Man, Jason Vargas is really annoying.
The old man continues to make himself look “good” and avoid the regression bug. Stacking against him is so frustrating. I’ll keep doing it because I am balls deep in stacking against him this year and I’d like that to pay off at some point.
But he won’t blow up against a team like the Yankees or in Coors, it will be a road game in Miami against the Marlins, a team like that.
Anyway, it’s Friday and we have 14 games on the slate today. Pitching is so-so, even at the top with Jacob deGrom, his matchup against Atlanta is less than desirable at that price tag.
But paying down for pitching hasn’t been a bad move in 2019 DFS baseball, and that’s where the Value Index comes into play. Below are the xFIP and wOBA tables for players on today’s slate. Remember, the wOBA table is for qualified at-bats ONLY. Enjoy and good luck!
Pitcher xFIP vs. LH
1. Odrisamer Despaigner – 8.34
2. Jhoulys Chacin – 6.47
3. Elieser Hernandez – 6.47
4. Danny Duffy – 5.99
5. Antonio Senzatela – 5.77
6. Daniel Norris – 5.69
7. Eric Lauer – 5.47
8. Chris Archer – 5.20
9. Mike Fiers – 5.10
10. Anibal Sanchez – 4.94
11. Michael Wacha – 4.85
12. Merrill Kelly – 4.78
Pitcher xFIP vs. RH
1. Odrisamer Despaigne – 6.43
2. Mike Fiers – 5.97
3. John Means – 5.53
4. Anibal Sanchez – 5.01
5. Danny Duffy – 4.95
6. Michael Wacha – 4.89
7. Vince Velasquez – 4.89
8. Jhoulys Chacin – 4.85
9. Shaun Anderson – 4.81
10. Wade Miley – 4.57
Top-10 wOBA vs. LH
.1. Jordan Luplow – Cleveland – .458
2. Ian Desmond – Colorado – .451
3. Brian Dozier – Washington – .447
4. Anthony Rendon – Washington – .440
5. Howie Kendrick – Washington – .439
6. Nolan Arenado – Colorado – .438
7. Roberto Perez – Cleveland – .427
8. Domino Santana – Seattle – .392
9. Juan Soto – Washington – .391
10. Victor Robles – Washington – .389
Top-10 wOBA vs. RH
1. Christian Yelich – Milwaukee – .484
2. Cody Bellinger – Los Angeles – .460
3. Mike Trout – Los Angeles – .455
4. Josh Bell – Pittsburgh – .421
5. Freddie Freeman – Atlanta – .419
6. Austin Meadows – Tampa Bay – .408
7. Anthony Rizzo – Chicago – .407
8. Jorge Polanco – Minnesota – .407
9. Willson Contreras – Chicago – .401
10. Jeff McNeil – New York – .393
PITCHERS
Vince Velasquez – at Miami Marlins – $7,300
Analysis: I can’t stay away from attacking the Marlins despite my hatred for doing so. Luckily, the soft-hitting, BABIP Marlins aren’t as dangerous for pitchers on FanDuel, so that’s why I am going to Vince Velasquez, who gets another shot at hanging around the Phillies rotation. VV has had some struggles this year, but he still has an elite strikeout rate to righties, which this Marlins lineup is full of. Versus RH bats, Velasquez owns an 11.93 K/9. And even though he’s allowing 52% hard contact and a 2.20 HR/9 to righties this season, the Marlins’ ballpark and their lineup that owns a .132 ISO and 21% K-rate.
HITTERS
Brian Dozier – 2B – Washington Nationals – $2,500
Analysis: The Nationals, Twins and Astros are the top offensive stacks for me today outside of Coors. As you see in the wOBA table above vs. lefties, the Nationals hold 5 out of the top-10 qualified spots. And one of the top guys vs. lefties is former lefty masher who has made a return to glory in 2019 – Brian Dozier, who owns that .447 wOBA with a .333 ISO against lefties. The Nationals are facing Daniel Norris in Detroit tonight, and he should see a RH-heavy lineup. Against righties, Norris owns a .338 wOBA with a 40% hard hit rate and a 1.49 HR/9. He hasn’t been bad, but the Nationals are hitting really well right now and so I think Norris is in a heap of trouble.
