It’s good to have America’s Pastime back in full force!
Our inaugural edition of The Stack got off to a solid start, though letting Matt Davidson fall through the cracks irks me.
But the White Sox were certainly the play against southpaw Danny Duffy.
My boy Giancarlo came through in a huge way against a lefty, again. It’s a thing, get on board.
Now we have a quick turnaround to another 9-game slate for Friday night.
Sadly though, we do not get to enjoy picking on Homer Bailey with the Washington Nationals. You have to play the short slates or utilize the PlayDraft app to get your exposure.
The Stack will continue its free preview tonight and through next week. It will also publish either Mondays or Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Fridays. Once I am off work for the summer, we will likely extend that to cover 4 or maybe 5 days per week.
The Stack’s premise and disclaimer for how it works includes player recommendations, between 2 and 5 from one team, comparing their pricing to the starting pitchers available and factoring in roster construction.
Today is going to be one of those tough days though because there are so many fantastic one-offs and we have a lot of pitching up top that look to be solid plays. Finding that value play at SP2 is going to be crucial in fitting some of the top bats tonig
Lastly, I feel like overall, the choice of pitching for the second day of baseball is rather weak. We have two rookies on the hill, a journeyman or two and an eff ton of lefties.
Hope you are off to a great start to MLB DFS 2018 and are enjoying the Stack so far. With that said, may the force be with you.
BOSTON RED SOX
1. Mookie Betts – $4,800
2. J.D. Martinez – $4,600
3. Hanley Ramirez – $3,500
Total Cost – $12,900
Percentage Salary Cap – 26%
2017 Combined Home Runs – 93
Justification – If it weren’t for some of the 3B plays on today’s slate, I would include Rafael Devers. I still might throw in a stack with him, but the majority of my exposure at 3B will be Arenado and Kris Bryant, and maybe an Adrian Beltre or two even. The position is loaded, let’s just say that. Now, the Red Sox get Blake Snell tonight, a crafty up-and-coming southpaw with upside, so you could make the case that it’s a tough matchup, and it is in a sense, but the Red Sox listed have absolutely destroyed lefties in their careers. Most notably, J.D. Martinez who falls into the Giancarlo Rule for lefties. Martinez has a .438 wOBA, a .176 wRC+ and a .341 ISO against left-handed pitching the past two seasons. Betts’ numbers aren’t that swoll, but they are solid – .364 wOBA, .229 ISO, 125 wRC+. HanRam is aging, but his numbers are still noteworthy and he’s a cheap power bat at 1B tonight. Against LH pitching since 2016, Hanley sports a .373 wOBA, .341 ISO, 131 wRC+ and a 38% hard contact rate.
CHICAGO CUBS
1. Anthony Rizzo – $5,200
2. Kris Bryant – $5,400
3. Javier Baez – $4,300
4. Willson Contreras – $4,800
Total Cost – $19,700
Percentage Salary Cap – 39%
2017 Combined Home Runs – 111
Justification – I imagine this is going to be one of the more popular stacks on the board, but out of the four listed above, Anthony Rizzo will go under owned because he’s a lefty facing a starting lefty pitcher. What people don’t realize is that Rizzo is stout against southpaws – .367 wOBA, 126 wRC+, and a .224 ISO. Throwing him in a four-man with the other three guys will be contrarian to the Cubs’ popularity. As for the rest, Bryant gets the Giancarlo Rule stamp of approval with his .423 wOBA, .279 ISO, 38% hard contact rate and 164 wRC+ against lefties. Baez and Contreras each have wOBAs above .367 against lefties along with ISOs of .215 or greater, and 30+ hard contact rates against. The ballpark can be a tough pill to swallow, but the matchup is just too juicy against young Caleb Smith, whose major league numbers against RH bats are just sad – .372 wOBA allowed, 1.46 HR/9 and a 34% hard contact rate. Oh, and I am plenty happy with the salary leftover when I put these four guys in with my favored upper tier and value pitchers on the slate, so it can work very well.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
1. Carlos Santana – $4,200
2. J.P. Crawford – $3,500
3. Nick Williams – $3,500
Total Cost – $11,200
Percentage of Salary Cap – 22%
2017 Combined Home Runs – 36
Justification – Hoping these three guys are close together in tonight’s lineup, this 3-man stack becomes a value play that should go underowned. Outside of Rhys Hoskins, the Phillies should go overlooked tonight against Folty, who we all know gets shelled by lefties (like Teheran) and is pitching in a ballpark built for left-handed power. It will be difficult to play Santana at 1B, but as part of a stack with some upper-tier pitching, you can really set yourself apart from the field in tournaments. Santana owns a .375 wOBA and .252 ISO against RH pitching the past two seasons. Crawford is still trying to find his way, but he’s a rookie with upside that will hit in one of the top 5-6 slots in the order while Williams has shown flashes of greatness with his .353 wOBA and .205 ISO. Trust me, I would add Rhys Hoskins too, but I think he will be over owned in a much tougher matchup than Opening Day.
HOUSTON ASTROS
1. Brian McCann – $3,400
2. Josh Reddick – $3,500
3. Derek Fisher – $3,200
Total Cost – $10,100
Percentage of Salary – 20%
2017 Combined Home Runs – 37
Justification – In my opinion, the Astros are going to be over popular on today’s slate. It’s the beginning of the season, the Rangers suck and so does their bullpen, so there’s merit to the rationale. However, to get to the bullpen, the Astros have to get through Doug Fister. It’s not really hot or humid in Texas yet, so stacking teams playing in Arlington isn’t pristine yet. Fister also is a supreme ground ball pitcher to RH bats (53%), and he’s tough on them. But where things will go a bit overlooked are the lefties in this lineup. Brian McCann is my favorite catcher on the slate. He’s caught Fister before and I love taking catchers against pitchers they have been behind the plate for. Reddick and Derek Fisher (who I am assuming cracks the lineup today), provide a little pop lower in the order. All of these guys are lefties, and that’s where Fister struggles – .389 wOBA allowed, 1.68 HR/9, 38% hard contact rate allowed the past two seasons. Pay for the top pitchers you want and stack these three guys easy (AND some stud bats).
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
1. Mike Trout – $5,200
2. Chris Young – $2,800
3. Justin Upton – $4,500
4. Zack Cozart – $4,000
Total Cost – $16.500
Percentage of Salary – 33%
2017 Combined Home Runs – 99
Justification – A day after Mike Trout let down the world, we get him against a lefty and a young pitcher he has destroyed early on. Trout vs. a lefty = Giancarlo vs. a lefty. I am telling you, there are a ton of these guys for me tonight. Trout is my favorite one-off OF and cash game play. Trout against lefties – .405 wOBA, 160 wRC+, .209 ISO, 40% hard contact. This stack could be a 5-man if Kinsler enters the lineup after injury, so watch out for that. Upton is the wild card for me. In 2016, Upton couldn’t hit a lefty with a tree trunk, but he corrected that career outlier by rounding back into form against southpaws last season. I will rely on the data that suggests his dominance over lefty pitching – .388 wOBA, 144 wRC+, .283 ISO the past two seasons combined. Chris Young should be a platoon guy that sees the lineup, but he may hit lower in the lineup as a punt play. Cozart also dominates southpaws – .375 wOBA, 130 wRC+, .260 ISO. Angels could be sneaky in this road matchup, despite facing Manaea who should improve on his struggles from last season.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
1. Khris Davis – $4,100
2. Stephen Piscotty – $3,300
Total Cost – $7,400
Percentage of Salary – 14%
2017 Combined Home Runs – 52
Justification – I guess I like this game quite a bit, eh? I like Skaggs more than the A’s lineup, but here we have another lefty smasher in Khris Davis, who is underpriced and should go relatively overlooked tonight. The Coliseum certainly can lend some struggles to power hitters, but Davis’ numbers are fantastic against lefties over the past two season – .350 wOBA, 121 wRC+, 44% hard contact rate, .261 ISO and a very low BABIP of .272 (which means he should have some positive regression to the mean coming). Piscotty is a salary saver against Skaggs, but for tournaments only. Piscotty still has to prove last season’s below sub-par year is an outlier. Piscotty hits lefties very well, too though, recording a .379 wOBA with a 133 wRC+ and a .211 ISO.
