Welcome in to an end-of-the-week Value Index.
We have 14 games tonight with a lot of studs and some stacks that good go overlooked.
Upon looking at this slate, it appears the Angels/Red Sox will have the best chance for ownership tonight. We have a lot of games, a lot of information, so this intro is short again.
Remember the tables below are for qualified hitters and pitchers.
So let’s get down to brass tax!
Pitcher xFIP vs. LH
1. Sean Reid-Foley – 7.50
2. Drew Smyly – 6.54
3. Julio Teheran – 5.84
4. Tyler Beede – 5.67
5. Spencer Turnbull – 5.47
6. Cal Quantrill – 5.42
7. Marco Gonzales – 5.32
8. Dakota Hudson – 5.20
9. Chris Archer – 5.19
10. Brian Johnson – 5.17
11. Jalen Beeks – 5.16
12. Trevor Bauer – 5.08
Pitcher xFIP vs. RH
1. Brian Johnson – 5.78
2. Jaime Barria – 5.77
3. Kyle Freeland – 5.58
4. Sean Reid-Foley – 5.56
5. Drew Smyly – 5.26
6. J.A. Happ – 5.08
7. Marco Gonzales – 4.98
8. Jalen Beeks – 4.89
Hitter wOBA vs. LH
1. Manny Machado – Padres – .497
2. Ozzie Albies – Braves – .451
3. Cody Bellinger – Dodgers – .438
4. Mike Trout – Angels – .417
5. Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. – Blue Jays – .415
6. Hunter Renfroe – Padres – .398
7. Ronald Acuna, Jr. – Braves – .397
8. Christian Yelich – Brewers – .389
9. Travis D’Arnaud – Rays – .382
10. Hunter Pence – Rangers – .381
Hitter wOBA vs. RH
1. Rafael Devers – Red Sox – .411
2. Bryan Reynolds – Pirates – .408
3. Anthony Rendon – Nationals – .407
4. Nelson Cruz – Twins – .405
5. Charlie Blackmon – Rockies – .402
6. Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox – .400
7. Jeff McNeil – Mets – .398
8. Josh Bell – Pirates – .397
9. Michael Conforto – Mets – .396
10. Juan Soto – Nationals – .395
PITCHERS
Drew Smyly – at San Francisco Giants – $7,600
Analysis: Oh boy. Am I really recommending Drew Smyly today? He has been our DFS pinata this year, but since being traded away, he’s put together some solid outings and has struck out 7, 5 and 8 batters. Today he gets a favorable ballpark and a favorable matchup against the Giants in San Francisco. The Giants are still bottom of the barrel in team wOBA at 28 overall and are striking out at a 24% clip. Smyly’s price is inflated for his past performances, but if he’s going to keep up the high K rates, he’s still worth this price tag on FanDuel with QS and W upside.
HITTERS
Mike Trout – OF – Angels – $4,800
Analysis: Trout against a bad lefty? Yes! Yes! Yes! The Angels draw Brian Johnson in Fenway, giving Trout an even better benefit with the Green Monster, eater of worlds at his advantage. He’s on the road and hits at the top of the order, so he should see plenty of ABs. Johnson is the worst pitcher against righties on this slate with a .507 wOBA, 41% hard hit rate allowed, and a 2.70 HR/9.
Mookie Betts – OF – Boston Red Sox – $4,300
Analysis: Second on the list of bad pitchers against righties is Jaime Barria, the Angels projected starter for tonight. Betts has destroyed RH pitching this season to the tune of a .387 wOBA, a .225 ISO and a 42% hard hit rate. Barria against righties has not fared well as he owns a .408 wOBA and 2.59 HR/9.
Josh Bell – 1B – Pittsburgh Pirates – $3,600
Analysis: Something is definitely going on with Josh Bell. He has been out of the lineup quite a bit this week. Maybe it was the home run derby, maybe it’s his recent struggles, maybe it’s the Pirates being way, way out of it and are trying to keep him healthy. But he keeps getting cheaper and cheaper and hopefully he’s in the lineup tonight against Dakota Hudson, who gets his lunch eaten by lefty bats. Hudson is allowing a .384 wOBA, a 45% hard hit rate and a 1.86 HR/9. Bell against RH pitching has been very successful as he owns a .397 wOBA with a .313 ISO and a 47% hard hit rate.
Luis Urias – 2B – San Diego Padres – $2,200
Analysis: Urias is my new Jurickson Profar. I have been using him as much as possible and he has yet to breakout. He’s super cheap and has speed and power upside that has yet to translate to the majors. The Padres get Kyle Freeland at home, and Freeland has not been good this year. Against righties, Freeland has allowed a .391 wOBA, a 45% hard hit rate and a 2.60 HR/9.
Manny Machado – 3B – San Diego Padres – $3,900
Analysis: You know Freeland is bad, so the Padres’ stack is in order. Machado is atop the list for overall wOBA against left-handed pitching with a .497 wOBA, a .405 ISO and a 52% hard hit rate.
Hunter Renfroe – OF – San Diego Padres – $3,000
Analysis: Rounding out the cheaper Padres for this stack is Hunter Renfroe, who continues to smash lefties in his career. Against southpaws, Renfroe owns a .398 wOBA with a whopping .452 and 52% hard hit rate. The ball flys when Freeland pitches, and Renfroe has made it fly once in 15 ABs along with 2 hits against Freeland.
