Happy Friday everyone!
Hope you have had a great week of DFS and are ready to add the cherry on top for the week as the MLB season rolls on tonight with a full 13-game slate.
There’s a lot of information and stats to sift through, but the main thing to pay attention for tonight is the weather. There’s some rainy games and some spots where wind might be a factor. Add in Coors, too, so some tough decisions are gong to have to be made.
Below are my favorite value plays using FanDuel pricing. If you haven’t subscribed yet, please try us out with our free 7-day trial to get access to all contest for a week without risk!
Away we go, and good luck today!
PITCHERS
Anthony DeSclafani – at San Diego Padres – $ – 6,300
Analysis: Touki Toussaint, assuming weather holds up in Cleveland, will be a popular play in DFS today as an SP2. He’s a bit too expensive for someone unproven on FanDuel. But Anthony DeSclafani is a perfect fit tonight with strikeout upside at a cheap price to fit in Coors bats, or really do anything you want. San Diego has Manny Machado, but this lineup isn’t all that different from last year outside of him. They are 22nd in wOBA against righties after letting Tanner Roark have his way with them. Now we get a higher strikeout upside at a shade over $6K. ADS (for short) is striking out batters from the left side 12.6 K/9 with a 9.72 K/9 against righties. ADS certainly has his struggles with lefties, but the Padres don’t have a lot of those. It’s a bit risky, but on FanDuel, we on;t have to worry about ER, so if ADS can strike out 6-7 bats, go 6 and get a QS, he’s a smash on FD.
HITTERS
Jedd Gyorko – 2B – St. Louis Cardinals – $2,100
Analysis: I am going to speculate a bit here and suggest that Kolten Wong is likely to sit here for platoon lefty smasher Jedd Gyorko, who is dirt cheap against Jason Vargas, a southpaw road dog who pitches more like a billy goat than a Billy Gunn. Against RH bats this season alone, Vargas owns a 7.4 xFIP, .537 wOBA and 65% hard contact with a 3.6 HR/9 rate. Since 2018, Gyorko is second on the team in wOBA against lefties at .396 with a .200+ ISO and 44% hard hit rate.
Mookie Betts – OF – Boston Red Sox – $3,800
Analysis: How the mighty have fallen. Mookie Betts and the Red Sox have been awful to start the season. I still have faith though that the defending champs can turn things around. This play is strictly a price point play as a leadoff bat on the road likely going to get 5 ABs. The Rays are throwing a bullpen game with Ryne Stanek opening the game followed by, well, no one really knows at this point. Anyway, there’s not much else to say because Mookie has been so bad. But we know the upside is there and now that he’s under $4K, we have a tough decision to make.
Robinson Cano – 2B – New York Mets – $2,900
Analysis: Lots of solid second basemen on today’s slate, especially if Gyorko does crack the lineup. Whitt Merrifield is a great option at the top, but in the middle we have Cano, at an amazing sub-$3K pricepoint facing the ghost of Adam Wainwright on the road. So far this season, Wainwright is posting a .398 wOBA with a 5.59 xFIP, a .222 BABIP, 35% hard hit rate and a 3.18 HR/9 against lefties this season. That low BABIP also is favorable for lefties and Cano tonight. Cano hasn’t really had that break out game yet either. He’s got some pop so far supported by his .196 ISO and 46% hard hit rate against righties. His wOBA is only at .260 with a .205 BABIP, so eventually those hard hits are going to turn into extra bases and home runs.
Charlie Blackmon – OF – Colorado Rockies – $3,500
Analysis: David Dahl is more expensive today on FanDuel than Charlie Blackmon, the chalk of the night on Thursday. But this is OK, it’s still early on in April and while Blackmon hasn’t been his old self, he gets a chance to build on his minimal success from Thursday night. Remember, this is a team that plays better at Coors, and always has. Blackmon is no different. The Rox haven’t had a ton of home games this season. Anyway, the Rockies draw Vince Velasquez who has had career struggles with lefties and now he has to pitch in Coors. Since 2017, Velasquez has the fourth highest wOBA to lefties out of every pitcher on this slate at .370 to go along with a 4.56 xFIP, 35% hard hit rate and 1.5 HR/9 rate.
George Springer – OF – Houston Astros – $4,200
Analysis: Is Drew Smyly pitching against the Astros at Rangers Ballpark? Yes. Ok, then you play George Springer who might be $1K too cheap on FanDuel today. The Smyly project has been a disaster to start the season as his numbers are more frown-like against RH bats, allowing a 5.61 xFIP, .378 wOBA, 58% hard hit rate and allowing 1.74 HR/9. I know the sample size is small, but here’s Springers numbers in his career against Smyly – 3-for-7 with a double, 2 home runs, 2 walks and 2 steals. Springer doesn’t even steal bases that much and he has two against Smyly in 7 ABs.
Nicholas Castellanos – OF – Detroit Tigers – $2,700
Analysis: The Tigers have been bad, but we have another price point that is just too cheap for a guy whose production will eventually come around. The Tigers take on lefty Carlos Rodon tonight at home, and the Tigers really haven’t faced a ton of lefties this season, so their numbers aren’t exactly where they will be later on in the year. Since 2018, Castellanos owns a .419 wOBA, .185 ISO and 47% hard hit rate against lefties. In his career, he is 3-for-5 with a triple, 2 RBIs and a walk. Considering the lack of lefties faced, this is an excellent time to hop on to Casty at this insanely low price.
Mike Ford – 1B – New York Yankees – $2,000
Analysis: The rookie call up cracked the lineup yesterday against KC’s Homer Bailey, who continues to defy logic as a major league pitcher. Ford got his inaugural game out of the way and hopefully the lefty will crack the lineup once again against another arm that struggles with lefty power bats in Jakob Junis. Against lefties this season, Junis has allowed a .369 wOBA, 41% hard contact and a 1.5 HR/9 rate. I think Junis is a sneaky GPP play considering all of the strikeouts and struggles the Yankees have had this year, but I think Ford, at the minimum price, is an awesome punt play if you want to save salary to fit in big bats.
Yonder Alons0 – 1B – Chicago White Sox – $2,900
Analysis: In Texas, we say thinks like “over yonder” when someone asks where something is. It’s ridiculous really, and then to have a guy named Yonder in the majors, always throws me off when I see, say or type his name because that Texas saying always comes to mind. Anyway, now that you have that ridiculous back story, why don’t I tell you why you should play Yonder tonight against Jordan Zimmermann, who has too many M’s and N’s in his name. Zimmermann is awful against lefties, allowing a .359 wOBA and 2.08 HR/9. Yonder is the BvP play of the day despite the bigger ballpark. Against Zimm in his career, Alonso is 7-for-18 with 2 doubles, FOUR home runs and 7 RBIs. Yonder has had some bad luck against righties to start the season, supported by his .192 BABIP. But this is the perfect to turn all of that around.
