Scooter Gennett was the easiest fade on the board Wednesday. Despite his BvP and relatively cheap price tag, I couldn’t pull the trigger, not even in cash games.
And while the fade yielded me no profit anyway, I at least feel victorious for not falling into such an obvious trap.
To the mice, did you want that cheese?
Funny stat I saw about Gennett Wednesday evening…
A day after hitting four home runs, Gennett grounded into a pair of double plays in the same game, the first time he’s done that in his career.
The chances were there, but I am so glad I didn’t pull the trigger.
Now I am just tilted over playing Dallas Keuchel and not being able to swap in time…
We have a split slate today, but we are going to focus solely on the night slate, where we have eight games to sift through, so let’s get to it.
Chris Davis – 1B – Baltimore Orioles – $4,600
Analysis: Fool me once, make me want to break a wooden bat over my knee. Fool me twice, and you’re dead to me. We have another plum matchup for Davis (just like last night against Chad Kuhl) and it’s in the form of Joe Ross. Now I like Joe Ross, but lefties dominate him to the tune of a .375 wOBA, a 1.34 HR/9 rate and a 35% hard contact rate dating back to last year. Davis has 10 home runs, a .273 ISO and a 41% hard contact rate against lefties this season and is a huge threat to make Ross’ day a nightmare.
Robinson Cano – 2B – Seattle Mariners – $4,700
Analysis: Robbie Cano is not someone I have been able to nail this season, but his BvP in this matchup plus the matchup in general is too good to pass up. Taking on Kyle Gibson, Cano has dominated this matchup, going 14-for-42 with 2 doubles, 6 homeruns, 12 RBIs and 3 walks. Gibson has been awful this season, especially to lefties, allowing a 39% hard contact rate, a .413 wOBA and a 1.66 HR/9 rate. Cano has a .383 wOBA, a .246 ISO and a 37% hard contact rate against RH bats this season. Everything feels like it fits together here.
Evan Longoria – 3B – Tampa Bay Rays – $3,600
Analysis: Weirdly, the Rays have been mediocre against lefties this season, but guys like Tim Beckham, Rickie Weeks and Derek Norris, normal lefty mashers, haven’t produced. Another name you can add to that list is Evan Longoria, who owns just a .152 ISO against them this season. But don’t let that fool you, he has a 42% hard contact rate against them this season, so some major positive regression should be coming to Longo against southpaws. Tonight he faces one of my most hated pitchers in the majors, Derek Holland. I hope Holland doesn’t troll me with this pick, but Evan is my man and has 9 hits in 28 ABs with 4 doubles and 3 HRs against Holland in his career. The Dutch Oven, as Holland calls himself, has a 43% hard contact rate allowed to RH bats this season along with a .363 wOBA and a 1.88 HR/9 rate.
Gregory Polanco – OF – Pittsburgh Pirates – $4,200
Analysis: Two starts ago, Edinson Volquez, the Pirates opponent tonight, won me a lot of money. Then I didn’t continue to ride the coattails and he pitched a no-hitter the following start. There’s no way I am not playing Pirates tonight against Volquez. I don’t know if he continues the hot hand, but there’s not way he throws another no-hitter. Enter my man, Polanco, a reliable outfielder with speed and power that no one ever plays in DFS. Sure, he hasn’t had the season he is capable of, but he’s been hurt and is still trying to find his groove. Hopefully that starts tonight against EV, who has given up 44% hard contact to lefties this season along with a .363 wOBA and a 1.14 HR/9 rate. Since 2016, Polanco has a .192 ISO and a 33% hard contact rate against RH pitching.
Odubel Herrera – OF – Philadelphia Phillies – $3,700
Analysis: More Odubel! This man is on fire right now and gets a ballpark boost in SunTrust Park in Atlanta. He’s coming in with a 6-game hitting streak, including 3 multi-hit games in that span. Tonight he’s up against knuckler and ageless one R.A. Dickey. But the BvP is solid here for Herrera and I like BvP numbers a lot against knuckleball pitchers. Against Dickey, Herrera is 2-for-5 with a HR and a walk. I am simply going to ride the hot streak and hope that knuckler doesn’t dance too much.
Matt Adams – 1B/OF – Atlanta Braves – $3,900
Analysis: Paid off yesterday, try it again today. Adams in SunTrust Park and under $4K is a near lock for me. The Braves are taking on Phillies’ gas can Alec Asher, who is an extreme fly ball pitcher and allows a 32% hard contact rate to lefties since 2016. Asher has some regression coming this season, and this ballpark likely won’t forgive Asher for any mistakes.
