I’ve always been a person who believes you should pay up for pitching in cash games in DFS.
This is my fourth season playing baseball DFS and I can honestly say that paying up for pitching has absolutely killed me.
Unless it’s just a play I can’t refuse, I’ve started to pay down for pitching and play all the bats I want.
Kershaw, who is on the evening slate today, is the one exception. I will always play him. But really, that’s it.
Tuesday night I faded Scherzer in cash. Murdered my cash games. Faded Stras last night, won almost all of them again.
Too many times this season I have paid up and they have not made value and killed me. Sure, you have to find safety in the lower priced options, but truthfully, if you can find them this season, I feel like that’s the way to go.
I’ve also had multiple instances where I had double-digit negative points from a pitcher and easily cashed my cash games.
My belief is a lot of this stems from the increased offense we have seen this season coupled with the lack of elite pitching options.
In the month of June, we have had 33 leadoff home runs, the most for one month in MLB history. That’s just one of the anomalies we have seen on the offensive side.
Also, if you haven’t noticed, the Vegas lines are high on more than just a couple of games per night. They are routinely 8-10 run projections in almost every contest.
Oh, and for Arcade Mode purposes, I rarely pay up for a pitcher, even Kershaw.
I am going to continue this practice for the time being. You are going to see that in my pitching picks today.
But we do have Kershaw tonight and I will be playing him in cash, but it’s Kershaw.
Today we have a split slate – 5 early games, 8 night games. There’s a lot to sift through, so let’s get after it!
Early – Favorite Stack – Indians
David Peralta – OF – Arizona Diamondbacks – $4,700
Analysis: I don’t think the Diamondbacks are clicking on all cylinders right now, but that’s OK. It’s not going to last for long and the lefties on this team get to face Lance Lynn tonight, who they should have wet dreams about tonight. We will have to see what kind of crap lineup the D-Backs put out there though. It’s possible that Lamb (see below) or Peralta sit for rest tonight. Let’s hope not because the lefties are what destroy Lynn, who allows a .356 wOBA, a 2.48 HR/9 rate and has a BABIP of .240. It’s a hitter’s park and Peralta has the BvP to back up his salary – 5-for-7 with a home run.
Jake Lamb – 3B – Arizona Diamondbacks – $5,000
Analysis: I’ve spouted off why I like the D-Backs against Lynn. Lamb murders RH pitching and he’s 2-for-4 with 2 walks against him in his career.
Jon Lester – SP – Chicago Cubs – $8,000
Analysis: I am really just price enforcing this play today. I am not playing Kluber against the Rangers and PvB suggests Lester is a decent play, especially since he is only $8K. Bryce Harper is always dangerous against a lefty, Zimmerman too, but that’s really it on this team. Rendon doesn’t scare me and neither does Michael Taylor or Turner, who has shown he doesn’t hit lefties well. I would guess Wieters, who has BvP against Lester, will sit out since it’s a day game. Anyway, Lester’s numbers against the current roster – .217 average, 1 HR, 7 walks and 37 Ks.
Miguel Cabrera – 1B – Detroit Tigers – $3,800
Analysis: Well holy shit, three days in a row? Yes, he’s under $4K and gets another plum matchup against some guy with the last name Junis. This season, Junis has allowed a .392 wOBA, 1.84 HR/9 rate and 44% hard contact against RH bats this season. Miggy has a home run in two straight games and looks to be crushing the ball once again. Miggy always hits well at home and I love the Tigers as a contrarian play to the Indians today after they burned people on Wednesday.
Stephen Piscotty – OF – St. Louis Cardinals – $3,900
Analysis: I don’t like Patrick Corbin, but I hate using the Cardinals. With that said, it’s a 5-game slate and this game has the highest projected total. We have to use some bats from this game I think. Piscotty will fly under the radar and has been a lefty masher in his career. Corbin allows a .371 wOBA, a 1.64 HR/9 rate and a 36% hard contact rate against RH bats this season.
Joe Ross – SP – Washington Nationals – $7,200
Analysis: The Cubs will be without Kris Bryant today and are already without Heyward, Schwarber and so one. It’s taken me awhile to come around, but the Cubs just aren’t that good. Ross is susceptible to getting drilled by lefties, so Rizzo and Happ are firmly in play here. He pitches much better at home and has the stuff to get a few Ks, too. We need value on this slate and I just don’t think I can go below Ross today.
Evening – Favorite Stack – Yankees
Dinelson Lamet – SP – San Diego Padres – $7,000
Analysis: What can you say about this kid that hasn’t already been said. He’s got the stuff to be a double-digit strikeout guy for a long time, he just has to get better about limiting the mistakes, especially to lefties, his kryptonite so far. But this is the Braves we are talking about here. While they don’t strike out a ton, we aren’t paying a premium for a pitcher against them either. Lamet gets the home ballpark factor in his favor as well. Inciarte, Markakis and Adams are the lefties to worry about, but are you really that worried? If so, hedge the Lamet play.
Jaime Garcia – SP – Atlanta Braves – $6,700
Analysis: On the other side of this game, we have lefty Jaime Garcia. I don’t love Jaime a lot of the time because he doesn’t offer a lot of K upside. But he gets a bump due to the matchup – the Padres – who are bottom of the barrel in team wOBA and K% against south paws. Garcia is an elite ground ball guy and is super cheap today. This game should be a low-scoring affair and I’ll gladly take both pitchers to load up on bats.
Kendrys Morales – 1B – Toronto Blue Jays – $3,700
Analysis: I don’t know if you are a BvP person, but if you look at the Blue Jays BvP against Ubaldo, tonight’s starter for the Orioles, I think people are going to be disappointed in the Blue Jays much like they were Wednesday. Morales is one of the few guys on the team that has had success against Jimenez, who has been dreadful this season. I could easily see the suck that Ubaldo has trump his BvP numbers against this team. This might be the ultimate BvP test today, but you don’t see me playing Ubaldo.
Billy Hamilton – OF – Cincinnati Reds – $4,000
Analysis: Hamilton had quite the day last night and now gets a great matchup against Jimmy Nelson, one he’s torched in his career. Hamilton is a great cash game play today and an even better arcade mode play if you get one of his 3 home runs he will hit this season. All it takes in this matchup is for Hamilton to get on base and it might be over. Against Nelson, Hamilton is 7-for-23 with a double, 4 walks and NINE steals. I’ll take it.
Justin Bour – 1B – Miami Marlins – $3,800
Analysis: Stanton and Ozuna have failed the past couple of days (so now that I’m off of them for my picks, you play them!). But now I am going the way of Justin Bour. I love Miggy today, but Bour is way too cheap against the Mets and starter Seth Lugo. Other Marlins are priced up, but Bour has come down. Lugo is an average pitcher with average numbers. He’s not a guy you want to always pick on, but he isn’t someone you want to roster either. Bour has decimated RH pitching this season to the tune of a .366 wOBA, a .244 ISO, a 47% hard contact rate and 12 home runs.
Didi Gregorious – SS – New York Yankees – $3,700
Analysis: I love the Yankees today, even if their lineup is a little depleted. James Shields sucks, plain and simple. Don’t get made when he’s cruising through 5 without giving up a run. He always seems to meltdown in that 3rd time through the order. Shields has been getting shelled by lefties this season, sporting a .404 wOBA, a 3.18 HR/9 and a .235 BABIP against this season. The Yankees are the Yankees and they don’t get shut out. The only team in the majors that hasn’t been shutout actually. Anyway, Gregorious is a cheap option who is a lefty and should be moved up in the order due to the lack of bodies on this team.
