Last week I had a “gut call” on an Amari Cooper breakout which went well (could have been even better if he could just stay in bounds) and a sneaky shootout between the Titans and Dolphins where at least the Titans lived up too, including my recommendations of Marcus Mariota and Delanie Walker. I won’t have those situations arise every week, as I don’t like to force it but this week does have another “gut call” for a cheap WR with only six receptions all season to catch a long TD this week.

As I have been doing my research for the Week 6 slate and wrote this article, I really like the “feel” of the slate. I think it is going to be a slate where you should do the opposite of what you have probably done to build DFS lineups so far. Most weeks there have been a lot of value plays at running back that has allowed everyone to get cheap options in the backfield while spending up at WR and either QB or TE. However, this week it seems like spending up at RB might be the way to go and the Increased Opportunities seem to also suggest that.

So let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

Projected Plays Pass Pass% Pass Yards Pass TD Run Run% Rush Yards Rush TD Score
Denver Broncos 65 37 56.9% 249 1.6 28 43.1% 111 1.2 23.7
San Diego Chargers 65 40 61.5% 247 1.4 25 38.5% 90 0.9 21.0

Look for the Broncos to execute their typical play distribution this week. The passing game with the return of Trevor Siemian will produce their typical yardage with a slightly increased chance for two touchdown passes. The running game will have a slight increase in rushing yards with a significantly increased chance for at least one rushing score. The Broncos have an even 50/50 split between run and pass plays in the red zone this season.

The Chargers project to execute their typical play distribution. The passing game will have a significant decrease in production with fewer passing yards and a decreased chance for any more than one touchdown pass. The rushing attack will produce their usual yardage with their typical chance for one rushing touchdown. The Chargers pass over 55% of the time in the red zone.

Increased Opportunities:

  • CJ Anderson (+)
  • Broncos defense (+)
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