Daily Overlay decided we would cover all baseball slates during the week, so here we are with our first split slate of May and of this week.
For Value Index purposes, we will do all picks I like today in one write-up. Because i am doing it all in one bundle, i will have 3 recommendations I like most for each slate.
For the record, the night slate is awful.
Not a lot of talk today, you have lineups to make! Good luck!
Early Slate
Ian Kennedy – SP – Kansas City Royals – $8,500
Analysis: Max Scherzer is on this early slate, and while he’s such a duck for homeruns, he’s clearly the top option, so we need to find a pitcher to pair with him in cash games. Meet Ian Kennedy, another home run prone pitcher. However, he’s up against the White Sox at home today, a team you shouldn’t be afraid to pick on with RH pitchers. Kennedy has benefited from the confines of Kaufmann Stadium, which is a perfect place for a fly-ball pitcher to have the majority of his starts. Kennedy also has owned the White Sox. In 104 ABs, the White Sox have scored just 9 runs with the current roster and hit only 2 home runs. The Sox are 23-for-104 against him, a paltry .221 batting average. If Kennedy is hitting his spots, this one should pay off easily.
Jose Altuve – 2B – Houston Astros – $4,900
Analysis: Altuve was a big bust yesterday against Nick Martinez, so that’s why he’s here today, because we go back to the well. Usually dominant against lefties, Altuve can hit right-handed pitchers very well, too. Today the Rangers are thrusting A.J. Griffin back into action. That makes me want to throw up a little bit, but without Hamels, the Rangers have to throw something resembling a pitcher on the mound. Griffin has actually been tough on RH pitching since 2016, but gets punished by lefties. The one exception here is Altuve, who has the BvP against Griffin to make him very well in play today. Altuve is 8-for-18 with 2 doubles, 2 HRs, 3 RBI and 3 walks. This is a lock for me in cash games.
Khris Davis – OF – Oakland Athletics – $4,000
Analysis: Who will win the grudge match between the A’s and Twins today? The A’s are one of the worst teams against RH pitching while Gibson is…well, just bad. There’s one bright spot (besides Miguel Sano) in this game and it’s Khris with a K Davis. This year, Davis sports a .433 wOBA, a .418 ISO and a 55.6% hard contact rate against RH pitching. He gets to face Gibson in a ballpark that favors RH bats and he gets to face Gibson, who has been just as bad as Davis has been good, against righties. What I mean by that is RH bats have a .421 wOBA and a 38.5% hard contact rate against Gibson this year. Sign me up.
Late Slate
Dan Straily – SP – Miami Marlins – $9,600
Analysis: I feel like help is needed in deciding who to play at pitcher in tonight’s slate. I mean, we have Dan Straily as the highest-priced pitcher. While it kind of sucks to pay that price for him, he might be the best option overall. He’s flashed the double-digit upside in strikeouts this season and he gets a high-strikeout team in the Rays, who have been solid against RH pitching this season. Straily owns a 9.6 K/9 against RH bats and a 10.6 K/9 against LH bats this season. Meanwhile, the Rays strike out at more than a 25% clip. It’s not a comfortable feeling, but Straily feels like the cash game play at pitcher tonight with tournament upside and likely lower ownership due to his price. But can you stomach rostering Dan Straily? And why are you playing cash games tonight?
Wilmer Flores – 1B/3B – New York Mets – $3,000
Analysis: He’s back! Wilmer Flores was activated from the DL a couple of days ago and should get thrust into tonight’s lineup against a lefty in a hitter-friendly atmosphere. In 2017, Flores has a .528 wOBA and a .462 ISO with a 33.3% hard contact rate against lefties this season. He had been batting cleanup against a lefty, so we will see what happens with that. As for the pitcher he is facing, it’s Jamie Garcia, a southpaw who has given up 36.5% hard contact against RH bats, who also have a .343 wOBA with a 1.59 HR/9 rate in 2017. Play Flores everywhere!
Mike Trout – OF – Los Angeles Angels – $5,400
Analysis: Here we have the battle of the sea – The Little Mermaid (Ariel Miranda) vs. Trout. The Little Mermaid is a lefty that allows more than a 2 HR/9 rate to right-handed bats, while Mike Trout destroys lefties. I don’t need to say anything else.
