Tonight we have a full complement of games to sift through as April comes to a close.
We have some solid aces on the mount tonight, including Max Scherzer and Jake Arrieta, but we also have a slew of gas cans to look into.
The most intriguing game on paper is the Rockies visiting Arizona, which is basically Coors Field, Jr. But will it fire on all cylinders? The Diamondbacks got to Jered Weaver last night, but it finished more like a bottle rocket than an artillery shell.
The Value Index is free today, so that’s great for you. Hopefully tonight’s picks help you build that bankroll.
Enough chit chat, let’s roll!
Charlie Morton – SP – Houston Astros – $6,800
Analysis: So we have a slate with some stud pitchers, but a lot of expensive hitters in great matchups. So whatever strategy you want to attack tonight, you are going to need a value pitcher. So here we have Charlie Morton, a guy that I have started to come around on this year. He currently owns an 8.14 K/9 rate, but by looking at his box score, you wouldn’t realize how high it is because he has run into some bad luck. I am going to venture on the side of Morton being a pitcher that pitches well at home, and tonight he gets a scrappy A’s team that isn’t very good. I don’t always like to pick on the A’s in the past, but this squad is pretty bad so far. They are striking out at a bigger clip against RH pitching, a 23.9% clip. They are 22nd in wOBA against RHs and sport a paltry .228 batting average. Now if you look at Morton’s current numbers, you will see RH bats have been eating him up. I think that’s a proponent of BABIP and that is always going to come back to the mean. Morton’s velocity is up this year and he’s a different pitcher. In his career, Morton has really been tough on RH bats and this year should be no different. The A’s throw out a lot of RH bats, so this is a perfect spot for Morton to have some Good Luck Chuck go his way.
Welington Castillo – C – Baltimore Orioles – $3,600
Analysis: Zero home runs. None. The Beef has no long balls this year. But what a perfect situation for him to erase that zero. He gets to play in Yankee Stadium, he’s facing the Yankee’s pork belly, C.C. Sabathia, a lefty. Beef makes bacon out of lefties with a .367 wOBA, a .243 ISO and a 53% hard contact rate against lefties since 2015. He looks to be heating up with four hits in his last two games, including two doubles. Sabathia has given up 1.40 HR/9 to RH bats since 2015. I am calling my shot with him tonight.
Charlie Blackmon – OF – Colorado Rockies – $5,000
Analysis: If you have been a follower for awhile, you know I am Team BvP. Sometimes it pays off in the right situations and sometimes it doesn’t. I don’t always think you can take the numbers at face value and have to try and figure out why the numbers are the way they are. When it comes to BvP, I like to take ballpark, wOBA, wRC+, handedness, hot streaks and sometimes weather when justifying BvP. One instance where I love BvP is when a lefty destroys a lefty, and tonight we have that night, so let me justify it for you. Against Robbie Ray (tonight’s pitcher for the D-Backs), Blackmon is 11-for-19 with a triple, two home runs, six RBI, two walks and THREE stolen bases. Blackmon gets to face Ray in Chase Field, a hitter’s dream, Ray gives up more than 30% hard contact to lefties since 2015, and since 2016, Blackmon has been destroying lefties with a .369 wOBA, a .313 average and 6 HRs. The steals are what sealed it for me though. While Blackmon’s power goes down a bit against a lefty, he can make up for it on the basepaths against Ray, who can’t seem to hold him on. Lefty/Lefty matchups usually scare me, but I love them when they fit together like this.
Edwin Encarnacion – 1B – Cleveland Indians – $4,600
Analysis: Speaking of lack of home runs, E5 has yet to hit one off a lefty this season. Progressive Field is a neutral park for RH power, but E5 has lots of power regardless of the size of the ballpark. Since 2016, E5 owns a .385 wOBA and a .275 ISO. Some of that might be inflated due to the ballpark he played, but hitting lefties isn’t usually a problem for E5, who faces Seattle’s Little Mermaid, who owns a .345 wOBA and a 2.81 HR/9 rate so far this season. The Indians are in a sneaky good spot tonight that has a high total.
Kole Calhoun – OF – Los Angeles Angels – $4,000
Analysis: I watched Nick Martinez pitch against the Kansas City Royals last Saturday. I thought he did a decent job of keeping the ball down against a hapless Royals team. He had a no-hitter into the sixth inning and then kind of just fell off the rocker with his confidence. Once you can shake his confidence, teams can blow him up, especially lefties. Here’s another instance of BvP being a solid confirmation of the numbers I see in this matchup. Since 2016, Martinez has a .400 wOBA against lefties…yes, a .400 wOBA, a 2.37 HR/9 rate and a 35.5% hard contact rate allowed to lefties. Kole Calhoun is a lefty. Calhoun is 8-for-14 with two doubles, a home run, three RBIs and a walk. This is a ballpark upgrade for the Angels in a game that features a high total. Calhoun and Trout are a great pairing tonight.
