I am not a big fan of these split slates during the week. On top of that we continue to have games starting around 5-5:30 p.m. central, limiting our exposure to certain teams for big tournaments.
I suppose we have to make do with what we are given, so for the sake of time, we will concentrate only on the main evening slate for today’s edition of the Index.
Tuesday was an extremely tough slate and much like the Monday slate, you didn’t need a huge score to cash in tournaments. Even that was difficult for this old chap. I went all in on Greinke, Soto, Brantley and Kike.
It happens.
What?
Shit.
Thanks, Forrest.
Baseball is a marathon not a sprint and we have to be able to push aside the ugly times so as to not effect our process for future slates. And here we are, on to the next, a small, 5-game slate.
PITCHERS
Miles Mikolas – at Pittsburgh Pirates – $7,200
Analysis: On this slate, the top pitching environment comes from PNC Park in Pittsburgh where Mikolas takes on a bad offense in a bad ballpark. In 2018, Mikolas was great at neutralizing offensive production, compiling a .309 wOBA vs. lefties and .223 wOBA against lefties. His strikeout rate was below a K-per-inning rate, but he induces lots of soft contact and ground balls. Collectively, the Pirates currently own a .153 wOBA and are middle of the pack in wOBA vs. RH pitchers so far this season. They own a mild hard contact rate so far and also have put the ball on the ground a lot. While the strikeouts may not be where we would like them to be, there is a great chance we see some innings distance that could allow for a safe, high floor at this price.
Jameson Taillon – vs. St. Louis Cardinals – $7,900
Analysis: This recommendation is a little more scary considering the hot start of the Cardinals’ offense. But they have played the majority of their games in hitter-friendly environments and will see one of the better pitchers they will have faced up to this point. Taillon can be a strikeout machine and draws the start at home where he allowed a 3.25 ERA last season and struck out well over one batter per inning on average. The Cardinals have some pop, but they have also struck out nearly 22% of the time this season to RH pitching.
HITTERS
Kike Hernandez – 2B – Los Angeles Dodgers – $4,200
Analysis: Am I stuck in my old ways, have a bad habit I need to break, or do I just trust Kike to come through for us against lefties? It’s mostly option three, but he draws another beautiful matchup in starting pitcher Derek Holland. The Dutch Oven allowed a .335 wOBA to righties in 2018 to go along with a 45% hard contact rate and 1.34 HR/9 rate. For his career, Kike owns a .360 wOBA with a .227 ISO and 36% hard contact rate against southpaws. I suspect he will be leading off, too. Oh and he’s just 4-for-7 with 2 doubles, a home run and 3 walks against Holland in his career.
Justin Turner – 3B – Los Angeles Dodgers – $4,400
Analysis: See Hernandez, Kike for Holland analysis. As for Turner, his career numbers against lefties look like this: .352 wOBA, .170 ISO and 35% hard contact rate. But since 2017, Turner owns a whopping .461 wOBA, .287 ISO and 46% hard contact rate against lefties. Turner will hit out of the two hole and is just two of many Dodgers you should be stacking tonight.
A.J. Pollock – OF – Los Angeles Dodgers – $4,600
Analysis: See Hernandez, Kike and Turner, Justin, and add Pollock to your list of players in your pool today. He makes the list because of his discount in price to the big boys, but he’s been a power monster against lefties since 2017, sporting a .333 wOBA, .246 ISO and 38% hard contact rate. He should be hitting in the middle of the order and can easily be paired with the other Dodger names on this list and Cody Bellinger.
George Springer – OF – Houston Astros – $4,900
Analysis: Dude is off to a hot start to the season and he draws another great matchup from the lead off spot of the road team tonight. He and the Astros draw Mike Minor, a lefty atop the Rangers’ rotation who is due for some regression this season. In 2018, Minor was solid against right-handed bats, but it turns out he was a little lucky also, collecting a 4.83 xFIP and .252 BABIP while giving up 37% hard contact and 1.33 HR/9. Minor is a fly ball pitcher in a hitter’s park and Springer is a fly ball hitter. Two-plus-two equals four, right?
Yuli Gurriel – 1B – Houston Astros – $4,200
Analysis: Quickly becoming one of my favorite sneaky bats of the season when facing a lefty. Gurriel is the Astro that gets left behind in stacks because everyone loves to go to the big names (Altuve, Springer, Bregman, Correa and now Brantley). Gurriel sports solid numbers against lefties, but he’s 8th on his team in wOBA vs. lefties since 2017. And it’s not a low number. He has a .343 wOBA with a .166 ISO and 36% hard hit rate against southpaws. But in 2018, he moved up to third overall in wOBA vs. lefties, sporting a whopping .382 wOBA and .188 ISO against.
Andrew Benintendi – OF – Boston Red Sox – $4,800
Analysis: Ugh, when do we get the Red Sox in Fenway? This road trip for their offense to start the season has been brutal. And while I want to chance not playing any of them because of their lack of pop so far, I can’t ignore the matchup they get tonight as they take on Marco Estrada, an extreme flyball pitcher who likely gets a boost because of the power-eating nature of the Coliseum in Oakland. But I’ll ride the wave again and go to Benintendi from the lead-off position (also a mistake, but that’s another topic for another day maybe). Estrada was extremely lucky against lefties last season with a 5.56 xFIP and .239 BABIP. Lucky isn’t really the right term because he got lit up by lefties to the tune of a .322 wOBA and 1.54 HR/9 rate. For his career against Estrada, Benintendi is 7-for-20 with 3 doubles, 3 RBIs, 1 walk and a steal.
Kyle Schwarber – OF – Chicago Cubs – $4,600
Analysis: SunTrust Park is built for lefty power. It just so happens the Braves welcome in the Cubs once again, allowing a pitcher who has been eaten alive by lefties in his career take the mound tonight. Teheran has actually done quite well against lefties from the Cubs so far, but Schwarber has his number early one with a 3-for-7 line with 1 double and a walk. Teheran’s numbers against lefties last season look decent, but are juiced with some lucky bounces. Against lefties, Teheran owned a 3.46 ERA, but had an xFIP as fun as an open wound of 5.96 and a .226 BABIP with a 38% hard contact rate and 1.19 HR/9. There’s no way those numbers sustain over the course of this season. Let’s hope it starts tonight as the Cubs come into town.
