Sorry I missed you Friday, I was up late with a sick kid and wasn’t able to do my usual baseball DFS routine and churn out a Stack.
But I am back for today’s slate, which features 7 games and not a ton of options absolutely stick out.
However, I will say the Mets are going to be the chalk stack of the slate, followed by the Nationals. One of these two teams do not make my short list tonight.
Stephen Strasburg is certainly the No. 1 pitcher of the slate and since it’s not going to be overly warm in San Diego, I think he’s a safer play than usual.
Finding that SP2 is going to be tough. You could make a case against a lot of the pitchers on the slate. But I will not be playing Kyle Hendricks, just any FYI. If it burns me, it burns me. I don’t play expensive guys who pitch 5-6 innings and don’t strike out anyone.
I also have learned a lot of lessons about trying to pick on this Marlins squad that doesn’t strike out a ton.
Before we get to the stacks, here are my favorite one-offs for tonight – Joey Gallo, James McCann, Kris Bryant and Rhys Hoskins. Fitting all of those guys in will be a little difficult if you use Strasburg.
Anyway, let’s get down to business for tonight, and as always, may the Force be with you!
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
1. Buster Posey – $3,800
2. Brandon Belt – $4,100
3. Brandon Crawford – $3,200
4. Andrew McCutchen – $4,000
Total Cost – $15,100
Percentage of Salary Cap – 30%
Combined 2018 Home Runs – 14
Starting Pitcher HR/9 vs. L (2018) – 6.75
Starting Pitcher HR/9 vs. R (2018) – 0
Justification – The Giants are one of, if not my No. 1 stack, of the entire slate. They are a hot team right now. They’ve won four in a row and have scored 9, 9, 11 and 4 runs in that stretch. Now they get a favorable ballpark upgrade and take on one of the worst pitchers of the slate (Zach Eflin). The four guys listed are all smoking hot right now. Eflin has been a terrible pitcher against both sides of the plate. Against RH bats, Eflin carries a .134 wOBA with a 0.00 ERA and 4.71 xFIP. He’s already getting smoked by lefties to start the year with a 50% hard contact rate, but against them in 2016-17, Eflin owns a .385 wOBA.
CINCINNATI REDS
1. Eugenio Suarez – $4,900
2. Adam Duvall – $4,000
Total Cost – $8,900
Percentage of Salary Cap – 18%
Combined 2018 Home Runs – 9
Starting Pitcher HR/9 vs. L (2018) – N/A
Starting Pitcher HR/9 vs. R (2018) – N/A
Justification – This is a case where he have a rookie starting pitcher making his first start on the road in a small ball park. How many checks do you need here? Suarez and Duvall are the lefty mashers in this lineup. Both have hard contact rates of 60% or more against lefties this season, but the production hasn’t been there. The numbers will correct themselves eventually and hopefully this is the game to do it against Mets’ lefty P.J. Conton.
NEW YORK METS
1. Asdrubal Cabrera – $4,300
2. Michael Conforto – $3,400
3. Jay Bruce – $3,800
4. Brandon Nimmo (if Cespedes sits) – $3,400
Total Cost – $14,900
Percentage of Salary Cap – 29%
Combined 2018 Home Runs – 10
Starting Pitcher HR/9 vs. L (2018) – 2.00
Starting Pitcher HR/9 vs. R (2018) – 1.69
Justification – The Nats are the team that doesn’t make my list tonight. I will play them, but Bryce Harper at $5,900 is a tough sell overall, especially trying to fit in Stras. Anyway, this stack will be a 4-man depending on the status of Yoenis Cespedes, who left Sunday’s game in the second inning with a leg issue. So if he’s out, then I believe the Mets let Finding Brandon Nimmo take some swings in the starting lineup. Bruce, Conforto and Asdrubal are the lefty power bats in this lineup. Wait. Did I mention Homer Bailey is terrible against lefties? .345 wOBA and a 2.00 HR/9 rate.
HOUSTON ASTROS
1. Carlos Correa – $5,000
2. George Springer – $5,200
3. Yuli Gurriel – $3,200
Total Cost – $13,400
Percentage of Salary Cap – 26%
Combined 2018 Home Runs – 13
Starting Pitcher HR/9 vs. L (2018) – 0
Starting Pitcher HR/9 vs. R (2018) – 2.45
Justification – My boy Jose Altuve has been bad against lefties in 2018. In his career, he has crushed them, but I am going to have to dial it back with Altuve against lefties for the time being. Houston is taking on Brett Anderson, a ground ball lefty who had a great tendency to blow up last year. Without Altuve in this stack, I will sub in Yuli Gurriel with Springer and Correa, all of whom have a .340 wOBA and 34% hard contact rate against lefties this season. Gurriel is a sneaky play today because no one plays him and he can hit 6th or clean up and produce.
