Of all of my stack recommendations today, I will not have any one-offs not on this list. I have five stacks that I like, some probably a little obvious, but I think ownership will be spread out among all of these today.
And one stack I am going against my rule, so if it doesn’t work out, then please remind me that I am stupid not to follow my own rules!
We have 9 games on the slate today, and while the Yankees, Orioles, Mets and Phillies play doubleheaders today, we don’t get any of them on the main slate.
Check out the stacks below, follow me on Twitter (@hotdogdaily_DFS) and on DRAFT (hotdogphingers). Good luck tonight and may the force be with you!
GAME STACK – WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Nationals
1. Bryce Harper
2. Juan Soto
3. Daniel Murphy
4. Matt Adams
PIrates
1. Corey Dickerson
2. Gregory Polanco
3. Colin Moran
4. Starling Marte
Analysis: I think the Nationals will garner quite a bit of ownership today, but again I believe it will be a bit spread out. I like this game overall as a game stack. The Nats are warming up and are coming off a 17-run game over the weekend. Things might be finally gelling for this team that struggled for most all of June. Bryce Harper is my favorite play from this game, and he is well overdue for a home run and a big day. The Nats get Ivan Nova, who has allowed a .358 wOBA and .220 ISO to lefties this season. Adams and Harper have solid early BvP numbers against Nova – 8-for-17 combined with 2 home runs, 7 RBI and 3 doubles. Murphy is 4-for-11 with 2 walks, Soto hasn’t faced him yet, but he’s destroying Nova’s pitch-types this season, especially the sinker, which Nova throws 40% of the time. Against sinkers, Soto owns a .522 wOBA and .286 ISO against. As for the Pirates, they get rookie Jefry Rodriguez who has struggled early on in the bigs, especially lefty bats as he owns .414 wOBA and .281 ISO against. Dickerson, Polanco and Moran are a cheaper stack out of everyone on the Stack today as a 3-man lefty stack. I like Marte just because he hits righties better than lefties, has 3 straight games with 2 or more hits and Rodriguez owns a .226 ISO against righties this season.
BOSTON RED SOX
1. Mookie Betts
2. J.D. Martinez
3. Steve Pearce
4. Xander Bogaerts
Analysis: Will Mike Minor continue to burn me as I continue to stack against him? He’s been an alright pitcher this year, I will give him that, but I still don’t think he is very good. The Red Sox have some of the top bats against lefty pitchers in the league, starting with Mookie and J.D. There’s a chance J.D. doesn’t crack the lineup because of some general soreness, making this stack a little less appealing, but not out. Either way, Mookie is the top play on the slate for me. He’s dominating lefty pitching this year with a .382 ISO and .477 wOBA. J.D. owns a .400 wOBA and .231 ISO while Bogaerts, who is hitting in the middle of this order, is 2-for-6 with 2 doubles and a walk against Minor in his career. Pearce is the new addition to this team and he’s always been a lefty masher. It shows early on in ABs against Minor as Pearce is 4-for-8 with a double and a home run against. Against RH pitching, Minor has allowed a .336 wOBA and .220 ISO. Lets not forget this game is in Fenway, where RH bats get long singles and doubles from flyouts due to the Green Monster.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
1. Francisco Lindor
2. Jose Ramirez
3. Yonder Alonso
4. Michael Brantley
Analysis: I don’t feel like I want to pay up for any pitching today. Cole has struggled, Kershaw isn’t Kershaw, Berrios faces a team that doesn’t strike out and Clevinger is just overpriced against a scrappy Reds’ team. I am going Chris Archer against the RH heavy Tigers, despite him coming off the DL for his first start. He’s cheap and gets a ballpark boost. Because of that, I can stack teams like the Indians, who take a lot of salary cap space for this four-man. But it’s a worthy stack against Reds’ starter Anthony DeSclafani, who gets pounded by lefty bats. In 2018, DeSclafani has allowed a .341 wOBA and .317 ISO to lefties. All four lefties above have wOBAs of .341 or better and ISOs of .180 or better.
HOUSTON ASTROS
1. Jose Altuve
2. Alex Bregman
3. George Springer
4. Kyle Tucker
Analysis: Here’s where I am abandoning my rule – Don’t stack Astros at home. Why is that a rule? Because they can’t score at home during the regular season most days. But now they have Kyle Tucker, a splendid rookie phenom who can jolt this offense. He’s a big, bad lefty who will want to hit his first home run of his career in front of the home crowd. The Astros are expensive against Frankie Montas, but he’s way overpriced going up against this Astros’ team, so that’s a big red flag for me, too. Against lefties, Montas has allowed a .361 wOBA and .213 ISO. He’s been better against righties, but he has regression coming, as evidenced by his 4.56 xFIP and 52% hard contact allowed to righties this season.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
1. Joc Pederson
2. Cody Bellinger
3. Max Muncy
4. Yasmani Grandal
Analysis: I think people will still want to stack the Dodgers even though they could be starting to cool off a bit after their recent boost in offense. But they get a great draw tonight against Luis Perdomo, who I like to play against right-handed heavy offenses. The Dodgers aren’t that offense. Above are 4 lefties that can crush baseballs, even in ballparks like PETCO. Against lefties this season, Perdomo owns a .415 wOBA, .149 ISO and 50% hard hit rate. Muncy is 1-for-1 against Perdomo with a homer, Bellinger is 3-for-4 with 2 doubles and a walk, Pederson is 3-for-12 with a homer and should be leading off on the road while Grandal is 4-for-14 with 2 homers and 5 RBI in his career against Perdomo. Everyone here has had early success against Perdomo and it’s because of his inability to get lefties out and allow them to leave the yard against him.
