Well, the vote didn’t come to the floor of the Texas Legislature Wednesday.
Not even a sniff about legalizing DFS in Texas.
So Thursday’s the last stand, and there’s only a hail mary’s chance it gets recognized for a potential vote.
I don’t know what happens if nothing comes out of Thursday’s session. I can’t imagine DraftKings wanting to continue fighting the battle for another two years, when the legislature meets again (2019).
I guess we can just cross our fingers, our eyes and toes and hope something good comes out of this.
But if it fails, the DFS community has our incompetent lawmakers to thank. Their hypocrisy is astounding already, and would be highlighted even more should they not at least consider making DFS legal considering Texas has a lottery system and allows betting on horse racing. Their definition of gambling “a game with partial chance…and house takes a cut” certainly applies to the lottery and freaking horse racing.
I can rant about this for days, so why not just focus to baseball while we can.
It’s a 9-game slate this evening and there are some potential spots for weather, including Texas, so keep that in mind as you make your selections today.
I can’t say I am in love with the pitching tonight either. We have some aces on the mound, but they aren’t in the greatest spots in the world. We have Coors, Chase Field, Globe Life Park, Yankee Stadium and the Rogers Centre all on the slate tonight, so there are some prime hitter’s venues to choose from as well.
Today is not premium content day, so you’re welcome!
Martin Perez – SP – Texas Rangers – $6,000
Analysis: Dallas Keuchel, Zack Greinke, Pineda, Fulmer, Cole, are the highest-priced pitchers on the slate. I would say Greinke feels the safest with Fulmer second. But with all the high-priced bats on the slate, we need some value. People will flock to Phil Hughes I am sure and I just might myself, but I like the spot for Martin Perez as well. People think Perez sucks, but I think he does just fine. He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher and that’s a good thing at Globe Life Park. He’s not a huge strike out guy either, but he gets a slight bump in K possibilities due to the matchup against the Padres, a team that is 28th in wOBA against lefties with very little power so far this season. They also strike out at a 22% clip against lefties. I think Perez is a decent punt SP2 on DraftKings. I wouldn’t even consider him on single-pitcher sites unless I felt a little yolo-esque. As I finished writing this, I noticed that Clayton Richard is starting this game opposite of Perez, not Chacin, and Richard is only $4,500 on DraftKings….
So with that said, Clayton Richard is now my official pick NOT Martin Perez.
Clayton Richard – SP – San Diego Padres – $4,500
Analysis: On this slate at $4,500, Richard allows you to play whomever you want. The Rangers are bad against lefties. They have a .252 wOBA, a .103 ISO and a 26% strikeout rate against lefties. Richard has a 6.20 K/9 rate and a 9.3% SwStr rate this season. He has a 4.13 SIERA, which isn’t awful considering the price, oh and he’s a very extreme ground ball pitcher, even better than Perez. Give me all I can handle here.
Carlos Correa – SS – Houston Astros – $4,600
Analysis: Michael Pineda has really pitched well this season especially at home, but his problem is still the home run ball. Pineda is tougher on lefties than he is on RH bats, and Correa just so happens to be a reverse-splits hitter taking his cuts in Yankee Stadium tonight. Correa is really starting to come around offensively with 13 hits in his last 10 games. Pineda owns a 2 HR/9 rate this season and it’s only slightly lower since 2016 combined. The Astros have been a more patient team this season and don’t strike out a ton, so I think he’s in trouble here.
Ian Desmond – OF – Colorado Rockies – $4,800
Analysis: Desmond has yet to hit a HR against a lefty this season and he faces one that has HR troubles in Coors Field. Since 2016, Desmond has a .361 wOBA, a .159 ISO and a 32% hard contact rate against southpaws. Up against Hyun-Jin Ryu, Desmond and the Rockies are in a great spot to launch some balls out of Coors. Ryu owns a .352 wOBA and a 2.37 HR/9 rate this season vs. right-handers. I think Desmond is a steal at $4,800, and hopefully he’s hitting cleanup or 2nd in tonight’s lineup.
Buster Posey – C – San Francisco Giants – $3,600
Analysis: You wouldn’t believe how many Buster Posey gifs there are and I’ve used quite a bit because Posey is one of my favorite DFS players. Usually, he is only in play against lefties most days, but there are exceptions, and that exception applies to tonight’s matchup against Bronson Arroyo. Not only is Posey, a catcher who sports a 34% hard contact rate against RH pitching since 2016 and a .421 wOBA against righties this season. Arroyo is a reverse-splits pitcher who struggles on the road. Arroyo owns a .421 wOBA against RH bats this season and has a 2.70 HR/9 rate as well. I am all in.
Miguel Sano – 3B – Minnesota Twins – $4,400
Analysis: Derek Holland was $8K on Wednesday’s slate, but this game was PPD. Now Holland is $5,200 for tonight’s slate…I mean, what’s more telling and favorable for the Twins than that? Sano has the BvP against Holland, who has pitched well this season, but his very low ERA (2.02) and his very high SIERA (4.37) paired with his 38% hard contact rate allowed suggest regression is inevitable. I think that regression starts tonight in a favorable hitter’s park in Chicago. Sano has been on fire over the past couple of weeks and has been crushing lefties this season to the tune of a .426 wOBA, a .290 ISO and a 41% hard contact rate against. Again, I am all in.
Kennys Vargas – 1B – Minnesota Twins – $3,900
Analysis: We finally have a spot to unleash the beast! Kennys Vargas vs. a southpaw. Since 2015, Vargas has a .406 wOBA, a .219 ISO and a 41% hard contact rate against lefties. I already talked about Holland, so need I say more?
