The last Opening Day of the artist formerly known as the Ballpark in Arlington has come and gone.
And the Rangers got pounded, in what is now called Globe Life Park.
The Rangers play their swan song in their 25-year-old stadium and will move across the parking lot into their new digs in 2020.
It’s too bad the Rangers are going to deface their old friend by putting up a stinker of a season. A 12-2 drubbing Thursday just shows you what type of team Texas will be.
But they don’t play today. We basically have Round 2 of Opening Day on today’s 8-game slate as all teams that are on today’s slate played Thursday. So let’s get to it!
Pitchers
Joey Lucchesi – San Diego Padres – $7,900
Analysis: The Giants looked awful against Eric Lauer on Opening Day, and unfortunately for them, they get another lefty starter to swing and miss to in Lucchesi, who owns an 11.28 K/9 versus lefties and a 9.72 K/9 against righties. San Diego’s ballpark and Lucchesi’s home/road splits plus his newly improved lineup behind him make Lucchessi one of the better value pitchers on the board. Oh and he’s facing Derek Holland, but we will get to him shortly.
Matt Shoemaker – Toronto Blue Jays – $6,900
Analysis: Shoe is back in our lives and if you paid attention to the Tigers/Blue Jays game yesterday, you either saw dominant pitching or some really piss poor hitting. I’ll take the latter, and that’s why Shoemaker is likely the value haymaker on the mound tonight. The current Tigers combined for a 23.4% strikeout rate in 2018, owned a mediocre wOBA of .316 and a 40% ground ball rate. Shoemaker’s season was cut short last year, but in that short time frame he owned an 8.27 K/9 rate against righties and an 11.05 K/9 against lefties. The Ks should be there, but he has to keep the ball in the park to pay off.
Hitters
Justin Bour – 1B – Los Angeles Angels – $3,600
Analysis: The Angels are one of my favorite teams to target today. They let everyone down as Mike Fiers spared us all to death once again. Now the Angels get another spare in flyball filibuster Marco Estrada, who finally had an awful season last year finishing with 5.98 xFIP against righties and a 5.56 xFIP against lefties (WITH A .239 BABIP!!!). Bour is a patient hitter, who walks and provides pop in his bat. He just didn’t quite have it Thursday, but after very high ownership, Bour’s will certainly come back down to earth today after yesterday’s failure.
Jurickson Profar – 2B – Oakland A’s – $3,800
Analysis: I will be going down with the ship this year with Jurickson Profar. He was one of my favorite late-round best ball picks, he was one of my keepers in season long and now he FINALLY gets a chance to play every day, something the Rangers never found a way to do. And I hope they pay for it. Profar is a super-utility player who flashed his pop and speed last year en route to his best season ever at the major league level. He showed why he was once of the top prospects in all of baseball. Yes, he’s had some injuries, but I have always felt the Rangers never pulled the trigger on Profar. They were too attached to players like Beltre, Andrus, Choo and others to give him a full-time spot, until last year. Anyway, Profar and the A’s get the ghost of Matt Harvey, who in his current form, is so-so against righties, but dreadful against lefties. In 2018, Harvey coughed up a .341 wOBA, 43% hard contact rate and a 1.94 HR/9 rate to lefties.
Mike Trout – OF – Los Angeles Angels – $5,700
Analysis: Ok. I had all of these reasons why Trout was the top overall play. Not that you would’ve needed anything to really every convince you to play Trout, but I wanted you to know Trout killed all of Mike Fiers pitch types, which also supported his outstanding BvP against the A’s starter. But then the program didn’t save my content and I lost all of that information and didn’t have the time to start all over. I said all of that to say this. Trout busted in day 1. He gets a fly ball pitcher today in Estrada, who allowed a .389 wOBA and 2.04 HR/9 rate to RH bats. You still play Trout today.
Franmil Reyes – OF – San Diego Padres – $4,200
Analysis: I am really considering and Angels/Padres stack in single-entry tournaments tomorrow. But to fit in the pitching I want, the Padres aren’t as cheap as I would like, so I am not sure if I want to pay up for them like they are playing in a hitter’s park. They are priced like they are taking on one of the worst pitchers in baseball, and they actually are. Ok, my hate for Derek Holland precedes the Giants, but Holland way overachieved last year and I blame that on the National League and the Giants’ ballpark. The Padres aren’t the Padres of old and one of their top bats against lefties last season was Franmil Reyes, who sported a .437 wOBA, .253 ISO and and 48% hard contact rate against them.
Fernando Tatis, Jr. – SS – San Diego Padres – $3,900
Analysis: The highly touted prospect earned a roster spot, earned a start on Opening Day, batted in the six-hole and promptly had his first two hits as a major leaguer, and at least one of those hits came against Bumgarner, one of the best pitchers in baseball earlier this decade. Hopefully Tatis cracks the lineup once against so he can tee off on Holland, too.
Manny Machado – 3B – San Diego Padres – $4,900
Analysis: Another pay and play here as Machado drew some double-digit ownership yesterday and ultimately failed, meaning people might be scared off of him some today (not a lot I would guess). Against lefties last season, Machado finished with a .383 wOBA and 37% hard contact rate with a .238 ISO. He’s going to play in the big ballpark in San Diego, but that doesn’t mean he can’t rough up a pitcher or two.
