MLB Value Index – April 26

So it turns out, Clayton Kershaw at $14,400 was not exactly the right play.

Three games postpone.

Then when you thought Coors might not play because of weather, you fade the players you liked *cough* Carlos Gonzalez *cough*. It goes off.

Chris Owings is 60 percent owned in cash games.

The night turns south, you reevaluate and move on to the next day.

It happens. What is “it,” you say?

What do you think?

IT minus the SH, happens.

We flush it, stand up and feel relieved that we rid ourselves of waste, and move on about the rest of our day.

Today we have an 12-game slate, with fortunately not much weather to be concerned about this time.

And away we go…

P.S. I would love Carlos Martinez tonight, but preliminary looks at the weather in STL aren’t looking good at all, so I am not recommending him tonight.

Analysis: First off, you are playing Thor. Maybe not everywhere, but a lot. I said I love C-Mart, but the weather is bad. Now we are here. Yes, Trevor Cahill. Believe me, I want to talk myself out of it, I want to ignore my research, I want to ignore the disbelief I have in even typing his name. We’ve seen some pitchers overachieve so far this season. Amir Garrett, Jason Vargas, Wade Miley, etc. Their underlying numbers showed regression was/is imminent. Cahill’s numbers do not actually suggest that he is pitching poorly. So here they are…he sports a 10.31 K/9 rate and a 3.44 ERA, but his xFiP (2.90) and SIERA (3.03) show us that he is pitching right where he is supposed to be. There is one advanced stat is concerning and that is his .233 BABIP. It’s very low and as BABIP always does, will regress to the mean. So he’s been somewhat lucky. He gets one of the best offenses against RH pitching in their home ballpark, which can be a landmine for pitchers. So, how in the hell can I even think of rostering Cahill? 1. Because I don’t like the mid-tier options, so I am thinking full punt here and boy are you getting this guy cheap. He’s $4,200! That’s it! He’s got a high K rate (against teams that don’t strikeout much might I add) and is facing a team that strikes out 26 percent of the time against RH bats. It’s the NL, so we don’t have the DH, which means a very good chance for an extra K and/or out. This is a revenge game of sorts for Cahill, who played for the D-Backs a few years ago. As I type this, it scares the bejeesus out of me. Maybe I am crazy, but I am looking at him for a cheap source of strikeouts at a low, low, low price.

Analysis: The rest of today’s picks really make more season and the bats are all about the handedness they are facing. A few of them you are familiar with, too. First up we have Mike Trout versus lefty Sean Manaea. Trout versus a lefty? Yes, please. Since 2015, Trout has a ridiculous .426 wOBA to go along with a .260 ISO and a 43% hard contact rate. Trout has been otherworldly so far this season, and if it weren’t for Eric Thames, we would be noticing a bit more. He has 6 HRs this season and is batting .333. In his last 10, he has 12 hits with 3 doubles, a triple and 3 HRs. Against Manaea, Trout is 4-for-7 with a triple, a homer and 2 walks. Trout is also pretty cheap considering the type of player he is. He’s also at home tonight where he is hitting a shade under .370 so far this season.

Analysis: Hey, you remember Nelson? He’s one of my “always play this guy against this handedness” list. Today is that day against Daniel Norris, who allows a 1.09 HR/9 rate and a 32% hard contact rate to RH bats since 2015. I can’t say the ballpark is favorable, but Cruz’s power transcends ballpark dimensions. It also helps that Cruz is hot at the plate with hits in 10 of his last 11 games.

Analysis: Buster Posey and Nelson Cruz vs. a lefty tonight? YES! Oh and Trout, too. Anyway, Alex Wood is not a good pitcher and I will never believe that he is. Posey already has 2 doubles and 3 RBIs against him in 7 ABs in his career and Posey is starting to heat up himself. with 10 hits in his last 6 games. He hasn’t done much with those hits, but to say he’s overdue for a homerun is an understatement. He hasn’t homered since April 9th and for someone who destroys lefties, this is a great spot for Posey to tee off. Wood has allowed a .325 wOBA and a 30% hard contact rate to RH bats since 2015.

Analysis: OK, this isn’t a hedge play with Cahill. This is a “JAKE LAMB IS ONLY $3,900 AGAINST TREVOR CAHILL?” play. Lamb mashes RH pitching with a .380 wOBA, a .283 ISO and a 42% hard contact rate in his career. This is a great ballpark for him to tee off in, and he’s got 9 hits in his last 9 games. I am still trying to talk myself off of Cahill…