Another week gone by and it was a nice week for our experts. There were some very nice scores posted throughout the week. Overall, I’d have to say that this was the best week so far this season for the expert group as a whole. Brad continued to widen the gap in our MLB Expert Grades season long standings. He keeps piling up the “A+” grades and managing to stay away from the failing ones. Last week we had several folks with scores over 3.0 but this week only our top-3 are above that mark. Our Lineup Construction had a pretty solid week in FanDuel and DraftKings including a big win on Friday on the FD side. Let’s get to it!
In this article, I will give a brief recap of each day we gathered and graded the experts, including how the Industry Consensus picks did, highlighting which experts were at the top for the day and which players were only called out by one expert, but produced an “A+” grade. We will also review the overall standings and highlight the top experts so far this season. And finally, I will publish results of our Lineup Construction series.
As a reminder, we are currently gathering selections and publishing the MLB Industry Consensus articles and MLB Consensus Lineup Construction articles each Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday during the season, so be sure to check back about an hour or so before the first pitch of the first game to get a look at the consensus picks and sample lineups for the day.
Overall Leaderboard
The top-3 overall are below. Brad continues to absolutely dominate the remaining experts. We grade the experts here at DailyOverlay but we have some pretty darn good experts of our own.
#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 3.98) continues to climb and distance himself from the competition. He’s approaching that 4.0 golden standard and I expect him to be there next week.
#2) DailyRoto (Score: 3.19) bumped their score but continued to see Brad run away from them. If you don’t have premium access to DR’s picks, you might consider doing so.
#3) Rotocurve (Score: 3.06) debuts in the top-3 this week. They have made a solid rise in the last few weeks. Will the pressure of the top-3 get to them this week?
Week in Review
Monday (May 23rd)
Some decent scores to start the week from the expert group. Seven of the 16 experts finished above 3.0.
Industry Consensus Picks
The Consensus didn’t fall flat but a 2.81 only brought home a 12th place finish for the day.
A+ – Clayton Kershaw, Johnny Cueto, Taijuan Walker, Rich Hill, Stephen Vogt, Taylor Motter, Brandon Guyer
F – Sixteen of the 36 selections finished with a failing grade.
Top Experts of the Day
#1) Rotocurve (Score: 7.50) started off the week nicely for a second week in a row. Three of their four selections brought home an “A+” grade.
#2) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 5.00) had some great and some bad on Monday. Brad made four plays and scored two “A+’s” and two failing grades.
Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Yoenis Cespedes (Scout)
A+ – Tommy Joseph (ESPN Daily Notes)
A+ – Neil Walker (DailyFantasyCafe)
Tuesday (May 24th)
Another good day on Tuesday for the experts. Eleven of the 17 experts scored above a 3.0 for the day!
Industry Consensus Picks
A solid 6th place finish on the day for the Consensus. The Consensus brought home a 3.53 score with ten “A+” selections.
A+ – Stephen Strasburg, Jeff Samardzija, Justin Verlander, Julio Teheran, Robinson Cano, Daniel Murphy, Manny Machado, Brandon Crawford, Leonys Martin, Gregory Polanco
F – A total of 14 of the 34 picks finished in the failing category.
Top Experts of the Day
#1) Daily Overlay – On the Hill (Score: 8.00) had a big day on Tuesday! Three of his four picks scored an “A+”.
#2) RotoGrinders 6-Pack (Score: 5.67) hauled in a 2nd place finish on Tuesday. Half of his six picks finished with an “A+” grade. The 6-Pack was the only expert to play Ben Rever and Adam Duvall, both of which scored an “A+” grade.
Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Luis Valbuena (DailyFantasySportsRankings)
A+ – Carlos Beltran (DailyFantasySportsRankings)
A+ – Ben Revere (RotoGrinders 6-Pack)
A+ – Adam Duvall (RotoGrinders 6-Pack)
A+ – Nomar Mazara (RotoGrinders Consensus)
A+ – Anthony Rendon (Fantasy Alarm)
A+ – Salvador Perez (Scout)
A+ – Mike Napoli (FantasyPros)
A+ – Francisco Lindor (FantasyPros)
Wednesday (May 25th)
Wednesday brought about a change in fortunes for the expert clan. Thirteen experts could not crack the 3.0 threshold for the day.
Industry Consensus Picks
The Consensus posted a 2.76 which was good for 6th on Wednesday.
A+ – Steven Wright, Robinson Cano, Xander Bogaerts, Travis Shaw, Gregory Polanco, Nelson Cruz
F – Twelve of the 33 selections finished with a failing grade.
Top Experts of the Day
#1) Rotocurve (Score: 6.00) topped the experts on Wednesday for the second time this week. A very small sample size though as Rotocurve made only two selections, one was an “A+” and the other a “C” grade. The “A+” came from Dan Straily and Rotocurve was the only expert to make that selection.
#2) DailyRoto (Score: 3.32) found themselves in the daily top-2 for the first time on Wednesday. Even with twelve of their 31 picks finding the failing grade, DR still managed to pull out the 3.32 thanks to eight “A+” grades. The only expert to play Evan Gattis.
Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Evan Gattis (DailyRoto)
A+ – Dan Straily (Rotocurve)
A+ – Adam Lind (Scout)
Friday (May 27th)
A nice end to a very good week from the experts. Nine folks cracked the 3.0 mark on Friday.
Industry Consensus Picks
The Consensus finished in 7th for the day with a nice 3.46 score. Most days a 3.46 will put you a lot higher than 7th.
A+ – Chris Archer, Masahiro Tanaka, Jonathan Lucroy, Derek Norris, Eric Hosmer, Jonathan Villar, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Adrian Beltre, Mike Trout
F – Sixteen of the 37 selections finished with a failing grade.
Top Experts of the Day
#1) Moxyball – Cheat Sheet (Score: 5.71) closed out the week with a bang. Four of their seven selections finished with an “A+” grade.
#2) FantasyTeamAdvice (Score: 5.20) polished off the week in good fashion. Four of the ten picks cracked the “A+” grade.
Sleepers of the Day
A+ – Matt Kemp (DailyFantasySportsRankings)
A+ – Andrew McCutchen (DailyRoto)
A+ – Nick Castellanos (DK Playbook)
A+ – Christian Friedrich (FantasyPros)
A+ – Aaron Hill (FantasyPros)
A+ – Jose Ramirez (ESPN Daily Notes)
Consensus Lineup Construction Review
Brad continues to destroy things with his Cash lineups. He has been money in the bank with those lately. His GPP fortunes remained the same and he has now failed to find the money the last couple weeks. There was some GPP success on the FanDuel side of the action on Friday. A nice top-250 finish in a field of over 50K produced a $37 profit. Stephen took a vacation the end of the week but will be back at it this week.
Here is a list of the “rules” we are following when constructing lineups:
- Matt will make two separate lineups for FanDuel and Brad will do the same for DraftKings, one for Cash games and one for GPP tournaments. Stephen will now provide a FantasyAces Cash and GPP lineup for at least two days each week. Stephen will use the same lineup for both Cash and GPP.
- For Cash games, we will try to build our entire lineup from the Consensus list using any player listed regardless of what tier they are in. This has proven a bit difficult to get a top-tier pitcher in our lineups by using only Consensus plays. For that reason, we now have tweaked the rules a bit and allow for one off the board play in the Cash game format.
- For GPP games, we are allowed to choose up to two players that are not on the Consensus list.
- We can modify any lineup as we see fit for any late-breaking news updates that open up good options even if they are not on the Consensus list.
Weekly/Overall Results
FanDuel
Well it was a swell Friday on FanDuel! Picking on John Lamb and Kyle Davies worked out nicely. Not to mention, the only player outside that Brewers/Reds game that I play was Josh Donaldson and he went deep twice. Other than that, the week was up and down. Two really high finishes in the Cash game but Friday was the only profitable GPP of the week.
| Day | Cash Score | Cash Place | Profit (Loss) | GPP Score | GPP Place | Profit (Loss) | Picks By |
| Monday | 178.2 | 4/100 | $1.60 | 127.5 | 16,258/46,668 | ($3.00) | Matt |
| Tuesday | 115 | 79/100 | ($2.00) | 121.7 | 30,574/55,358 | ($3.00) | Matt |
| Wednesday | 119.6 | 51/100 | ($2.00) | 104.1 | 2,389/3,468 | ($2.00) | Matt |
| Friday | 178.7 | 6/100 | $1.60 | 219.8 | 233/50,096 | $37.00 | Matt |
DraftKings
Brad’s cash game lineups are becoming money in the bank. Brad’s GPP lineups are the exact opposite. If you’re playing a 50/50 or Double Up, just plug his lineup in, then sit back and collect your money. His no win streak on the GPP side of things is almost as remarkable as his winning streak on the cash side. He’s going to get it rolling and it’s going to be soon.
| Day | Cash Score | Cash Place | Profit (Loss) | GPP Score | GPP Place | Profit (Loss) | Picks By |
| Monday | 136.1 | 36/100 | $1.60 | 96.1 | 11,802/17,647 | ($1.00) | Brad |
| Tuesday | 93.75 | 69/100 | ($2.00) | 61.05 | 13,943/14,705 | ($1.00) | Brad |
| Wednesday | 104.4 | 46/100 | $1.60 | 117.3 | 365/1,176 | ($1.00) | Brad |
| Friday | 124.05 | 50/100 | $1.60 | 103.35 | 5,696/11,764 | ($1.00) | Brad |
FantasyAces
Stephen took a long Memorial Day weekend vacation so he did not produce a lineup on Friday. Prior to vacation, his weekend was not stellar. As I said when Stephen made the switch to Aces, it’s a completely different animal than FD or DK in my opinion.
| Day | Cash Score | Cash Place | Profit (Loss) | GPP Score | GPP Place | Profit (Loss) | Picks By |
| Monday | 61.5 | 193/300 | ($1.10) | 61.5 | 635/937 | ($2.75) | Stephen |
| Tuesday | 60.5 | 156/300 | ($1.10) | 60.5 | 527/1,000 | ($2.75) | Stephen |
| Wednesday | N/A | N/A | N/A | 51.75 | 513/700 | ($2.75) | Stephen |
The grid below shows a recap of the results so far this season. That total ROI number is so close to hopping into the black for the season. The big FD night on Friday really helped those numbers. FanDuel has proven profitable with a 15.6% ROI. Everything else is trailing, though if Brad could cash a GPP a couple times, the DraftKings number would shoot into the black.
| FanDuel | Cash Entry Fees | Cash Tot Winnings | Cash ROI | GPP Entry Fees | GPP Tot Winnings | GPP ROI | Tot Entry Fees | Tot Winnings | Tot ROI |
| Matt | $60.00 | $54.00 | -10.0% | $66.00 | $92.51 | 40.2% | $126.00 | $146.51 | 16.3% |
| Stephen | $9.00 | $12.60 | 40.0% | $10.00 | $8.50 | -15.0% | $19.00 | $21.10 | 11.1% |
| Greg | $0.00 | $0.00 | #DIV/0! | $0.00 | $0.00 | #DIV/0! | $0.00 | $0.00 | #DIV/0! |
| FD Overall | $69.00 | $66.60 | -3.5% | $76.00 | $101.01 | 32.9% | $145.00 | $167.61 | 15.6% |
| DraftKings | Cash Entry Fees | Cash Tot Winnings | Cash ROI | GPP Entry Fees | GPP Tot Winnings | GPP ROI | Tot Entry Fees | Tot Winnings | Tot ROI |
| Brad | $66.00 | $64.80 | -1.8% | $33.00 | $25.00 | -24.2% | $99.00 | $89.80 | -9.3% |
| DK Overall | $66.00 | $64.80 | -1.8% | $33.00 | $25.00 | -24.2% | $99.00 | $89.80 | -9.3% |
| FantasyAces | Cash Entry Fees | Cash Tot Winnings | Cash ROI | GPP Entry Fees | GPP Tot Winnings | GPP ROI | Tot Entry Fees | Tot Winnings | Tot ROI |
| Stephen | $13.20 | $6.00 | -54.5% | $35.75 | $22.50 | -37.1% | $48.95 | $28.50 | -41.8% |
| FA Overall | $13.20 | $6.00 | -54.5% | $35.75 | $22.50 | -37.1% | $48.95 | $28.50 | -41.8% |
| Overall | $148.20 | $137.40 | -7.3% | $144.75 | $148.51 | 2.6% | $292.95 | $285.91 | -2.4% |
Ownership Percentage Tracking
We had a hypothesis at DailyOverlay that we could utilize the Industry Consensus list to help predict ownership percentages with the assumption being that players who were selected by more experts would likely be higher owned picks in Cash and GPP tournaments.
Below is the current table showing the data we have tracked so far this season. Results are using DraftKings Double-Up or 50/50s for Cash and large field multi-entry tournaments for GPP. The Count column shows the number of times a player was selected by the experts for a given day. The Cash % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a Cash game. The GPP % column shows the average ownership percentage of those players in a GPP tournament. The Total column shows the number of occurrences that a player was selected that many times.
In addition to the Overall Ownership chart, we have added a couple of items this week. We broke down ownership percentage by position for the Cash and GPP. You can find those charts below as well.
Overall
| Count | Cash% | GPP% | Total |
| 14 | 68.10% | 42.00% | 1 |
| 13 | 49.60% | 28.40% | 1 |
| 12 | 66.05% | 45.70% | 6 |
| 11 | 56.00% | 34.48% | 4 |
| 10 | 55.42% | 37.61% | 11 |
| 9 | 43.73% | 26.45% | 32 |
| 8 | 35.37% | 22.67% | 50 |
| 7 | 35.06% | 22.94% | 58 |
| 6 | 23.01% | 16.58% | 96 |
| 5 | 21.52% | 16.20% | 167 |
| 4 | 14.68% | 11.91% | 271 |
| 3 | 10.32% | 9.77% | 351 |
| 2 | 6.18% | 6.84% | 650 |
| 1 | 2.99% | 3.82% | 1362 |
Cash by Position
| Count | SP | C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | Total |
| 14 | 68.10% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 68.10% |
| 13 | 49.60% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 49.60% |
| 12 | 72.76% | 32.50% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 66.05% |
| 11 | 58.87% | N/A | 47.40% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 56.00% |
| 10 | 58.10% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 26.50% | N/A | 60.20% | 55.42% |
| 9 | 51.64% | N/A | 36.27% | 29.73% | 49.70% | 30.95% | 39.93% | 43.73% |
| 8 | 25.80% | 29.07% | 31.29% | 44.82% | 34.93% | 41.90% | 52.02% | 35.37% |
| 7 | 34.47% | 31.43% | 15.00% | 29.32% | 40.77% | 36.75% | 37.07% | 35.06% |
| 6 | 23.29% | 22.31% | 19.71% | 15.50% | 20.44% | 25.53% | 27.82% | 23.01% |
| 5 | 22.10% | 21.12% | 20.13% | 20.46% | 19.36% | 17.41% | 25.28% | 21.52% |
| 4 | 13.74% | 16.70% | 11.66% | 11.03% | 12.45% | 13.49% | 19.74% | 14.68% |
| 3 | 12.00% | 11.06% | 9.13% | 8.90% | 10.95% | 8.28% | 11.31% | 10.32% |
| 2 | 7.91% | 5.44% | 4.52% | 5.41% | 6.49% | 4.76% | 7.42% | 6.18% |
| 1 | 3.20% | 4.32% | 2.22% | 3.11% | 2.67% | 2.12% | 3.25% | 2.99% |
GPP by Position
| Count | SP | C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | Total |
| 14 | 42.00% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 42.00% |
| 13 | 28.40% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 28.40% |
| 12 | 48.86% | 29.90% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 45.70% |
| 11 | 37.90% | N/A | 24.20% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 34.48% |
| 10 | 40.92% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 17.10% | N/A | 28.30% | 37.61% |
| 9 | 33.78% | N/A | 15.50% | 18.58% | 31.18% | 13.55% | 22.43% | 26.45% |
| 8 | 22.67% | 17.38% | 17.63% | 23.46% | 20.37% | 19.85% | 35.68% | 22.67% |
| 7 | 24.05% | 19.50% | 9.30% | 18.28% | 26.06% | 22.77% | 23.37% | 22.94% |
| 6 | 20.47% | 16.68% | 14.36% | 11.68% | 14.45% | 15.84% | 17.42% | 16.58% |
| 5 | 19.05% | 14.97% | 14.92% | 14.80% | 16.10% | 13.24% | 17.43% | 16.20% |
| 4 | 14.25% | 14.80% | 8.92% | 9.93% | 12.01% | 9.98% | 13.52% | 11.91% |
| 3 | 12.49% | 10.48% | 6.59% | 9.03% | 10.94% | 8.06% | 10.47% | 9.77% |
| 2 | 10.28% | 7.14% | 5.43% | 6.04% | 6.73% | 5.46% | 7.19% | 6.84% |
| 1 | 5.61% | 4.26% | 3.07% | 3.76% | 3.14% | 3.09% | 4.00% | 3.82% |
We see what we expect here. The ownership percentages trend down, the less a player is pick. Geez thanks, Mr. Rocket Scientist Matt Butler. There are a couple of anomalies and strangely they are at 1B. As always, we’ll keep providing the info as long as it’s insightful. This week we started looking at a player’s salary and if there is any correlation between that and the DO score. We just started breaking it down in the last couple of days so stayed tuned to see if it provides useful insights. Is there any additional data pertaining to ownership that you’d like to see broken down? Drop us a line in the comments.
