DraftKings finally is listening to its clientele.
I’ve griped a few times about their new pricing algorithms for bats. Rarely could you find a player to roster under $3,200, sometimes $3,400 or $3,500. Catchers were way overpriced, too.
But now they have changed their pricing and things are back to some type of normalcy. That won’t make me change my format back to just ol’ DK price points.
Today’s edition won’t feature the new format again, but I should’ve waited one more week to roll that out considering the goings on around my parts this week with Red Raider basketball, my birthday and Dirk’s last game, all evening distractions that haven’t allowed me to put as much time into research, writing and formatting.
Today is another one of those days. If I plan on getting back to the new routine, I’ll have to have this done Sunday afternoon because Sunday night…
Winter is Coming.
Good luck today and happy #GameofThrones day Sunday!
PITCHERS
Eduardo Rodriguez – vs. Baltimore Orioles – $8,300
Analysis: People are going to shy away from E-Rod today as he makes his first home start of the season against the lowly Baltimore Orioles. Yes, Fenway is friendly to right-handed bats, but the Orioles’ lineup is far from daunting. E-Rod has faced a red-hot Mariners squad and a totally legit Oakland A’s team that decimates LHP. This matchup is a little less threatening as Baltimore currently is 18th in wOBA against lefties and strikes out 24.7% of the time.
Chris Paddack – at Arizona Diamondbacks – $8,100
Analysis: Finally pricing I can get behind for Mr. Paddack. The Diamondbacks have been hot out of the gate, but things have seemed to cool off these past few games. Ideally, I don’t think it’s a surprise they have cooled since playing at home. Against righties, the D-Backs are striking out at a 20% clip, not bad, not great, but the sample size is small and Paddack has double-digit K upside – striking out righties at a 9.8 K/9 and lefties are fanning at a 12.60 K/9.
Brad Keller – vs. Cleveland Indians – $7,800
Analysis: The Indians have more than sputtered to begin the season. This play is strictly trying to exploit the matchup while we still can. The Indians are 29th in team wOBA, own a weakly .138 ISO and are striking out 27% of the time, one of the better strikeout percentages on the slate for pitchers. Keller gets the homecooking, in a big ball park, against a bad offensive team and will look to move his quality starts to four straight. Not a bad way to spend $7,800.
HITTERS
Jurickson Profar – 2B – Oakland Athletics – $3,100
Analysis: The A’s are one of the best offensive teams on the slate. They draw the Rangers on the road tonight and get to tee-up on Drew Smyly, who is already allowing a .459 wOBA, 57% hard hit rate and 3.38 HR/9 rate. Those numbers are unsustainable for Smyly, but for now, it’s early and he’s still trying to figure things out. The A’s are are 12th in team wOBA against RH pitching, but they are much better than that over the course of the past 3 seasons. So now to Profar – revenge narrative, back in Texas, facing a lefty and really starting to stroke the ball. Yes, it’s another recommendation for Profar, from me, but it’s starting to pay off big.
Tim Anderson – SS – Chicago White Sox – $3,800
Analysis: I love the White Sox today as they travel to New Yankee Stadium to take on the Bronx Bombers. They draw starting lefty J.A. Crap. Sorry, that’s mean. I mean J.A. Happ. So far, Happ’s been a Happ-hazard pitcher to start the season, giving up a .454 wOBA with a 6.00 xFIP with only a .294 BABIP and a 4.5 HR/9! Many of the White Sox aren’t too cheap, but Anderson is fair at his position that features a high-priced Tim Beckham and Marcus Semien who are in great spots. Anderson is second on the team in wOBA against lefties, hitting with a .593 wOBA, and he’s 6-for-10 with a triple and a home run off Happ in his career.
Ryon Healy – 3B – Seattle Mariners – $3,700
Analysis: The Mariners are one of the top offenses on this slate, and they are priced like it. They have won all but 2 games this season and have outright destroyed teams. E-5, Haniger, Tim Beckham and Domingo Santana are right-handed bats all priced over $4K on FanDuel. But they draw a glorious matchup against my arch-nemesis Wade Miley, who has yet to give up a run or home run to a RH bat. That’s going to change today. Healy is a lefty-masher, and is already destroying enemy southpaws to the tune of a .446 wOBA and .300 ISO with a 57% hard hit rate.
Eloy Jimenez – OF – Chicago White Sox – $2,000
Analysis: One of these days Eloy is going to break out and I want to be on that while he’s cheap. A preseason favorite to win rookie of the year, Eloy has the power and upside to pay off this minimum price tag in Yankee Stadium against a struggling lefty. He has no numbers against lefties worth reporting on, but that’s because they aren’t there yet. He has a very low BABIP against lefties, so there’s that.
Andrew Benintendi – OF – Boston Red Sox – $3,600
Analysis: David Hess was one of the best DFS pitchers to beat up on and so far, this chump has come out guns blazing so far to start the year. He could be improved and better than I thought, or he could be who we thought he was – a bad RH pitcher. He draws a tough matchup against the Red Sox, who are coming off a late-inning win over the Orioles Thursday night. Betts, Martinez and even Mitch Moreland are priced up over $4K, but the Super Nintendo gets a discount in the outfield. Against lefties this season, Hess owns a .125 BABIP and hasn’t given up a run to this side of the plate yet. With Benintendi leading off in a premium offense, I like for those numbers to change for Hess.
Eric Hosmer – 1B – San Diego Padres – $2,900
Analysis: Hey guys! Luke Weaver is up to his old ways – being bad at baseball and pitching, especially against lefties! Eric Hosmer is a lefty and a guy who can hit for power under $3K. Weaver’s stats against lefties to start the season – .505 wOBA, 7.04 xFIP, 66% hard contact and 3.00 HR/9 rate. Hosmer is 3-for-6 against him, too, for what it’s worth.
Kendrys Morales – 1B – Oakland Athletics – $2,200
Analysis: See Profar, Jurickson. All A’s are in play against Smyly and the Rangers’ bullpen. Morales can hit from both sides of the plate and draws one of the best hitting environments in all of baseball at a near minimum price tag.
Jose Ramirez – 3B – Cleveland Indians – $3,400
Analysis: This price jumped out at me. I know he and the Indians have been bad, but at some point, things are going to turn around and that’s when we want to be on a guy, who is normally $4.5K or better most days. He’s really struggled since last season, but I still believe in the talent, and I still have a huge heart for him from one of my biggest hits ever a few years back. While I like Keller, I also like Ramirez, who is at a ridiculously cheap price point considering his upside potential.
Chad Pinder – OF – Oakland A’s – $3,100
Analysis: Pinder is fourth on the team in wOBA against lefties, batting a ridiculous .422 wOBA with a .238 ISO and 55% hard hit rate. I’ve talked about Profar and Smyly, but all A’s are in play, top to bottom and choosing between them all is going to be really hard. I think I like the A’s the most on this entire slate. Stack up, stack down and all the way around!
Jake Bauers – OF – Cleveland Indians – $2,600
Analysis: The Indians made a trade for him to help boost their offense. It hasn’t paid off yet, but it’s early and Bauers is starting to show signs of life. He’s reached base in 9 straight games with either a walk or a hit, but he’s finally got that first home run off his back and is starting to score some runs as the offense starts to come out of its funk. He will hit in the middle of the order and is hitting on the road. Despite a pitcher-friendly enviornment, Bauers is a great cheap GPP option that will certainly be low owned.
Jose Rondon – 2B – Chicago White Sox – $2,600
Analysis: If there’s another player at 2B that I really like, it’s Rondon, who is the top hitter on the White Sox right now against left-handed pitching. While not sustainable over the course of the season, Rondon owns a .692 wOBA, .556 ISO and 50% hard contact. See other White Sox players here for reasons not to play Happ.
