -10
Full Results
2013 CIMB Classic
1. Ryan Moore -14 (Winner in a Playoff)
2. Gary Woodland -14
T-3. Kiradech Aphibarnrat -13
T-3. Chris Stroud -13
5. Aaron Baddeley -12
6. Jimmy Walker -11
T-7. Charles Howell III -10
T-7. Harris English -10
T-7. Graham DeLaet -10
10. Keegan Bradley -9
Full Results
With only two years of course history to go off of, there will be a lot of filling in the blanks and guesswork when it comes to making selections this week. Roughly half of the field hasn’t played this event before. Although I was able to develop what I feel like is a strong statistical profile to guide me, I will also be using a fair bit of current form. Here’s what I’m looking for.
- Stroke Differential
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
- Driving Accuracy
- Ball Striking
- Birdie or Better %
- Eagle or Better %
- Par 3 Birdie or Better %
- Birdie or Better from 125-150 Yards %
- Birdie or Better from 175-200 Yards %
- Course History
- Current Form (Previous 12 Weeks of DK Points)
PICKS! PICKS! PICKS! PICKS! PICKS! PICKS! PICKS! PICKS! PICKS! PICKS!
I’ll be using last season’s stats for the wraparound portion of the 2015-16 schedule. The number in parentheses located to the right of each statistic is the golfer’s rank among qualified participants in the field.
The pricing on DK for this event is interesting. There are a lot of guys in the $10k range I’d like to target and not very many sub-$8k. I don’t have much interest in the local players, so cheaper options are limited. As a result, there’s going to be a lot of bunching up around a few names at the bottom. If you’re looking to set yourself apart, you’ll probably want to differentiate at the top rather than at the bottom.
My initial list of targets included 16 golfers, but I had to cut out some higher-priced options to get my average salary down to an acceptable range. If I only recommend high-dollar golfers, then I’m not really helping you at all. With that being said, I think Hideki Matsuyama ($10,900), Sergio Garcia ($10,700), and Branden Grace ($10,500) are fine plays. They just missed my cut. If you want to roster any of those guys, I absolutely could not fault you. I just like other golfers more when considering price.
One final note, I’d like to personally thank Brooks Koepka for not playing this week and not giving me the option to roster him. We needed a break, and I’m not sure if I could’ve resisted. So thank you, Brooks.
Henrik Stenson $12,100 (6.5-1)
I think Henrik wins this week. If you look just below, you’ll see why. The only question is can you fit in enough golfers you like around him? It’s a short field with no cut; you’re going to need lots of birdies and probably at least five of the top 10 finishers to win a GPP.
- Stroke Differential: 1st
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 1st
- Driving Accuracy: 4th
- Ball Striking: 1st
- Birdie or Better %: 4th
- Eagle or Better %: 10th
- Par 3 Birdie or Better %: 10th
- Birdie or Better from 125-150 Yards %: 19th
- Birdie or Better from 175-200 Yards %: 2nd
- Course History: N/A
- Current Form: 92.2 DK pts per over last 6 starts
Kevin Na $10,800 (14-1)
He’s finished in second place each of the last two weeks, and he also finished in second place at this event last year. His price is getting to the point where I feel a little uncomfortable using him, but he has the best mix of course history and current form in the field. He should be a cash game staple.
- Stroke Differential: 5th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 11th
- Driving Accuracy: 33rd
- Ball Striking: 60th
- Birdie or Better %: 14th
- Eagle or Better %: 32nd
- Par 3 Birdie or Better %: 4th
- Birdie or Better from 125-150 Yards %: 23rd
- Birdie or Better from 175-200 Yards %: 7th
- Course History: 121 DK pts in 1 start
- Current Form: 71.8 DK pts per over last 8 starts
Ryan Moore $9,900 (20-1)
He’s not in the best form, but he’s won both CIMB Classics held at this course. You’d be hard-pressed to find better course history than Moore has in Kuala Lumpur.
- Stroke Differential: 18th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 19th
- Driving Accuracy: 3rd
- Ball Striking: 40th
- Birdie or Better %: 18th
- Eagle or Better %: 47th
- Par 3 Birdie or Better %: 31st
- Birdie or Better from 125-150 Yards %: 31st
- Birdie or Better from 175-200 Yards %: 27th
- Course History: 123.8 DK pts per in 2 starts
- Current Form: 61.1 DK pts per over last 8 starts
Justin Thomas $9,600 (22-1)
It’s a no cut event held at a course where birdie makers thrive… this is a perfect spot to use Justin Thomas. He’s #1 in the field in birdie or better %, and you don’t have to worry about a blowup. He’s going to have 72 opportunities to make birdies, and $9,600 is a great price for someone with his upside.
- Stroke Differential: 6th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 8th
- Driving Accuracy: 51st
- Ball Striking: 12th
- Birdie or Better %: 1st
- Eagle or Better %: 2nd
- Par 3 Birdie or Better %: 27th
- Birdie or Better from 125-150 Yards %: 31st
- Birdie or Better from 175-200 Yards %: 12th
- Course History: N/A
- Current Form: 80.1 DK pts per over last 7 starts
Danny Lee $9,200 (28-1)
The General finished T-13 here last year, and he was red hot at the end of the 2014-15 PGA Tour season (75.5 DK points per start in the last three months). He’s solid tee-to-green and he makes a surprising amount of birdies, especially from the key yardage of 125-150.
- Stroke Differential: 16th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 28th
- Driving Accuracy: 27th
- Ball Striking: 49th
- Birdie or Better %: 8th
- Eagle or Better %: 21st
- Par 3 Birdie or Better %: 3rd
- Birdie or Better from 125-150 Yards %: 6th
- Birdie or Better from 175-200 Yards %: 31st
- Course History: 85.5 DK pts in 1 start
- Current Form: 75.5 DK pts per over last 7 starts
Gary Woodland $8,700 (35-1)
If it wasn’t for that pesky Ryan Moore, Woodland would be the two-time defending champ of this event. He hasn’t been all that great of late, but he seems to really like this course. His performance this week will be an interesting case study in course history v. current form.
- Stroke Differential: 47th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 41st
- Driving Accuracy: 56th
- Ball Striking: 34th
- Birdie or Better %: 49th
- Eagle or Better %: 23rd
- Par 3 Birdie or Better %: 56th
- Birdie or Better from 125-150 Yards %: 29th
- Birdie or Better from 175-200 Yards %: 15th
- Course History: 101 DK pts per in 2 starts
- Current Form: 48.7 DK pts per over last 5 starts
Robert Streb $8,200 (40-1)
He’s been shaky of late, but I really like his profile for this course. He’s a great ball striker and excellent on par 3s. He took last week off so he should be fresh, and I really like his price. In a week where it’s tough to find real value, Streb offers a lot of roster flexibility at only $8,200.
- Stroke Differential: 6th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 10th
- Driving Accuracy: 46th
- Ball Striking: 14th
- Birdie or Better %: 9th
- Eagle or Better %: 39th
- Par 3 Birdie or Better %: 2nd
- Birdie or Better from 125-150 Yards %: 22nd
- Birdie or Better from 175-200 Yards %: 11th
- Course History: N/A
- Current Form: 66.8 DK pts per over last 7 starts
Brendan Steele $8,000 (50-1)
Steele has been a popular pick the past couple of weeks, and a lot of people were burned when he missed the cut in Vegas. It’s the perfect time to get in on him. He’s excellent tee-to-green, and he makes a ton of birdies. Added bonus: he’s fantastic from both key yardages. He was a little lackluster last time out in Malaysia, which should drive his ownership down even further.
- Stroke Differential: 8th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 6th
- Driving Accuracy: 36th
- Ball Striking: 8th
- Birdie or Better %: 5th
- Eagle or Better %: 30th
- Par 3 Birdie or Better %: 40th
- Birdie or Better from 125-150 Yards %: 12th
- Birdie or Better from 175-200 Yards %: 5th
- Course History: 71 DK pts in 1 start
- Current Form: 64.7 DK pts per over last 8 starts
Nick Watney $7,900 (55-1)
Watney played pretty well last week; posting three rounds at 67 or better. He comes in at 55-1 and a reasonable $7,900 on DK. This is more of a form and price pick.
- Stroke Differential: 30th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 12th
- Driving Accuracy: 37th
- Ball Striking: 23rd
- Birdie or Better %: 27th
- Eagle or Better %: 31st
- Par 3 Birdie or Better %: 45th
- Birdie or Better from 125-150 Yards %: 53rd
- Birdie or Better from 175-200 Yards %: 56th
- Course History: 63.5 DK pts in 1 start
- Current Form: 66.1 DK pts per over last 9 starts
Russell Knox $7,500 (66-1)
This one is pretty simple: he’s cheap. I like his tee-to-green and ball striking numbers, and he’s pretty good from 125-150 yards. He may not have huge upside, but he’s steady. I think he finishes in the 15th-25th range; and given his price, he’s an excellent cash game play.
- Stroke Differential: 14th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 9th
- Driving Accuracy: 9th
- Ball Striking: 11th
- Birdie or Better %: 37th
- Eagle or Better %: 55th
- Par 3 Birdie or Better %: 28th
- Birdie or Better from 125-150 Yards %: 10th
- Birdie or Better from 175-200 Yards %: 33rd
- Course History: N/A
- Current Form: 54.8 DK pts per over last 8 starts
Charles Howell III $7,300 (80-1)
Chucky Three Sticks has been playing some solid golf of late; averaging 67.3 DK points per start over his last seven tournaments. He posted 88.5 DK points in his one and only try in Malaysia; a number that, if he could replicate, would thrill me given his price. He’s one of my favorite value plays of the week.
- Stroke Differential: 39th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 16th
- Driving Accuracy: 63rd
- Ball Striking: 34th
- Birdie or Better %: 56th
- Eagle or Better %: 13th
- Par 3 Birdie or Better %: 57th
- Birdie or Better from 125-150 Yards %: 65th
- Birdie or Better from 175-200 Yards %: 6th
- Course History: 88.5 DK pts in 1 start
- Current Form: 67.3 DK pts over last 7 starts
Jerry Kelly $7,000 (100-1)
His profile is actually much better than I would have expected. He’s elite on par 3s and from 125-150 yards and deadly accurate off the tee. I was surprised to find he’s 20th in the field in SGT2G. Throw in the fact that he, like Howell III, scored 85.5 DK points last time out in Kuala Lumpur, and you’ve got an excellent play at only $7,000.
- Stroke Differential: 20th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 33rd
- Driving Accuracy: 2nd
- Ball Striking: 42nd
- Birdie or Better %: 25th
- Eagle or Better %: 57th
- Par 3 Birdie or Better %: 1st
- Birdie or Better from 125-150 Yards %: 2nd
- Birdie or Better from 175-200 Yards %: 23rd
- Course History: 85.5 DK pts in 1 start
- Current Form: 55.8 DK pts per over last 6 starts
Pat Perez $6,600 (150-1)
Perez has a solid all-around game, and he makes lots of birdies. You’re going to get four rounds out of him, and I think the price is probably too good to pass up. It will be interesting to see if he’s as highly owned as I think he should be. On one hand, he has one of the most recognizable names priced below $7k in a week where value is tough to find. On the other, he’s missed both cuts in 2015-16. He’s the perfect Halloween-themed pick, as you’re never sure if you’re going to get a trick or treat with Pat.
- Stroke Differential: 17th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 38th
- Driving Accuracy: 18th
- Ball Striking: 24th
- Birdie or Better %: 7th
- Eagle or Better %: 37th
- Par 3 Birdie or Better %: 22nd
- Birdie or Better from 125-150 Yards %: 1st
- Birdie or Better from 175-200 Yards %: 45th
- Course History: 75 DK pts in 1 start
- Current Form: 56.3 DK pts per over last 8 starts
That’s a wrap. I’m not sure if other writers are going to bump up their schedules and put picks out tomorrow, but I’ll try to have the Expert Consensus up ASAP. Thanks for reading!
oreo
